Jun 5: E-Stories
Day 466: Kyiv Dnipro Kropyvnytskyy RUSitRep Dzhanhoi Melitopol PDC Zapo $67B Tinkoff 76% Kirby Kuleba Orbàn Ollengren A&P Zelensky UKDef MacKay Borrell Avdeeva Rosenberg Michta WSJ Battistini
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelensky posted this video on his official Telegram channel during the night on June 3. The russian forces hit between two 2-story residential buildings. There are people under the rubble. “13-year-old Dmytro from Kharkiv, 4-year-old Lisa from Vinnytsia, Serhii from Novosolone who was just 2 days old. They are among five hundred innocent children whose lives were destroyed by Russia's onslaught.”
Stories we’re following…
Russia launched a wave of air attacks on Ukraine early on Sunday, with air defence systems repelling all missiles and drones on their approach to Kyiv, the city’s military officials said. Reuters reports that the capital’s military administration chief, Serhiy Popko, said that according to initial information, “not a single air target reached the capital”.
A two-year-old girl was killed and 22 people injured when an airstrike hit a residential district in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, officials said on Sunday. The Russian forces destroyed a pair of two-storey buildings as well as 10 private homes, a shop and a gas pipeline, according to the region’s governor.
On the night of June 4, two Russian cruise missiles hit the operational airfield near Kropyvnytskyy in the Kirovohrad region, Yury Ignat, speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on air. "The cruise missiles did not destroy everything, four out of six were destroyed. Unfortunately, they hit the operational airfield near Kropyvnytskyi," he said (cited by Ukrayinska Pravda).
As a good friend told me on Sunday…”plans love silence”.
Over the past day, Russian armed forces shelled nine regions of Ukraine, killing and injuring Ukrainian civilians. The enemy's "West" grouping will attempt to gain control over the R-07 highway between Kupyansk and Novoselivka. The immediate priority is to restore the defensive positions along the Oskil River between Kupyansk and Borova. Their objective is to disrupt the Defense Forces' defenses along the Oskil River, stretching from north to south in the region between Dvorichna and Kupyansk.
How many forces have the Russians along the line of contact? The Russian "West" grouping of forces is comparatively the smallest among the enemy's established groups, comprising approximately 50,000 servicemen. In contrast, the "South" and "East" groupings consist of around 108,000 and 87,000 personnel, respectively.
The Russian forces are concentrating its main efforts on defensive operations in all directions, attempting to complete the capture of Maryinka and locally improve its tactical position on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, and Maryinka directions. There were 29 combat clashes on various fronts.
5 drones were shot down and 4 were jammed in Dzhankoi in Crimea, a Russian-installed official in the annexed peninsula said on Sunday. Reuters reports that Oleg Kryuchkov, an adviser in the Moscow-installed administration of Crimea, said that “there is damage to windows in several houses in a residential district” from the overnight incident.
Exiled mayor: At least 6 explosions heard near occupied Melitopol. A least six explosions were heard near Russian-occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ivan Fedorov, the city's exiled mayor, reported on June 3. One of the explosions was reported at a railway near Melitopol, which Russian forces had reportedly been using to transport military equipment and personnel. Fedorov did not provide further details.
In Svatove district of Luhansk region, on June 2, about 40 militants of an armed formation of the Russian terrorist state voluntarily left their combat positions and deserted.
Shelling continues on the Belgorod front. The Polish Volunteer Corps confirmed participation in the raid in the Belgorod region. Representatives of the PDC published a video from the Graivoron border crossing on their channel. According to Polish citizens allegedly fighting on the side of Ukraine, they participated in clashes with the Russian army along with the Russian Volunteer Corps. I’m posting this information, but I’ll be verifying it through multiple sources.
Stefania Battistini, reporting for RAI-1 news on the Ukrainian-Russian border at Volchansk, which has been a living hell under Russian bombardments since it’s liberation in November 2022. This is the last Ukrainian town before the border with Russia.
Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast withhold insulin to residents who refuse Russian passports. Withholding medical services is being used as a coercion tactic to force residents in Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast to become Russian passport holders, according to the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center.
According to the Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, cases of people being kidnapped have seen a significant increase in the temporarily occupied city. "We see that every day up to 10 people are taken captive. It includes various categories, from pensioners and journalists to students," he said. Additionally, there have been reports of people's phones and tattoos being checked.
Kremlin bans Western journalists from Russian Economic Forum. No journalists from what Moscow deems "unfriendly countries" will be allowed to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Russian state-controlled Tass news agency on June 3.
The Economist estimated that Russia's annual expenditure on the war amounts to approximately $67 billion (equivalent to 3% of GDP). While this figure may seem modest in historical context, it significantly surpasses the 0.4% of GDP that the Soviet Union spent on its military engagement in Afghanistan, which played a role in the downfall of the Empire of Evil.
From June 5, Tinkoff Bank introduces a commission of 1% for replenishing accounts in US dollars and euros, the credit institution said in a statement. The commission will affect payment card holders with the TPS 3.0 tariff plan in US dollars and euros when replenishing an account through ATMs and Tinkoff services, as well as through a bank's cash and collection center, if the deposit currency matches the currency of the account being replenished.
The majority of Russians (76%) support the war against Ukraine and that it's successful (61%), according to a Levada Centre poll. The data shows that this figure has remained relatively stable since April, with a slight decrease of 4% compared to March of the previous year – the beginning of the all-out invasion. Only eighteen percent of Russians do not support the war, with the highest level of non-support (21%) observed in September, following Ukraine's successful liberation of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
Estonian PM: NATO threatens Russia's imperialism, not its security. Speaking to the media from a security conference in Singapore, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that Russia's narrative that NATO had a role to play in its invasion of Ukraine sees a great deal of play in Asia and must be refuted.
Maria Avdeeva: This video makes me sick. Russian military talking about denazification of Ukraine in front of kidnapped Ukrainian orphans. Many of them have lost both parents because of Russia.
The White House and the US State Department oppose concessions to Ukrainian lands for the sake of "peace", - White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby stated on June 3.
We will support the efforts of any country if they help find a path to a lasting peace consistent with the principles of the UN Charter. But we cannot and will not support calls for a ceasefire that will simply freeze existing front lines. Demarcation will legitimize the Russian seizure of territories and allow Putin to tighten his control over the regions he has already conquered.
Ukraine’s reaction to Orbàn’s video: "Hungary should stop making provocations and adhere to the international obligations undertaken within the framework of membership in the U.N., E.U., and NATO. Playing along with the aggressive policy of Russia does not contribute to the faster restoration of peace in Europe, which the Hungarian government publicly advocates," the MFA's statement reads.
The Hungarian leadership suffers from a "Trianon malaise" and can't accept the fact that the Austro-Hungarian Empire is a thing of the past. The Trianon Treaty of 1920 put an end to the World War I part between the Allies and the Kingdom of Hungary. In the modern context, a Greater Hungary map is a political statement that rejects the U.N.-based international system, the Helsinki Final Act principles, and Hungary's commitments to the E.U. and NATO.
Dutch defense minister: Chinese diplomat's view on Ukraine 'very, very false'. In an interview with Politico on June 3, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren dismissed a Chinese diplomat's claim that Russia’s war against Ukraine was caused by the so-called failure of Europe's security architecture.
Spokeswoman: Washington more focused on military aid than NATO accession for Ukraine. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre avoided a question on June 3 on U.S. support for Ukraine's NATO accession, saying that Washington believes in an open-door policy for the alliance but is currently focused more on providing tangible aid to Ukraine.
Steve Rosenberg’s report from Moscow
Moscow casts the West as Russia’s enemy. But do Russians really believe that? In Yaroslavl I gauge the strength of anti-Western feeling & the mood outside Moscow more than 15 months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Camera Anton Chicherov, Producer Liza Shuvalova
Latest from Russian state programming
Every evening, extremist rhetoric takes centre stage on Russian screens, and fed to the citizens of the federation. In this clip a young man is advocating the further repression of dissenting voices against the war, and literally mentions using Soviet methods. What struck me was the total disregard for an individual’s right to dissent, and how he supports a totalitarian view of his nation.
Andrew A. Michta on a system-transforming war
A few thoughts as I head back to the Oslo airport after the Equinor-nupinytt political risk forum on long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine. First, I am even more convinced that this is a system-transforming war. Countries close to Russia get it (Norway included).
Second, regardless of whether the war in Ukraine ends soon or lasts for years, we are only in an early stage of this systemic transformation that will gain speed as de-globalization accelerates. The process will test the relative strength and expose weaknesses of states.
Beyond the traditional indicators of economic and military power, weakness in several areas will play an outsize role, as states mobilize and prepare for intense confrontation, possibly war. One key area will be the overall societal cohesion and resilience of countries.
Ukraine has shown us the critical importance of national cohesion, unity and patriotism which in turn generate a”defense mindset” across society, i.e., perseverance, resilience and the will to fight against all odds. So l ask: How resilient are we relative to our enemies?
Ukraine has also shown the critical importance of leadership. President Zelenskyy of Ukraine has shown courage, determination and an unyielding sense of purpose. His decision to stay in Kyiv to rally his nation while hurling defiance at the Russians has been decisive.
So I ask: How many leaders do we have across the West with that kind of intestinal fortitude and courage? Do our nations have a “defense mindset” and determination to fight? Do Western societies still believe in the mutuality of obligation that’s foundational in a democracy?
Russia and China are clear about what they want. Russia wants to revise the post-Cold War settlement and restore its former empire. China wants to replace the US as the greatest power in the world, and build a new global system centered around its interests and principles.
So I ask: What do WE want? We talk about “preserving the rules-based international order.” But what does this mean exactly? What does winning look like in geopolitical terms? How are our alliances to be restructured? What do we want the world to look like in a generation?
The last 30yrs were what I call the “era of institutionalists,” whereby the post-historical world was to be reordered through norms and rules. It was a fantasy. We are back in a world of geopolitics and state-on-state war, and yet we still talk the institutionalist language.
We are headed for a period of protracted global instability where regional balances will be key. We need to relearn the language of geopolitics and hard power. We need to articulate OUR vision of the world in 30 yrs in concrete geopolitical terms to guide our policies.
Programming note
WSJ’s Breakdown of Russia’s defensive positions in the up-coming Ukrainian counteroffensive. The CDS Daily Brief has outlined these developments over time. WSJ has put it all together.