June 27: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
There are various stories and analysis I have not included in today’s edition of E-Stories due to time constraints.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Update: At least 23 killed, more than 300 injured in Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine over past day. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces launched 71 Shahed-type attack drones and decoys from multiple directions, including Bryansk, Millerovo, Kursk, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine's air defenses destroyed 52 of them.
Iryna Matviyishyn: “Kyiv is under attack. I’ve never see the metro station full of civilians hiding from drones. Russia’s latest massive strikes have shown that drones can cause terror no less than missiles.
And now the ballistics are coming… Russia can never get enough of terrorizing Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s air defenses neutralized 24 Russian UAVs overnight on June 26, during an attack involving 41 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Russia) and Hvardiiske (occupied Crimea).
Zarina Zabrisky: Kherson. Russian FPV drones destroy the city by dropping incendiary devices. A dozen of houses burnt today; some are still on fire. “God, please, no drones…”
Russian court convicts 184 Ukrainian POWs captured in Kursk Oblast of terrorism, Mediazona reports. A Russian military court has convicted 184 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) captured in Kursk Oblast of acts of terrorism, Mediazona reported on June 25.
Donetsk Oblast city ‘on brink of humanitarian catastrophe,’ governor says as drones cripple infrastructure. "The Russians are trying to fully control all movement in the city using their drones," a military spokesperson told the Kyiv Independent.
What matters most right now? Just maybe: the biggest war in Europe since WWII. The pundit class and media have totally missed the forest for the trees. "Historic" and "transformative" -- no, not really. This was a master class in damage control and shifting the narrative.
The bar gets set so incredibly low that averting disaster is immediately cast as victory. So what if Trump stayed for the whole thing? This narrative benefits the current administration but it doesn't help Ukraine or NATO.
Okay sure, the defense spending pledge is good, but so what? Countries only spend $ on defense because of the war. By the way, 1/3 of Allies still don't spend 2% of GDP as agreed over a decade ago. Why? Because they live farther from Russia and don't feel the need.
Aside from a handful, most Allies won't get to 3.5% for another decade. If they get there sooner, that's great. But what's the strategy for ending the war and bolstering European security? Ukraine needs air defense, missiles, munitions. Focus on actions, not words.
Combat Situation
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that the Russian advance in the border areas of Sumy region has been halted:
“The line of combat contact has been stabilized. Our units are conducting active defense and liberating Ukrainian land.”
“Our offensive in the Hlukhiv district forced the enemy to redeploy troops to defend its own territory. This reduced their offensive potential in the Sumy direction,” – Syrskyi said.
“A responsible person has been appointed to organize engineering defenses and coordinate with local communities. Fortifications are not about ticking boxes — they are about achieving real results in modern warfare.”
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.
ISW: South Korean intelligence suggests that North Korea may deploy North Korean troops to Ukrainian territory, which would represent a significant battlefield inflection.
Satellite imagery of select armored vehicle repair plants in Russia indicates that Russia continues to rely on refurbishing its Soviet-era stores of armored vehicles.
Ukraine carried out a saturation strike on the Crimea bridge. UAVs were previouslyly coming from the NW and West, now they are being recorded coming from the north over the Azov Sea.
Overnight June 26, drones paid a visit to Moscow Oblast once again. As usual, local authorities claimed all targets were intercepted. Reports also indicate that Vnukovo Airport temporarily suspended arrivals due to the UAV attack. Damage assessment is still ongoing.
Behind the Lines
A senior NATO official stated at a Hague summit briefing that Russian army losses in Ukraine have exceeded one million, including 250,000 killed, and Russia’s economy can sustain the war until at least 2027, according to DW. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking alongside Zelensky, reaffirmed support for Kyiv, noting allies pledged 35 billion euros in security aid this year. Rutte vowed to ensure Ukraine’s strength to deter future Russian aggression. Zelensky emphasized NATO and European unity as crucial for Ukraine’s defense.
Russians set fire to a parking area with Bundeswehr military trucks at a base in Erfurt, Germany. Footage was released by a Russian Telegram channel.
EUvsDisinfo: Medinsky, Putin’s loyar boyar, rewrites Russian history books. Dirty wars become 'heroic' tales, imperialism turns 'protection', dissent gets crushed. Russian children are taught to embrace aggression as patriotism, and truth as treason.
Several Dutch provincial and municipal government websites were temporarily inaccessible this week following a series of coordinated DDoS attacks claimed by Russian hackers. The cyberattacks, which began early Monday morning, targeted the public-facing websites of local administrations across the Netherlands, making them difficult or impossible to access for several hours.
A DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack overwhelms a website’s server with massive volumes of traffic, rendering it unresponsive to regular users. In this case, the hackers aimed their efforts at official portals used by Dutch citizens to access municipal information, forms, and services.
The hackers, who identified themselves as being part of a pro-Russian operation, took credit for the disruptions through a Telegram channel associated with earlier cyberattacks against European states that support Ukraine. While the specific group was not officially confirmed, previous incidents involving groups like Killnet and NoName057(16) suggest a pattern of politically motivated digital disruption aimed at NATO member states.
Local governments affected by the attack included websites for cities such as The Hague and provincial governments including South Holland and Gelderland. Officials confirmed that while online services were hindered, there was no evidence that internal systems were compromised or that sensitive data was accessed or leaked.
Donald Trump has told President Erdoğan he is ready to visit Turkey for potential talks with Putin, according to CNN Türk.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Bloomberg Television said Washington and Beijing had reached a final agreement on tariffs.
The final agreement regulating tariffs between the two countries was signed two days ago, according to the US Commerce Secretary. Its content reflects the compromise reached during two rounds of negotiations - first in Geneva and later in London.
"This agreement was signed and certified two days ago," Lutnik said.
The agreement includes not only tariff reductions, but also mutual obligations: China will resume supplies of rare earth elements to the United States, in return, Washington will gradually lift a number of restrictions on exports to China of strategically important materials, including ethane (used to produce plastics in China), software for microcircuits, and jet engines.
However, these restrictions will not be lifted until magnets start arriving from China, Lutnik said.
Ukrainian ‘traitor’ behind Russian missile guidance system charged with treason, SBU says. Oleg Borsuk, a 61-year-old Ukrainian national, allegedly oversaw the development and modernization of satellite guidance systems (GPS/GLONASS) used in Russian missiles.
'Something unknown' hits key Russian drone facility in Taganrog, Ukrainian official says. "Something unknown flew into the Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog," Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation center, said. "This is an important node in the Russian military-industrial complex, specializing in components for combat drones and control systems."
Ukrainian military intelligence drones hit missile fuel and logistics storage facilities in Bryansk, according to RBC-Ukraine. The explosions and ensuing fire at the military site were reportedly caused by Ukrainian drones of the "Bobr," "Baklan," and "Obriy" types.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Chinese exports of food to Russia: Wheat exports to China have fallen by 13 times Potato imports from China have increased by 13 times.
North Korea may deploy additional troops to Russia in July or August to support its war against Ukraine. This assessment comes amid indications that Russia may be preparing for a major offensive during that timeframe.
Attitudes toward Russia as a state in 25 countries around the world, according to a survey by the American Pew Research Center — infographics compiled by Deutsche Welle.
North Korea is opening a beach resort that its leader Kim Jong Un hopes will boost tourism in the secretive communist regime, state media reports.
Wonsan Kalma on the east coast will open to domestic tourists on 1 July, six years after it was due to be completed. It is unclear when it will welcome foreigners.
Kim grew up in luxury in Wonsan, where many of the country's elite have private villas, and has been trying to transform the town, which once hosted a missile testing site.
State media KCNA claims the resort can accomodate up to 20,000 visitors, occupying a 4km (2.5 mile) stretch of beach, with hotels, restaurants, shopping malls and a water park - none of which can be verified.
VSquare: Robert Fico’s legal fixer, David Lindtner, had never dabbled in Russian affairs—until he popped up in Moscow this spring, looking very much like a man on someone else’s itinerary. As our investigation with ICJK reveals, his trip was arranged by Leonid Slutsky, the “James Bond-like” Russian politician who runs the so-called Russian Peace Foundation—a group that reports its guest lists and their personal data straight to the GRU’s European espionage department.
Slutsky was even “romantically involved” with a GRU spy, and one of his Duma colleagues in the LDPR faction is none other than Andrey Lugovoy—aka the guy wanted for serving the cup of radioactive tea that killed Alexander Litvinenko in London. Slutsky has long played the role of Kremlin gatekeeper, famously arranging French far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s 2017 visit and receiving awards from Vladimir Putin for his efforts.
As for David Lindtner—his Slovak allies claim he went to Moscow to discuss the rule of law, while Slutsky’s letter said the purpose was to talk about humanitarian projects. When we asked questions, both men went silent. And I strongly suspect neither explanation is entirely convincing. Here’s the longer English version on VSquare
“If we invited Ukraine into the EU, we would also be inviting war.” Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán has once again strongly opposed Ukraine’s EU accession, arguing that it would risk pulling the European Union into war.
Hungary has announced that 95% of respondents oppose Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, according to the results of the Voks2025 national consultation, a total which was a sham. The government claims that 2.28 million citizens participated in the vote. The result is non-binding.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has vetoed the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia during the summit in Brussels, Index reports.
Almost every Georgian opposition leader is now in jail:
Mamuka Khazaradze – arrested, sentenced
Badri Japaridze – arrested, sentenced
Zurab Japaridze – arrested, sentenced
Nika Melia – arrested, sentencing pending
Nika Gvaramia – arrested, sentencing pending
Giorgi Vashadze – arrested, sentenced
Giorgi Gakharia – believed to have fled to Germany
Helen Khoshtaria – recently arrested and mistreated in custody; mother of 4 (3 minors); today, prosecutors demanded pretrial detention, but the judge imposed a fine instead
Tina Bokuchava – still free; her husband was recently kidnapped and threatened for 9 hours; she’s also a mother of three minors.
The American response to the recent Georgian government’s repression against opposition parties:
In Europe…
Romanian President Nicusor Dan has announced that on July 4, the European Union will open the first negotiation cluster on Moldova’s EU accession. The statement was also confirmed by the European Commission.
June 25: A US commercial mission carrying crew from Poland and Hungary blasted off to the International Space Station, taking astronauts from these countries to space for the first time in decades.
Russia is pushing migrants to the UK to overwhelm border defences and sow division in tactics that include providing fake documents, transport and even military escorts to smuggling gangs. I’ve spent months warning about moves like this from Moscow.
EU leaders have agreed to extend all existing sanctions against Russia for another six months but failed to approve the proposed 18th sanctions package, according to Radio Liberty’s Rikard Jozwiak. Slovakia withheld its support, citing concerns over post-2027 gas supplies.
At the NATO summit in The Hague, Italy urged greater focus on threats from North Africa, where Russia has relocated military personnel and equipment from Syria to Libya, raising fears of deploying medium-range missiles capable of reaching southern Europe, according to Handelsblatt.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has warned NATO about Russia’s growing presence in Africa, emphasizing the vulnerability of NATO’s southern flank. Experts like Arturo Varvelli and Claudio Bertolotti highlight Libya’s strategic role in Russia’s African ambitions, posing risks to NATO’s Mediterranean interests and energy supplies.
Margarita Simonyan thanks ‘the team’ in Italy for a job accomplished. A series of posters appeared in Bologna and other Italian cities over the past few days publicising a propaganda film produced by RT, and criticising Italian authorities of censorship and breaches in freedom of expression (“They prohibit the truth.”) The posters were pulled by the local Italian authorities.
Besides publicising the actual RT propaganda film, this keeps Russian narratives alive in Italy, coupled with the anti-establishment rallies that kicked off just before the NATO Summit at The Hague and during the events in the Netherlands.
Therefore, from anti-NATO billboards in Rome to the mapping of Italian structures deemed of military significance in Bologna, Russian propagandists work tirelessly to weaken Italy.
In other news…
Reports indicate a possible drone strike tonight targeting an apartment in a high-rise in Tehran’s Farmanieh District. Rumors suggest senior IRGC officials or nuclear scientists may have been the intended targets. No group has claimed responsibility.
Intelligence about the US missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities: so many people have expressed doubt over the efficacy of the US missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and Michael Weiss expresses a take that gets to the crux of the problem:
“Caine's presentation was detailed, precise and useful. But here's the thing: he represents a command-in-chief who has spent years persuading the American people not to trust anything out of an intelligence community depicted as compromised, deceitful and ideologically motivated. Now Trump is desperate for the intelligence community to back up his claims about Iran to the point of getting it to do PR work on his behalf. So DCIA/DNI statements and a military boffin's walk-through of how Massive Ordnance Penetrators were designed to work specifically for Fordow aren't going to convince everyone that, actually, the "deep state" is good now. De te fabula narratur...”
Criticism coming from Brazilian President Lula da Silva: “Be a president, not an influencer.” (This is rich.)
Without naming Trump directly, Lula urged the leader of “a major country like the U.S.” to spend less time online and act more like a head of state—focusing on dialogue, free trade, multilateralism, and peace, rather than shouting on social media.”
Please notice what’s third on that list—’multilateralism’ or ‘multivector foreign policy’—which is a term used by many states floating in the Russian-Chinese sphere of influence or neutral.
BBC News: As a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding, Ayatollah Khamenei has released his first video message to the nation for more than a week. Iran's supreme leader went into hiding for fear of being assassinated by Israel and even top government officials apparently have had no contact with him. Ahead of the video broadcast, he claimed victory in the conflict with Israel. As Kasra Naji notes, the war left a trail of death and destruction in the country and Khamenei a diminished man - one who, at the age of 86 and ailing, might want to ensure continuity of the regime with an orderly transition of power.
A federal food subsidy program used by 42 million Americans is among the items facing cuts under US President Donald Trump's "big beautiful bill", which he urged Congress to pass by 4 July. Ana Faguy reports from West Virginia, where an estimated 16% of the population depends on the benefit - and many already struggle to cover their grocery bill.