June 24: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
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Stories we’re following…
Russia's mass missile, drone attack on Kyiv kills 5, injures 13. Russia launched a wave of missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and surrounding region overnight on June 23.
Kyiv woke up on Monday morning to the horror of Russia over night strikes. A Russian strike obliterated an entire apartment block entrance in Shevchenkivskyi district. Strikes also hit Podilskyi, Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Solomianskyi and Darnytskyi districts. So far: 6 dead, 19 injured.
Maria Avdeeva: Came to the site of Russian atrocity in Kyiv. It was 7 killed. Then they found 11-year-old girl and her mom under the rubble. Now it’s 9. Tell me — if this isn’t genocide, what is?
Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on an educational institution in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, according to the regional administration. The building was destroyed, and members of the teaching staff may be trapped under the rubble. Fortunately, no children were present due to summer break.
An assassination attempt on Zelensky was planned in Poland — the plot was being prepared right at Rzeszów airport. According to Ukraine’s Security Service chief Vasyl Maliuk, several scenarios were considered. One involved an FPV drone strike, another — a sniper attack. “It was prepared by a military pensioner, a Polish-Russian agent (..) firmly believed in the Soviet idea and had been carrying out the intention for years. So, he was activated”, said Malyuk.
ISW: Kremlin officials are leveraging the Russian education system to indoctrinate children into the mythos of the Soviet Union's role in the Second World War and create a centralized state ideology that will shape generations in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine, likely to justify a protracted war in Ukraine and a future military conflict against the West.
The Russian Ministry of Education has excluded the Ukrainian language from the school curriculum, the study of which as a native language was mandatory in the captured territories of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. The department's order states that the decision was made in connection with the "changed geopolitical situation in the world," Kommersant reports. Ukrainian was also taught in annexed Crimea, the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, and Bashkortostan. In these regions, parents of schoolchildren had to write an application for training. The order applies to primary, basic and secondary general education programs, i.e. it implies the complete cancellation of the course.
3 killed, 14 wounded as Russia strikes Ukrainian military training facility. "Unfortunately, there are some dead and wounded," the statement read. The Ground Forces said that greater personnel losses were avoided thanks to the timely security measures taken when the air raid alert was issued.
Combat Situation
Russia seeks to advance along almost entire eastern front, Ukraine holding ground in Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi says. As of mid-June, Ukrainian defenders are fighting close to 695,000 Russian troops in Ukraine across a 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) front, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
ISW: Russian forces have continued to pursue long-standing operational objectives on the battlefield in Ukraine throughout Spring and Summer 2025 and will likely remain committed to these objectives for the coming months.
Russian forces are currently engaged in intense combat operations along most of the frontline in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts and appear to be prioritizing offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast - as they have since October 2023.
Russian forces currently appear to be advancing as part of at least three simultaneous large-scale offensive operations in the Borova-Lyman, Kostyantynivka, and Novopavlivka directions, however. Russian forces also appear to be allocating significant manpower to offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast, although Ukrainian forces appear to be slowing Russian gains in that area.
Russian forces have failed to make significant gains during this period of intensified offensive operations, however, due in part to the fact that Russian forces are largely relying on poorly trained infantry to make gains in the face of Ukraine's drone-based defense.
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy oblast. Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka.
Ukrainian drones struck the “Atlas” facility in Rostov oblast, part of Russia’s state reserve system. Atlas stores and supplies strategic materials like fuel, lubricants, food, and tech gear. FIRMS fires are observed.
Ukraine's deep strikes cost Russia over $10 billion this year, Syrskyi says. This includes $1.3 billion in direct damage. The estimated cost-to-result ratio of Ukrainian deep strikes is 1:15, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.
Ukraine destroys 80% of Russian drones despite air defense missile shortage, Syrskyi says. Ukraine needs to have many times more surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft missile systems to ensure reliable defense of cities and critical infrastructure facilities, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
Behind the Lines
The Insider: For the first time, a Russian warship has openly escorted “shadow fleet” tankers through European waters. The unprecedented operation in the English Channel marks a significant development in Russia's efforts to shield its oil trade from international sanctions — now using military force.
The escort was first reported by Mark Douglas, a maritime domain awareness analyst at New Zealand-based Starboard Maritime Intelligence. Douglas spoke with the All Exclusive project, explaining that automatic identification system (AIS) data revealed coordinated movements between three vessels starting June 16.
Norway to invest $400 million in Ukraine's drone, air defense missile production. Norway will invest $400 million in Ukraine’s defense industry to support drone production, President Zelensky said on June 22. The two countries also agreed to jointly produce air defense missiles.
US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker tells reporters that "it is undeniable, the reason we are so focused on increasing defense investment to 5% is because of Russia, and the long term threat Russia poses to NATO security"
President Zelensky arrived at Windsor Castle to discuss Ukraine’s defence and how to put additional pressure on Russia, his presidential spokesman said, as reported by Reuters. Zelenskyy will meet King Charles, prime minister Keir Starmer and the speakers of both Houses of Parliament, the spokesman said. He added that the president would also talk to Ukrainian military personnel who are being trained in Britain and representatives of think-tanks.
TVP World: Volodymyr Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a new defense co-production initiative on Monday during a short visit by the Ukrainian president to London to discuss his country's defense against Russia. Zelensky said that Britain’s support for Ukraine saved “thousands of people’s lives” from Russian strikes, as he called for further assistance and stricter sanctions on Russia
“I'm really proud that this afternoon, we're able to announce an industrial military co-production agreement – the first of its kind so far as Ukraine and the UK are concerned – which will be a massive step forward now in the contribution that we can continue to make,” Starmer said.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russian Railways is postponing the implementation of the third stage of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway expansion project due to a lack of funding, said Andrei Makarov, deputy head of the transport monopoly, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
The $10 billion project, with which the Kremlin hoped to expand the capacity of the railways and increase the export of raw materials to China, is being postponed until 2026-27, according to the top manager.
"We were supposed to start the first work at the beginning of this year. Now it is being postponed for at least a year. But in reality, we see that there will probably be a delay here in two years," Makarov said (he is quoted by RBC ). The money allocated in the Russian Railways budget for other major railway construction projects this year has also been almost exhausted.
Rossotrudnichestvo will allocate more budget places in Russian higher education institutions for students from North Korea, said the head of the federal agency, Yevgeny Primakov. "There is a certain request to increase the quota, which is supported by our government. We will announce its increase in the near future," he told RIA Novosti. Primakov could not name a specific figure, noting that the decision is still being worked out, but now Russia allocates 100 places for North Koreans in its universities.
According to him, such students are most interested in technical specialties. "These are very talented, motivated guys who then return to the DPRK... They are happy to study at the Far Eastern Federal University, the Irkutsk Technical University, in Kazan and at Baumanka in specialties related to computer science, materials science," Primakov specified. He also announced the readiness to allocate free places to citizens of Afghanistan, whose recruitment to universities is currently "on hold." According to him, for this "a very clear and understandable decision" is needed from the Taliban, in particular, so that they agree to let their young people study in Russia.
Steven Rosenberg for the BBC—Today's Russian papers: “Trump becomes the President of War", "Trump makes America Wage War Again.” Plus, Putin’s comment that “Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that’s ours.” One paper calls this Putin’s “political faith and long-term political strategy.”
On June 20, 2025, Russia's state-owned manufacturer Uralvagonzavod significantly intensified the mass production of its T-90M Proryv main battle tank, signaling a transformative acceleration in Russia's strategic capacity for prolonged land warfare.
Based on findings from the latest Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) report, the analysis reveals that production of the T-90M has tripled compared to 2020-2021 levels and could reach 1,000 units annually by 2028. This development comes amid the depletion of Russia's legacy tank reserves and highlights a structural shift in Moscow's approach to sustaining frontline armored formations during the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Vedomosti: Rosatom negotiates construction of large-capacity nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan
On June 20 at the SPIEF , Rosatom and the Agency for the Development of Atomic Energy under the Government of Uzbekistan (Uzatom) signed an agreement on the main conditions for the construction of a 2 GW nuclear power plant in the republic, a Vedomosti correspondent reports from the signing ceremony.
The agreement stipulates that the parties will study the possibility of building two VVER-1000 power units with expansion to four such units, follows from the Rosatom statement for signing. Reactors of this type operate in Russia and at foreign sites - in China (Tianwan NPP) and India (Kudankulam NPP).
Rosatom will also be building another nuclear power plant in Central Asia – in Kazakhstan. In mid-June , the Kazakhstan Atomic Energy Agency decided that the Russian state corporation would lead an international consortium to build a nuclear power plant in the republic. The nuclear power plant in the Almaty region on the shore of Lake Balkhash is expected to be built by 2035. The cost of the project is estimated at $11.2 billion.
New Russian narrative: Ukraine is using Kazakhstan's airspace to carry out drone attacks on Russian territory, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. "On June 19 and 20, several dozen Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were recorded flying over the territory of the West Kazakhstan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, apparently with the aim of launching strikes in Russia," the agency said in a statement on Saturday.
June 23: An explosion occurred in a nine-story residential building on Uchinskaya Street in the north of Moscow. As a result, the first floor caught fire, the city's Emergencies Ministry reported. The department's employees found one dead person "at the center of the fire." Eight rescuers and three units of equipment are working at the scene. According to the city Department of Health, four people were injured , two were hospitalized in moderate condition. Two were given assistance on the spot. Another 20 residents were evacuated.
The Telegraph: Beijing turns to influencers in fresh Chinese propaganda effort
The video by IShowSpeed, who has more than 40m subscribers on YouTube, was perhaps the clearest example yet of Western influencers promoting China’s technological capabilities and culture. It marks a new frontier in Chinese propaganda efforts, as the country seeks to control the narrative overseas and not just at home.
Russia and China are already believed to be spending as much as £8bn a year to bolster their media presence globally, primarily in developing countries in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. It is a trend that has raised particular concerns in Britain amid crippling cuts to the BBC World Service.
However, China’s latest initiative to attract influencers, described as the “ultimate cultural exchange”, demonstrates a more concerted effort to win hearts and minds.
The Communist Youth League of China is inviting influencers under the age of 35 with more than 300,000 social media followers to apply to take part in a 10-day trip that will include visits to Suzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Handan and Beijing. Successful applicants can apply to have their travel expenses reimbursed.
For government officials, the motive is clear. By harnessing the “authentic” voices of influencers, Beijing wants to target a more subtle way of spreading soft power.
“It’s becoming more sophisticated,” says Neil O’Brien, of the China Research Group of Tory MPs. “Less crass stuff and more new media. Lord knows how much they are spending.”
Georgian Dream regime has sentenced opposition leader Mamuka Khazaradze to eight months in prison and barred him from holding public office for two years after he refused to participate in a controversial parliamentary commission led by the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Khazaradze, co-founder of the opposition party Lelo, did not attend the court session. He remains at the party headquarters with fellow opposition figure Badri Japaridze, whose sentencing is scheduled for 5 PM local time today.
Earlier in the day, Judge Jvabe Nachkebia also sentenced Girchi – More Freedom leader Zurab Japaridze to seven months in prison on similar charges of defying the parliamentary commission.
More verdicts are expected in the coming days. On June 24, the court is set to announce the sentence for Strategy Aghmashenebeli leader Giorgi Vashadze, while Givi Targamadze’s verdict is scheduled for June 27. Additional cases involving other prominent opposition leaders — including Nika Gvaramia, Nika Melia, and Irakli Okruashvili — are currently under judicial review.
Badri Japaridze of Lelo became the third opposition politician to receive a prison sentence in a single day for defying summonses from the Georgian Dream parliamentary investigative commission, which is tasked with probing alleged crimes by the former UNM government and other officials. Badri Japaridze was sentenced to eight months in prison, the same term handed down earlier in the afternoon to his party colleague Mamuka Khazaradze. Earlier still, Zurab Japaridze of Girchi — More Freedom, who had already been in pretrial detention after refusing to pay court-imposed bail, was sentenced to seven months in prison.
Orban demands Brussels scrap plans to ban Russian energy, citing surging prices after US strikes on Iran. With Middle East tensions driving instability, Hungary pushes to keep Kremlin gas flowing.
In Europe…
This past weekend, Zelensky announced the “Build with Ukraine” initiative: a new program that will finally allow Ukraine to export its defense technologies to European allies. It’s a striking pivot for Ukraine from recipient of foreign military aid, to defense exporter in support of the rest of Europe.
On 23 June 2025, during the the EU-Canada Summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will hold a press conference together with António Costa, President of the European Council, and Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada.
The summit is an opportunity to enhance the EU-Canada strategic partnership and for leaders to reinforce their cooperation at different levels, from trade to economic security, energy, crisis management, and justice and home affairs, in light of the rapidly changing geopolitical and economic context.
Russians who have applied for asylum in the European Union are refused in three out of four cases, according to Eurostat statistics.
Last year, the approval rate of applications from Russian citizens was only 24.4%. In total, 10,625 Russians applied for refugee status in EU countries, about 60% of them were men. The largest number of applications were received in Germany - 4,700. Another 2,135 applications were recorded in France. From 250 to 885 applications were submitted in the Netherlands, Croatia, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Poland and Spain. Compared to 2023, the number of refugees from the Russian Federation has halved: then almost 19 thousand Russians applied for status.
Kaja Kallas: “While all eyes are on the Middle East, people are dying in Kyiv as Russia bombs Ukraine every day.”
NATO’s 32 members are gathering in The Hague for their annual summit kicking off tomorrow. Top of the agenda: whether the alliance will boost its defense spending target to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%. The idea has gained traction, with several NATO members saying the increase is needed amid threats from adversaries like Russia. Spain was granted an exemption on Sunday — Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez saying his country will spend 2.1% on defense, “nothing more, nothing less.”
NATO chief Mark Rutte gave a press conference ahead of the Summit, and repeatedly criticised Russia for its unprovoked aggression on Ukraine. As he makes this argument, he declares:
This is the reason why I think also last year in Washington, Nato allies agreed that … there’s an irreversible path of Ukraine to enter Nato.
And that is still [true] today and it will still be true on Thursday after this summit.
Asked again about Spain again, Rutte declares that Nato “has no opt outs,” and the alliance “does not know side deals.” He says Spain will make its sovereign decision on how to deliver on its Nato commitments, and annual reports on spending will provide for a mechanism to check how it’s progressing.
Rutte points out Russia as the biggest threat facing the alliance, as he declares its support for Ukraine.
“Of course, the most significant and direct threat facing this alliance remains the Russian Federation.
Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine with the support of North Korea, Iran and China, as well as Belarus.
We all want peace for Ukrainian people and an end to the terrible war against them.
We must continue to make sure Ukraine has what it needs to defend today and deter in the future.
Rutte said Russia is massively investing in its forces, and working ever closer with North Korea, China, Iran to strengthen military presence “to levels we have never ever seen before.” He says:
“So the international security situation has changed dramatically, and that means that this summit is so important.”
NATO will continue to provide Ukraine with the necessary military support, said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during a press conference in The Hague, where the NATO summit will be held on June 24-25. According to him, the participating countries have agreed to allocate 35 billion euros to Kyiv for defense needs.
"Our support for Ukraine will remain strong and unwavering. New assessments show that European allies and Canada have stepped up their efforts to provide Ukraine with more than 35 billion euros in additional security assistance over the coming year," Rutte said (quoted by Politico ).
Britain will commit to spending 5% of its GDP on defence by 2035 after weeks of diplomatic pressure and intense negotiations with allies. The decision came as Keir Starmer, the prime minister, prepared to join Nato leaders at a summit dominated by global conflict and expectations of European military self-reliance. The UK’s pledge aligns with Nato’s new spending targets – but at a slower pace than key allies including Poland. Britain pushed for and secured a later date.
Russia preparing military operations in Europe, Zelensky says. "We are observing a continued intellectual decline within the Russian leadership and have evidence that they are preparing new military operations on European territory," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Zelensky expected to speak at Council of Europe parliamentary session next week. President Zelensky is expected to address the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly on June 26 during its summer session in Strasbourg, though his attendance has not been confirmed. The session agenda includes discussions on Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine.
Italy has frozen Russian oligarchs’ assets valued at around €2.3bn ($2.64bn) since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, data provided by Italian authorities show, with the most recent seizures occurring at the beginning of the month, Reuters reported. Italy seized assets – including bank accounts, luxury villas, yachts and cars – as part of the European Union’s sanctions against the Kremlin and its backers. The Bank of Italy had said that at the end of June 2023 their value amounted to $2.5bn.
EU institutions can no longer continue tense talks on new rules to combat corporate greenwashing after Italy decided to withdraw its support for the bill.
The decision means a landmark EU law clamping down on companies making misleading environmental claims is all but dead.
"We have been instructed to communicate to you that Italy does not support the adoption of the proposal and supports a withdrawal of it by the Commission," Italy told the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU over the weekend, in a text seen by POLITICO.
The UK government has said it will ban Palestine Action under anti-terrorism laws, making it a criminal offence to belong to the pro-Palestinian campaign group which last week damaged two UK military planes in a protest.
In other news…
Axios: The complexity of Operation MIDNIGHT HAMMER — which amounted to the largest ever B-2 strike — required meticulous planning from the Pentagon that likely stretched back years.
In the first days after Israel launched its unprecedented attack on Iran, Trump hoped a swift nuclear deal could end the war before it escalated further.
From the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada earlier this month, he began coordinating with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to arrange a high-level meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Istanbul.
Trump was prepared to send Vice President Vance and White House envoy Steve Witkoff — or even travel himself to meet Iran's president, if that's what it would take to reach a deal.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was in hiding over fears of assassination, couldn't be reached to authorize the talks — and constant Israeli airstrikes made it too dangerous for Iranian officials to leave the country.
On Friday afternoon, a day after suggesting the attack could be delayed, Trump gave Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth the green light to launch the B-2 bombers.
Several hours later, the stealth bombers departed their base in Missouri. Some flew west as decoys. The real strike group headed east toward Iran, according to Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine.
While at Bedminster, Trump gave the final go ahead when the Stealth bombers were approaching the point of radio silence.
The bottom line: Trump still wants a deal with Iran — and wanted one before the bombers took off, an adviser to the president told Axios.
Reuters: Airlines are weighing how long to suspend Middle East flights as a conflict which has already cut off major flight routes entered a new phase.
Global shares slipped while oil prices briefly hit five-month highs and the dollar firmed as the world held its breath to see if Iran would retaliate against US attacks on its nuclear sites. The attacks have injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic outlook.
Iran's Strategic Shift: Ditching GPS for Beidou In a move that has significant implications for both regional and global technological landscapes, Iran has made a decisive choice.
It has shut down all GPS services within its territory and officially activated the Chinese Beidou Navigation Satellite System. This decision comes at a time when Iran faces geopolitical tensions and the need for more reliable navigation solutions.
In terms of national security, the military can operate with enhanced precision and reduced vulnerability to external interference.
AP: The gate of Iran's notorious Evin prison in Tehran is hit in a suspected Israeli strike, Iranian state television says. Evin prison is known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West. (Mo: hitting the gates is a symbolic act.)
Overnight, IDF drones struck six airfields across Iran, destroying 15 Iranian combat aircraft and helicopters. The strikes damaged runways, underground apartments, a refueling plane, and F-14, F-5, and AH-1 aircraft.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz says the IDF is delivering "unprecedentedly powerful strikes on regime targets and repressive government bodies in the heart of Tehran." Reports indicate one of the targets was Evin Prison, notorious for holding political prisoners.
Israel has reportedly again targeted the nuclear facility in Fordow. Last night, US bombers struck this nuclear facility with 30,000lb GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators using B-2 stealth bombers.
Iranian media report strikes hit the Ministry of Energy building and the Basij HQs of the IRGC in Tehran.
Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and called the strikes on Iran an unprovoked act of aggression with no justification. He claimed Russia is making efforts to support the Iranian people.
"I'm glad you are in Moscow today. This gives us an opportunity to discuss all these pressing issues and to think together about how we might find a way out of the current situation."
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, asked whether Iran has requested military assistance: “We are working with Iran in various areas, it would be irresponsible to disclose details of this cooperation” – Interfax.
WaPo: A majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents oppose U.S. military intervention in Iran, an Economist/YouGov poll taken in the days leading up to the bombing found. And nearly identical percentages of Democrats and Republicans agreed that the U.S. should negotiate with Iran first.
Iran's Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters Spokesman: “As we punish their illegitimate child aggressor, the criminal America must know—it has unleashed the warriors of Islam. We will not back down from striking its interests and military.”
Iran said that the US attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called President Donald Trump a "gambler" for joining Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Iranian missiles over Jerusalem: Israeli sources confirm power outages in northern Israel following impacts. Iranian missiles reportedly hit Ashdod in southern Israel, targeting a power station. Al Jazeera also reports explosions heard in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei, on European countries, says silence and indifference to injustice turns countries into 'accomplices'. (This is rich.)
The US has asked China to stop Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route.
Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi announces that Iranian security officials who want to defect and join the revolution are contacting him. Today, he’s creating a mechanism for them to sign up to the cause. Their security will be guaranteed in exchange for joining the revolution. For the complete text of Pahlavi’s speech, read here.
Trump has hinted at regime change in Iran in Truth Social posts while his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appears to contradict him saying that the US operation is not open-ended.
The US military base Kasrak in the Syrian province of Hasaka has been put on full alert amid threats of possible attacks from Iran or armed groups supported by it, Reuters reported, citing sources in Syrian military circles. According to the agency, the maximum alert regime has also been declared at the US military base Ain al-Asad in Iraq. In addition, as IRIB News writes, the alarm has been raised at US bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.
The Israeli Air Force has launched another wave of strikes on targets inside Iran. Reports indicate explosions and activity in Tehran, Karaj, and Isfahan.
IDF reports: "This is what the headquarters and assets of the Iranian regime targeted in Tehran look like."
A senior Iranian official tells CNN that Tehran wants the US to “pay directly” for its actions, accusing Washington of hiding behind Israel while avoiding the consequences. The official says Iran is prepared for a conflict that could last up to two years, calling recent pause proposals a “deception.”
Iran is reportedly preparing to strike US bases in the Middle East. Qatar has closed its airspace "until further notice," according to the country's Foreign Ministry.
Doha, Qatar — Footage has emerged showing Iranian missile launches, reportedly intercepted. Iran also fired rockets targeting US forces in Iraq.
Qatar intercepted an Iranian missile attack, though some debris fell inside the country, according to preliminary info. Doha has issued a strong warning, vowing retaliatory strikes against Iran.
Meanwhile, air raid sirens are sounding in Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet and the Joint Maritime Operations Center.
The Cipher Brief: Experts say Iran’s response likely reflects Iran’s diminished capabilities. Before the Iranian missile barrage earlier today, former CIA Director General David Petraeus told The Cipher Brief that Iran’s “means of response is dramatically reduced”: Tehran’s proxies are out or on the ropes — Hezbollah has been “decapitated and decimated,” Hamas is already degraded, and the Assad regime in Syria is gone. General Petraeus also noted that Iran’s missile forces have likewise been weakened due to surgical Israeli attacks.
“It would be careless to think that they don't have options in the gray zone,” former CIA Station Chief Ralph Goff told us, raising asymmetric responses like cyberattacks or targeted assassination attempts. “They've been hurt, they've been pushed back, but they still have capabilities there.”