June 16: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks kill at least 3, injure 11 across Ukraine over past day. According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russia launched 58 attack drones, primarily Shahed-type UAVs, and decoys from multiple directions.
Russian shelling kills 1 in Kherson, mass attack hits infrastructure in Poltava Oblast. Of the 183 drones Russia launched, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 159, Ukraine’s Air Force said. Ukraine also shot down 2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles and six out of eight cruise missiles.
During the early hours of Sunday night, Russian forces launched a massive attack on Kremenchuk, Poltava region, reportedly the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Regional Administration said. The city was struck simultaneously by Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, causing multiple explosions and widespread fires.
Ukraine, Russia conduct fourth prisoner exchange this week. "Today, among those returning to Ukraine, many have been in captivity since 2022," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Russia transfers 50 Ukrainian children to so-called 'rehab camp' in Kalmykia, Kyiv says. Russia has transferred 50 children from the occupied Antratsyt district of Luhansk Oblast to a so-called rehabilitation camp in Kalmykia, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation reported on June 14.
Alexander Khara, a former senior advisor at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense spoke with Radio Free Europe’s Georgian Service, warning that proposed Western concessions—whether recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, freezing NATO expansion, or easing sanctions— would not bring peace but instead “open the door to global chaos.” And if Trump believes he can simply charm Vladimir Putin into a deal, Khara says, he is deluding himself.
Putin will feel compelled to respond. He does need to project strength. Only, now, he’s increasingly unable to do so. He’s not able to do anything more than he’s doing. Yes, he can send more drones, more missiles – rain down more terror on Ukrainian civilians and cities, but he has already been doing that for a long time now.
The only escalation option left to him— nuclear weapons—is highly unlikely. There’s no military need, and it would provoke a predictable backlash from key allies like China, a major supporter of Russia in this war, or Iran.
Conventional strikes face simple math: you need platforms to launch missiles. Our attacks on their strategic and tactical bombers have reduced that capacity. They can still harass us, but we’ve created a bottleneck—and proved Ukraine still has cards to play.
Operation SpiderWeb: We showed that we are not losing this war—and that’s hugely important. Yes, Russians are making gains in the East, and now they’re trying to push into Sumy region. And for outsiders—for those without a military background—it might look like Ukraine is losing. Which then leads to this dangerous argument: “Maybe then it’s time to just accept whatever terms Russia puts forward, before it gets even worse.”
But operations like this prove otherwise. They show we have asymmetric tools to fight this war. And more importantly, that we’re not going to stop, give up. I believe it will change minds in the West—especially in Europe.
People are beginning to understand that Russia was never interested in a ceasefire—let alone peace talks or a peace agreement. All this time, they’ve been preparing for a summer offensive. And it might have already begun, starting with Sumy. It’s not yet a full-scale push, but they could escalate. [continue reading]
Combat Situation
ISW: Russian forces continue to make marginal territorial gains east of Novopavlivka as Russian forces attempt to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward the settlement from three tactical directions.
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia's defense industrial base.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.
President Zelensky announced the liberation of Andriivka in Sumy oblast.
On June 14, Ukrainian intelligence operatives reportedly conducted a sabotage operation in Kaliningrad, disabling a key industrial power substation. Agents drained coolant from a transformer and set the facility on fire, causing major damage and cutting electricity to nearby Russian military and defense industry sites.
The Russians have been poisoning Ukrainian military personnel with chemical weapons in the Siversk direction for three weeks in a row, — press service of the "Rubizh" brigade NGU.
Ukraine aims to boost drone intercept capabilities after record Russian attacks. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said he held a meeting focused on strengthening defenses against Russian strike drones, particularly Iranian-designed Shahed drones used by Russian forces to target Ukrainian cities.
Drone threat in Tatarstan: Airports in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk have suspended all arrivals and departures following a UAV alert at 06:30. Locals report sightings in Chistopol and Yelabuga (video), the latter known for hosting a major Shahed drone production facility.
Behind the Lines
Turkey will increase the cost of passage of ships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits by 15% to $5.83 from July 1, said the republic's transport minister, Abdulkadir Uraloglu. This will be the fourth increase since 2022, when the price is expected to increase more than sevenfold.
"We have regularly increased the value of the gold franc, which has remained constant at $0.8 for 39 years until 2022, every year. With this year's increase, we will increase the toll by 7.2 times compared to the period until 2022," Uraloglu said (quoted by NTV). The minister explained the increase by current gold prices. Since the fall of 2022, it has continued to gradually increase and as of June 13, it is $3,320 per ounce.
Politico EU: The Baltic countries on Friday signed a deal pledging to jointly plan for mass evacuations as the specter of bellicose Russian President Vladimir Putin looms over the region. The interior ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia committed to develop joint mass evacuation plans, streamline information exchange and ensure vulnerable groups are not left behind during evacuations.
A Russian agent has been detained in Rivne Oblast for collecting coordinates for a Russian air attack on operational airfields and logistics warehouses belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as reported by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU).
Russia's order was executed by a 24-year-old local unemployed man who was recruited on Telegram by Ilya Kudryavtsev, a staff member of the Central Directorate of the Russian Federal Security Service.
After being recruited, he received instructions to search for military facilities, conduct reconnaissance "on the ground" and transmit coordinates. To complete the task, the suspect installed a hidden camera in his car, drove around the area and recorded the locations of the Ukrainian defence forces on a video device.
A moment of levity: Waiting for Season 5 to be released in September.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Rosatom and China's CNNC to Lead Consortiums for NPP Construction in Kazakhstan. Russian and Chinese state nuclear companies Rosatom and CNNC will lead consortiums to build two nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Kazakhstan, Reuters reported, citing the Kazakhstan Atomic Energy Agency.
“Currently, in accordance with Rosatom’s proposals, work has begun on the issue of attracting state export financing at the expense of the Russian Federation,” the agency’s report says.
The Atomic Energy Agency said it would continue working with foreign partners to form “an effective international consortium for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan.” It is not yet clear which companies will join the consortiums, how much the first and second nuclear power plants will cost, and the construction timeframe.
Reuters: The renewed U.S.-China trade truce struck in London left a key area of export restrictions tied to national security untouched, an unresolved conflict that threatens a more comprehensive deal, two people briefed on detailed outcomes of the talks told Reuters.
Beijing has not committed to grant export clearance for some specialized rare-earth magnets that U.S. military suppliers need for fighter jets and missile systems, the people said. The United States maintains export curbs on China's purchases of advanced artificial intelligence chips out of concern that they also have military applications.
At talks in London last week, China's negotiators appeared to link progress in lifting export controls on military-use rare earth magnets with the longstanding U.S. curbs on exports of the most advanced AI chips to China. That marked a new twist in trade talks that began with opioid trafficking, tariff rates and China's trade surplus, but have since shifted to focus on export controls.
Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó now claims there’s a secret “von der Leyen–Zelensky plan” to destroy Central Europe’s economy—because supporting Ukraine and reducing energy dependence on Russia is apparently a conspiracy. He also thanked Slovakia for sharing Budapest’s concerns.
Slovak PM Fico said that Slovakia will ask to postpone the vote on the new EU sanctions package against Russia until the gas supply issue is discussed. He noted that Slovakia wants to know what guarantees it will have of sufficient gas reserves and the absence of a rapid increase in prices for households. "Slovakia has no reason to suffer because of Ukraine," he said.
In Europe…
POLITICO EU: Germany’s economy is set to outpace earlier growth forecasts over the next couple of years, according to two top economic institutes.
The forecasts from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the ifo Institute don’t come as a complete surprise, considering the new German government recently pledged a big boost in spending. But they are a welcome change after years of stagnation and contraction caused by successive shocks like the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine.
“The downturn appears to have bottomed out,” said Stephan Kooths, head of forecasting at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, known by its German acronym IfW. He added that after two tough years, private consumption and corporate investment are beginning to pick up.
Macron in Greenland: Helicopter arrived at the frigate Niels Juel transporting France president Macron. Nuuk, Greenland. Macron says FR opening a consulate in Greenland, gets cheers and applause. He’s also there to ensure there is "no preying" on the autonomous Danish territory, the first such trip by a foreign leader since US President Donald Trump's threats to seize it.
Chancellor Merz: The world's seven largest industrialized nations are united and capable of taking action. This is the most important goal of the G7 summit in Canada, which I am now departing for. Friends can talk openly. This exchange is a core value of the G7.
Donald Tusk: “Iran has opted for authoritarianism, a religious state and an anti-Western course. Poland for democracy, a free economy and Europe. We started from a similar point, we without gas and oil, they without freedom. For all supporters of a radical change of course, for consideration.”
PM Keir Starmer and PM Mark Carney, spoke about slashing trade barriers between their two countries Sunday. Starmer told journalists en route to Canada for the G7 that he wants to “increase our trade with Canada and I will be discussing how we do so with Mark Carney.” The pair met in Ottawa for a full bilateral meeting on Sunday morning following a private dinner Saturday night.
In other news…
CNN: The search is still ongoing: Police continue their manhunt for 57-year-old Vance Boelter, the suspect in the killing of a Minnesota lawmaker and the shooting of another.
A man dressed like a police officer came out of Hortman’s home and shot at police before escaping. He had been driving what appeared to be a police car. Investigators found a hit list of nearly 70 names in the suspect’s car, mostly naming Democrats or figures with ties to abortion rights.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says he expects to meet with congressional leadership in both parties to discuss heightened security for lawmakers after the assassination of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband.
US President Donald Trump told ABC News that he is "open" to Vladimir Putin's possible involvement as a mediator in resolving the conflict between Israel and Iran. "He ( Putin - TMT) is ready. He called me about it. We had a long conversation," Trump emphasized. At the same time, the American president noted that at this stage the US is not involved in what is happening, but did not rule out direct intervention in the event of further escalation.
Israel has carried out airstrikes on the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) headquarters in Tehran:
The new head of the IRGC has been appointed, for now.
The BBC has just interviewed Iran's king-in-exile and national leader, Reza Shah II Pahlavi, in which His Majesty states that the Iranian people are now energized & motivated, viewing this as the best opportunity to remove the Islamic regime.
Germany, France and Britain are ready to hold immediate talks with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme in a bid to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East, German foreign minister Johann Wadephul said.
Wadephul, who is on a visit to the Middle East, said he was trying to contribute towards a de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and noted Tehran had previously failed to take the opportunity to enter into constructive talks, Reuters reports.
“I hope that’s still possible,” Wadephul told German public broadcaster ARD late on Saturday. “Germany, together with France and Britain are ready. We’re offering Iran immediate negotiations about the nuclear programme, I hope (the offer) is accepted.
“This is also a key prerequisite for reaching a pacification of this conflict, that Iran presents no danger to the region, for the state of Israel or to Europe.”
US President Donald Trump told ABC News that he is "open" to Vladimir Putin's possible involvement as a mediator in resolving the conflict between Israel and Iran. "He ( Putin - TMT) is ready. He called me about it. We had a long conversation," Trump emphasized. At the same time, the American president noted that at this stage the US is not involved in what is happening, but did not rule out direct intervention in the event of further escalation.
Over 200 injured and 8 killed in overnight Iranian attacks on Israel with ballistic missiles and UAVs. A refinery, power plant, port, industrial sites, and residential areas in Tel Aviv, Rehovot, and Kiryat Ekron were struck. At least 35 people are still missing.
The Israel Defense Forces have issued a warning to Iranian civilians: stay away from weapons depots, arms factories, and any sites linked to the nuclear program.
The IDF has estimated that Iran had roughly 2000 ballistic missiles. Sunday’s Iranian missile strikes against Israel targets have decreased significantly.
Mariano Giustino for Radio Radicale in Tehran: “I apologize if I am forced to repeat things that I have already documented extensively, but it is necessary because I see even today that you are off track in reporting the Islamic Republic's news. Things are like this:
Iranian people are not demonstrating against Israeli attacks.
The demonstrations you see are organized by government faithful who force people to demonstrate under threat.
Iranian people are happy with the Israeli bombing of Iranian military and nuclear sites and the killing of Pasdaran leaders.
They hope for the weakening of the regime and declare themselves ready for the final push. - Iranian airspace is now under the control of Israele.
Tehran was hit in several locations across the city today.
Reports have emerged that a factory producing the infamous Shahed drones has been destroyed in Isfahan, Iran.
Israel has reportedly struck Shiraz Electronics Industries, the company responsible for producing nearly all of Iran’s radar systems
In addition, Israeli warplanes carried out a morning strike on a military base in Kermanshah, western Iran.
Reuters: Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Sunday that they targeted Israel in coordination with Iran, the first time an Iran-aligned group has publicly announced joint cooperation on attacks with Tehran. The Yemeni group targeted central Israel's Jaffa with several ballistic missiles in the last 24 hours, military spokesperson Yehya Sarea said in a televised address.
TASS news agency reports that, according to the Iranian Foreign Minister, Iran is ready to enter into an agreement ensuring it does not have nuclear weapons. This news is yet to be confirmed from Iranian sources. (Mo: totally believable coming from Tass.)
Israel asks US to join strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, officials told Axios. The request comes as Israel continues its assault on Iranian targets and warns that it lacks the capability to destroy Fordow uranium enrichment site alone.
Olga Lautman: “After his call with Putin, Trump is trying to signal that the U.S. isn’t involved. But he’s in quite a bind. Russia knows that the U.S. is assisting. If Trump distances himself too much from Israel, he will alienate a key part of his base and if he shows full support for Israel, he will anger Putin. Quite a dilemma.”
Tuvia Gering—Chinese propaganda about Israel: "Palestine will eventually be liberated, the invaders will ultimately perish, and the Zionist terrorists should wander the earth forever! " - Zhao Shengye (Jack) commands a following of over 4 million on Weibo.
A self-described “red” patriotic hacker (honker), he specializes in system analysis and political and psychological warfare. Zhao holds a PhD in computer science and completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), which operates under the oversight of the CCP Central Military Commission.
Zhao also serves on the Fushun municipal committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and member of the Jiusan Society, both affiliated with the CCP’s United Front system. Zhao is a key contributor to a pro-Palestine, pro-Hamas Weibo supergroup and has authored articles for Xinhua News Agency on political warfare against the United States.
Some of Zhao’s posts in the past 24 hours:
"Watch how Iran’s ballistic missiles knock out Israel’s Iron Dome air defense positions — video courtesy of an ink-squirting squid... [yawn]" ("squid" is an established derogatory homonym for "Jews" by Chinese antisemites).
"Espionage has always involved mutual infiltration—it’s nothing new. But wars between modern states are still constrained by a host of international treaties and laws, such as the UN Charter and the Geneva Conventions. Nations don’t go to war lightly. Even when they do, assassinations are rarely part of state policy.
"Israel’s behavior, i.e., killing Iranian scientists at will, assassinating leaders of Middle Eastern countries without hesitation, is not the conduct of a normal country. Only fascist states or terrorist regimes act this extremely. In modern history, there have only been two figures who behaved like Netanyahu does now: Hitler and Tojo Hideki [Imperial Japan PM from 1941 to 1944).
"Iran is not a weak country. In fact, the extent to which Iran has been infiltrated isn’t even as severe as how deeply the US has penetrated Russia. The real issue is that Iran’s quasi-neighbor - Israel - is despicable and underhanded to an extreme.
"Frankly, our country [PRC] also needs to draw lessons from Iran’s experience. There’s another country right next to us that behaves much like Israel, and as the global situation grows more complex and Japanese militarism is revived, no one can predict what the future holds. But preparing for contingencies is always the right move."
