June 21: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
“We have a strategic advantage, why lose it? We're advancing deeper into Ukraine and will keep going. We don't need a ceasefire.”—Peskov, Kremlin spokesman
Stories we’re following…
'Massive' Russian drone attack on residential buildings in Odesa injures 13. Russian forces struck residential buildings in Odesa overnight on June 20, injuring at least 13 people, including three emergency workers, Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported.
A series of explosions were reported in Odesa on Friday morning. Reportedly after Shahed drone strikes.
Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 70 drones overnight. Russia launched 86 Shahed-type and decoy UAVs from multiple directions, 34 drones were shot down by firepower, 36 suppressed by electronic warfare.
Friday evening: Russia is preparing for a new missile strike. Four Il-76 aircraft delivered Kh-101 cruise missiles to Engels-2 for loading onto Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers. Currently, 3 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 are stationed there. Additional armed bombers are at Ukrainka airbase in the Far East.
Andrii Sybiha on Putin’s latest statements
Putin's cynical statements demonstrate complete disdain for US peace efforts. While the United States and the rest of the world have called for an immediate end to the killing,
Russia's top war criminal discusses plans to seize more Ukrainian territory and kill more Ukrainians. But, of all Putin's deranged statements today, one about the Russian soldier's foot stands out. In reality, wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, he brings along only death, destruction, and devastation.
Putin does not care about Russian soldiers or their feet torn apart by Ukrainian drones. He is a mass murderer of his own people. He already disposed one million Russian soldiers in a senseless bloodbath in Ukraine without achieving a single strategic goal. One million soldiers. Two million feet.
And, while Putin is busy sending Russian feet to invade other countries, he is bringing Russians inside the country to their knees economically. His cynical statements serve only one purpose: to divert public attention away from the complete failure of his quarter-century rule.
It has brought Russia into the shameful club of rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran, international isolation, and endless economic stagnation, which will only worsen.
The only way to force Russia into peace is to deprive it of its sense of impunity. Increase support for Ukraine's defense and hit the Russian economy hard with devastating sanctions. Designate Russia as a terrorist state. Isolate it fully. Bring Moscow back to its senses.
Ukraine has carried out its sixth POW exchange in recent weeks. Severely wounded and ill defenders, including some held for over two years, have returned home. Among them are fighters who defended Mariupol.
Russia's prison chief sentenced in absentia for torture chambers in Kherson Oblast. Arkady Gostev, head of Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service, was found guilty of orchestrating the transformation of captured Ukrainian prisons into torture sites.
Statement by Peskov on a potential ‘ceasefire’: “We have a strategic advantage, why lose it? We're advancing deeper into Ukraine and will keep going. We don't need a ceasefire.”
Combat Situation
President Zelensky: Russians had insane plans for Sumy region, but we are holding the line and destroying their forces. The region is defended.
Ukrainian marines repelled a major mechanized assault in Donbas. Russian forces attempted a breakthrough on the Kostyantynivka axis, launching a coordinated attack from multiple flanks.
Thanks to the effective actions of artillery units, ATGM teams, drone strike systems of the 36th Marine Brigade, supported by the 54th Mechanized Brigade and 101st Territorial Defense, the assault was repelled.
Zelensky appoints Brigadier General Shapovalov as new Ground Forces chief. Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov, born in 1978 in Kirovohrad Oblast, is a career officer who graduated from the Military Institute of Tank Troops in Kharkiv and later studied at the National Defense University of Ukraine.
“Change is needed — no question about it,” Zelensky said about naming Brigadier General Hennadiy Shapovalov the new head of Ukraine’s Ground Forces.
He pointed to Shapovalov’s work with NATO partners in Wiesbaden and said it’s time to bring both that international experience and real combat know-how into Ukraine’s military leadership.
A key defense plant in Tula, Russia, was hit twice in three days by drone strikes, forcing it to halt operations. The facility develops high-precision weapons including air defense systems. Damage includes a substation, warehouses, admin buildings, and a loading hangar.
Ukraine has formed a unified Drone Forces Group. All UAV units are now under a single command led by Robert “Madyar” Brovdi. The structure brings clearer coordination, unified tactics, and more systematic combat use of drones already proving effective on the battlefield.
American volunteer 1st US civilian killed in Russian strike on Ukraine, NYT reports. Fred Grandy, a 62-year-old American artist and volunteer who was killed in Russia's mass missile attack against Kyiv on June 17, appears to be the first U.S. civilian killed by a Russian strike on Ukraine, the New York Times (NYT) reported on June 19.
Behind the Lines
KBP halting weapons production: As a result of several attacks by Ukrainian drones, one of Russia's largest defense enterprises developing high-precision weapons, the A. G. Shipunov Instrument Design Bureau (KBP) in Tula, has stopped operations. This was reported to Astra by sources in the region's emergency services.
Cybercriminals breach Aflac as part of hacking spree against US insurance industry, potentially stealing Social Security numbers, insurance claims and health information, the company said Friday, the latest in a spree of hacks against the insurance industry. With tens of millions of customers, Aflac is the biggest victim yet in the ongoing digital assault on US insurance companies that has the industry on edge and the FBI and private cyber experts scrambling to contain the fallout.
Estonia has begun building a defensive line on its border with Russia. The first €4.4M phase includes 3-meter-deep trenches and 28 concrete bunkers. Ten storage sites are also planned. Similar fortifications are expected in Latvia and Lithuania.
The Danish Armed Forces have deployed floating drones in the Baltic Sea to protect underwater infrastructure and enhance surveillance amid the growing threat of hybrid attacks from Russia. The drones, developed by the US company Saildrone and capable of autonomous navigation for more than a year, will also allow them to monitor the shadow fleet of tankers that transport Russian oil. The arrival of Saildrone, a California-based company, has prompted criticism in Denmark over forging tighter bonds with the US in such a sensitive area as digital security.
Jonas Gahr Støre declared Norway’s support for the 5% target. In his opening statement, Støre explained the target is divided into 3.5% on “classic defence” spending including staff, investments, preparedness, and support for Ukraine, with the remaining 1.5% on “defence-related expenses” including on operational and industrial measures. Støre also reiterated his warning that Norway faces “the most serious security policy situation” since the second world war, as he also pointed to new risks arising from the crisis in the Middle East.
The Trump administration sent layoff notices today to more than 600 employees at Voice of America, a federally funded news organization that provides independent reporting to countries with limited press freedom, the New York Times reports.
The layoffs will reduce the staff at the agency to fewer than 200, around one-seventh of its total at the start of 2025. The notices put journalists and support staff on paid leave until they are officially let go on 1 September.
In March, Donald Trump accused Voice of America of spreading “anti-American” and partisan “propaganda” and called it “the voice of radical America”. He later signed an executive order that effectively called for the dismantling of the agency and put nearly all Voice of America reporters on paid leave.
Government of Pakistan Recommends President Donald J. Trump for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The Government of Pakistan has decided to formally recommend President Donald J. Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership during the recent India-Pakistan crisis.
At a moment of heightened regional turbulence, President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation, ultimately securing a ceasefire and averting a broader conflict between the two nuclear states that would have had catastrophic consequences for millions of people in the region and beyond. This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution through dialogue.
The Government of Pakistan also acknowledges and greatly admires President Trump’s sincere offers to help resolve the longstanding dispute of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan—an issue that lies at the heart of regional instability. Durable peace in South Asia would remain elusive until the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning Jammu and Kashmir.
President Trump’s leadership during the 2025 Pakistan India crisis manifestly showcases the continuation of his legacy of pragmatic diplomacy and effective peace-building. Pakistan remains hopeful that his earnest efforts will continue to contribute towards regional and global stability, particularly in the context of ongoing crises in the Middle East, including the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza and the deteriorating escalation involving Iran.
The United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, according to Reuters. The move comes amid escalating tensions in the region.
Globe and Mail: Greenland gives critical metals mining permit to Toronto-based company
Greenland on Thursday handed a 30-year permit to a European Union-backed project that aims to mine molybdenum, a critical metal used in aerospace, energy and defence and on which China has imposed export controls.
The resource-rich Arctic island has seen rising activity in its mining sector over the past month, after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed an interest in purchasing it earlier this year.
The permit was granted to Toronto-based Greenland Resources, a company backed by the European Raw Material Alliance, and holds the licence to the Malmbjerg project in eastern Greenland, the country’s government said in a statement.
The open pit Malmbjerg mine can produce an average 32.8 million pounds of concentrated molybdenum per year, potentially supplying around 25 per cent of Europe’s molybdenum use, according to the company.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China as they sneer at G7 summit fractures. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed their upcoming meeting and noted the supposed "rough edges" that emerged among G7 leaders during the recent summit, said Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, on June 19.
A delegation of the Taliban movement reached an agreement on a tenfold increase in the flow of Afghan labor migrants to Russia on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). This was reported to Baza by the head of the Russian Business Center in Afghanistan, Rustam Khabibullin. According to him, currently about 100 Afghan citizens are already working at construction sites in Russian regions, but another thousand are expected to arrive in the near future. "These are bricklayers, welders, painters, electricians and other highly qualified specialists," Khabibullin specified. He added that work permits for them in Chechnya, Dagestan and Krasnodar Krai are already being prepared.
Russia says South Africa invited Putin to G20 summit despite ICC arrest warrant. South Africa is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and a signatory to the Rome Statute, meaning it is obliged to arrest Vladimir Putin if he enters the country.
In September of this year, 11 regions of Russia will hold elections for deputies of legislative assemblies, and another 25 regions will hold elections for city council deputies. The period for nominating candidates will last until the end of July, but all five parliamentary parties, including the ruling United Russia, have faced a shortage of people willing to participate in the elections, regional politicians and party strategists told Verstka.
“Political apathy has reached a point where even systemic players find it unprofitable to participate. If you go [to the elections], you are under surveillance. If you win, you are under attack. It doesn’t matter at all whether you are loyal or not. You can pay too high a price for the decoration of politics,” says a member of the regional executive committee of United Russia in Novosibirsk Oblast.
On Thursday night, over 100 speakers at the Global Tech Weekend in Tbilisi received an email warning them not to discuss local or international politics in any way, or they would face immediate termination.
The British embassy in Tbilisi announced it canceled grants for civil society aimed at voter education and election monitoring for the upcoming municipal elections. The GD failed to finalize a decree for grant approvals, leaving no mechanism or timeline for decisions.
A criminal case was launched against activist Nino Datashvili over an incident at Tbilisi City Court during a sham hearing for regime prisoners. The regime claims Datashvili attacked a court security employee.
In Europe…
The EU will not go forward with plans to impose the $45 Russian oil gas cap. The proposal, which would have seen the maximum price of Moscow's oil slashed from $60 per barrel to $45, was due to be discussed Monday in Brussels by foreign ministers from across the bloc, but the Israeli-Iran war makes the plan unworkable.
At the Paris airshow, Macron stressed the importance of Eutelsat, saying it was a part of a broader push for Europe’s strategic sovereignty, as he urged partners to join France in raising even more capital. France is set to become Eutelsat’s biggest shareholder after a €1.35bn capital injection. Macron argued Eutelsat was the only “non-American and non-Chinese player” in space, and so it allowed to build a sovereign alternative for Europe.
At a high-level summit in Rome, Italy and the EU formalised their partnership with Africa through the Mattei Plan and Global Gateway initiatives, announcing significant investments in infrastructure, digital connectivity, and AI development—part of a broader effort to offer an alternative to Chinese influence
Poland’s EU minister Adam Szłapka, who led the country’s EU presidency from January, will become the new chief government spokesperson, prime minister Donald Tusk has announced. The move comes ahead of a broader government reshuffle after the ruling pro-European coalition’s defeat in the presidential election earlier this month.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan nominated Ilie Bolojan, a center-right National Liberal Party politician who served as acting president until Romania elected Dan to the role a month ago, for the prime ministerial post.
BBC News: China's military has called a British warship's recent passage through the Taiwan Strait a disruptive act of "intentional provocation" that "undermines peace and stability". The British Royal Navy says HMS Spey's patrol on Wednesday was part of a long-planned deployment and was in accordance with international law. The patrol - the first by a British naval vessel in four years - comes as a UK carrier strike group arrives in the region for a deployment that will last several months.
Reuters: How US military power looms over the Israel-Iran conflict.
Should the U.S. become involved directly in airstrikes, numerous bases it operates from, dotted across the Middle East, might support attacks against Iran as well as become possible targets for retaliatory missile strikes.
The U.S. has already moved some aircraft and ships from bases that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday. The U.S. embassy in Qatar also issued an alert on Thursday temporarily restricting its personnel from accessing the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East, which is located in the desert outside Doha.
Washington has also begun deploying more fighter aircraft — including F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighters — to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes, bolstering forces that can defend personnel and facilities by shooting down drones and other projectiles, U.S. officials said.
Other recent examples of the U.S. military buildup in the region include:
A large number of tanker aircraft sent to Europe earlier this week
The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group, which was sent toward the Middle East, joining the USS Carl Vinson already stationed nearby
B-52 bombers and fighter aircraft spotted via satellite imagery at the joint UK-U.S. military base, Diego Garcia, in the Chagos Islands
(Please take time to read the entire article as it goes into detail on the military posture of the US, Israel and Iran.)
In other news…
A US appeals court let Trump retain control of California's National Guard while the state's Democratic governor proceeds with a lawsuit challenging his use of the troops to quell protests in Los Angeles.
One of the most powerful men in the Trump administration, tasked with vetting thousands of staffers, Sergio Gor, hasn’t been fully vetted himself, The Post has learned. Three administration insiders told The Post that the vetter-in-chief has not turned in his Standard Form 86, or SF-86 — a more than 100-page set of questions required for officials who need security clearances.
Sergio Gor — the director of presidential personnel who recently convinced President Trump to yank an Elon Musk-endorsed nominee for NASA — has yet to submit official paperwork about his own background needed for a permanent security clearance, according to multiple sources.
Gor’s swift ascent from working as an aide to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) during Trump’s first term to occupying one of the most important roles in American politics has drawn admirers who view him as an effective enforcer of loyalty to Trump.
“Sergio has one of the toughest jobs in the administration,” one supporter said. “He has to say ‘no’ to a lot of people, including a lot of cabinet officials [and] a lot of times he’s telling people, ‘No, you can’t hire this person’ for their own good.’ … He has to say ‘no’ to a lot of officials who aren’t used to hearing the letters N and O put together.”
Mo: just a reminder that Gor accompanied Trump Jr to Greenland on behalf of Trump.
War on the Rocks: From the 1990s to 2022, Russia provided, off and on, important military assistance to Iran across the ground, aerospace, and naval domains, largely focused on hardware instead of technology transfers. In addition to Russian support to Iran’s nuclear program, this assistance included the provision of tanks, armored vehicles, anti-tank missiles, combat aircraft, helicopters, and surface-to-air missiles, among others. Assistance — at least in the 1990s — also entailed unofficial transfers by low-level Russian entities to Iran’s ballistic missile and suspected chemical and biological weapons programs.
Since 2022, Russia’s defense relationship with Iran has taken a big leap forward. Cooperation has moved past the previous patron-client dynamic, with Iran emerging as a key enabler of Russia’s air and ground campaign in Ukraine. Military-technical collaboration has intensified in existing areas, while also advancing to new frontiers such as the joint development of novel uncrewed aerial vehicles. Amid a general weakening of past constraints on cooperation, Iran and Russia have also taken steps to further institutionalize their defense relationship.
Reuters: Iran said it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under Israeli attack, as Europe sought to draw Tehran back to the negotiating table, with a decision on potential US involvement expected within two weeks. Meanwhile, Israeli official says 'it was a mistake' to say Bushehr was hit.
Iran has now been largely offline for 60 hours; metrics show the internet shutdown continues to severely limit the public's ability to express political viewpoints, communicate freely, and follow safety alerts amid ongoing conflict with Israel
IDF carried out a series of overnight strikes in Iran, targeting dozens of sites, including military industrial facilities for missile production and the SPND headquarters, linked to Iran’s nuclear weapons research program.
Mohsen Rezaei, Member of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council and former IRGC commander, said: “Our response is not complete and must be carried out; we will continue until the future of the country is secured.”
NYT: Iran is prepared to pursue nuclear weapons if the US strikes its uranium enrichment site at Fordow or if Israel assassinates Supreme Leader Khamenei, according to a new intelligence assessment.
IRGC announces the launch of the 17th wave of Operation “True Promise 3.” A combined missile-drone strike is underway using long-range and heavy warheads. Israeli media confirm serious damage in several places in Israel, struck by Iranian ballistic missiles.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment but said the prospect of zero enrichment would undoubtedly be rejected, especially while Israel was attacking Iran.
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is due to hold face-to-face talks with his counterparts from the UK, the EU, France and Germany, who are expected to call for Tehran to return to the negotiating table.
Iran's fragmented opposition groups think their moment may be close at hand, but activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Trump would make a decision on an Iran attack "within two weeks" (a favorite Trump time horizon). Special envoy Steve Witkoff has been maintaining direct communication with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House yesterday, and posted on X that a "window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution."
Al Jazeera reports that Merz and Erdoğan have discussed the conflict between Iran and Israel, according to a German government spokesperson. The outlet said that the pair spoke on the phone about diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation, with both agreeing to coordinate closely in future.