June 20: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Stories we’re following…
Death toll in Russia's mass strike on Kyiv rises to 30 dead, 172 wounded. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the updated casualty figures from Russia's large-scale drone and missile attack during his evening address on June 19.
'Unwanted by their homeland' — Ukraine confirms Russia returned bodies of its soldiers disguised as Ukrainian. "This is yet another proof of how Russia treats its people with contempt," Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.
On Thursday night, several locations hit by Shahid drones in downtown Odesa.
"A surgeon did this," — said a medic about the inscription "Glory to Russia" carved into the body of a soldier freed from captivity.
100 days ago, Ukraine accepted US President Donald Trump’s proposal for an unconditional ceasefire. Russia still refuses to do likewise. Instead, Putin has spent the past 100 days escalating the bombing of Ukrainian cities and murdering hundreds of Ukrainian civilians.
Combat Situation
ISW: Putin's theory of victory is predicated on critical assumptions about Ukraine's capabilities and continued Western support for Ukraine — conditions that the West can still change. Putin continued Russia's reflexive control campaign that aims to deter Western provisions of military aid to Ukraine and NATO rearmament, but appears to be adapting this campaign for different audiences.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces have advanced in Sumy region, near the village of Andriyivka.
Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.
Zelensky appointed Hennadiy Shapovalov as commander of Ukraine’s land forces. Shapovalov previously served as liaison at a NATO coordination center in Germany, and as a commander of Operational Command South forces. Zelensky lauded Shapovalov’s experience working with NATO, saying he will bring much needed change to Ukraine’s land forces. Shapovalov succeeds Mykhailo Drapatyi, who resigned from the post after a Russian strike hit a training area in southeastern Ukraine.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian NATO Membership ‘Should Be on Table’ Senate Panel Says, Ahead of Summit “We are all on the eastern flank now”. The leaders of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) on Tuesday offered rare bipartisan support for NATO ahead of next week’s leaders meeting next week to discuss ways to boost European capabilities in the face of Putin’s growing appetite to use military force in the continent, Kyiv Post’s Washington correspondent reports.
Ukraine, together with NATO partners, is testing new countermeasures against Russian long-range glide bombs (KABs), which are currently difficult to intercept. According to Defence UA, the technologies are in the testing phase, with deployment planned later this year.
North Korea is reportedly considering sending 25,000 workers to Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, the main hub for Shahed-136 and reconnaissance drone production, according to Japan’s NHK, citing Western and Russian diplomatic sources. In exchange for training, North Korea would supply cheap, disciplined labor to support Russia’s growing drone manufacturing efforts.
Forbes—Data Leak: 16 billion passwords leaked, Apple, Google, Facebook users exposed. What’s being called the largest password leak in history has just been confirmed: 16 billion login credentials, many from major platforms like Apple, Google, Facebook, GitHub, and more, are now exposed and circulating. Researchers say the leak comes from 30 separate datasets, most of it new, not recycled. And it’s not just usernames and passwords... URLs, emails, and full login sequences are included. This isn’t just a breach. It’s a blueprint for mass phishing, account takeovers, and digital identity theft at global scale.
EUvsDisinfo: We couldn't agree more - we need to continue our shared work against the disinformation industry of key FIMI players, such as Russia and China.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te put defense and security forces on high alert Thursday as two Chinese aircraft carriers — Shandong and Liaoning — conducted simultaneous operations in the Pacific for the first time. Lai’s office released a statement saying the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a "chain of global security challenges” and that it is notable that “China's military pressure in the entire region of the first and second island chains has not slowed due to the situation in the Middle East.” China's navy said last week the carrier operations were "routine training" exercises that did not target specific countries or regions. That’s unlikely to reassure Taiwan, which is facing mounting military and political pressure from Beijing.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
The High Court of Malaysia has temporarily banned Telegram from operating in the country. The reason for this was a lawsuit filed by the Communications and Multimedia Commission (CMMC). The claims against the messenger arose because of two Telegram channels: Edisi Siasat and Edisi Khas. The regulator found that their content violated the law, “undermining trust in government institutions and threatening public order.” Edisi Siasat has almost 1.2 million subscribers, and Edisi Khas has about 1.5 thousand. Both channels distribute unverified content related to government agencies and law enforcement agencies, Bloomberg writes .
The resources that allowed the Russian economy to show growth for two years under conditions of war and sanctions have been exhausted, the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday.
"We have been growing at a fairly high rate for two years because free resources were used," she said. According to Nabiullina, this concerns the workforce, production capacity, capital reserves of the banking system, as well as money from the National Welfare Fund, with the help of which the government has been patching up "holes" in the budget and paying for trillion-dollar mega-projects.
"We need to understand that many of these resources have really been exhausted," Nabiullina said (she is quoted by TASS). The unemployment rate, according to Rosstat, has dropped to a historical minimum of 2.3%, and mass emigration and the drafting of men for the war have created a shortage of personnel, which the government estimates at 2 million people.
The Taliban at SPIEF: The usual large international audience of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum - the Taliban delegation is a must: in the afternoon they will hold a workshop entitled "To Stone or to Flay?".
Groups linked to the Chinese government have repeatedly hacked Russian companies and government agencies since the start of the Ukraine war, apparently looking for military secrets, the New York Times reported Thursday. Cyberanalysts say the hacker activity signals that China regards Russia — which it has a close partnership with — as a vulnerable target.
The Times reported that some experts believe that China sees the Ukraine war as a chance to collect information about modern warfare weapons and tactics, as China’s military lacks actual battlefield experience. A document drafted by Russia’s FSB counterintelligence agency and cited in the report said that China is seeking Russian defense expertise and technology and is trying to learn from Russia’s military experience in Ukraine.
Extrema Ratio: The Arctic in the Crosshairs: New Russian-Chinese Society, Trade and Submerged Dangers - Analysis The Northern Sea Route Shipping Line, a Russian-Chinese joint venture registered in late 2024, is a crucial strategic pillar for the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
Announced in June 2025 by Rosatom and New New Shipping, this partnership aims to establish a year-round container shipping line between China and Russia, offering the shortest trade route between Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific.
Russia, hit by Western sanctions, sees NSR as an opportunity for economic and strategic revitalization. Although the EU has not directly sanctioned Rosatom, the U.S. hits key figures such as Vyacheslav Ruksha.
The Arctic is witnessing increasing Russian militarization, with dual-use ports and joint Russian-Chinese military maneuvers, including the "Ocean 2024" exercise. Such activities fuel NATO concerns over the safety of submarine cables, including in the wake of suspected sabotage in the Baltic. China recognizes the potential of the NSR as a "Polar Silk Road," doubling travel by 2024 and increasing containers transported by 30 percent.
President Xi delivered a keynote speech on Tuesday at the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The summit produced a raft of consensuses across areas ranging from security and trade to regional development.
The Malian authorities have announced the start of construction of a new gold processing plant with a capacity of up to 200 tons per year. The project is being implemented with the support of Russia, Reuters writes . The controlling stake in the future enterprise belongs to the state of Mali. Construction is being carried out in partnership with the Russian group Jadran and a Swiss investment company. The new plant will be located in Senu, not far from the country's capital, Bamako.
In Europe…
Swedish FM Maria Malmer Stenergard arrives in Washington for talks with Trump officials on Ukraine, Iran, NATO Summit and the future of transatlantic relations. She will meet with Rubio on Friday morning.
The Latvian Saeima has adopted in the third and final reading a law banning the purchase of real estate in the country for citizens of Russia and Belarus, as well as for companies registered in these countries, the LSM portal reports. According to the document, which was supported by 69 deputies (with eight voting against), the restriction will also apply to legal entities where citizens of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus own at least 25% of the shares in the authorized capital and where they are beneficiaries.
Members of the European Parliament organized a flashmob to show support for the prisoners of Ivanishvili’s regime in Georgia.
Andrii Sybiha: “I am grateful to the House of Representatives of the Netherlands for adopting the motion recognizing the Soviet regime's 1944 mass deportation of Crimean Tatars as genocide.
This is a powerful gesture of solidarity with the Crimean Tatar people, who are still facing persecution under Russia’s temporarily occupation of the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula. Recognizing this historical injustice is critical not only for establishing truth and justice, but also for preventing future atrocities.
I thank the Netherlands for becoming the seventh country outside of Ukraine to recognise this crime as genocide, and I urge all other nations to do the same. This is the right thing to do.”
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez asked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today to exempt Spain from the alliance’s proposed 5% GDP defense spending target. Sanchez reportedly asked for a "more flexible formula" to opt out Spain or make the target optional. Currently, Spain spends just 1.28% of GDP, according to NATO estimates.
In other news…
U.S. officials have confirmed to CNN that non-sheltered USAF aircraft have been evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and U.S. Navy vessels previously forward-deployed at Naval Support Activity Bahrain have also repositioned. Additionally, medical logistics have been reinforced, with pre-positioned blood supplies deployed across the region in case U.S. forces are attacked.
American Airlines has suspended flights to Qatar's capital Doha, and United Airlines has suspended its daily flight to Dubai in the UAE due to the security situation in the region - ABC News.
“FINNAIR has told Helsingin Sanomat that it is canceling flights due to the escalating security situation in the Middle East. The flights have been canceled from today until Monday next week. Our experts are monitoring the situation in the Middle East, and today we came to the conclusion that the situation is so unstable that flights will not be operated.”
Israel’s defence minister said on Thursday: Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist” after Soroka hospital in southern Israel was hit during an Iranian missile attack, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports.
Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed – he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal, Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.
About 20 Israeli Air Force jets, guided by military intelligence, carried out a wave of strikes in western Iran. The targets included surface-to-surface missile infrastructure and Iranian military personnel. Trucks carrying missile packages were struck upon arrival at launch points.
Israeli jets struck several launch sites in western Iran after they tried to rebuild them. Air Force drones destroyed engineering equipment and killed dozens of Iranian soldiers.
Israel’s campaign shows no sign of letting up, with jets striking more military targets and nuclear facilities, including an inactive nuclear reactor at Arak.
Iran has now been disconnected from the global internet for 36 hours; live metrics show national connectivity remains in the low few percent of ordinary levels with only a handful of users able to connect via multi-hop VPNs
Donald Trump has denied a report in the Wall Street Journal that he has approved US plans to attack Iran, saying that the news outlet has “no idea” what his thinking is concerning the Israel-Iran conflict.
Trump’s decision is dependent on whether the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) would destroy the Fordow uranium enrichment site, a US official told Axios. Fordow, which is built into a mountain south of Tehran, is a target of Israel’s, but they lack the “bunker-buster bombs” and aircraft needed to destroy it; the US has access to both.
“We’re going to be ready to strike Iran. We’re not convinced yet that we’re necessary. And we want to be unnecessary, but I think the president’s just not convinced we are needed yet,” a US official told the outlet.
Trump quote, per his Press Sec: "... based on the fact that there's a substational chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks."
U.S. special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has reportedly spoken with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on the phone several times since Israel first launched air strikes on Iran on Friday. Reuters, citing diplomatic sources, said Araqchi reiterated what it would take for Tehran to come back to negotiations on its nuclear program: an end to Israeli attacks. The discussions have yet to offer any breakthroughs, but they represent the most substantive direct engagement between the U.S. and Iran since indirect nuclear talks began in April.
Europe is unlikely to shift U.S., Iranian or Israeli decision-making, but will likely play a role in the next phase of the conflict. If U.S. forces get involved, European bases in the region — such as the UK’s Diego Garcia and French and British facilities in the UAE and Bahrain — may be pulled into support roles. If the diplomatic path is taken, Europe may play a mediator or enforcement role, especially through the UN and IAEA.
The UK has updated its travel guidance to Lebanon on Thursday, warning on its website that “there is a risk of disruptions to air travel to and from Beirut airport due to ongoing hostilities in the region which could escalate quickly and pose security risks for the wider region.”