June 26: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Please note that E-Stories will not be coming out on June 27.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russia has launched over 28,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine since 2022, with nearly 10% fired in June alone, Zelensky says. Speaking on June 24, Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Russia would never have been able to carry out such drone attacks without support from Iran, and Ukraine, in turn, could not have intercepted most of the drones without the help of its international partners.
“I supported Ukraine. They wanted to beat me,” says Oleh, recalling the Russian school where he was bullied every day for loving his homeland. He’s 9. Three years ago, he ended up under occupation. And like thousands of other children, he became a hostage of propaganda.
Before the war, Oleh lived in eastern Ukraine with his big family. But on February 24, 2022, everything changed. “It was terrifying. Helicopters flew so low, we thought they’d blow the roof off,” recalls his mother Tetiana. ⠀ Later, the family — like many others — was offered a place in a “recovery camp” in Russia. The promised 20 days turned into three months of forced deportation.
Update: ‘Dead and wounded everywhere’ — Russian attack on Dnipro kills at least 18, injures nearly 300. Russia launched a deadly missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on June 24, striking civilian infrastructure and a passenger train, local officials reported.
Macron condemned Russia’s strike on Dnipro and other cities, saying Moscow refuses peace while Kyiv agreed to Trump’s ceasefire proposal over three months ago.
“Russia bombs, kills, violates international law — and is never held accountable. It cannot keep killing with impunity.”
President Zelensky has signed an agreement at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in The Hague on the establishment of a Special Tribunal to hold Russia accountable.
While we are focusing on Iran and all the stupidity and craziness in the world, Don't forget what Ukrainian men, and women, are going through.
Combat Situation
ISW: The Kremlin continues efforts to augment Russian combat power by setting conditions to subsume forces from Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies under a Russian military command.
Russian forces are expanding their use of motorcycles along the frontline in Ukraine — a tactic that the Russian military may leverage in future wars beyond Ukraine, possibly including operations against NATO states.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Kherson City.
Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka.
Russia has ramped up production of Iskander missiles thanks to imported equipment from China, Taiwan, and Belarus, — Kyiv Independent reports. In the past year alone, over 700 missiles were produced — three times more than in 2023.
Ukrainian forces have cut in half a massive Russian military train in occupied Tokmak, they are now attempting to destroy the rest of the 40 carts with pinpoint strikes.
Ammunition depots in Chita, Russia are still burning after being bombed earlier in the day by Ukrainian drone forces. The intense fire at the ammunition depots is also confirmed by NASA's FIRMS fire detection map.
Explosions have been reported at a military ammunition depot in Russia’s Zabaykalsky Krai. Russian media indicate that a fire erupted at a military facility near the village of Velikaya Tura. Official statements attribute the incident to a "dry grass fire," while eyewitnesses claim to have heard at least 50 explosions.
Behind the Lines
The Cipher Brief: President Trump said today he was willing to let China keep buying oil from Iran, because the money can be used “to put that country [Iran] back into shape.”
Allowing Iranian crude to more freely flow to China would mark a reverse in policy to curb Iran’s oil exports — the U.S. has sanctioned Chinese “teapot” refineries which buy Iranian oil, as well as “shadow fleet” tankers which transfer that oil. With China being the main buyer of Iranian oil, a lifting of restrictions would be a boon for both Tehran and Beijing — a potential calculated act of goodwill from Washington to two of its fiercest rivals.
Those who have supported implementing strong U.S. sanctions against Iran over the years — both Republicans and Democrats, by the way — likely aren’t thrilled with this decision, especially because Iran has a habit of using its money to fund those who kill Americans.
Council of Europe, Ukraine to sign accord on June 25 to set up Russian aggression tribunal. The move marks a milestone in international efforts to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials accountable for launching the full-scale war against Ukraine.
Lt. Gen. Grinkevich, nominated by the US to lead NATO forces in Europe, believes Ukraine can win the war against Russia: “When your homeland is under threat, you fight with a determination we can barely imagine — because we’ve never faced such a situation.”
Zelensky meeting with Trump: Zelensky presented evidence that Russia had transferred the bodies of Russian soldiers disguised as Ukrainian fighters. He also showed the American leader battlefield maps that demonstrate how Russian successes have been greatly exaggerated by their propaganda.
Zelensky added he and Trump discussed the purchase of U.S. air defense systems. Ukraine is ready to buy the equipment and support American defense manufacturers, with possible assistance from Europe.
President Zelensky met with the leaders of the E5 format — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland — and the NATO Secretary General. He emphasized the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s air shield, focusing on air defense systems and interceptors for Iranian Shahed drones. They also discussed increasing pressure on Russia, which is intensifying offensive operations and showing no willingness to end the war. Zelensky stressed the need for action against Russia’s energy and banking sectors, its shadow fleet, and called for secondary sanctions.
The United Kingdom has announced a new aid package for Ukraine, which, for the first time, will be funded using interest accrued from frozen russian assets. The package includes 350 UK-manufactured air defense missiles, rapidly adapted for ground launch. The delivery is valued at £70 million. The missiles will be deployed using Raven systems previously supplied by the UK. Five additional systems are currently en route to Ukraine, bringing the total number available to Ukrainian forces to 13.
A new Russian stablecoin, A7A5, has quietly moved $9.3bn through a Kyrgyz crypto exchange in just four months, a Financial Times investigation reveals. The token is linked to a sanctioned Russian defence bank and fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Șor, and is believed to be part of a Kremlin-backed effort to bypass Western sanctions and fund political influence campaigns abroad.
Ilan Șor, now operating from Russia, was convicted of stealing $1bn nearly 12% of Moldova’s GDP in a massive bank fraud. His party was banned for serving Russian interests, but he’s still funding political operations from abroad using Kremlin-linked money.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Putin has decided not to attend the BRICS summit in Brazil because of the country's position on the order of the ICC in The Hague, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday. According to him, Russia will be represented at the summit, which is scheduled for July 6-7, by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
"The president will participate via video link in the main events of this summit. This is due to certain difficulties in the context of the ICC requirements, you know, and it is in this context that the Brazilian government could not take a clear position that would allow our president to participate in this meeting," Ushakov said.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Chinese government is asking its rare-earth companies to provide lists of employees with technical expertise. Beijing is reportedly tracking these experts to ensure they don’t go abroad and divulge trade secrets — going as far as asking some to turn in their passports. It’s a sign that China does not want to give up its dominance over the production of rare earths, which are used in everything from fridges to F-35s. U.S. dependence on Beijing for critical mineral supply chains could lead to disaster in the future
VSquare: Slovak PM Robert Fico's lawyer and advisor David Lindtner had no known Russia ties—until he appeared in Moscow. His trip was arranged by LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky and his Russian Peace Foundation, which closely works with the GRU.
PM Viktor Orbán says “the voices of common sense” opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership prevailed at the summit in The Hague. He warned the fight isn’t over: “The first battle is won—next stop: Brussels.” Orbán hinted at upcoming pressure based on a national survey on Ukraine’s EU accession.
In Europe…
Europeans oppose following Trump if he pushes Ukraine to cede territory, lift Russia sanctions, poll finds. The wide-ranging survey also asked about attitudes to increasing defense spending and compulsory military service.
Italy commits $1.6 million to boost Ukraine’s battle against landmines. Ukraine has reduced its mined territory by over 20% since late 2022, but around 137,000 square kilometers (52,900 square miles) — much of it farmland — remain hazardous, according to the State Emergency Service.
Decode39: BYD Italy joined the association representing foreign carmakers in Italy to deepen its foothold in the country. With a booming 40% global sales jump in 2024, new European production plans and heavyweight hires, BYD is positioning its EVs as mass-market favourites—while Italian tyremaker Pirelli navigate its own China ties.
Passengers booked on Eurostar train services have been urged to cancel or delay their trips after a huge theft of cable in France, which threatened to disrupt the Nato summit in the Netherlands.
Nato leaders have committed to invest 5% of GDP annually on defence and security-related spending by 2035 “to ensure our individual and collective obligations” are met, according to the final text of the Hague summit declaration adopted.
members will submit “annual plans” proving “a credible, incremental path to reach this goal,” with a more comprehensive review of the progress made in 2029.
32 countries’ reaffirm “ironclad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5.”
support to Ukraine and noting that its “security contributes to ours,” but stops short of directly condemning Russia.
Russia poses a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security.
THE HAGUE SUMMIT DECLARATION
1. We, the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in The Hague to reaffirm our commitment to NATO, the strongest Alliance in history, and to the transatlantic bond. We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty – that an attack on one is an attack on all. We remain united and steadfast in our resolve to protect our one billion citizens, defend the Alliance, and safeguard our freedom and democracy.
2. United in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism, Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035 to ensure our individual and collective obligations, in accordance with Article 3 of the Washington Treaty. Our investments will ensure we have the forces, capabilities, resources, infrastructure, warfighting readiness, and resilience needed to deter and defend in line with our three core tasks of deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.
3. Allies agree that this 5% commitment will comprise two essential categories of defence investment. Allies will allocate at least 3.5% of GDP annually based on the agreed definition of NATO defence expenditure by 2035 to resource core defence requirements, and to meet the NATO Capability Targets. Allies agree to submit annual plans showing a credible, incremental path to reach this goal. And Allies will account for up to 1.5% of GDP annually to inter alia protect our critical infrastructure, defend our networks, ensure our civil preparedness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen our defence industrial base. The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and updated Capability Targets. Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defence and its defence industry when calculating Allies’ defence spending.
4. We reaffirm our shared commitment to rapidly expand transatlantic defence industrial cooperation and to harness emerging technology and the spirit of innovation to advance our collective security. We will work to eliminate defence trade barriers among Allies and will leverage our partnerships to promote defence industrial cooperation.
5. We express our appreciation for the generous hospitality extended to us by the Kingdom of the Netherlands. We look forward to our next meeting in Türkiye in 2026 followed by a meeting in Albania.
'Let's not be naive' — Rutte urges NATO to face Russia, China threats, pledges support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said NATO's role is to ensure Ukraine has the military means to stay in the fight until "serious" peace negotiations begin.
Trump said he was leaving the Nato summit with “a little bit different” view of the alliance as he praised the new 5% spending target and promised “we are here to help them protect their country”.
Zelensky signaled he’s trying to mend relations with Trump after their disastrous White House meeting in February. Instead of his usual casual clothes, he donned a dark, suit-style jacket for the meeting. He also said Ukraine didn’t expect the U.S. to donate the desperately needed Patriots. “Ukraine is ready to buy this equipment and support American weapons manufacturers," Zelensky wrote on X. "We also discussed the potential for co-production of drones. We can strengthen each other."
Statements from other national leaders:
Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez defended his view that Spain could meet the new capability obligations without reaching the new spending target as he declared his plans to run for re-election at the next general election in 2027, despite a raging political crisis at home.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer insisted Donald Trump remained a reliable partner, and said there was “a real resolve” among leaders to continue their support for Ukraine.
French president Emmanuel Macron said the summit’s conclusions showed Europe was ready to take greater responsibility for its defence.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz said Trump “stated very clearly” that he remained committed to Nato’s Article 5, and insisted there was “no reason to be worried about Nato’s future.”
Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni said the new Nato targets were affordable for Italy as they give countries “total flexibility” over how to reach them.
In other news…
Iran's nuclear program has suffered significant damage as a result of Israeli and American air strikes and will require many years of restoration, said US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe.
The head of the United States' key foreign intelligence and counterintelligence agency said he had received "credible intelligence" from a "historically reliable and credible" source that "several key Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed and will take many years to rebuild," Ratcliffe said in a statement posted on the CIA's website.
The statement comes amid disagreements between the Donald Trump administration and CNN and The New York Times, which previously published information from a secret US intelligence report that US strikes on Iranian enrichment facilities did not destroy key components of Iran's nuclear program, but only set it back several months.
Trump says Putin called him to offer help with Iran. "He (Vladimir Putin) said, can I help you with Iran? I said, 'no, I don't need help with Iran. I need help with you,'" U.S. President Donald Trump said.
Barnea says Mossad will operate inside Iran, and they had “hundreds” of operatives helping with Rising Lion. He also thanked CIA for its cooperation, hinting at the much-suspected US assistance even before the American air strikes.
Ceasefire between Iran and Israel now in effect, Trump says. "The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!" U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on June 24.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi urges Iran to clarify the status of every gram of enriched uranium: “I don’t know where it’s stored — my job is to know.” He calls for the immediate resumption of IAEA activities in the country.
Iran’s FM Araghchi on uranium enrichment: “We made great efforts to achieve this technology, and our scientists paid a heavy price. Our people endured sanctions, and war was imposed on us over this. Naturally, no one in Iran will give up this technology.”
Thank You! xxx
Ratcliffe also says a lableak is most plausible.