June 30: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 10, injure at least 50 over past day. Ukrainian forces downed 21 out of the 23 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones and decoys, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported.
During the early hours of Sunday morning, Russia commited the largest ever missile and drone attack of the war all across Ukraine, launched from ships, land, submarines, bomber aircraft. Russia had fired a staggering 537 aerial weapons in a single overnight barrage, including 477 explosive drones and decoys and 60 missiles of various types.
Over 450 Shahed drones, Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles, Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, 9M723 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles.
Shot down:
436/477 Shahed & other type drones (+decoys)
0/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
1/7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
33/41 Iskander-K/Kh-101 cruise missiles
4/5 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/3 S-300 ballistic missiles
Ben Hodges: “If Russia makes the terrible decision to attack a NATO country, they will have already made the decision to launch these sorts of aerial attacks against our cities and transportation infrastructure. Either help Ukraine defeat Russia or start spending billions on air defense.”
The massive Russian strike overnight hit multiple regions across Ukraine: injuries in Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk, civilian infrastructure damaged in Sumy, Dnipro, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Lviv. Targets included homes, colleges, churches, and critical infrastructure.
McDonald's to open 10 new restaurants in Ukraine this year, NYT reports. The 10 new locations will bring the total number close to 120 — more than were operating in Ukraine before the war.
Ukraine's parliament working on bill to organize post-war elections, speaker says. The reason for separate legislation on a post-war election, Stefanchuk said, was due to the fact that Ukraine's Constitution does not not provide clarity on the details of holding elections following the end of a martial law period.
President Zelensky honored the fallen pilot Maksym Ustymenko, saying: "Maksym had been fighting since the early days of the war in Donbas. He mastered four types of aircraft and delivered truly important results for Ukraine. It’s painful to lose people like him."
Iryna Matviyishyn: “Last night, this F-16 pilot, Maksym Ustymenko, probably saved many lives by downing Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukrainian cities. After his plane was damaged, he managed to divert it away from a residential area but didn’t have time to eject. Eternal glory to the hero.”
Combat Situation
Ukrainian forces have breached the Russian border in Kursk Oblast again, advancing into the village of Mykolaivka, where they have secured a strategically important bridgehead.
Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea air base destroys 3 Russian helicopters, SBU claims. The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.
Chair of the NATO Military Committee—Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragoni: “European battle theater is now connected to the Indo-pacific. This has huge consequences. It complicates finding a solution.”
Behind the Lines
Pro-Ukraine partisans disrupt Russian military logistics in occupied Donetsk Oblast, group claims. The Atesh partisan group set fire to a signal cabinet that helps control traffic on a railway line near the Russian-occupied city of Yasynuvata in Donetsk Oblast, a route used for Russia's military logistics, the group claimed on Telegram on June 28.
Pope Leo says Ukraine 'martyred' in Russia's 'senseless war.' Pope Leo XIV welcomed Ukrainian Greek Catholic pilgrims to the Vatican on June 28 and offered his blessing to mothers of soldiers killed on the front lines.
"For the first time yesterday the president told me... he says, 'it's time to move your bill'," Graham said in an interview with ABC News, stressing that it would be Trump's purview as to whether the bill would ultimately be signed into law.
U.S. threatens India and China with 500% tariffs over trade with Russia.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has announced that a new sanctions bill will include tariffs of up to 500% on goods from countries that continue cooperating with Russia and do not support Ukraine.
Graham specifically pointed to India and China, saying they are major buyers of Russian oil and, in Washington’s view, are helping fund the Kremlin’s war effort.
The initiative is part of a broader sanctions campaign that Trump and Republicans plan to launch as early as July.
Mo: We’ve heard this time and again, and both the Biden and Trump administration have procrastinated on aid and sanctions against Russia. The same could be said about the EU that still hasn’t taken a definitive stand against Russian energy imports and other products or effective sanctions compliance mechanisms.
Romanian authorities have officially indicted Călin Georgescu, the former presidential candidate, on several charges, including making false statements and illegal campaign financing.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russia reviving efforts to expand LNG exports after US sanctions, Bloomberg reports. An LNG ice-class tanker has reportedly docked at Russia's Arctic LNG 2 facility for the first time since October, according to ship-tracking data and satellite images.
Bloomberg Economics economist for Russia and Central and Eastern Europe Alexander Isakov has moved to Sberbank to the position of head of the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR), two sources told Frank Media. Isakov will work permanently in Moscow, the sources said.
Serbian police crack down on protestors at mass anti-government rally in Belgrade. The 100,000-person rally marks the latest mass action in a protest movement that started last fall, with activists calling for an end to corruption and the 12-year rule of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Tengri News: Azerbaijan cancels all events with Russia after killing of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg
In Azerbaijan, all events related to the Russian Federation have been cancelled in connection with the attack on Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg and the murder of two people by Russian security forces during apartment raids.
In Yekaterinburg on June 27, as a result of raids by Russian security forces on apartments where Azerbaijanis lived, two people were killed , several were seriously injured and hospitalized, and nine were detained. In connection with this incident, where representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora suffered, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry expressed a strong protest and summoned the Chargé d'Affaires of the Russian Embassy in Baku, Pyotr Volokov. The department noted that they expect an investigation into the matter and the prompt prosecution of all those who committed the violence.
Hungarian FM Peter Szijjarto said on June 29 that the US has lifted that hindered the expansion of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, where Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom is to build two new reactors.
"Construction of the major pieces of equipment for the Paks nuclear plant is proceeding in Russia and France," Szijjarto said, as cited by Bloomberg. "On-site in Paks, construction can now proceed at a faster pace."
The expansion project, which has endured significant delays, is led by Rosatom and will add to the four active reactors.
The anti-Russian sanctions were imposed by former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration. The U.S. has not reacted to Szijjarto's comments so far.
Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president's commissioner for sanctions, said the situation with the expansion of the nuclear plant is "much more complicated." He accused the Hungarian foreign minister of "manipulation."
Vlasiuk explained in a Facebook post that Paks faces a sanctions exemption from the EU. The U.S. has not lifted the sanctions, though there is a new licence that offers the possibility of conducting transactions related to civilian nuclear energy that began prior to November 2024.
In Europe…
German Chancellor Merz says he’s not planning to speak with Putin, citing past contacts that only led to more Russian bombings—like attacks on hospitals after calls with Orban and Scholz. “If that’s the outcome, I’ll pass,” Merz said. He also noted that Trump is becoming more critical of Russia.
Germany’s state-owned SEFE, formerly Gazprom’s, bought over €2 billion in Russian LNG from Novatek in 2025, with at least 50 shipments arriving at French, Belgian, and Spanish ports for Europe’s gas network, including Germany, per an SWR investigation. Novatek is linked to Putin’s ally Gennady Timchenko. Environmentalists and politicians criticize this as funding Russia’s military, with DUH’s Julian Schwarzkopf noting SEFE’s purchases boost Russia’s LNG revenue, surpassing Ukraine’s humanitarian aid.
Euobserver: Since Russia's deployment of military equipment from Syria into Libya, there has been a 173% rise in migrant arrivals to Greece. Russia is enabling people-smuggling along Libya’s coast. Moscow wants Europe to face a migration crisis.
Earlier this week, the Greek government announced plans to deploy two frigates and third naval vessel off the coast of Libya to stem a sudden increase of irregular migrant landings on the Greek islands of Crete and Gavdos.
The announcement in Athens followed warnings by Italy's minister of foreign affairs, Antonio Tajani, that Russia was moving a naval base in Syria to Libya.
Tajani warned the Russian move would have a "destabilising effect in whole Mediterranean area" with "an incremental impact on migratory flows". It would also "make it harder to seek unity in Libya", he said.
Similar warnings had also been raised by Malta and Spain, which had also seen Russia moving equipment from Syria's Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base to Libya's Al-Khadim airbase near Benghazi, in eastern Libya.
There is no immediate indication that the Russian move has triggered an exodus from Libya.
But in her letter addressed to EU leaders, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen noted a 173-percent increase of arrivals to Greece from eastern Libya.
"With the political and security situation in Libya being extremely critical, political engagement by the EU and member states is crucial considering the geopolitical consequences of developments in Libya for the EU," she said, in her letter.
Helsigin Sanomat: "The worst traffic disruption in my 45-year career"
The main line traffic disruption on the night between Saturday and Sunday has proven to be historically extensive in its effects. Main line traffic was disrupted for a total of 16 hours.
All that is known about the electric track damage that occurred in Palopuro, Hyvinkää, is that the contact wires of the electric trains fell on an Intercity train. The damage on the two-track section was extensive, as the contact wires that fell from the eastern track also damaged the western tracks.
Train services in both north and south directions were disrupted from 7pm on Saturday evening until noon on Sunday. Hundreds of passengers waited in suspense both at stations and on trains.
"Of course, the cause of the falling contact wires is being investigated, but different parts of the track are so warped that it is difficult to determine the causes of the damage," Lindström reflects.
In other news…
Axios: At 11:06 p.m. ET, Senate Republicans voted 51-49 to move forward with President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" — clearing a key hurdle, Axios' Stef Kight and Stephen Neukam report from the Capitol.
After days of heated debate and complaints, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is barreling forward to get Trump's priorities on taxes, the debt ceiling, border security and military funding passed by July 4.
Trump ramped up pressure on Republicans on Saturday morning. "[F]ailure to pass this bill would be the ultimate betrayal," the White House told lawmakers in a statement of administration policy.
Journal of Democracy: The Islamic Republic’s War on Iranians
The conflict between Iran and Israel may have quieted for now, but another violent campaign continues unabated: the Islamic Republic’s relentless repression of its own people. For decades, the clerical regime has denied citizens freedom, discriminated against women and religious minorities, and silenced critics. But Iranians have had enough. In a special early release from the July issue of the Journal of Democracy, Ladan Boroumand details how the Woman, Life, Freedom movement has fractured the regime’s legitimacy and strengthened Iranians’ determination to regain their rights.
David Albright: Maxar imagery taken yesterday (June 28) shows that the Iranians are actively working at the two MOP impact sites penetrating the ventilation shafts of the Fordow Enrichment Plant with heavy earth moving equipment including one excavator at each location.
The purpose of this activity may include backfilling the craters, as well as conducting engineering damage assessments and likely radiological sampling. The craters above the main shafts remain open.
Two of the six MOP impact points appear to have been covered by square slabs. In other areas, we have observed that the Iranians have also rapidly repaired the bomb cratering damage on the main entrance road from only a few days prior.
However, there are yet no indications of any efforts to reopen any of the tunnel entrances. There is a crane near one of the new access roads to the area of the MOP impact points that could be used in recovery. Could this crane be used to get something in or out of the facility via the shafts?
We note that the visual evidence is a long stretch from suggesting repair of the enrichment site.
