June 3: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
At the EU Defence Ministers’ talks on Monday in Vilnius, president Zelensky said:
"The key to lasting peace is clear: Putin must get nothing that justifies his aggression. Any reward shows him that war pays off. If Putin decides who joins NATO or where NATO’s infrastructure can be, his appetite for war will only grow.”
Stories we’re following…
AFP Up-date: Moscow will only agree to a full ceasefire if Ukrainian troops pull back from the four regions Russia partially controls, according to a copy of a negotiating document published by state news agencies and handed to Kyiv during the 2nd round of talks in Istanbul.
Russia shatters drone record, launches 472 UAVs at Ukraine night before Kyiv's strike on Russian airfields. The mass aerial attack breaks Russia's previous record, set just last week on May 26, by over 100 drones.
Russia attacks Kharkiv with ballistic missiles, drones, injuring at least 6, including child. A 7-year-old boy was among the victims injured in overnight attacks on the city of Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported. Information about casualties and damage is still being investigated.
Ukrainian Air Force: 52 air targets neutralized overnight on June 2. In total, Russia launched 84 aerial threats including 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and one Iskander-K cruise missile.
Russian Arms blogger: Over the past two weeks, the Russian Armed Forces have redeployed about 40 Tu-22M3 long-range bombers to the Olenya airfield as well as about 20% of all Tu-95MS aircraft in the country.
This is the largest redeployment of strategic aviation since the beginning of the conflict. This redeployment may indicate that the Russian Aerospace Forces are preparing for a large-scale operation designed to deal a crushing blow to Ukraine's key facilities - energy, transport, logistics, command centers, if Bankova rejects the proposed memorandum, which should become the basis for a future peace agreement with Ukraine.
In the event of another breakdown in peace talks, Moscow no longer intends to prolong military action for years. According to an insider, the Kremlin has decided to end the active phase as harshly and quickly as possible, using all available means - except nuclear ones.
The Olenya airfield, as one of the most protected and remote, was chosen for the concentration of strategic aviation forces and ammunition.
Vladimir Putin, according to sources, expects to demonstrate to the West what a war will look like if Russia ‘stops holding back.’ This is also a signal to European ‘hawks,’ especially against the backdrop of discussions on the supply of new weapons to Ukraine.
President Zelensky addresses delegates at Vilnius: NATO chief Rutte, and other EU defence authorities met in Vilnius on Monday. “Our team is preparing for the meeting. I’m not sure Russia will be ready for constructive discussions, but we must always hope for solutions,” he said after arriving in Vilnius.
Combat Situation
RFE/RL: “The lynchpin of this attack was covert infiltration and operations very close to the airbases, which likely were rather lightly defended because there were few concerns about Ukraine being able to strike this deep [inside Russia],” Stacie Pettyjohn from the Center for a New American Security told RFE/RL.
ISW Analysis on Opertion Spider Web:
Ukraine continues to innovate its drone technology and tactics to achieve operational surprise and successfully target Russian military infrastructure in the rear.
Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine. Russia will likely struggle to replace the aircraft that Ukrainian forces damaged and destroyed.
Russian officials and milbloggers continue to blame Russian leadership for failing to defend Russian military infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes — a widespread complaint throughout the war after successful Ukrainian strikes.
Russian state media and milbloggers attempted to frame Ukraine's strikes against legitimate Russian military targets as undermining Russia's nuclear stability and as grounds for a Russian nuclear response – mirroring the Kremlin's repeated nuclear saber-rattling throughout the war that has aimed to prevent Western support for Ukraine.
Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the collapse of two bridges and subsequent train derailments in western Russia on May 31, likely as part of efforts to justify the recent launch of Russian offensive operations in Sumy Oblast and the Kremlin's disinterest in peace negotiations to end the war.
Ukrainian attacks on air bases in Crimea: An air raid alert has been activated at military facilities in occupied Sevastopol. Russian monitoring channels report anticipation of incoming Ukrainian UAVs.
SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk: "The enemy thought they could bomb Ukraine and kill Ukrainians with impunity and endlessly. But that's not the case. We will respond to Russian terror and destroy the enemy everywhere – at sea, in the air, and on land. And if needed, we'll reach them even underground," he added.
AFP Analysis based on ISW data for the battleground in Ukraine:
The Russian army took 507 square kilometres in May 2025, against 379 square kilometres in April and 240 square kilometres in March.
In May 2025, the Russian advance was focused again on the eastern Donetsk region, which accounted for nearly 400 square kilometres. Ukrainian troops did not recapture any territory in May.
Over the past 12 months Russian troops have advanced in Ukraine, which has not managed to retake lost territory.
From June 2024 to May 2025 Russia gained a total of 5,107 square kilometres (less than one percent of Ukrainian territory before the war), while Ukrainian forces only regained 85 square kilometres.
At the end of May, Russia controlled either wholly or partially nearly 19% of Ukrainian territory before the war, including Crimea and Donbas.
The UAF unleashed a massive drone strike against the regions of Kursk, Ryazan, Voronezh, and other areas in the Moscow area on Sunday night. Drone attacks also continued on Borisoglebsk air base according to Russian telegram channels.
Russian military freight train blown up en route to Crimea, Ukraine's HUR claims. "The Muscovites' key logistical artery on the occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Crimea has been destroyed," HUR's statement said.
FIRMS picked up a fire at a Russian military airfield in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai. The base hosts the 627th Training Aviation Regiment. It is claimed that the fire occured near newly built hangars.
Moscow region, factory making rockets…not any more.
Russian soldiers surrendered because 'abuse in units is worse than captivity,' Ukrainian paratroopers say. Russia's abuse of its own soldiers has been well documented throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
12 Ukrainian soldiers dead, 60 injured after Russian missile strike on training center. A statement on the attack did not identify the location of the training grounds, nor the specific type of missile used by Russia.
In St. Petersburg, a fire broke out at the local paint factory "Pigment." Residents reported hearing explosions prior to the blaze. Authorities have not yet commented on the cause.
Ukrainian Land Forces Commander resigns after Russian attack that killed 12 soldiers on training grounds. Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi submitted his resignation on June 1.
Behind the Lines
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, reports that at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed and additional aircraft damaged during Ukraine’s large-scale operation "Spiderweb" on June 1.
Czech FM Jan Lipavský welcomed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian airfields, saying it's in Europe’s security interest to have a strong, well-armed Ukraine. He added he now expects Russian strategic aircraft to violate NATO airspace “30% less.”
Danish PM Frederiksen: Ukraine's strikes on Russian airbases show it's successfully defending itself. “Ukraine has the right to defend itself, and that sometimes includes counterattacks — which seem to have been effective.”
Samuel Ramani: Russian Telegram channels are presenting a wide range of narratives about Ukraine's drone attack.
The key narrative is that Ukraine did this before Istanbul to sabotage the peace talks. Basically, it is aimed at provoking Putin into a harsh response and Ukraine rallying the US to firmly support the anti-Russian agenda.
This argument is being paired with uncharacteristic calls for restraint even from hardline ultranationalists. Sergey Markov for instance is warning against tactical nuclear weapons use, as destroying Russian populations in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa would benefit Zelensky.
There are also investigations into the internal failures that precipitated this attack. Chelyabinsk is getting attention, where people assembling drones for the Russian military there unwittingly helping Ukraine's attack?
There are also efforts to downplay the losses, Oleg Tsaryov is leading the charge.
But there are candid discussions about financial costs, how a $600 FPV drone could destroy a $100 million nuclear capable jet was noted by Tsaryov. Moreover, there are warnings about Russia's inability to replenish lost jets within its nuclear triad through new production. For now, there are no intense personal attacks on Russian commanders that preceded Prigozhin's death but the critical spirit is alive and well.
The Russian Defence Ministry is typically trying to spin something positive out of this. Repelled attacks on Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur, no casualties from fires are in their statement.
Nonetheless, the phrase "terrorism" lingers.
There isn't a clear consensus on what Russia's escalation options should be which reflects the mood of shock.
Official Readout: Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke today with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, at Russia’s request. Secretary Rubio reiterated President Trump’s call for continued direct talks between Russia and Ukraine to achieve a lasting peace.
Russia will not disclose the contents of its proposed memorandum on Ukraine, TASS reports. The document will be handed over and discussed on June 2. This deliberate lack of transparency is purely aimed at keeping Russia’s ridiculous demands out of the public eye.
‘Peace talks’ in Istanbul on Monday: Ukraine handed Russia a list of Ukrainian children to be returned, said Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. The list includes hundreds of children illegally deported, forcibly transferred, or held in temporarily occupied territories.
Ruth Michaelson: Russian officials held a competing press conference in the grounds of the Çırağan palace while the Ukrainian delegation was still talking, in a fitting conclusion to a day of talks that frequently saw Ukrainian and Russian diplomats attempting to marshal crowds of journalists as the brief negotiations wrapped up, with Ukrainian diplomats reluctant to admit Russian media to their briefing.
Medinsky said that Moscow will hand over 6000 bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers next week, part of an exchange that will also see Kyiv deliver the same number of bodies of fallen Russian soldiers.
Russia’s lead negotiator Vladimir Madinsky denied abducting tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, calling it propaganda.
“Stop throwing around crazy numbers. We will return everyone. There is no kidnapping. Russian soldiers saved them. Don’t perform for European aunties who don’t have children.”
Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul met with representatives from Germany, Italy, and the UK, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Heorhii Tykhyi confirmed. First Deputy FM Serhiy Kyslytsya and delegate Oleksandr Bevz attended. Positions were aligned ahead of today’s talks with Russia.
A third round of Ukraine-Russia talks will take place “at some point,” though no exact date has been set, Russian media report. Monday's negotiations have concluded, and both delegations are leaving Turkey. The Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that the talks did not end negatively. The delegations have agreed on a prisoner exchange.
Russia didn’t want the US at the Istanbul talks. “Back in May, they insisted Americans weren’t allowed in the room. We don’t get why it matters so much to them. We think the US should be there. What are they hiding? That’s the real question,” said Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s Heorhii Tykhy.
Latvian authorities have banned entry to certain Russian citizens who own property near strategically important sites, Delfi reports.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Bleeping Computer: Russia has introduced a new law that makes installing a tracking app mandatory for all foreign nationals in the Moscow region. The new proposal was announced by the chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, who presented it as a measure to tackle migrant crimes.
"The adopted mechanism will allow, using modern technologies, to strengthen control in the field of migration and will also contribute to reducing the number of violations and crimes in this area," stated Volodin.
Russia has developed a new paranoia: trucks. Long queues are forming as authorities now inspect cargo vehicles thoroughly. According to Russian sources, drivers of trucks allegedly used to launch Ukrainian drones toward military airfields have been interrogated. One claimed his truck carried prefab houses from Chelyabinsk to Murmansk. En route, unknown callers instructed him where and when to stop—at one such stop, drones reportedly launched.
Australia's defence minister Richard Marles has called on China to explain why it needs to have "such an extraordinary military build-up". He said Beijing needs to provide greater transparency and reassurance as it is the "fundamental issue" for the region.
Meanwhile, the Philippines defence minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr has called China "absolutely irresponsible and reckless" in its actions in the South China Sea. The ministers had separately addressed reporters on the sidelines of an Asian defence summit held in Singapore.
On Sunday morning, Marles asserted that "what we have seen from China is the single biggest increase in military capability and build up in conventional sense, by any country since the end of the Second World War".
It is not just the size of the military build-up that concerns other countries, he told reporters.
"It's the fact that it is happening without strategic reassurance. It's happening without a clear strategic intent on the part of China… what we want to see is strategic transparency and strategic reassurance be provided by China, and an understanding of why it is needed to have such an extraordinary military build-up."
In Europe…
Nationalist candidate Nawrocki wins Polish presidential election by narrow margin. Right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki garnered 50.89% of the vote in the run-off election on June 1, narrowly defeating his liberal rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.
Nawrocki’s victory is a major blow for the coalition government led by Donald Tusk and is expected to prolong the current political deadlock in the country as well as complicate the country’s position in Europe.
The defeated candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, has now conceded the election after a bruising night which started off with him declaring a victory on the basis of an exit poll, but ended with him bitterly disappointed. In a social media post, he thanked his supporters for voting for “strong, safe, honest and empathetic” Poland.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has said she expects “very good cooperation” to continue between the EU and Poland under the presidency of newly elected Karol Nawrocki. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, she said:
I’m confident that the EU will continue its very good cooperation with Poland. We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home.
EU commission president von der Leyen met with US Republican senator Lindsey Graham to discuss EU-US coordination on sanctions on Russia, the European commission has said in a press release.
The president made the objective clear: we need a real ceasefire, we need Russia at the negotiating table, and we need to end this war. Pressure works, as the Kremlin understands nothing else.
This is why the President welcomed that Senator Graham committed to ramping up pressure on Russia and moving ahead with the bill in Senate next week.
The EU is preparing its 18th package of hard-biting sanctions, targeting Russia’s energy revenues, including Nord Stream infrastructure, Russia’s banking sector and lowering the crude oil price cap.
These steps, taken together with US measures, would sharply increase the joint impact of our sanctions, said President von der Leyen.
Kaitsepolitseiamet: Ukrainian citizen Stanislav Matlak is expelled due to hiding contacts with the FSB. To escape the trap of Russian special services, contact KAPO! Kapo@kapo.ee
Reuters: Chinese spying on Dutch industries 'intensifying': Dutch defence minister. Chinese efforts to spy on the Dutch are intensifying, with the focus on semiconductors, Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said on Saturday.
"The semiconductor industry, which we are technologically leading, or technology advanced, of course, to get that intellectual property - that's interesting to China," Brekelmans said in an interview on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore.
More on the Defense Ministers meeting at Vilnius: Zelensky met Finnish PM Petteri Orpo in Vilnius. “Our focus is on investing in Ukrainian weapons production and co-manufacturing. I shared details of our ‘Drone Line’ project, which has proven effective. We discussed how to scale it up,” the president said.
Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausea said Lithuania will be spending 4% of GDP of defence this year and more than 5% from the next year to 2030. He says he believes allies will be ready to “substantially increase” defence spending amid concerns about Russian aggression spreading beyond Ukraine.
Nordic, Baltic and central European Nato members are committed to Ukrainian membership of the military alliance, the leaders of Poland, Romania and Lithuania said in a joint statement after a summit of the B9 and Nordic countries on Monday, Reuters reports.
Annalena Baerbock to become President of the UN General Assembly on June 2, 2025, with ambitions to reform the organization. She aims to reduce redundancies, increase transparency, and strengthen the Assembly's role in selecting the UN Secretary-General. Russia, Belarus, and Serbia oppose her election, citing alleged bias.
Kaja Kallas: “Today, we take the relationship with the Philippines to another level. Our new Security and Defence Dialogue will deepen our cooperation in areas, such as maritime security, cyber security, foreign information manipulation and crisis response.
In other news…
CNN: Multiple people set on fire in attack at Colorado march for Israeli hostages, police say. A man reportedly set people on fire in Boulder, Colorado, leaving multiple individuals injured, the city’s police chief said, as people gathered to show support for Israeli hostages.
A suspect is in custody and police are investigating what FBI officials immediately called “a targeted terror attack” — though the local authorities said it was too early to define the attack.
NYT: F.B.I. Charges Colorado Attack Suspect With Hate Crime. The man threw Molotov cocktails at a rally in Boulder, Colo., that was supporting Israeli hostages in Gaza, according to court documents. Eight people were hospitalized.
Seems the only on clueless was PM and his tight knit.
Ukrainian OPSEC is the standard! It makes us and signal gate look like amateurs. Slava Ukraine, Long Live President Zelensky.