June 2: E-Stories
OpPAVUTYNA-SPIDERWEB InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
OPERATION PAVUTYNA-SPIDERWEB…
Let’s get going with Sunday’s big story: the UAF struck FOUR Russian airbases with drones in Operation “Pavutýna (SPIDERWEB)”: Belaya, Diaghilevo, Olenya and Ivanovo airfields. The largest operation to date! Information about Operation Pavutyna started coming in at 12:31 CET.
The operation took 1.5 years to prepare. The number of aircraft hit is still to be confirmed but sources are saying 41 Russian aircraft were struck.
BBC News: "the Ukrainian authorities say that 472 drones and seven ballistic and cruise missiles were involved in last night’s wave of attacks on Ukraine. This would appear to be one largest single Russian drone attacks so far."
SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk leading execution. Sources say the complex logistics involved smuggling FPV drones and mobile wooden cabins into Russia. The drones were hidden under remote-controlled roofs on trucks. When triggered, the roofs opened and kamikaze drones launched toward Russian bombers. Video: Voskresensk military airbase in Moscow region.
Spravdi Media Centre reporting that one of Russia's key bases for housing it's strategic bomber fleet, the currently burning Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk is home to: - Beriev A-50 (intelligence gathering aircraft) - Tupolev Tu-22M3 (supersonic long-range bombers) - Tupolev Tu-95MS (turboprop strategic bombers).
United24 Media: 34% of strategic cruise missile carriers at the main airfields of the Russia were hit as a result of today's operation, according to the Security Service of Ukraine. The losses are estimated at approximately $7 billion. If initial reports are correct, Ukraine destroyed 73% of Russian TU-95 Bears. (Video: Ukrainians celebrating across the country and beyond— “Air base on fire, your defense is terrified!”)
SBU insiders stress that all operatives involved are already safely back in Ukraine. Any arrests by Russian authorities will likely be staged for domestic propaganda. Telegram channels and Russian proxies have started circulating the narrative that the planes were old and not in use.
As to how the Ukrainians got the drone parts into Russia, they would have had to move through states that have easy access to Russia, and where the border controls are lax: Georgia and Kazakhstan. This is mere speculation, but the two countries have been transit hubs for illegal goods, including drone parts and technology, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. In Georgia alone, there are many shipping services that offer delivery to Russia without the proper documentation.
CBS: A Ukrainian official says the Trump administration wasn't notified in advance of the massive drone strike on Russian bases. Administration sources confirm that the White House wasn't aware that today's large-scale drone attack by Ukraine on the Russian military aircraft was coming.
At the time of this writing, Russian media report an emergency meeting is underway in the Kremlin following Ukraine's massive drone strike on key strategic aviation airfields. Video: Two Russians commenting on the drones as they take off.
Talks between Ukraine and Russia are scheduled for tomorrow at 13:00 at the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul, according to Russian media citing a source from the Turkish Foreign Ministry. Ukraine going into talks with a lot more leverage than previously. Video: Olenya Air base, 180 km from the border with Finland.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 10, injure 32 over past day. Ukrainian defenses shot down 69 drones and three Kh-59/69 guided missiles using aviation units, air defense systems, electronic warfare, and mobile fire teams.
Ukraine orders mandatory evacuation from 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast amid Russian troop buildup.
"(Russia) continues its terror of the borderlands, and our shared task is to save every life," Governor Oleh Hryhorov said in a statement. "I urge residents not to delay the decision to evacuate. Staying in a zone of constant danger is a direct threat to your life and health."
No clarity on Russia’s agenda ahead of Ukraine peace talks, Zelensky says. Ukraine and its partners are still waiting to see what, if anything, Russia plans to present at the upcoming peace talks in Turkey scheduled for June 2, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
NATO officials reject Russian demand to halt expansion, media reports. According to NATO sources cited by Radio Liberty, the written pledge Moscow demands is unrealistic. "It’s not something they (Russia) can just get," one diplomat said.
Combat Situation
Jimmy Rushton: A photograph of the head of Ukraine's SBU Vasyl Malyuk, during the planning of operation "Spiderweb". Note the selected target points on the pictures of the Russian aircraft, and then watch the SBU FPV drone in the quoted video strike that point precisely.
Last year, Ukrainian military intelligence scanned Russian bomber aircraft and trained AI to recognize them and execute automatic dive attack algorithms. Ukrainian drones targeted Tu-95 bombers using AI trained on Soviet planes from a museum.
It’s highly likely that Ukraine also intended -but failed- to target Ukrainka Air Base in Russia’s Amur region today. In a photo featuring SBU chief Malyuk, a map of Ukrainka is clearly visible.
Earlier, footage emerged of a burned-out trailer—reportedly carrying drones—in the Amur region. It’s very possible these were meant for an attack on Ukrainka, one of Russia’s largest long-range strategic aviation bases in the Far East.
Russia steps up offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy oblasts, Syrskyi says. While Russia's main efforts remain concentrated on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman fronts in Donetsk Oblast, as well as in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast bordering Russia, Zaporizhzhia has seen an uptick in escalation, Syrskyi noted.
ISW: Russian officials' public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia maintains wider territorial goals in Ukraine beyond the four oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed. The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and a potential future war with NATO.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Toretsk and in western Zaporizhia.
A bridge reportedly exploded in Russia’s Bryansk region as a passenger train traveling from Moscow to Klimovo was crossing. This was the second bridge, after a bridge collapsed in Zheleznogorsk district an hour earlier. According to Russian media, the train derailed and at least five people were injured. The collapse of the bridges may not be a sabotage operation but speaks to the precarious state of Russian infrastructure, which has been neglected. More on this in future installments of E-Stories.
A Russian military freight train was blown up near Melitopol, heading toward Crimea, — Ukraine's military intelligence confirmed. The explosion derailed fuel tankers and cargo wagons near Yakymivka overnight. Following the blast, Russian forces launched a manhunt, deploying Rosgvardia patrols and tightening checkpoint controls.
Ukrainian minister says his country producing 10m drones per year. Drones do 80% of damage in battlefield he says. Ukrainian made FPV IS $500, he says, in contrast to $1,500 for foreign models. Low-cost interceptor drones at $5,000 “affordable alternative” to traditional SAMs. (Mo: I know the meme is crass, but so apropos.)
President Zelensky: Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Maliuk delivered a report regarding today’s operation.
An absolutely brilliant result. A result achieved solely by Ukraine. One year, six months, and nine days from the start of planning to effective execution. Our most long-range operation.
Our people involved in preparing the operation were withdrawn from Russian territory in time.
I thanked General Maliuk for this success of Ukraine. I instructed the Security Service of Ukraine to inform the public about the details and results of the operation that can be disclosed.
Of course, not everything can be revealed at this moment, but these are Ukrainian actions that will undoubtedly be in history books.
Ukraine is defending itself, and rightly so – we are doing everything to make Russia feel the need to end this war. Russia started this war, Russia must end it. Glory to Ukraine!
Now the scary part: Op Spiderweb could be used in any nation. Western nations should be investing heavily in counterintelligence efforts at this time. In Italy, for example, there are insufficient resources allocated to CI as reported by sources close to the intelligence community.
Ukrainska Pravda: How Russia is changing the face of Crimea
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Crimea has become both a launchpad for attacks on mainland Ukraine and a frontline zone. Explosions frequently rock the peninsula and military infrastructure goes up in flames as it is targeted by Ukrainian forces. The Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia is periodically closed due to security threats. Air travel ceased in February 2022. Underground water sources are becoming increasingly salty, and the North Crimean Canal – which once supplied water from the Dnipro – has been permanently out of commission since Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam.
Big business is scared off by the sanctions on Crimea that have been in place for over a decade. Under Ukrainian law, any property deals made after 2014 are legally void. They are only valid as long as the occupation lasts.
You might think these factors should reduce Crimea’s appeal to average Russians and investors. But the opposite is true. Construction is booming, prices continue to rise, and the occupation authorities are announcing large-scale projects like the "Crimean Dubai". They're also working to attract more Russians to the peninsula.
Russia’s policy of population replacement in Crimea is nothing new. The Kremlin began implementing a colonisation policy from the very first months of Crimea’s occupation. Pro-Ukrainian residents have faced persecution. Property owned by locals without Russian passports has been seized. Russian officials and military personnel have been relocated to the region. Businesses were promised golden opportunities, while professionals such as doctors and teachers were lured in with generous financial incentives.
Despite the ongoing war, the property market in Crimea is booming. Nearly twice as many apartments were sold in new developments in 2024 compared to 2023. Prices on the primary market jumped by 20-22%. The average cost per square metre rose from RUB 180,000 (around US$1,900) in spring 2024 to RUB 214,000 (US$2,100) by year-end – reaching RUB 230,000 (US$2,260) in resort areas. Premium housing prices have more than doubled since the full-scale invasion began.
Olha Skrypnyk of the Crimean Human Rights Group says the reason for the disconnect between the war and these soaring prices is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces only target military facilities, so ordinary residents, far away from air bases or depots, don’t often feel the impact of the explosions.
Behind the Lines
UK identifies Russia as an 'immediate and pressing' threat in new defense review, the Guardian reports. Alongside Russia, the review identifies China as a "sophisticated and persistent challenge," noting Beijing's growing ties with Moscow and its role in supplying critical components for Russian weapons systems.
European leaders shift focus to defending Ukraine without US support, the Telegraph reports. According to the Telegraph, senior European diplomats meeting in The Hague agreed to shift their focus from deploying troops to enforce a ceasefire to preparing long-term strategies for supporting Ukraine without American backing. (Mo: I can confirm.)
Sweden to tighten control over Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea. Starting July 1, Swedish Coast Guard & Maritime Administration will be able to access insurance data for all vessels transiting Swedish waters — not just those docking in ports.
A base for the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy will be opened in Abkhazia, the president of the unrecognized republic Badra Gunba announced, without specifying the opening dates. According to him, the facility will be built in the area of the city of Ochamchira, where the base of the patrol ships of the coast guard of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia is located.
Mo: The Russian Black Sea Fleet was run out of the western sector of the Black Sea starting in 2023 by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian BSF was moved to the base at Novorossiysk. Plans to develop the base at Ochamchira in Abkhazia (Georgia) were in the making for quite some time. The Russians have also re-opened an airport at Sukhumi, roughly 50 kms north of Ochamchira. A Chinese consortium has been given the contract to develop the warm seaport of Anaklia which is 70 km south of Ochamchira. Chinese consortiums have also been awarded contracts by the Georgian Dream-led government to develop other connectivity infrastructure in Georgia: roads, tunnels and bridges. Therefore, Russia and China will have access to a warm water port and railways that provide access to the entire South Caucasus.
An increase oil production, decreases the price: At a meeting on Saturday, May 31, OPEC+ ministers agreed to further increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day from June, the organization said in a press release. A similar increase in OPEC+ supplies took place in May and is scheduled for June. Thus, in three months, the cartel, which unites three dozen of the largest oil-producing countries, will add 1.2 million barrels of new daily supplies to the market - the maximum since 2020, when OPEC+ lifted the strict restrictions imposed during the pandemic.
Reuters has published the full text of Ukraine’s proposals from the Istanbul talks. Key points include:
▪️ Full & unconditional ceasefire on land, sea & air (initial 30 days, extendable);
▪️ Return of all deported/forcibly displaced persons; all-for-all POW exchange;
▪️ International security guarantees;
▪️ Right to pursue NATO & EU membership;
▪️ No recognition of occupation since February 2014;
▪️ Current front line as baseline for talks; territorial issues discussed after ceasefire;
▪️ Sanctions on Russia may be lifted gradually;
▪️ Frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s recovery or reparations;
▪️ Final peace terms decided at a leaders' summit.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
ISW: Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia's economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good-faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.
Moscow’s expansion in Africa: Moscow’s foreign policy has zeroed in on Africa in recent years. The shift is partially due to commercial interests, including access to resources like gold, uranium, and bauxite. But it’s also political: having broken ties with the West, Russia is rapidly trying to build up a sphere of influence. Kremlin officials frequently accuse the West of neocolonialism, yet their approach in Africa is full of its own patterns of exploitation and control. (Mo: I picked this video because First Post is a Chinese-Russian collaboration.)
In Russia, about 90% of web applications are vulnerable to hacking and data theft, as they contain at least one critical vulnerability, said Alexander Bleznekov, head of information security at Telecom Exchange. The same problem is observed in about 70% of desktop and mobile services, the expert noted.
Reuters: China called on Saturday for its automotive industry to halt brutal price wars, as a threat to the sector's health and sustainable development, after key executives jousted over pricing pressure following large discounts offered to buyers. Tension between some top players has spilled into the open as competition intensifies in the world's largest auto market, with price wars begun in early 2023 showing little sign of abating, despite concern among both government and industry.
BBC: How the North Korean authorities control phones. The BBC obtained a smuggled North Korean phone. The phone auto-corrects key Korean terms and secretly screenshots the screen every five minutes.
Georgian Dream-led government foreign agents law: 'Serious setback' for democracy. The EU condemned Georgia's foreign agents law and called on authorities to reverse the country's democratic backsliding in a statement published on May 31.
OC Media: The French Embassy in Georgia has issued a travel advisory warning its citizens that they might be denied entry into the country in case they participated in the ongoing pro-European protests.
The embassy’s advisory was issued on Thursday, warning French nationals that participation in the ongoing protests ‘often results in arrests and dispersal by law enforcement’. They warned that participation in these demonstrations can be punished by heavy fines of ₾5,000 ($1,800) — the usual amount protests accused of blocking roads are fined.
Luka Mishveladze: What life looks like in Georgian detention facilities.
These are the places where protesters are held on administrative charges and what happens inside is brutal. This is the reality under Georgia’s pro-Russian, illegitimate government.
When activists are sentenced to imprisonment, they’re taken to detention facilities. You're placed in a tiny room with two prison bunk beds, one table and four chairs, all of them bolted to the floor, so you can't move anything. In the best case, the toilet is separated. In others facilities everything’s just packed together in one space.
You’re allowed one 10-minute shower every three days. Not sure if you can even shave, too many things are restricted and it’s all tightly controlled.
You get 30 minutes of TV per day, not in your room. They move you to another space for that. There are a few channels, so that half-hour is all the “fun” you get. You also get 25 minutes of “walk” outside. But don’t let that word fool you, it’s just a walled yard with maybe a glimpse of sunlight if you're lucky. You can try to work out, but how much can you do in 25 minutes? And if you sweat, good luck, no shower for two more days.
Cells hold up to 4 people. You get 3 meals a day, but the food is everything except good. When I was there for 2 days, they gave me none of these “privileges”, no walk, no TV, no shower. Just food. And they skipped the third meal and lied to me.
My case was different, I wasn’t sentenced by a judge, just arrested by criminal police. Only sentenced people get access to the “benefits.” The only thing I had was a book.
But about the books: There’s no library. Just a few old books, some in Georgian, some in Russian. Maybe that was just my building. The books were mostly destroyed. Some were unreadable. I need glasses to read, but they took them, said I didn’t need them. If you’re sentenced, you can order books through friends or family, but not all kind of shape books are allowed. Still, reading is tough. The light is terrible. Reading hurts your eyes. And at night? You can’t turn off the lights. Even for sleep.
There’s one tiny window with a metal grid. I was “lucky”, mine faced the parking lot. That was my only entertainment. There’s also a tiny window in the toilet area so guards can watch you. Plus, two security cameras.
They’re always watching.
Food can be sent by family or friends, but again, there are restrictions. Not everything is allowed. You don’t see anyone except guards and lawyers. So you’re either totally alone or stuck with cellmates.
Most of the time, they keep you alone, to make you suffer more.And the worst part? People aren’t sentenced to 2 days. Some get 12, 30, even 45 or 60 days can be carged in these conditions. Spending 22 hours a day in such a cell, even for 12 days, is torture. You can lose your mind in there.
Now imagine someone sentenced to 30 days. 60 is a full nightmare.
This is a new wave of repression by Georgia’s pro-Russian regime. I tried to show what life is really like in these facilities. I got through 2 days mostly by sleeping, but I don’t think anyone can sleep through 60 days of this. We have dozens of prisoners, some in prisons, others in detention facilities.
Still, we’re not afraid. We will fight until victory and this isn’t just pretty words. It’s what I feel and what I truly believe.
Fire to oligarchy, freedom to all political prisoners.
The face of Italian pro-Russian proxies talking about yesterday’s historic drone attack by the Ukrainian SBU. Clara suggested using nuclear weapons against Ukraine in this particular clip. Their expressions, however, are precious. A happy lot.
In Europe…
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Washington, D.C. next week to meet US President Trump, with the war in Ukraine and trade tensions among the items on the agenda, the German government said. Trump will host Merz for talks in the White House on June 5th.
Polish Elections: Exit polls in Poland's presidential runoff show a razor-thin lead for Civic Platform’s Rafał Trzaskowski with 50.3% vs. 49.7% for Karol Nawrocki. The margin is too close to call, but early data mirrors first-round trends. A pivotal moment for Poland—and Ukraine.
Trzaskowski declared himself a winner as he called it a “special moment” in Polish history and pledged to push ahead with reforms.
But Nawrocki, the opposition candidate, did not concede in his first speech, claiming he could still win the race as the results get counted overnight, a view also expressed by the Law and Justice leader, Jarosław Kaczyński
Ruslan Trad—Russian ops to influence Bulgaria’s Euro accession to the Eurozone: If you read the latest headlines on Bulgaria, you would think that there had been a popular protest against Bulgaria's future accession to the eurozone. Some context is needed.
This is not just local resistance to the euro, but a massive campaign by pro-Russian political forces, led by the Revival party. The previous protest led to an attack on the European Commission's office in Sofia. All this is accompanied by heavy online disinformation. Furthermore, the call for a referendum, contrary to the country's official decision, comes from President Radev, who also holds pro-Russian views.
Russia-aligned actors are amplifying anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland before June 1 vote through coordinated campaigns on X, Bluesky, Facebook, and Telegram, according to a new investigation by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. Key findings:
Throughout the election campaign period, Russian and pro-Russian actors have inflamed negative sentiment towards Ukrainians in Poland (the largest migrant group in the country).
Russia-aligned campaign Operation Overload (also known as Matryoshka) spread false content on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky accusing Ukrainian refugees of preparing terrorist attacks targeting the elections in Poland, with posts receiving more than 654,100 views and 5,725 likes and shares on X.
A parallel Operation Overload effort falsely claimed Ukrainians were plotting attacks on leading politicians in neighbouring countries. This content garnered 533,000 views and 4,530 likes and shares on X, with the engagement again coming from an amplifier network.
ISD found that ChatGPT reproduces misleading claims from a Russian network of websites known as ‘Pravda’ or ‘Portal Kombat’, for example allegations that Ukrainians are responsible for rising violent crime rates in Poland.
A satirical video was picked up and spun by a pro-Kremlin influencer to promote the claim that Ukrainians are taking advantage of the Polish welfare system. This was spread through a coordinated network of Facebook pages and groups, and accounts on Telegram and X. These accounts called for the deportation of Ukrainian refugees, sparking a wave of online hate and threats. The influencer’s response received 161,500 views, 900 shares and 380 comments on Facebook alone, with many of the comments containing hateful and derogatory language.
To get a more complete picture of Russian operations in the EU, this lecture by Nathalie Vogel is superb. Ms Vogel explains the background to malign actors operating for Russian and Chinese interests, including the Storm-1516 operation, which was an information manipulation campaign targeting not only Ukraine, but elections across the EU.
In other news…
China’s government has accused Pete Hegseth of trying to “sow division” in the Asia Pacific region over his speech at a Singapore defence conference where he warned China was a potentially “imminent” threat. On Saturday Hegseth said China was “credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific”, and was rehearsing for “the real deal” of invading Taiwan.
“There’s no reason to sugar coat it. The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent,” the US defence secretary said in a keynote address at the Shangri-la Dialogue defence forum, calling for Asian countries to increase defence spending.
On Sunday, China’s ministry of foreign affairs condemned his words, which it said were “filled with provocations and intended to sow division”. “Hegseth deliberately ignored the call for peace and development by countries in the region, and instead touted the cold war mentality for bloc confrontation, vilified China with defamatory allegations, and falsely called China a ‘threat’,” it said.
Advertising on X by DarGlobal: Own Dubai’s new icon. Trump International Hotel & Tower, Dubai — Downtown’s most powerful residences with skyline views, rooftop infinity pool, curated interiors, private owners lounge. Limited ownership.
I think you could map the future hotels against the current strategy of US foreign policy quite easily.
Musical break…
Taking you back into time with SuperTramp’s “Logical Song”. I must have played this one on loop, including the entire Breakfast in America album—yes, vinyl.