Jun 4: Sunday Stories
Day 465: Ze Zaporizhzhia Mar'ynka Krasnodar Kherson Prig Zatulin RUdomestic Tikhanova PlanBGrain Zagorodynuk JetCoalition Scholz Brexit KYR A&P UAWorld Hungary WSJ UKDef MacKay Aslund TheGaze Schmitt
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
See the top quotes from the Wall Street Journal interview below.
Stories we’re following…
Artillery and army aviation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces significantly intensified their activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during the last 24 hours, by carrying out 111 attacks on 22 towns and villages.
In the past month, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully neutralized Russian artillery (up to 1.5 divisions per day), significantly reducing the strike capability of Russian firepower in anticipation of a counteroffensive. The Russian naval group remains outside the firing range of the Ukrainian forces. 25 combat clashes took place in different directions.
The Russian invaders carried out offensive actions on Mar'yinka on June 2, but Ukrainian defenders repelled all 14 enemy attacks. In total the Russian forces conducted 67 air strikes and 17 missile strikes, and carried out 91 attacks from rocket salvo systems, as reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. Russian forces captured Masyutivka in Kharkiv Oblast.
Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reports that the railway track near Dolyns'ke was blown up. It was used to transport Russian personnel and military equipment to the front, but not anymore.
Exiled mayor: Car bombing targets 4 collaborators in Russian-occupied Mykhailivka. Four collaborators in Russian-occupied Mykhailivka were targeted by a car bombing, exiled Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on June 2.
Port in Russia's Krasnodar Krai to suspend export of highly-explosive material due to drone strike concerns. Russia's Taman Port is suspending exports of highly-explosive liquefied petroleum gas due to ongoing concerns over drone strikes, Reuters reported on June 2.
In Kherson Oblast, residents are required to obtain a Russian passport by September 1, 2023, with a mandatory written refusal of a Ukrainian passport. The Russian occupation authorities in Crimea are seizing real estate from Ukrainian citizens who do not have Russian passports.
Prigozhin accuses Russian Defense Ministry of placing mines along Wagner exit routes from Bakhmut in the post below. The process of replacing "Wagner" PMC units with units from the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District in Bakhmut is nearing completion, with the announced deadline set for June 5.
Russia failed to achieve any of the goals set by President Vladimir Putin during the invasion of Ukraine, acknowledged the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots, a member of United Russia, Konstantin Zatulin. He also said that Ukraine will not be able to survive as a nation without the support of the West.
It was officially announced that Russia was going to achieve “denazification, demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine”, as well as “protect” the inhabitants of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, the deputy recalled.
“On which of these points did we achieve results? None. Moreover, some of them have ceased to have any meaning. For example, the neutrality of Ukraine. What is the meaning of this requirement? None at the moment. It will not be neutral if it remains in existence,” Zatulin said.
A significant drop in prices has been recorded in the luxury real estate market in the suburbs of Moscow. Over the past year, prices for real estate have fallen by 45%, Russian Interfax reports. According to the Russian Inkom-Real Estate agency, the average house price decreased from 131.6 million to 72.1 million rubles. At the same time, in the economy class, which makes up 78% of the market, new housing prices increased by 20% - from 1.7 million to 2.1 million rubles.
Proekt released an investigation on June 1 about the short-lived union between “businessman” Nikolai Shamalov and Katerina Tikhonova, Vladimir Putin’s second daughter. Digging through leaked emails and telephone records, Proekt discovered that the couple never legally wed, despite a lavish wedding ceremony. In Putin’s family, such schemes to keep relationships off the books are a common means of concealing affluence. This is especially true when it comes to the properties scattered outside the presidential residence in Novo-Ogaryovo — an array of mansions that Proekt calls Putin’s own “royal village”.
Danilov: Russian Shahed drones contain parts made by Ukraine's allies. Parts produced by Ukraine's allies were found in Iranian-made Shahed drones, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said on June 3. Danilov said Ukraine "found parts there that are not produced either in Iran or in Russia."
Zelensky on counteroffensive: 'This is not a movie.' During a press conference on June 2, President Volodymyr Zelensky fielded questions about Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive, emphasizing that it's "not a movie" and it was difficult to describe in advance to the public how it will proceed.
Ukraine has a "plan B" in case Russia withdraws from the grain deal, as announced by the Minister of Agriculture of Ukraine Mykola Solsky to Reuters. According to him, Kyiv will offer insurance guarantees to companies so that they continue deliveries without Russia's participation in the new deal. "Plan B... eliminates the fourth party (Russia) in this relationship," he said. Solsky said the government has already set up a special insurance fund of about $547 million for companies whose ships will call at Ukrainian Black Sea ports under the new agreement.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk (CDS) argued in Foreign Affairs that Ukraine should join NATO without delay but acknowledged that it is unlikely to happen shortly. He called on NATO governments to move beyond vague promises and focus on specific actions to support Ukraine's membership. He believes that "now is the time for NATO to start strengthening itself and bringing in Ukraine is essential to accomplishing this task. No state, after all, knows more about how to fight back against the Kremlin. In fact, no country has more current experience fighting large-scale wars anywhere. Ukraine's only peer is Russia itself."
Dr Ben Schmitt: “At GLOBSEC2023, I argued that countering Russian energy weaponization means countering its strategic corruption & elite capture as well. Transatlantic community must pass laws to end ability of former officials to work for Authoritarian regimes & state owned enterprises”
Fighter jet coalition helping Ukraine now includes 9 countries. The coalition to provide Ukraine with fighter jets now includes 8 European countries, and more countries may join, online newspaper Yevropeiska Pravda reported on June 2, citing Ihor Zhovkva, a presidential deputy chief of staff.
German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius reiterated his cautious stance on providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine during a meeting in Cologne. He stated that his position on the matter remains unchanged.
EU allocates $54 million to Ukraine for provisional bridges. The European Investment Bank (EIB) will allocate 50 million euros to Ukraine's State Agency for the Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure for the purchase of provisional bridges, the agency announced on June 2.
Kyrgyzstan’s president said on Saturday that his ex-Soviet republic was ready to work with the EU. President Sadyr Japarov, whose country is an ally of Moscow, said: “Kyrgyzstan is ready to work hand in hand with the European Union to resolve shared problems, encourage dialogue and find lasting solutions.”
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz is unrecognizable from his former spring 2022 self. He’s being heckled at a Social Democratic Party rally in Berlin. He lets loose on the crowd as I’ve never seen him before. A group of around 100 people there began calling Scholz a warmonger. What the video for his response.
German foreign minister: 'International law is clear' regarding need to arrest war criminals. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that "international law is clear" regarding war criminals and called on South Africa to adhere to it if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin attended the upcoming BRICS summit, Zeit reported on June 2.
SBU: Kolomoisky's purported business partner exposed in Ukrtatnafta embezzlement scandal. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on June 2 that it had exposed Mykhailo Kiperman, one of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky's business partners, for embezzling nearly Hr 600 million ($16 million) from the oil refining company Ukrtatnafta.
On the BBC’s Question Time, Chris Patten lists what has happened to Brexit Britain. Christopher Patten is a member of the House of Lords, Chancellor of Oxford University and former BBC Trust Chairman.
Blinken unplugged
In case you missed this moment in Secretary Blinken’s address at the Helsinki City Hall on Friday, here it is. Measuring words is part of diplo-speak, and rightly so for so many reasons. Blinken is candid in his assessment of Russia’s military power, echoing what Russianists, examining the level of corruption in that country’s arms industry, have been saying for quite some time.
Hungary: a foot in both camps
The Hungarian government published a video calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Let’s see if it shows up on one of Russia’s talk shows: in the video, a map shows Crimea as Russian territory and the Russian flag is at the centre of a negotiating table.
“Tens of thousands of children have been orphaned, hundreds of thousands of homes have been destroyed, more than ten million people have been forced to leave their homes, but the war continues and could easily become global. No more war, only a ceasefire can end the devastation, only peaceful negotiations can save lives. It's time for peace," the video says. [Translation: Meduza]
It seems as though Hungary, lead by Viktor Orbàn, feels it can ride out the war by keeping its loyalties to Russia, and its obligations to European Union and NATO allies.
In the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Hungary has provided 47 million euro in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and hosted Ukrainian displaced persons. According to documents obtained by Politico, it may also be allowing the transit of military aid through its airspace despite its public promises to ban such transfers. In late April 2023, a video emerged showing French military helicopters being delivered to the Ukrainian border police via Győr-Pér airport in Western Hungary in February 2023. Atlatszo reports that “Radarbox has recorded 22 military transport missions involving Hungary. The military aircraft heading to Rzeszów [Poland] have not only crossed Hungarian airspace, but also used Hungarian airports”. The Hungarian MoD has denied it is allowing its airspace to be used for transit of military aid.
At the same time, the Orbàn governmnet has condemned the war without stating that Russia is the aggressor, pushed for peace negotiations from a Russo-centric position, refused to supply Ukraine with weapons directly, threatened to veto certain EU sanctions against Moscow, such as the ones related to nuclear energy, and held up adopting a major 18 billion euro EU funding package to Kyiv.
Hungary’s bipolar behaviour may be dictated by the need to balance its long-standing relationship with Russia, its obligations as a NATO member, and access to EU funding.
Top quotes from President Zelensky’s interview with WSJ
On the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “I believe that today we are ready to do this. We would like to have some things [weapons] at our disposal, but we cannot wait for them for months. We really believe in success, I don't know how long it will take us."
On the behavior of Vladimir Putin: “A hunted beast, he is afraid of losing his life. He must fear the power of the world. He understands strength. If we are talking about the isolation of the Russian Federation, the circle of these people, then we need to do it powerfully.”
On the Patriot system: “Today [it] is the only weapon capable of stopping some of the missiles that Russia uses against our population, schools, infrastructure, energy system. The only system in the world is the Patriot. <...> The reality is this: [Ukraine needs] 50 Patriot batteries - and in most cases people will not die.”
On the NATO summit in Vilnius and Ukraine's entry into the alliance: “If they don't see us [in NATO] and don't give some kind of signal in Vilnius, I think Ukraine has nothing to do at this summit. <...> We understand that we will not be in NATO or any other defensive alliance while the war is going on. But tell me, how many lives is worth one phrase at the Vilnius summit: “Ukraine will be in NATO after this war”?”
Trump: More classified docs—WaPo
Donald Trump was caught on tape talking about classified documents. The recording is from 2021. The former president appears to brag about having a document related to Iran, The Post reported yesterday. The audio suggests that Trump understood the legal and security issues around having such restricted information. Trump is under investigation for potentially mishandling government information. Hundreds of classified documents were found at his Florida home last year. Trump has maintained he hasn’t done anything wrong by taking classified documents with him after he left office, but it’s possible this audio undercuts that — in his own words.
Programming note
The State Enterprise Multimedia Platform for Foreign Languages of Ukraine has launched The Gaze YouTube channel about Ukraine for English-speaking audiences. The channel introduces the Western audience to "the phenomenon of the countries of the new Europe and Ukraine as its component, with its people, history, nature, culture, politics, economy and influence on the global future," the Culture and Information Policy Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said.