June 19: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Please note: E-Stories will most likely be published in the early afternoon European time.
“Nobody’s talking about any investment, because how are you supposed to invest in Russia in this climate — war, sanctions, slowing growth and persistent inflation?” The main point of the forum is to show Putin that the economy isn’t stagnating.”
Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Stories we’re following…
6 killed, 49 injured in Russian attacks against Ukraine over past day. Russian forces launched 58 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys against Ukraine overnight, targeting mainly the Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the Air Force said.
During the night of June 18–19, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 88 out of 104 Russian Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple directions across Russia and occupied Crimea.
On Thursday morning, Russian forces attacked Dnipropetrovsk region, injuring 5 people, including an 11-year-old boy. Four adults remain hospitalized, including a 59-year-old man, according to OVA head Lysak. Russian strikes also destroyed a vehicle and damaged private property.
Kyrylo Shevchenko: Russia has used over 6,900 chemical weapons against Ukraine in just two years — including CS gas, chloropicrin, and other internationally banned agents. These are systematic violations of international law.
These substances harm soldiers and civilians. The weapons contaminate soil, water, and air, leaving long-term damage to agriculture and livestock in frontline regions. And for Ukraine, where farming is a cornerstone of the economy, that impact is devastating. Russia carried out 715 chemical attacks this May alone — a sharp rise month over month. Sanctions follow, but they haven’t stopped the escalation.
Ukraine kills collaborator tied to POW torture in occupied Berdiansk, intelligence source claims. Mykhailo Hrytsai, a senior collaborator with the Russian occupation authorities, was shot dead in the city with a silenced PM pistol, according to a source.
Another prisoner exchange has taken place under the Istanbul agreements. Ukrainian defenders from the Armed Forces, National Guard, and Border Guard Service have returned home — many held in captivity since 2022.
Russia has refused a ceasefire for 100 days and continues to escalate terror, says Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiiha. "Ukraine accepted the U.S. peace proposal unconditionally, Russia chose more bloodshed," he added.
Ukraine's parliament passes bill allowing multiple citizenship. Ukraine's parliament on June 18 supported a bill allowing Ukrainian citizens to hold passports of foreign countries, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said.
Christine Lagarde: “Hello or pryvit from Kyiv! In the face of Russia's unjustified war of aggression, Ukraine has demonstrated extraordinary courage in defence of their country. I'm here to see first-hand the resilience of the Ukrainian people and economy.”
Combat Situation
ISW: Russian forces conducted an at least platoon-sized mechanized assault in the Toretsk direction on June 17. Geolocated footage published on June 17 shows that Russian forces conducted a mechanized assault west of Yablunivka (west of Toretsk) with at least three armored vehicles and four motorized vehicles, likely all-terrain vehicles (ATVs).
Russian mechanized assaults in the Toretsk direction may indicate that the Russian military command intends to prioritize this sector of the front.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to supply Ukraine with military aid and announce new sanctions packages against Russia.
Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.
Russian forces are suffering significant losses in the Sumy region, leading to a noticeable decrease in the activity of small infantry groups near the border, - Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service (SBGS).
A fire broke out near the airfield in Russia’s Volgograd following a drone attack. What damage was caused is not yet known and being investigated.
Unconfirmed reports from Russia’s Orenburg region: Local channels claim Ukrainian sabotage units may have crossed in from Kazakhstan. Drones were allegedly spotted near Russian Strategic Missile Forces bases.
Behind the Lines
Germany’s Rheinmetall and U.S. defense tech company Anduril Industries are teaming up to make defense systems for Europe. The companies said they will start developing European variants of Anduril’s Barracuda missiles and Fury autonomous air vehicle in Rheinmetall’s digital sovereignty framework as well as producing solid rocket motors.
Re-Upping this: Russia is making progress on an initiative to expand its military presence near the Finnish border, according to a new report by the Finnish media outlet Yle. The military has begun constructing a new artillery brigade installation in Kandalaksha, in the Murmansk region, while simultaneously expanding its hardware on the Karelian Isthmus. This expansion was revealed through new satellite imagery analyzed by journalists. The photos indicate that Russia began large-scale construction last winter at the restricted military facility of Lupche-Savino-2 in Kandalaksha, roughly 110 kilometers (about 70 miles) from Finland.
Ruslan Trad: “The Finnish parliament voted to withdraw the country from the convention banning anti-personnel mines. The Baltic states and Poland have already taken this step. As I have written about this before, my opinion remains unchanged - Bulgaria should leave the convention.”
Senate reportedly delays Russia sanctions as Middle East crisis, Trump’s tax bill take priority. The U.S. Senate is postponing action on a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill until at least July, as other legislative and foreign policy priorities dominate the agenda, Semafor reported on June 18.
Putin says he's ready to meet Zelensky if West 'stops pushing' Ukraine to fight. Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine "as soon as possible," preferably through peaceful means, and is ready to continue negotiations — provided that Kyiv and its Western allies are willing to engage, Vladimir Putin said.
Ukraine dismisses Russia's 'absurd' ceasefire condition for dismantling Western arms. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry on June 18 brushed off Moscow's demands for Kyiv to destroy or dismantle Western-supplied weapons as a condition for a ceasefire, saying it shows disregard for U.S. peace efforts.
Ukraine won't receive NATO invitation at The Hague summit, Lithuanian FM says. "This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
The Kremlin likely aims to use the ongoing SPIEF to support ongoing efforts to consolidate control over the information space and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war effort. The Kremlin also aims to use SPIEF to promote Kremlin narratives to Western audiences.
The Kremlin continues to crack down on critical Russian milbloggers as part of its years-long effort to censor and control the Russian information space.
Sanctions, loss of foreign markets and the increase in the Central Bank's key rate have put Russian metallurgy, one of the largest industries, on the brink of collapse. It employs more than 600 thousand people and provides the economy with 10% of export revenues. Due to falling demand and expensive loans, there is a risk of a complete shutdown of metallurgical plants in the country, Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelev said at SPIEF-2025.
According to his estimates, this year steelmakers may face the impossibility of selling up to 6 million tons of steel, or almost 10% of last year's production. The forecast for steel consumption for the current year is quite pessimistic, Shevelev said: demand within Russia may decrease from 43-45 million tons to 39 million tons. "This is a very large decrease, this is, strictly speaking, the consumption volume of an entire industry," the top manager complained.
The Russian MinFin managed to sell 86,493 billion rubles of debt from the fix coupon issue OFZ PD-26218 at a yield of 15,17%. This is the second lowest yield so far this year after the small auction last week at 14,86 but sold only 11,9 billion rubles.
i-Stories: With fleeing the country out of reach for many, some Russian deserters have turned to a new tactic to avoid being sent back to the war in Ukraine — getting locked up. Their lawyers have the unusual task of making sure their clients face charges that result in real prison sentences, since probation could mean being sent straight back to the front.
The collapse of oil and gas budget revenues against the backdrop of increased military spending is forcing the Finance Ministry to borrow more and more. The borrowing plan for this year is 4.8 trillion rubles, and the ministry's appetite is wider. On Wednesday, the Finance Ministry placed two OFZ issues for a total of 195 billion rubles and fulfilled the quarterly plan, which was 1.3 trillion rubles. In the first quarter, it planned to borrow a trillion, but managed to attract more - 1.4 trillion rubles. Thus, in less than six months, the Finance Ministry has borrowed more than 2.7 trillion rubles - 56% of the annual plan.
Pakistani Oil Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has called on Russian authorities to consider investing in the republic's mining sector "with an emphasis on technology." He made the proposal at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF). According to the minister, Pakistan is a "country of incredible, unexplored underground wealth," and its geographic location offers great opportunities for the development of the mining industry.
First Deputy Director General of Rosatom Nedra Alexey Shemetov expressed his readiness to address this issue and promised to present specific proposals. In addition, Malik met with the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy, Sergei Tsivilev, where they discussed prospects for cooperation in the oil and gas industry and in the area of hydropower. "The parties confirmed their mutual interest in further strengthening the partnership," the department reported .
Huge oil spill in the Gulf of Oman, 1,500-hectare slick off the coast of Iran after a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker, the Adalynn, collided with the Front Eagle.
Russia and Iran’s nuclear program? "Over 200 Russian experts are currently helping build two more nuclear reactor units at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran. And we have agreed with the Israeli leadership that their safety will be ensured."
Putin also claimed the June 17 missile strike on Kyiv targeted “factories producing military equipment,” not residential areas. He said a new round of talks with Ukraine could take place after June 22, and denied any plans to attack NATO, calling such claims “fabrications and nonsense.” He blamed the West for the war, alleging it supported a coup in Ukraine, and stated, “I didn’t start this war—I’m trying to end it.”
Mo: Our analysis points to the fact that Russia had never stopped assisting Iran in their nuclear programme. It remains to be seen whether Russia has the capacity and resources to continue aiding Iran or if this is yet another scheme to funnel money into Iran by the Russians. On consideration of Russia’s continuting weakening economic outlook, and its continuous search for avenues to fund its war industries, the multitude of nuclear reactor projects Russia has announced have a different objective.
The biggest sex-scandal in Russia: billionaire-pedophile Deripaska bought underage virgins for sexual pleasures. Verstka and Vazhnye Istorii published a high-profile investigation into a criminal network that supplied underage girls to rich pedophiles for sexual pleasures.
The network operated in 2018–2019 under the guise of children's beauty contests and modeling agencies. Girls were lured into prostitution, after which they recruited their friends. The range of clients was very wide: “fat cats,” criminal authorities, Arab sheikhs, and even citizens of Syria and Azerbaijan. According to interrogations, 15-year-old schoolgirl Elizaveta Popova named Deripaska as her first client. His name was also mentioned by another minor, Irina Saprykina.
The abbreviation "OD" in the case materials, as journalists claim, refers specifically to Deripaska. The investigators knew about the clients, but the authorities demanded that they not touch the "influential persons". Only the pimps were jailed in this case. One of the convicted later joined the Wagner PMC, received a medal and a pardon.
Reuters: China floods Brazil with cheap EVs triggering backlash. China's top producer of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, is offering Brazilian car shoppers relatively low-priced options in a market where the green-car movement is still in its infancy. Brazilian auto-industry officials and labor leaders worry that the vast influx of cars from BYD and other Chinese automakers will set back domestic auto production and hurt jobs.
Journalists, activists, protesters march in solidarity with media as Communication Commission, state media regulator, is to review Georgian Dream's complaint against critical channels over the use of terms challenging GD government's legitimacy.
Slovak police tried to detain ex-defense minister over Ukraine aid deal, media reports. The Slovak police reportedly also seek to detain a former Defense Ministry official and have detained an ex-head of the Konstrukta Defense state company in a move denounced by Nad's opposition Democrats party as politically motivated.
Bloomberg: In Hungary, according to the latest opinion poll, the opposition Tisza party leads 51% over 36% for the ruling Fidesz party of PM Orban among decided voters. Hungary will hold a scheduled parliamentary election in April 2026. n Hungary, the opposition Tisza party has been consistently polling above the ruling Fidesz party since early 2025. This poll also reflects what Szabolcs Panyi has been saying on VSquare for the past six months.
VSquare on Georg Spottle: He receives talking points from a GRU officer that later surface in his podcasts and media commentary. He travels to Moscow on trips organized by the Russian Defense Ministry and promises his GRU contact to report back in Hungarian outlets. Who is he? Well, he’s Georg Spöttle, an eccentric German-Hungarian propagandist who not only champions Viktor Orbán’s government but openly supports Vladimir Putin’s regime as well. Published this morning in Hungarian (find it here), my new investigation for Direkt36 reveals how Spöttle mingles with Hungarian ministers—he was even named as a favorite podcaster by foreign minister Péter Szijjártó—while a national security screening of one of his close acquaintances uncovered Spöttle’s direct ties to Russian intelligence.
In Europe…
Reuters: EU governments have reached an agreement on a $1.73 billion EU scheme to fund defence investments, although some complained that its 'buy European' provisions are too restrictive, diplomats said.
Sweden approves a historic boost in defense spending to meet NATO’s 3.5% GDP goal, partially funded by public borrowing. Importantly, aid to Ukraine will remain fully funded, outside of the new debt cap, ensuring continued support.
Putin 'cannot be trusted' as mediator, Kallas says, urges EU to tighten Russian oil cap after deadly Kyiv strike. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude, even without U.S. support.
E.U. diplomat assaulted during visit to Russian Far East — Der Spiegel. A European Union diplomat was assaulted in the Russian Far Eastern city of Vladivostok in late May, Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources.
According to the outlet, the E.U. staffer was in Vladivostok on a work trip. Around 7:00 a.m. on May 26, she left her hotel for a walk. Shortly afterward, a car pulled up beside her and two men got out. They threatened her, then physically attacked her.
The woman’s name has not been disclosed, but she is reportedly a Romanian citizen. She was accompanied by a French colleague, and the two had planned to visit E.U. consulates in the city. Following the assault, she was evacuated from Russia. Her current condition is unknown.
Decode39: UAE Ambassador Abdulla Ali AlSubousi says Rome is a strategic partner in building IMEC, a corridor linking India, the Middle East, and Europe. He believes the initiative can stabilise regions through shared growth and culture. He emphasised that the visit also formalised a comprehensive India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) deal, with leaders recognising both countries as critical logistics hubs connecting Europe and Asia.
In other news…
Reuters: The US central bank held interest rates steady and policymakers signaled borrowing costs are still likely to fall in 2025, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that view, and said he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead as consumers pay more for goods.
Axios: Axios reporters are hearing about low morale within ICE. The agency is being stressed by the demands by Miller and Noem that agents arrest 3,000 immigrants a day nationwide — a quota that many within ICE don't believe is achievable.
Some agents are stressed by the tactics some of their colleagues are using in making arrests. Others are disheartened by the response that masked, heavily armed agents have received in several communities.
We've also heard that some ICE agents are afraid of being fired for not meeting arrest quotas — the agency still hasn't hit the 3,000-per-day goal.
Over the past 24 hours, the IDF launched three major waves of strikes to weaken the Iranian military’s “core capabilities,” including missile production sites and launch infrastructure.
Israel’s air force destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s internal security forces. “As we promised — we will continue to target symbols of power and strike the ayatollahs’ regime everywhere,” Katz said.
Iran has been almost entirely offline for over 12 hours, reports Netblocks. Authorities imposed a nationwide internet blackout, citing alleged “Israeli misuse” of the network for military purposes. Connectivity remains severely disrupted.
Israeli strikes have dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear program. “The Israelis have inflicted profound damage that will set back the nuclear program many months.
But Grossi said the inspectors don’t know where Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium — enough to produce 10 nuclear warheads if enriched further is — and that Tehran warned him the stockpile could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack.
ISW—Iranian Regime Stability: The Iranian regime appears to be very concerned about internal unrest.
Asked if Russia was ready to provide Iran with modern weapons to defend itself against Israeli strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin said a strategic partnership treaty signed with Tehran in January did not envisage military cooperation.
AFP journalists heard violent, sustained explosions in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Thursday morning, as sirens sounded in several parts of the country and the Israeli army warned of incoming Iranian missiles.
Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, warns that targeting Iran’s leadership could trigger “widespread chaos that would exacerbate the suffering of its people and severely harm everyone’s interests.” The Iran-Israel conflict risks plunging the entire region into turmoil, he said.
The IDF has continued to target the Iranian internal security apparatus. Two anti-regime hacker groups conducted cyber attacks on June 18 that targeted Iranian financial and media institutions.
Israeli strikes have driven Iranian forces to begin firing missiles from central Iran rather than western Iran. Iranian forces will need to use longer-range missiles to reach Israel from the launch sites in central Iran.
Iran launched approximately 30 missiles toward Israel, according to The Times of Israel. Among the reported impacts were strikes on the Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva (video)—Israel's third-largest hospital—as well as on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange building. More than 40 people have been injured in the attacks.
Trump reportedly told senior aides late Tuesday that he has approved attack plans on Iran, but has not yet given the greenlight. Trump is thought to be waiting, possibly to the last minute, to see if Tehran will agree to abandon its nuclear program, according to The Wall Street Journal citing sources familiar with the deliberations.
That report came after Trump piled on the suspense earlier today about whether he had made a decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he said outside of the White House where he also reiterated his demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender.
Trump met with Pakistani armed forces chief Asim Munir at the White House today as Islamabad has offered to mediate. The meeting also comes weeks after India and Pakistan’s four-day conflict in May.
Reuters: The prospect of US involvement in Iran has laid bare a divide in Trump’s MAGA base. Steve Holland tells the Reuters World News podcast that Trump risks alienating some of his most loyal supporters who don’t want another foreign war.
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency session this Friday at Iran's request.
A resolution has been introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives to prohibit military action against Iran without Congressional approval. “This is not our war,” the document states. The resolution is backed by 27 bipartisan lawmakers — including Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene. (Mo: I’m getting the Contras feeling.)
The reaction from Tehran was defiant — and face-saving. Iran’s mission to the UN denied that Iran offered to hold talks in Washington. “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House,” it said in a statement. Khamenei likewise said the Islamic Republic “will not surrender” and warned that if the U.S. takes military action “it will undoubtedly cause irreparable consequences to them.”
Flight tracking sites and several news outlets report that as many as three Iranian government aircraft, including a presidential plane, flew today to Oman — where U.S.-Iran nuclear talks had been held.
a German diplomatic source told Reuters that the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain are planning to hold nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday in Geneva, Switzerland.