June 23: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Please note: I’ll be travelling in the next few days, so E-Stories will be out in a limited format.
Official State Department Advisory: The conflict between Israel and Iran has resulted in disruptions to travel and periodic closure of airspace across the Middle East. There is the potential for demonstrations against U.S. citizens and interests abroad. The Department of State advises U.S. citizens worldwide to exercise increased caution. Please read carefully our Travel Advisory, country information, and any recent security alerts when planning travel at
Stories we’re following…
Early Monday morning: 44 drones over Kyiv, all aimed at striking purely civilian targets - apartments, shopping areas, suburbs. This is already the 3rd wave. Thousands took shelter in the underground. Most residents reported intense attacks, including at the KPI dormitories, much more damaging than the attacks on the Solomianskyi district in Kyiv.
Overnight on Saturday/Sunday, Russia launched 47 Shahed drones and 3 missiles at Ukraine. The main target was Chernihiv region. Ukrainian air defense downed 28 drones across the north, east, and south. Strikes hit at least 7 locations including Chernihiv, Sumy, and Odesa regions.
At least 13 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. Russia launched 272 drones overnight, including Iranian-designed Shahed-type suicide drones, along with two aeroballistic missiles and six cruise missiles, Ukraine's Air Force said.
A Russian strike hit Kramatorsk, partially destroying a 4-story building. A man born in 1955 was rescued, along with a woman and a 14-year-old girl. In Sloviansk, a 17-year-old was killed. Over 40 structures damaged, three injured, and major fires extinguished.
Ukrainians forcibly deported by Russia held in basement without food, water, media reports. Over 45 Ukrainians forcibly deported by Russia from Ukraine's occupied territories are being held in a basement at Russia's border with Georgia without food, water, and basic healthcare, independent media outlet Astra reported on June 21.
In March, Vladimir Putin turned things up a notch in passportisation. In a decree aimed at boosting the Kremlin’s campaign to force Russian passports on Ukrainians in Russia and occupied territories, Putin demanded that residents obtain Russian passports, “leave” by September 10, or refuse and face the consequences.
Putin’s executive order simply presents a “false semblance of choice” while creating new pretexts for arrests and expulsions. Russia’s retaliation against Ukrainians who refuse to change their citizenship has been well documented, and those who want to “leave” occupied areas can’t necessarily do so safely. What’s more, even “deportation” is not a guarantee of being returned to Ukraine.
Ukraine planning diplomatic overhaul to win stronger global support against Russia. "The president has already made certain personnel decisions regarding the heads of some foreign institutions, because the criterion is very simple: results," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on June 21.
President Zelensky: I have signed a decree introducing new Ukrainian sanctions – targeting those who collaborate with the occupier on our land.
These are individuals and legal entities that do business in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, including Crimea, help justify the aggression, consider it normal to profit under occupation, and pay taxes to the occupier.
This is just the beginning of a broader effort to impose sanctions on such individuals. We have information from our special services and will respond in a principled fashion. Further decisions on sanctions will follow soon.
We are identifying all the schemes used to benefit the occupier – and therefore, to work against Ukraine – and shutting them down. We are also working to fully synchronize Ukrainian sanctions with those of our partners. Justice must prevail in every jurisdiction and genuinely restrict all those who have chosen Russia and war.
Combat Situation
Ukrainian Defense Forces have liberated the village of Andriivka in the Sumy region, stabilizing the vulnerable left flank.
As reported on June 21, footage of the Russian fuel train that was struck near Tokmak.
The Kremlin has turned Crimea into a military staging ground and a tool to pressure the Muslim world, warns the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People. In a statement to the OIC, they describe the peninsula as a place of fear, repression, and forced erasure of Tatar identity.
Ukrainian forces face about 10,000 Russian troops in Kursk while repelling repeated drone and missile attacks and utilizing long-range strikes damaging Russian economic and military targets.
Ukraine's top military leader announced plans to intensify and broaden offensive operations against Russia, reaffirming the defense of the Kursk region territory Kyiv currently controls and signaling a buildup of military pressure on Moscow.
Russia has over 1,950 strategic missiles, Ukraine's military intelligence tells media. Russia produces up to 195 missiles per month, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) told the news outlet RBC-Ukraine.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: Ukraine leads Russia in FPV drone use, but Russia has the edge in fiber-optic drones. Russian drones can reach up to 40 km, while Ukrainian-made versions are catching up with 20 km range. Work is ongoing to close the gap.
Transitioning to army corps will enable Ukraine to launch counteroffensives. The first corps units are already in position. Next steps include further deployment and full restructuring. Each corps combines several brigades with support elements to form a breakthrough force.
Russia 'afraid to admit' scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers' bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says. Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Behind the Lines
Norwegian defense giant Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace has opened an official office in Ukraine. The company behind NASAMS, already shielding Ukrainian cities, now partners directly to co-develop new air defense solutions. Focus areas: interceptor production, maritime defense, and scaling delivery capacity.
Bloomberg: Canada’s cybersecurity agency said Chinese-backed hackers were likely behind recent malicious activity targeting domestic telecommunications infrastructure, warning that three network devices registered to a Canadian company were compromised in the attacks.
The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation urged Canadian organizations to take steps to harden their networks against the threat posed by Salt Typhoon, a group linked to the Chinese government, in a bulletin issued late on Friday.
“The Cyber Centre is aware of malicious cyber activities currently targeting Canadian telecommunications companies,” the center said. “The responsible actors are almost certainly PRC state-sponsored actors, specifically Salt Typhoon,” it said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
The hackers will “almost certainly” continue efforts to infiltrate Canadian organizations — especially telecom providers — over the next two years, the agency said.
'My husband is free' — Belarus opposition leader Siarhei Tsikhanouski freed after US envoy visits Minsk. Belarusian opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski was sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges in 2021. SOTA media provided a clip of the press conference:
"The daughter did not recognize her father." Sergei Tikhanovsky burst into tears when asked about meeting his children.
At a press conference in Vilnius, Tikhanovsky thanked everyone who helped release him and other political prisoners and answered journalists' questions.
The opposition leader said that he had a hard time in prison: he spent five years in solitary confinement and more than three years in complete isolation. "I've been fattened up for the last month - butter, cottage cheese, fats. And I look like this. If I hadn't been given attention, imagine what would have happened," — the politician added.
When asked how his meeting with the children went, the man burst into tears. "The daughter did not recognize her father because we see how political prisoners change in prisons," — explained Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
Re-Upping this: Trump administration sends layoff notices to 600 Voice of America staff, NYT reports. U.S. President Donald Trump's crackdown against Voice of America has been celebrated by Russian propagandists, who welcomed the cuts to the network.
Foreign Policy: Asia’s Autocrats Welcome USAID’s End
Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump have gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the long-standing U.S. program focused on humanitarian aid. But despite cries of outrage from much of the world, there are many in Asia who are happy to see it gone—and not just in China. Many people in the region, including government leaders, believe that the U.S. sponsorship of the nongovernmental organization ecosystem is in truth a vast conspiracy that could threaten their leadership. It is, they believe, the hidden hand behind protests and dreaded “color revolutions.” Paranoia and projection play a big role in this, but there is also a grain of truth.
In Cambodia, long-standing autocrat and former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who recently nominally handed power over to his son, posted on Facebook to celebrate the Trump administration’s move to cut off funding to broadcasters such as Radio Free Asia, praising its “courage to lead the world to combat fake news.”
In India, a dubious claim by DOGE that it had canceled a $21 million contract intended to improve voter turnout in India was seized upon by a member the prime minister’s economic advisory council as a sign of something nefarious.
“$21M for voter turnout? This definitely is external interference in India’s electoral process. Who gains from this? Not the ruling party for sure!” wrote Amit Malviya, who leads the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) National Information and Technology Department.
For opponents of U.S. influence, the shredding of USAID is a great moment. Encouraged by the rhetoric of the Trump administration, they are inclined to see U.S. funding as the supposed originator of the domestic protests and agitations that they fear—and as promoting values antipathetic to their own views and regimes.
Vanity is one factor at play here, with local elites preferring to blame outsiders and conspiracies for their own mistakes. So is paranoia, a natural outcrop of autocracies where internal plots are often real and governments lie on a regular basis.
Finally, there is projection. Sponsoring grassroots groups (of varying degrees of genuineness) and distributing cash as a political tool to help pack out rallies, form the core of a protest, or provide muscle as needed are all normal behavior for many politicians in many countries. Prabowo’s long-standing relationship with the alleged gangster— or so-called “mass organization”—leader Hercules has recently come under scrutiny. And organized social media harassment of democracy activists is par for the course in countries such as Thailand.
Such views are also encouraged by actors including Russia and China—whose elites often genuinely believe in these theories. Chinese President Xi Jinping has spoken about foreign powers exporting color revolutions. Banning or limiting the work of foreign NGOs has become commonplace in autocracies.
The result is sort of a weird mirror of how U.S. conservatives viewed international organization Communist International, or the Comintern, during the Cold War. Behind every incident of popular unrest across the world lies not a complex web of local factors and actors, but the hidden hand of Moscow—or, in this case, Washington.
But there is also a shard of truth. Just as the Soviet Union did genuinely try to sponsor revolutionary movements—with varying degrees of success—the United States has also, for decades now, sponsored organizations that it sees as contributing to a liberal democratic civil society. This is a good thing, but inevitably, nonliberal and nondemocratic regimes see this as a threat.
Many of the United States’ democracy promotion programs during the Cold War were explicitly started with the idea of propagating U.S. influence, undermining its foes, and maybe someday promoting regimes friendlier to it. The critics of Trump’s moves who pointed to the effect it would have on U.S. “soft power” were right—but soft power is still power. [continue reading]
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russian economy recession warnings 'greatly exaggerated,' Putin claims, denies war in Ukraine 'killing' growth. The statement comes after warnings from his own officials about stagnation and looming recession.
On Wednesday evening, Putin spent more than two hours fielding questions from foreign journalists at the SPIEF. He dismissed fears of a Russian attack on NATO as a Western ploy to distract from domestic economic failures, repeated Kremlin talking points questioning Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy, and claimed that any journalist close enough to witness a recent missile strike on Kyiv wouldn’t have survived. He also quoted the Bible.
A confidential report submitted to the ICC alleges that the Russia-linked Wagner Group disseminated videos depicting alleged atrocities in northern and central Mali over the period spanning late 2021 to mid-2024.
Szabolcs Panyi, How EU taxpayer money is spent in Orbán’s Hungary: Welcome to Tengőd, where €20K in EU funds went to the “reconstruction of landscape features” — meaning a few benches + some vaguely planted trees. The mayor, by the way, was already under investigation in another fraud case.
In Europe…
NATO members agree to increase defense spending to 5%. Spain had sought to block the measure, but ultimately dropped its opposition after a deal was reached for it to be exempt It is expected that all members will vote in favor during the Summit this week
The EU is looking to extract billions of extra euros from frozen Russian assets by moving them into riskier investments — via a plan that would increase aid to Ukraine while avoiding accusations of stealing Moscow's money.
The EU executive is considering transferring almost €200 billion of frozen Russian state assets held in Belgium into a new, riskier investment fund that would pay out higher interest, four officials with knowledge of proceedings told POLITICO.
The goal is to generate more profits to help keep Ukraine’s war-battered economy afloat amid U.S. president Donald Trump’s threats to halt funding. The assets were frozen in 2022 in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine asks allies to earmark 0.25% of GDP for joint defense production, Zelensky says. Ukraine is currently in talks with Denmark, Norway, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Lithuania on weapons development partnerships, according to the president.
Prime Minister Mark Carney departed for Europe on June 22, 2025, to attend EU and NATO summits focused on security and defence in Brussels and The Hague. At the EU summit, Canada is expected to sign a key security and defence agreement to join the ReArm Europe initiative, enabling access to a 150-billion-euro loan program for procurement.
The Kremlin-backed Matryoshka bot network is inciting conflict between Moldovan President Maia Sandu and EU Commission Vice-President Kaja Kallas, spreading videos on social media claiming Sandu could replace Kallas, according to the Bot Blocker project. Launched on June 19, these videos, one disguised as a DW report and another as a Euronews interview with former EU diplomat Josep Borrell, falsely suggest Ursula von der Leyen supports replacing Kallas, who allegedly struggles with her role. This campaign precedes the Moldova-EU summit on July 4 in Chișinău, seen as recognition of Sandu’s reforms.
The Iranian hacker group Homeland Justice is chipping away at the digital infrastructure of Albania.
Homeland Justice, a group the Albanian government has directly tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched a cyberattack on the capital of Tirana on Friday, saying it was “just the beginning” in a post on Telegram.
“Tirana’s municipal services were paralyzed and it was all your own choice," the group said, referring to Albania hosting about 3,000 members of an exiled Iranian opposition group.
In other news…
CNN: US deployed bombers over the Pacific as a 'decoy' during Iran operation
The US military operation against Iran on Saturday, codenamed “Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER,” involved more than 125 aircraft and a deception operation that saw bombers deployed over the Pacific as a “decoy,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters on Sunday.
The unprecedented operation involved seven stealth B2 bombers. Bombers dropped more than a dozen 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on two Iranian nuclear facilities, Fordow and Natanz, Caine said. Tomahawk missiles were launched at Isfahan.
All told, more than 125 aircraft were involved, including the B2s, refueling tankers, reconnaissance planes and fighter jets. The bombers struck Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan beginning at 6:40 p.m. ET and were out of Iranian airspace by 7 p.m. ET, Caine said.
At least one GBU-57 bomb was dropped on the nuclear complex in Natanz. Satellite imagery shows a crater approximately 5.5 meters in diameter directly above a section of the underground facility. This area is believed to house the main hall containing the largest number of uranium enrichment centrifuges.
Maxar satellite images show the massive level of destruction at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site. On the left, before the attack, and on the right, afterwards.
In short: Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER
7 x B-2 Bombers delivering 14 x GBU-57 MOPs
5th and 4th gen fighters supporting SEAD
No shots fired at the strike package (ingress or egress)
Lead B-2 dropped 2 x GBU-57 to start strike mission
TLAM's struck Isfahan to close out MIDNIGHT HAMMER
UN Secretary-General António Guterres: “I am deeply concerned by today’s use of force by the United States against Iran. This is a dangerous escalation in an already volatile region and a direct threat to international peace and security.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry: China strongly condemns US attack on Iran.
Exx-Alerts: Russia, China and Pakistan propose UN draft resolution for an immediate unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East.
Brady Africk: Damage to Iran's Fordow fuel enrichment facility after U.S. strikes is visible in new imagery from Maxar.
At least three GBU-57A/B impact points are visible. Tunnel entrances have been sealed with dirt, possibly indicating efforts to isolate damaged underground sections.
This is rich: Lavrov stated that Israel has no right to "interpret the UN Charter on self-defense" as a license to decide on its own when to invoke that right. This comes from the mouth of someone who has been citing the UN Charter for four years straight to justify a treacherous attack on Ukraine.
The Iranian Foreign Minister is flying to Moscow today for consultations and will meet with putin tomorrow. Dmitry Medvedev: "A number of countries are ready to supply Iran with nuclear weapons."
Araghchi said the U.S. “crossed a very big red line” and that Iran will defend itself by all means necessary, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called the strikes a historic action.
On June 22, 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced he will travel to Moscow on Sunday to meet President Vladimir Putin following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
MAGA reaction: Trump’s sudden announcement Saturday night that he bombed three Iranian nuclear sites has Republican skeptics of U.S. military action against Iran largely falling in line. After the president posted on Truth Social that the U.S. has bombed Iran, several GOP critics cheered the strikes as a limited action.
“Iran gave President Trump no choice,” Charlie Kirk, a conservative activist and critic of GOP war hawks, said on X. “For a decade he has been adamant that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon. Iran decided to forego diplomacy in pursuit of a bomb. This is a surgical strike, operated perfectly. President Trump acted with prudence and decisiveness.”
“President Trump basically wants this to be like the Solimani strike — one and done,” Gaetz wrote. “No regime change war. Trump the Peacemaker!
Vance: “I empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents.”
Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.): “To the naysayers out there, this isn’t starting a war, this is ending one,” he said. “Iran has been at war with America for 46 years. The Iranian people should rise up and put an end to this murderous regime.”
Trump's strikes were constitutionally unsanctioned is more mainstream with Democrats. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) floated impeaching Trump for striking Iran without explicit authorization from Congress. House Dems are not in alignment with AOC’s position.
Mo: Assessments are flying around this Sunday about the extent of the damage done to Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted on Saturday: sat images and other forms of OSINT. Some accounts are stating that trucks were taking materiel from the Fordow nuclear site, but that could be anything quite frankly. It’s too early as a battle damage assessment has not been published, and E-Stories doesn’t deal in mal-or disinformation.
Sunday morning political talk shows with Trump’s people: The U.S. is ready to return to negotiations with Iran as early as tomorrow, Senator Marco Rubio said. “If they call and say they want to meet and talk — we’re ready. The president made that clear from the start. He prefers a diplomatic solution.”
POLITICO: Iran said on Sunday that U.S. airstrikes overnight against three key Iranian nuclear facilities will have “everlasting consequences” as Tehran asserted its right of self-defense against what it called a “grave violation” of international law.
The U.S. bombing of Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites was “extremely dangerous, lawless and criminal behavior,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X early Sunday.
The American attacks “are outrageous and will have everlasting consequences,” he said. “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people.”
Department of Homeland Security releases a National Terrorism Advisory, warning of possible attacks by Iran or its proxy groups in the United States.
Britain was informed of the U.S. military strikes on Iran ahead of time, but did not receive any U.S. request for their shared Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean to be used, senior minister Jonathan Reynolds said on Sunday. The UK was not involved in the strikes but has deployed additional fighter jets to the area and is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its key allies if they face any threats.
Iran has "struck back" after US attacks, targeting civilian areas in Israel. Residential buildings were destroyed, with at least 14 injured. Several structures were reduced to ashes.
Iran accuses the US of grossly violating the UN Charter with its strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. FM Abbas Araghchi called the facilities peaceful and warned of serious consequences, stating that Iran reserves the right to self-defense.
Iran has launched the Kheibar missile at Israel for the first time. The Kheibar, or Khorramshahr-4, is a medium-range ballistic missile with a 2,000 km range and high maneuverability. Known for its heavy warhead and interception evasion, it's a major asset in Iran’s arsenal.
Iran has struck central Israel, targeting cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv. Israeli media report significant damage and injuries. Emergency crews are on the ground responding to the aftermath.
Iranian state outlets are circulating maps of US military bases near Iran, declaring that every American soldier is now a legitimate target.
War Translated: Iran’s jamming GPS in the Strait of Hormuz, messing with ~970 ships, per Windward. UKMTO confirms the interference. Faulty AIS coordinates are screwing up navigation in the Persian Gulf. The IRGC threatens to shut the strait down in hours.
Up-date 15:05 (Iranian time): Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Final decision needs approval from the National Security Council.
Chinese media: The Iranian parliament approved the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament reportedly approved the measure.
Israeli Air Force has launched a new wave of strikes targeting military sites in western Iran. Earlier today, it hit missile launchers prepared to fire at Israel, IRGC personnel, and launch systems that had recently been used during attacks on Israel.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi has called an emergency meeting of the agency’s Board of Governors for June 23 in response to the “extraordinary situation” unfolding in Iran.
IAEA chief Grossi: Iran informed us that radiation levels at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have not changed. “Our inspectors are on the ground, but to do their job, hostilities must cease. We need swift and decisive action to return to serious, stable negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.”
The IDF confirms airstrikes on two Iranian F-5 fighter jets at Dezful airport. Earlier this morning, eight missile launchers were destroyed, including six ready to fire at Israel.
Last night, around 20 Israeli jets struck dozens of military targets in central Iran, including explosive production sites, weapons depots, air defenses, and military infrastructure at Isfahan airport.
