June 22: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
While the B-2 bombers were tasked to take out the Fordow facility, the US Navy were using 30 BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from US submarines to strike the Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan.
Stories we’re following…
Massive' Russian drone attacks on residential buildings in Odesa kill 1, injure 14. Russian forces struck residential buildings in Odesa overnight on June 20, killing a civilian and injuring at least 14 others, including three emergency workers, Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported.
Ukraine repelled a massive overnight air assault: 280 targets launched, including 272 Shahed drones, Kalibr, Iskander-K, and Kinzhal missiles. Air defense downed 260 threats, with Poltava region, especially Kremenchuk, as the main target. Debris fell in three locations.
Poltova-Kremenchuk—On the night of June 21, Russian troops again attacked critical infrastructure facilities and civilians with clusterbombs. The main blow fell on the Poltava region, in particular, on the Kremenchuk district. Around 50 explosions were heard. Energy infrastructure, including a refinery, was damaged. Fragments with metal ball bearings are being found across the city.
2 killed, 39 injured in Russian attacks against Ukraine over past day. Russian forces launched 86 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys against Ukraine overnight, the Air Force said. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 34 drones, while 36 disappeared from radars or were intercepted by electronic warfare.
Russian drone strikes on Ukraine might drop due to Iran-Israel conflict, Estonian intel says. "While it can be assessed that Russia has been able to largely localize and transfer the production of Shaheed and Geran-type drones to Russia, it can be assumed that some critical nodes for drone production continue to come from Iran," Estonian military intelligence commander Ants Kiviselg said.
Ukraine imposes new sanctions on Russian, Chinese, Belarusian companies involved in drone production. Ukraine introduced new restrictions as Russia has escalated drone attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.
Zelensky to attend NATO summit despite media reports that he will not attend. President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend a NATO summit in The Hague next week, the European Council confirmed on June 20.
Combat Situation
'Absolutely insane' — Zelensky condemns Russian offensive in Sumy Oblast amid Moscow's maximalist demands. President Zelensky condemned Russia's attempts to advance in Sumy Oblast, as Moscow intensifies its maximalist rhetoric.
Zelensky: "The situation in the Sumy region is a major problem for the 'Russians'. They want to 'sell' success in the Sumy and Kharkiv directions because if they don’t achieve corresponding results, President Trump is likely to exert more pressure on them through sanctions. This week, they advanced 200 meters toward Sumy, but we pushed them back by 200–400 meters. About 23% of all bombings and strikes along the front line are concentrated in the Sumy direction — mostly bombs and North Korean missiles, which are being recorded in large numbers."
Ukraine’s military intel struck a Russian fuel train. Eleven tankers are burning with smoke visible from up to 20 kilometers away. The railway line is reportedly destroyed, cutting fuel deliveries to the front for at least two weeks.
ISW: Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term demands for full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged.
Russia continues to field modernized Shahed drones, expand domestic drone production capabilities, and innovate long-range strike tactics.
The Russian government formally announced its intention to reassess Russia's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea over a year after the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published and subsequently deleted a similar proposal.
Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka.
Behind the Lines
Broken Record: Putin demands Ukraine recognize the so-called "referendums" in occupied territories. He warns that ignoring them could lead to renewed conflict. He also calls for Ukrainian neutrality and protection of Russian-speaking and pro-Russian residents.
'This is the best offer Ukraine can get today' — Russia won't back down as renewed peace talks loom. Russia's memorandum on a peace proposal is the "best offer Ukraine can get today," Russia's envoy to the United Nations (UN), Vasily Nebenzya, said at a UN Security Council meeting.
Le Monde reports the US secretly coordinated with Russia on a UN resolution ahead of the invasion anniversary. Washington pushed a “peace-focused” draft and urged allies to drop Ukraine’s version. France and the UK resisted, backing Kyiv. The US later abstained on its own text.
The Russian shadow fleet ship Marathon, also known as Udaya, has been filmed in Danish waters and is currently on its way to the Great Belt. The ship has a cargo of up to 100,000 tons of Russian oil and was also in the Danish waters of Storebælt last week. Here, according to the Danish Maritime Authority, the oil tanker deceived the Danish authorities by declaring a wrong flag and therefore sailed on. But the ship is in fact stateless, which is illegal according to international conventions.
Baltics, Nordics, Poland propose Schengen ban for Russians who fought in Ukraine. "There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens who have fought against Ukraine," Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro said. "We must take a clear stance, these individuals cannot freely travel across Schengen."
Kristen Michal: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are leading the way to strengthen EU borders. This is a common European interest and calls for more EU support for a safer Europe.
“Russia is testing our deterrence and resilience through destabilizing and sabotage activities, particularly along the eastern borders of the EU. We face additional pressure from the weaponization of migrants by Russia and Belarus”
There have been no Chinese diplomats in Lithuania since mid-May.
“As of now, there are no diplomats or staff members accredited to work at the People's Republic of China Embassy in Vilnius.”
Until recently, a single Chinese diplomat had remained in Lithuania. But after a brief trip abroad, he was refused re-entry on May 18 at Vilnius Airport. The Chinese official — who held a diplomatic passport but lacked valid accreditation — had exceeded the allowed 90-day stay permitted under Schengen visa-free rules for diplomats. “This person had exhausted the allowable time and could no longer rely on this exemption.” The Chinese national spent 9 hours at the airport before being returned to Istanbul.
This diplomatic rift dates back to autumn 2021, when Lithuania allowed Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius using the name Taiwanese Representative Office, rather than Taipei.
Beijing viewed the move as Lithuanian support for Taiwanese sovereignty efforts and retaliated by downgrading diplomatic ties. It renamed its embassy in Lithuania as the Charge d’Affaires Office. Lithuania’s mission in Beijing was similarly renamed. Despite China treating the relationship at a lower diplomatic level, Lithuania continued to regard both missions as full embassies and accused Beijing of breaching international norms. Lithuanian diplomats have since left China, as Beijing no longer recognizes their official status.
China has also attempted to accredit its diplomats in Lithuania as working for the Charge d’Affaires Office — a designation Vilnius does not recognize, leading to Lithuania’s refusal to issue new accreditations.
Sanctioned pro-Russian media are still part of Facebook's advertising revenue program, new research out Friday showed.
Russian state broadcasters, including Rossiya Segodnya — the organization that oversees both RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik — were sanctioned following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and barred from broadcasting inside the EU. Key figures in its operations face personal sanctions and travel bans. The EU announced the broadcasting ban in March 2022. Meta blocked access to RT and Sputnik for EU Instagram and Facebook users around the same time, labeling it an effort to curb misinformation.
POLITICO EU: Spain’s EU Commissioner Teresa Ribera mounted a backroom campaign to loosen Brussels’ landmark plan to ban Russian gas, according to five people familiar with the matter, as the bloc strains to kick its remaining reliance on Moscow for energy.
On Tuesday, the EU unveiled a long-awaited legal proposal that aims to snuff out Russian gas imports to the bloc by 2027, as Brussels attempts to crush a vital revenue stream for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine.But to do so, it also had to overcome a surprising hurdle: the EU’s powerful cleantech chief, a green champion and staunch backer.
June 20—US State Department Official Readout: Today, the United States and Sweden signed the Agreement on Technology Safeguards Associated with U.S. Participation in Space Launches from Sweden, or the U.S.-Sweden Technology Safeguards Agreement. The Agreement, upon entry into force, provides the legal and technical framework for U.S. commercial space launches from Swedish spaceports while ensuring proper handling of sensitive technology. The Agreement creates new commercial opportunities for the U.S. space industry and will deepen our cooperation with our partners in Sweden in this increasingly critical sector.
Sergei Tikhanovsky, jailed in May 2020 after announcing presidential run versus Belarus’ Alyaksandr Lukashenka and sentenced to 18 years, was set free and left the country.
Kellogg meeting Lukashenka on Saturday in Minsk. A US delegation has arrived in Belarus. Lukashenko has reportedly met with Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg. According to journalist Zabelina, Washington has been quietly engaging with Minsk for some time, focusing on thawing relations and “shielding Belarus from Russia.”
Talks between Lukashenko and Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg lasted over 6 hours, according to Russian media. Topics included US-EU sanctions on Belarus, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and ties with Moscow and Beijing. Lukashenko pardoned 14 political prisoners at Trump’s request.
Mo: Lukashenko is most likely working as a sherpa for the Kremlin—a way for Putin to speak to Trump in other words.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Defense industry wages have stopped growing, investments may also decline
The Ministry of Industry and Trade expects that the Central Bank will ease its credit policy as early as April, which will give the economy a new impetus
The economy is approaching a certain turning point, which will happen in April-May, said First Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Vasily Osmakov on March 24 in the Federation Council at parliamentary hearings "On the implementation of state technology policy and national projects to achieve the national goal of "technological leadership". In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Trade expects the Central Bank to soften its monetary policy.
Starting from September 1 of this year, advertising placed on platforms banned in Russia, including Instagram and Facebook (owned by the Meta corporation, recognized as “extremist” in the Russian Federation), will be considered an administrative offense. As Vladimir Logunov, deputy head of Roskomnadzor, stated on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, previously published integrations must be removed before this date; otherwise, violators will be fined.
Putin has proposed using the recipes of the last years of the Soviet Union to achieve growth in the Russian economy, which has been put on a war footing.
In the coming years, defense plants should start producing products for civilian industries, Putin said in a keynote speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
"It is necessary to achieve the alignment of the defense industry with the civilian sector, to start producing dual-use products that are in demand in the field of marine and river engineering, in aircraft manufacturing, the electronics industry, in the production of medical equipment, in agriculture, and so on," Putin listed.
He added that the military-industrial complex had "gained good momentum," had increased output many times over, and was developing new types of weapons and equipment. However, in the future, it was necessary to move away from "dividing companies into purely military-industrial and into enterprises operating exclusively in the civilian segment," the president said.
Russia is forcibly recruiting Central Asian migrants with false promises of fast money through short-term contracts, Ukraine’s intel reports. Many are killed on the front. Among the latest dead: Uzbek and Tajik citizens used in the most dangerous sectors.
Bryon Wan: This action by the FDA follows mounting evidence that some of these trials failed to inform participants about the international transfer and manipulation of their biological material and may have exposed Americans’ sensitive genetic data to misuse by foreign governments including adversaries.
This practice was made possible by a data security rule finalized under the Biden Administration in Dec 2024. While the rule imposed export controls to limit sensitive data transfers to countries of concern, the Biden Administration specifically requested and approved a sweeping exemption that allowed US companies to send trial participants’ biological samples — including DNA — for processing overseas as part of FDA-regulated clinical trials. This exemption applied even in cases involving companies partially owned or controlled by the CCP.
Reuters: New Zealand has suspended millions of dollars in budget funding to the Cook Islands, it said on Thursday, as the relationship between the two constitutionally-linked countries continues to deteriorate amid the island group's deepening ties with China.
A spokesperson for Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in a statement that New Zealand had decided in early June to suspend payment of NZ$18.2 million ($11.0 million) in core sector support funding for 2025-26 as this "relies on a high trust bilateral relationship".
In Europe…
CTV: Canada-Europe security and defence pact to be signed Monday in Brussels.
A security and defence partnership pact Prime Minister Mark Carney will sign with European leaders in Brussels on Monday will be among the most wide-ranging agreements with a third country Europe has ever reached, a senior EU official said on Friday.
Carney is flying to Europe Sunday for a Canada — EU Summit, planned for Monday evening with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
At the G7 summit in Alberta on Monday von der Leyen confirmed that the agreement will be signed on Monday in Brussels, calling Canada a “key partner.”
“This is an ambitious one,” the official said. “And actually we’ve had this with a number of global partners, but the one with Canada would be one of the most far reaching of its kind that the EU has ever signed with a third country. It will open up new avenues for joint work on crisis management, military mobility, maritime security, cyber and cyber threats, and defence industrial co-operation.”
“The real challenge there is to get Canadian businesses and also European businesses to take it up … and to start doing more business across the Atlantic, but that also requires political leadership,” Hampson said. “It hasn’t been fully ratified but that’s something (Carney) can perhaps impress upon the Europeans.”
Canada and Germany will help fund the expansion of Ukraine’s production of interceptor drones, according to President Zelensky.
European foreign ministers said that they are ready for further talks with Iran following a three-hour long conversation on Friday.
The foreign ministers of France, Britain, Germany and the European Union made brief remarks but did not say whether there had been any tangible progress, Reuters reports.
French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said that France expects from Iran an opening to discussion including with the US to achieve a negotiated solution to the Iran-Israel crisis.
Barrot also said that Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran is prepared to continue discussions on nuclear talks and other issues.
Meanwhile, German foreign minister Johann Wadephul said that it is important that the US is involved in further talks and in finding a solution to the conflict.
UK foreign minister David Lammy echoed similar sentiments, saying that the UK urges Iran to continue their discussions with the US.
Reuters: Iran said on Friday it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there was no room for negotiations with the U.S. "until Israeli aggression stops". But he later arrived in Geneva for talks with European foreign ministers at which Europe hopes to establish a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear programme.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters Iran was ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment but that any proposal for zero enrichment - not being able to enrich uranium at all - would be rejected, "especially now under Israel's strikes".
Terminally ill people in England and Wales are to be given the right to an assisted death in a historic societal shift that will transform end-of-life care.
After months of argument, MPs narrowly voted in favour of a private member’s bill introduced by Labour’s Kim Leadbeater, which could become law within four years.
Her bill, which passed by 314 to 291 votes, a majority of 23, was hailed by campaigners as “a day for the history books, where facts have prevailed over fear”.
The emotional debate in parliament was dominated by pleas from opponents of the bill for stricter safeguards against coercion by abusers, concern from disabled people and warnings about the fundamental change in the power of the state when granted new rights over life and death.
In other news…
AP: Trump signed an EO on Thursday granting TikTok a 90-day extension to continue operating in the United States, further postponing the potential national ban unless a deal is reached to sell the platform. This is the third extension Trump has granted.
While there is no clear legal basis for the extensions, so far there have been no legal challenges to fight them. Trump has amassed more than 15 million followers on TikTok since he joined last year, and he has credited the trendsetting platform with helping him gain traction among young voters. He said in January that he has a “warm spot for TikTok.”
CNN: A federal judge has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration’s efforts to keep Harvard University from hosting international students. The order from US district judge Allison Burroughs preserves the ability of Harvard to host foreign students while the case is decided. It marks another victory for the Ivy League school as it challenges multiple government sanctions amid a battle with the White House.
In LA, Vance calls California senator Alex Padilla, 'Jose Padilla', confusing Democrat with convicted al-Qaida plotter
At a news conference in Los Angeles on Friday, JD Vance responded to a question from Mary Margaret Olohan of the far-right Daily Wire, about Democratic lawmakers getting placed in handcuffs, by attempting to make a joke about the California senator, Alex Padilla, who was forcibly detained by the FBI in the same location last week. The vice-president, however, mistakenly called California’s first Latino senator “Jose Padilla”, using the name of an American citizen who was arrested in Chicago in 2002 and accused of planning to detonate a radioactive dirty bomb in a major US city on behalf of al-Qaida.
Anita Anand: In the coming hours, Canadians in Israel and the West Bank who have registered will receive details of land transportation options to a safe third country where commercial air transportation is available.
For Canadians in Iran, we have now increased consular support at multiple border crossings to assist with onward air travel to a safe third location. We are also in touch with neighbouring jurisdictions that will offer support. All those who requested assistance will receive the information directly.
Russia would react 'very negatively' to Iran leader's assassination, Kremlin says. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that any attempt at regime change in Tehran or threats to its leadership would "open Pandora's box," deepening instability across the Middle East and beyond.
Going through the motions: Turkey, Oman, Italy, and Norway have offered to host US-Iran talks, according to CBS. Despite the outreach, Tehran has yet to respond to Washington’s latest proposal.
Reuters—No negotiations: Israel said it killed Saeed Izadi, who, its defense minister said, financed and armed Hamas during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel.
Two senior Quds Force operatives were eliminated, according to the IDF. One overseeing the “Palestine Corps” and the other in charge of weapons transfers. They were targeted in a safehouse nearly 1,000 km from Israel.
Amin Four Judhi led the IRGC UAV unit and was linked to the October 7 attack on Israel. Bhanam Shahriari, commander of the Kedem weapons transport unit, was responsible for arming Iran’s proxies across the Middle East.
Iranian nuclear scientist Dr. Seyed Isar Tabatabai Qomsheh and his wife were reportedly assassinated at their home in an attack last weekend. Tabatabai had long worked in Iran’s nuclear industry and held advanced degrees in mechanical and nuclear engineering.
Iran continues to publish obituaries of its military personnel killed in ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Among the dead are air defense crews, missile operators, radar technicians, and other key staff.
Defence Geek (0828 EST): We now have confirmation that they're taking at least 6 B-2 bombers out with them, comprising callsigns: MYTEE11, MYTEE12, MYTEE13 - operating as flight of 3 ; MYTEE21, MYTEE22, MYTEE23 - also as flight of 3.
Second refuel group for B-2s comprising at present 4x KC-46A Pegasus airframes is getting airborne north of San Fransisco and heading north: 17-46035 - callsign "HIFI81" 18-46045 - callsign "HIFI82" 16-46016 - callsign blank 16-46012 - callsign blank
Explosions reported in Isfahan, Iran on Saturday afternoon. Preliminary reports suggest a strike on nuclear facilities.
Israeli forces have carried out heavy bombardments on the Iranian city of Ahvaz.
Israeli media report that Iranian drones are attacking numerous places across Israel. Israeli warplanes are also flying over the Syrian capital, Damascus, pursuing the drones.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that Iran will not agree to reduce its nuclear activities to zero, according to a statement published on the website of his office
At 14:26 on Saturday: Trump returned to the White House Saturday night and held a National Security Council meeting. At this time, most analysts believed he was torn between hitting weakened nuclear sites and avoiding the prolonged US involvement he campaigned against. However, with the news today that the American B-2 Bombers sorties had begun, our assessment was that the strikes would occur.
Axios was reporting at this time that Trump and Erdoğan tried to arrange secret US-Iran talks in Istanbul to ease tensions amid the Israel-Iran war, Axios reports. The effort collapsed after Iran’s Supreme Leader, reportedly in hiding, refused to approve the plan. Trump had offered to join talks to avoid conflict.
16:09: The US has evacuated 79 embassy staff from Tel Aviv. They were flown by military transport to Bulgaria and will continue on to Washington. This is the second evacuation flight in the past week.
At 4:46 pm: Trump published a post on Truth Social:
President Trump spoke from the White House hours after strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran. He said “our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity,” and warned that more attacks could come “if peace does not come quickly.”
Hafsah Malik, Timeline of U.S. Airstrikes on Iran (All times in Iranian local time): •
Before 1:00 AM – Israeli drones triggered air defense systems across multiple Iranian regions
1:14 AM – Fighter jets reported over Shiraz
1:22 AM – Multiple aircraft spotted over central Iran
2:04 AM – Two jets (likely bombers) and a loud explosion reported near Qom close to the Fordow nuclear facility
2:13 AM – Explosion heard near Kashan, another city in proximity to Fordow
2:38 AM – Explosion at Fordow. Initially believed to be an intercepted drone later proven false
2:41 AM – Loud blast reported at Isfahan’s Atomic Energy Facility
2:46 AM – Explosion heard at Natanz Nuclear Facility
2:55 AM – Widespread GPS jamming observed across.
10: 07 pm EST: Houthis in Yemen ready to attack American ships and warships in the Red Sea.
22:40: Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a serious warning, declaring that "Americans should expect greater damage and heavier blows than ever before.
Iran's atomic agency says the country will carry on with its nuclear activities despite US attacks on key facilities. - AFP
