Jun 7: E-Stories
Day 468: Kharkiv Kherson Belgorod ZNPP Kakhova HPP Melitopol Kadyrov RUplanes sanctions Milley EU Australia Finland Zuppi Orban India PutinFake A&Ps Ukraine Hertling UKDef ISW Lautman Avdeeva Tillman
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: 35 cruise missiles shot down overnight in Ukraine. Russia launched 35 cruise missiles in a night attack against Ukraine on June 6, all of which were shot down by air defense, Ukraine's Air Force reported.
While attention has understandably focused on the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, clear-up operations have also been carried out in Kharkiv after a Russian strike around midnight on June 5, Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on Telegram.
For the second time in two days, the Russian military shelled an ammonia pipeline in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration on Telegram. On 5 June, the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration reported about the damage to the pipeline of ammonia due to the Russian shelling.
Interior Ministry: Russian forces attack Kherson as rescue workers evacuate civilians. Two Kherson police officers were injured by Russian artillery fire while trying to evacuate civilians from flooding caused by Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Interior Ministry reported on June 6.
Ukrainian forces advance on eastern front. Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the eastern front and made several advances in certain areas on June 5, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported.
Intelligence: Senior Russian officer killed in Belgorod Oblast. Ukraine's military intelligence reported that a senior Russian officer was killed in Belgorod Oblast on June 5. The 52-year-old Colonel Andrei Vasilyevich Stesyev was killed in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka.
Minus a handful of people I highly doubt anyone has details of the counteroffensive plan as it should be. We will see it when we see it and Ukraine will prevail.
Russia brings spy squads into occupied Melitopol. Spy squads from Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) have arrived in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast to search for pro-Ukrainian residents, exiled Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on June 5.
Wheat prices rise after Kakhovka dam explosion. Wheat prices rose by 3% after the explosion of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, according to the market data tracking service Barchart Trader. The price is now at $6,4 per bushel.
Chechen leader Kadyrov claims readiness to defend Belgorod Oblast against raids. Chechen Republoic Head Ramzan Kadyrov announced that Chechen forces are fully prepared to protect against potential raids in Belgorod Oblast, possibly as a means to keep his troops out of active combat in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War latest assessment.
The leaders of the largest airlines have come to the conclusion that the airspace over Russia will not open in the near future. This was announced to CNN at the annual general meeting of the International Air Transport Association. “The idea that Russian airspace will be open in the near future, I don’t think it will be possible, so we will have to put up with it. Choose a longer route between Europe and Asia and I think this will have some impact for some time,” said IATA CEO Willie Walsh.
Key executives at JSC Polymetal, Russia's largest silver producer and one of the largest gold miners, have stepped down, the company announced on Monday. Vitaly Nesis, chief executive officer, and Maxim Nazimok, chief financial officer, have resigned from all senior positions in the Russian division of Polymetal, which came under US sanctions in May.
Due to mass emigration of Russians because of the war with Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs proposed the creation of an institution of "repatriation" in order to attract compatriots from abroad to the country. Repatriates will be exempted from the need to confirm knowledge of the Russian language, since they will be considered persons "having a strong cultural connection with Russia." In addition, they will be given the right to obtain a residence permit without first obtaining a temporary residence permit.
Ukraine calls for new sanctions against Russia after Kakhovka dam explosion. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry urged the countries of the G7 and the European Union to immediately consider new sanctions against Russia after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on June 6.
The senior US military leader, chair of the joint chiefs General Mark Milley, says that while few conclusions can be drawn from an increase of fighting in Ukraine, the country is ‘well prepared’ to carry on the battle against the Russian invasion.
There’s activity throughout Russian-occupied Ukraine and fighting has picked up.
It’s our estimation that the Ukrainian military is well prepared for whatever they do. They choose to fight in the offensive fight or in the defense, they’re well-prepared.
Like the battle of Normandy or any other major battle, warfare is a give and take. There will be days you see a lot of activity and there will be days you may see very little activity.
There will be offensive actions and defense actions. So this will be a back-and-forth fight for a considerable length of time.
US to provide Ukraine with $37 million in cybersecurity assistance. The U.S. government is working with Congress to deliver $37 million in cybersecurity assistance to Ukraine, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry announced on June 5.
European Commission to ease restrictions on agricultural imports from Ukraine.The European Commission is set to extend the ban on agricultural imports from Ukraine, but the restrictions will apply to a smaller number of products, European Pravda reported on June 5 with reference to its sources.
Ukraine to receive ‘significant number’ of F-16 fighter jets. President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press conference that Ukraine will receive a "significant number" of F-16 fighter jets, based on discussions with European partners, Suspilne reported on June 6.
Germany will not send Taurus missiles but reconsidering fighter jets for Ukraine. Germany does not plan to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles but "may reconsider its position" on providing modern Western fighter jets, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Deutsche Welle on June 5.
Australia considers sending F/A-18 fighter jets to Ukraine. Australia may send its 41 retired F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine, the Australian Financial Review reported on June 6. Canberra is reportedly discussing this possibility with the American and Ukrainian partners.
Reuters reports that Finland will expel nine diplomats working at the Russian embassy in Helsinki, accusing them of working on intelligence missions. “Their actions are contrary to the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations,” the president’s office said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that it would inform the Russian ambassador of the expulsions.
President Zelensky has posted to Telegram to say that he met with the Pope’s peace envoy Cardinal Matteo Zuppi in Kyiv. Ukraine’s president wrote:
We discussed the situation in Ukraine and humanitarian cooperation in the framework of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. Only united efforts, diplomatic isolation and pressure on Russia can influence the aggressor and bring a just peace to the Ukrainian land.
I call on the Holy See to contribute to the implementation of the Ukrainian peace plan. Ukraine welcomes the readiness of other states and partners to find ways to peace, but since the war is on our territory, the algorithm for achieving peace can be Ukrainian only.
Orban meets Rosatom's director, discuss nuclear energy cooperation. The director of Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, arrived in Budapest for talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the news portal Telex reported on June 5.
Russia continues to lose ground in the arms market to India, which has been the Kremlin's largest arms buyer since Soviet times and has provided 20% of Rosoboronexport's orders in recent years. Having abandoned contracts for Su-30MKI fighters and T-90 tanks, and then freezing negotiations on the purchase of Ka-226T helicopters, India said no to another Russian proposal - the construction of submarines based on the Amur-1650 platform, the export version of submarines. project project 677 "Lada"
Dangerous encounters by US and Chinese militaries look set to continue, after a Chinese warship came within 150 yards of a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday and forced it to slow down. The US has accused China of military 'aggressiveness'.
Mark Hertling: What happens next?
Any commander will make an assessment of their force and the enemy’s force. There are “indicators” as to what will be outcomes when the two meet.
One area I always watch: Overt show of confidence…in people, leaders, equipment, plan. Not cockiness or swagger, confidence. The “hush” video posted by Ukraine is a reflection of this.
No bragging, no bluster, no indicators of what is happening…just a nuanced “we’re ready, and we’re about to go.” You never underestimate your enemy, but you must be confident in your potential.
Compare that to what’s happening on the Russian side, today:
—more messaging by Prigozhin about dysfunction in Russian govt and military;
—Russian mutineers killing commander before deserting;
—anti-Putin militias continue attack in Shebekino and beyond.
These “indicators” show a vast difference between solid Ukraine confidence and increasing Russian chaos.
This interview with CIA Director Burns on the anniversary of the invasion last Feb has been on my mind. “Leaders” with hubris and cockiness aren’t leaders.
The upcoming Ukraine operation will be challenging and tough. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will be on a large offensive with new equipment going against Russian defensive positions that have been reinforced for 6 months. But without trained and well-led soldiers overwatching obstacles, Russian defenses are useless.
Any attacking force is either “force” or “terrain” oriented. That is, they are either given a mission to
attack an enemy force to destroy/defeat it, or
to seize ground (capture areas, interfere w/ enemy movement/resupply, regain desired terrain for future operations)
The upcoming Ukrainian offensive, in my honest opinion, will have elements of both.
What will be interesting is to see how the Ukrainian Armed Forces have “task organized” (that is, places different equipment & types of units) in which areas of the front. This is a hedge, but there is potential for several approaches:
—multiple efficient and effective combined arms “heavy” units conducting breaches and bypasses of Russian defenses in key areas, regaining a lot of ground with SOF and territorials striking in the rear areas.
—a more methodical breach operations, massing heavy (armored) forces in fewer areas, with the idea of breaking through the front & breaking supply lines and encircling Russian forces, while other “lighter” (infantry in “battlefield taxis”) break through and seize key terrain.
—multiple axis of advance across the front with smaller armor and light forces threatening several areas, with a large reserve ready to exploit success.
Those - and perhaps a few others I could provide but won’t - are all potential courses of action (COA’s).
But now, I’ll repeat what I’ve said so many times before:
—any of these COAs require extensive preparation of routes, synchronization of units, and intelligence/reconnaissance;
—MOST IMPORTANTLY, all require extensive resupply and logistics planning and execution.
None of us - NONE - know how this will occur, or when, or with what forces, or which branches and sequels follow, or the results.
At the beginning of this war, in February 22, I found it easy to predict the Ukrainian Armed Forces would persevere. I don’t have a clue what will happen next.
But I do believe Ukraine will retake ground and will continue to persevere.
Putin calls for general mobilisation…not.
In several regions of Russia, the “Putin’s address” on the martial law in the border regions was broadcast on the radio.
“Russians, fellow citizens, brothers and sisters. Today at 4 am, Ukrainian troops armed by the NATO bloc, with the consent and support of Washington, invaded the territory of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions. Our border guards and armed forces give a worthy rebuff to the superior forces of the aggressor. On the territory of the Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk regions, martial law was introduced by my decree. Also today I will sign a decree on general mobilization, since in order to defeat a dangerous and insidious enemy, we will need to unite all the forces of the Russian Federation, ”the appeal said, which was heard by residents of the Rostov , Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the state broadcaster appeared to be hacked and this wasn’t Putin but a deep fake.