June 5: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 42 over past day. Ukrainian forces downed 60 out of the 112 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Fifteen drones were intercepted by electronic warfare or disappeared from radars without causing any damage, according to the statement.
Ukraine has been officially invited to the NATO summit in The Hague, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed. The format of Ukraine’s participation and its role in the final communiqué are still being coordinated.
Ukraine plans to join the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2026, as stated at an OECD ministerial meeting on 3 June 2025. PM Shmyhal said,
"Despite the war, Ukraine continues to implement reforms across all sectors to strengthen the economy and lay the foundation for joining the club of developed nations. We expect to join the OECD next year."
"Over the past two years, we’ve held 23 events with the OECD and adopted eight legal instruments," he added. "We established anti-corruption infrastructure and implemented the State Anti-Corruption Programme, which aligns 80% with OECD standards."
Shmyhal highlighted progress in digitalisation, deregulation and alignment with OECD standards in privatisation and corporatisation.
Human Rights Watch—Ukraine: Russia Using Drones to Attack Civilians
In 2024, Russian drone strikes killed dozens of civilians and injured hundreds more in the city of Kherson, in apparently deliberate or reckless attacks that constitute war crimes.
The attacks have the apparent purpose of instilling terror in the civilian population in Kherson, part of a widespread attack against that population.
These attacks underscore the urgency of identifying effective ways to enforce respect for international humanitarian law, including through prosecutions of serious crimes in Ukraine.
The 93-page report, “Hunted From Above: Russia’s Use of Drones to Attack Civilians in Kherson, Ukraine” and an accompanying web feature, document how Russian forces appear to be deliberately or recklessly carrying out drone strikes against civilians and civilian objects with these mostly inexpensive commercially available drones. The attacks spread terror among the civilian population and cause them to fear leaving their homes, and have caused the depopulation of the two areas being targeted in Kherson.
“Russian drone operators are able to track their targets, with high-resolution video feeds, leaving little doubt that the intent is to kill, maim, and terrify civilians,” said Belkis Wille, associate crisis, conflict and arms director at Human Rights Watch. “They exemplify why the international community needs to support all avenues of accountability for victims of Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine.”
Combat Situation
Michael Weiss: Just watched a video showing Ukrainian FPVs hitting two Russian A-50s. Can't share the video just yet, but this confirms scuttlebutt from SBU that they knackered two irreplaceable Soviet-era early warning and control aircraft. Russia only has six. Well, now four.
Confirmed: Rare Russian A-50 spy planes damaged in Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb, Telegraph reports. Footage reportedly shows Ukrainian drones hitting two A-50s, rare Russian spy planes that Moscow relies on to detect air defense systems and coordinate targets for fighter jets.
UAF Kerch Bridge strike: “Today, at 4:44 a.m., without any civilian casualties, the first explosive device was detonated,” the agency said in a statement, with accompanying video footage of the detonations. “The underwater support pillars were severely damaged at the seabed level — aided by the equivalent of 1,100 kg of TNT. As a result, the bridge is effectively in an emergency condition.”
Local Telegram channels in Crimea reported a second explosion Tuesday afternoon, and the bridge was once again closed to traffic for several hours.
“There is no place for illegal Russian structures on the territory of our state,” Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, head of the Security Service, said in a statement. “The Crimean Bridge is a completely legitimate target, especially considering that the enemy used it as a logistical artery to supply its troops. Crimea is Ukraine, and any form of occupation will be met with a firm response.”
Ukrainian strike on Russian bombers alarmed Kremlin over nuclear carriers vulnerability, Bloomberg reports. A recent Ukrainian drone strike deep inside Russian territory has sparked anger and concern among Kremlin officials over the exposed vulnerability of a nuclear-capable air force far from the front lines, Bloomberg reported on June 2, citing undisclosed sources close to senior Moscow officials.
Ukraine to deploy new units to counter Russian drone attacks, Air Force says. According to Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihant, Russia employed tactics involving the launch of a large number of weapons at a single target from high altitude.
The SBU has released rare footage showing the early stages of Operation “Spiderweb,” a special operation targeting Russia’s strategic aviation. The video captures one of the trucks loaded with modular structures setting off—marking the beginning of the mission.
On the night of June 4, a fire broke out at the Avtodiesel engine plant in Yaroslavl, engulfing the workshop producing 12-cylinder engines, the regional department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations reported . According to the department, the area of the fire was 400 square meters, there were no casualties.
The Yaroslavl Engine Plant (YaMZ) is one of the largest Russian enterprises producing multi-purpose diesel engines, as well as gearboxes. In May 2024, YaMZ was subject to US sanctions. The justification for the restrictions noted that the plant produces diesel engines for the Russian army.
DeepState update on the night of 3-4 June: the Russians had occupied the settlements of Andriivka and Vodolahy in Sumy Oblast."The enemy has occupied Andriivka and Vodolahy." In addition, DeepState added that the Russians had advanced near Yablunivka in Sumy Oblast and near Dyliivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove.
Ukraine’s Air Force shot down 61 Russian Shahed drones overnight (June 3–4), out of 95 launched by Russia from multiple directions incl. Kursk, occupied Crimea & Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
President Zelensky has announced changes in Ukraine’s military leadership: General Dmytro Drapaty has been appointed Commander of the Joint Forces, with training and recruitment delegated to a separate official. Oleh Apostol will lead the Air Assault Forces, Robert Brovdi ("Magyar") takes over as Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, and Vadym Sukharevskyi becomes Deputy Commander of Operational Command "East," focusing on modernization and new approaches.
Ukraine’s Navy has received CB90-class fast assault craft from Sweden and NAVY 18 WP-class patrol boats from Estonia, equipped with foldable anti-drone grills to enhance drone defense. Ukraine currently operates about 26 of the 40 pledged CB90's and two NAVY 18 WP's.
Russia's production of ballistic missiles has increased by at least 66% over the past year, according to data from Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) shared with the Kyiv Independent. According to data obtained by HUR, Moscow is now producing 60 to 70 Iskander-M — the ballistic version of the missile — and 10 to 15 hypersonic Kinzhals per month. This compares to a reported 40 Iskander-Ms in May 2024, and a reported 4–5 Kinzhals in April 2024. At the lower range, this is an increase in production of 66.67%. At the higher range, 88.89%.
The US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth will not take part in the Ramstein meeting, as reported by the Associated Press, citing a US official. For the first time since the US created the international group, the Pentagon chief will not be present at a meeting of over 50 other defence leaders on Wednesday 4 June. "It is the latest in a series of steps that the US has taken to distance itself from the Ukraine war effort.
It comes on the heels of French President Emmanuel Macron's warning at the security conference last weekend that the US and others risk a dangerous double standard if their concentration on a potential conflict with China is done at the cost of abandoning Ukraine."
The NATO is urging European member states to significantly increase their number of ground-based air defence systems in order to prepare for potential Russian aggression as reported by Bloomberg.
As per sources, the Alliance has set an overall target for European members to increase their ground-based air defence capabilities fivefold. Individual targets will be set for each country, though no deadlines have been established yet.
The issue of ground-based air defence systems is expected to be discussed at the meeting of NATO defence ministers in Brussels on Thursday, Bloomberg’s sources added.
A senior European military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Bloomberg that NATO members are in urgent need of expanding their ground-based air defence systems.
Behind the Lines
US secretary of defense Pete Hegseth will go to Brussels on Thursday to participate in the Nato defence ministers meeting and travel to Normandy, France, on Friday for D-day commemorations, the department said in a statement. Hegseth will deliver a message advancing President Donald Trump’s call for Nato allies to commit spending 5% of their GDP on defence, the department said on Tuesday.
The White House says no new sanctions on Russia will happen without Trump’s sign-off. Spox Karoline Leavitt stressed that sanctions remain “a tool” and credited Trump’s “persistence” for bringing Ukraine and Russia to direct talks.
Trump deleted the following tweet, and then published it again without any edits.
Russia may have recruited Ukrainian suspect behind Starmer arson via Telegram app, media reports. Ukrainian citizen Roman Lavrynovych, suspected of setting fire to property linked to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, may have been recruited by Russia via the Telegram messaging app, RFE/RL's Schemes Investigative project reported on June 3.
Confirmed: Ukraine Receives Invitation To NATO Summit in The Hague, Zelensky confirmed on Monday.
Nikkei Asia: Trump’s Cost Benefit Doctrine in Foreign Policy
For 234 years, the British Embassy has arguably enjoyed the greatest access to the White House. But these days, even the British have had trouble contacting counterparts in the NSC. With directors for Europe, Middle East, China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea having all been put on administrative leave, British diplomats have instead been told to send inquiries to a group email.
Exactly why the NSC was gutted in May is not clear. But it is widely believed that the aim is to align staff with the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Driving the noninterventionist policy are a group of officials known as the "restrainers," who advocate for a foreign policy of realism and restraint. Three years before Trump's second inauguration, the restrainers' views were already on full display at a conference held in Washington called "Up From Chaos: Conserving American Security."
Convening a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, in March 2022, the speakers warned not to repeat the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of the restrainers who spoke at this conference would end up taking key positions in the second Trump administration, including JD Vance, David Sacks, Michael Anton, Dan Caldwell, William Ruger, Joe Kent and Dan Bishop.
"The broad goal is to responsibly steward American power, to serve America's national interests more narrowly defined and extend our privileged position as long into the future as possible," said Edward King, founder and president of Defense Priorities, an influential think tank in the restrainer camp.
"The idea that we can prolong the unipolar moment by ignoring the changes in the balance of power globally, ignoring tradeoffs and choices, has distracted and weakened us," he said. "We are a great country. I want us to continue to be a great country, and that requires a realistic strategy."
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Putin has rejected Ukraine's offer of a summit with Zelensky and an immediate ceasefire. This is his first time addressing the major Ukrainian strikes last weekend, and a marked rhetorical escalation. "Who has negotiations with terrorists?" he says.
“Not long ago, Kyiv and its allies dreamed of Russia’s strategic defeat. Now, retreating with heavy losses, they turn to terrorism while asking for a 30- or 60-day ceasefire. How can talks proceed under such conditions? Who negotiates with those betting on terror, only to use a pause to rearm and prepare new attacks?”
Russia’s major news networks faced a considerable challenge covering events from the May 31–June 1 weekend, which included train derailments in two regions and drone strikes on strategic warplanes at multiple airfields. Meduza examines the narratives that dominated the airwaves as broadcasters devised self-serving frames for numerous bombings that claimed at least seven lives and destroyed at least a dozen aircraft.
The head of Roscosmos Dmitry Bakanov presented large-scale plans within the framework of a new national space project, which envisages the launch of more than a thousand satellites. As he stated at the conference "Digital Industry of Industrial Russia", held in Nizhny Novgorod, the key area will be the development of a satellite communications system and Earth observation. "Within the framework of the section "Communications and Earth observation", it is envisaged to form a low-orbit satellite group by launching 886 spacecraft for broadband Internet "Rassvet"," Bakanov said (quoted by "RIA Novosti"). (Mo: I can almost guarantee that this project is backed by the Chinese. That said, it’s a great little propaganda piece which deflects from the Ukrainian attacks which struck the Russian air bases.)
Putin's ambitious project to create a "gas hub" in "friendly" Turkey, which would once again open the doors to the European and global markets for Gazprom, has ended in failure.
After several years of negotiations with Turkey and internal discussions, Gazprom decided to abandon the project, recognizing it as impractical, Bloomberg reports , citing sources close to the company.
Putin came up with the idea of creating a "gas hub" in Turkey in October 2022, shortly after the Nord Stream explosions. Gazprom immediately considered the idea unrealistic, Bloomberg sources say. Firstly, Turkey does not have pipelines of sufficient capacity to pump gas to the EU, and because of this, Putin's "hub" could not become a full-fledged exchange where the price of gas would be set.
The transfer of Russian assets of the French food producer Danone to the control of the entourage of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, took place virtually without financial costs for the new owners, the Sistema project found out after studying the financial statements of the companies involved in the deal.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: I’m currently on leave away from Moscow. But before I left, I asked Russians about their hopes & their concerns.
Car sales drop in Russia: The hopes of manufacturers and dealers for a recovery in the automobile market have not been fulfilled. Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles after April growth in May fell by 27.5% year-on-year to 98.3 thousand, the Ministry of Industry and Trade reported , citing data on new car registrations. Passenger cars were sold in the month by 28% less than in May last year - 90.7 thousand. In April, the drop in passenger car sales was 26% year-on-year, the same as for the five months.
Diamond sales drop in Russia: Sanctions for the war in Ukraine have hit hard the supply of Russian diamonds to the world market: in 2024, Russia exported the lowest volume of precious stones in more than 10 years of available statistics. According to the Kimberley Process, cited by Kommersant, over the year, exports decreased in kind by 6.27% - to 30.37 million carats. The figure turned out to be lower than the level of 2015, when the first sanctions were imposed on Russia for the annexation of Crimea - that year, 30.8 million carats were exported. At the same time, in pre-war 2021, supplies to foreign markets reached 48.6 million carats.
WSJ: Xiongan is President Xi Jinping’s utopian legacy. But after seven years of development, one of the world’s most expensive infrastructure projects remains largely empty. Located 60 miles outside Beijing, Xiongan is designed to ease pressure on the overcrowded and congested Chinese capital of more than 20 million people. So why are the streets of the new metropolis empty and will people move in?
AFP: US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping will likely hold a long-awaited call later this week, the White House says, as trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies ratchet back up.
NYT: "China has suspended almost all exports since April 4 of seven kinds of rare earth metals, as well as very powerful magnets made from three of them. The halt has caused increasingly severe shortages that threaten to close many factories in the United States and Europe."
Chinese President Xi Jinping praised Belarus as a true friend of China as he met Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of the sanctions-hit European nation, on Wednesday and urged the Russian ally to join Beijing in opposing "hegemony and bullying". Lukashenko's visit to Beijing was his first since he was declared a winner of January's presidential election that extended his 31-year rule of the former Soviet republic. Western governments had rejected his victory as a sham.
(Video: China’s PLA participated in military exercises in Belarus 10 months ago. The China-Belarus relationship dates back officially to 10 years ago when they signed a strategic partnership agreement.)
Update on Chinese spies in the Netherlands: China denied on Tuesday that its scientific and technological achievements were due to “stolen” intellectual property, after comments by the Dutch defence minister accusing Beijing of intensifying its espionage, especially on semiconductors.
China firmly opposes attempts to “smear” it using accusations of “spying” and “cyber-attacks” as a pretext, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a written response to Reuters. It urged relevant sides to look at China objectively and fairly.
The Dutch military intelligence agency said last year that Chinese spies had targeted the Dutch semiconductor, aerospace and maritime industries. Such attacks have intensified, Dutch defence minister Ruben Brekelmans said at a forum on Saturday.
Orbán has declared on Facebook that he will do everything possible to prevent Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, citing concerns for Hungarian interests and his conscience. Orbán believes that EU enlargement is a noble idea, except when it comes to Ukraine’s accession, which he claims is "a lucrative deal for the Brussels bureaucracy in a lost war".
"Ukraine will drain every euro, forint and zloty we have spent on strengthening European families, farmers and industry," he asserted.
He claimed that in ten years, he would not be able to face his conscience, grandchildren, or country if he failed to "protect Hungary and the EU from Brussels’ dream of Ukrainian membership".
Georgia’s prosecutor general Giorgi Gabitashvili, sanctioned by the U.K., has been nominated and will be approved as chief auditor, as Tsotne Kavlashvili has left office and been transferred as deputy finance minister under the Georgian Dream government.
Civil.Ge: NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Standing Committee has suspended meetings of the Georgia-NATO Interparliamentary Council and reduced “some of the Georgian delegation’s participation privileges,” citing concerns over democratic backsliding.
In Europe…
The Polish defence ministry has just confirmed media reports about unguarded containers containing ammunition and weapons which was found near an aero club in the town of Laszki in south-eastern Poland, less than 30km from the Ukrainian border.
The European Commission is launching plans for the return of Ukrainians once the war ends. Carefully coordinated to avoid disorder, the plan includes “unity hubs” in EU countries—offering return guidance, job support, language lessons & cultural programs. First hubs will be opened in Germany and Spain, Politico reports.
Britain will deliver 100,000 drones to Ukraine by April 2026—part of a £350M package under a wider £4.5B military support plan. Defence Sec. John Healey to announce the pledge at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels, alongside Germany.
Poland’s newly elected President Karol Nawrocki has expressed hope for continued close partnership with Ukraine, stressing the need to resolve "overdue historical issues" between the two nations. Nawrocki’s statement responded to congratulations from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who anticipated fruitful cooperation with Poland’s new leader.
"I am looking forward to countinue [sic] partnership of our countries, based on mutual respect and understanding. I believe it requires not only good dialogue but also solving overdue historical issues," he said.
Reuters Update: The Dutch government collapsed on Tuesday, most likely ushering in a snap election, after anti-Muslim politician Geert Wilders quit the right-wing coalition, accusing other parties of failing to back his tougher immigration policies. But Prime Minister Dick Schoof, an independent, accused the political maverick of irresponsibility, and the other coalition parties denied failing to support Wilders, saying they had been awaiting proposals from his PVV party's own migration minister.
On 2 June, Switzerland’s Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research (EAER) made the decision to implement part of the EU’s 17th package of sanctions against Russia, as reported by Swiss Federal Council. The EAER expanded its sanctions list by incorporating 17 individuals and 89 legal entities targeted by the EU into its latest sanctions package. Switzerland also added 189 vessels to its blacklist. These ships are believed to belong to Russia’s shadow fleet. Additionally, the country expanded the list of sanctioned goods.
Gorizia welcomed the RT Doc festival, marking the first time a Kremlin-aligned media event has taken place on NATO soil. The event featured Russian propaganda narratives and drew figures from both left and right
Over the weekend, the northeastern Italy city of Gorizia—European Capital of Culture 2025 united with Nova Gorica, in Slovenia—became the first city in a NATO country to host RT.Doc: The Time of Our Heroes, a documentary festival sponsored by RT (formerly Russia Today), which the EU banned following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Reuters: French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni vowed to work jointly for a stronger Europe as they met on Tuesday following bilateral tensions over Ukraine, trade and relations with the United States. Their three-hour summit in Rome aimed to ease relations after hostility flared publicly in recent weeks, with officials close to Macron and Meloni privately or openly criticising their respective initiatives.
Chinese airlines are considering ordering up to 300 narrowbody and widebody Airbus SE (AIR.PA) aircraft as soon as next month when European leaders visit Beijing, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The order could rise to as many as 500 aircraft, one of the people told Bloomberg.
In other news…
The Korea Times: President Lee Jae-myung pledged Wednesday to make national unity his top priority, vowing to break with the era of divisive politics.
In his inaugural address at the National Assembly in Seoul, Lee cast himself as a “president for all,” emphasizing that the office carries a responsibility to serve every citizen — regardless of whom they supported at the ballot box.
"It is time to build bridges of coexistence, reconciliation and solidarity over the hatred and confrontation that have divided us,” Lee said. “Now is the moment to open wide an era of happiness for the people, filled with dreams and hope."
Lee Jae-myung has warned that rapid changes in the global order, including rising protectionism, pose a threat to his country’s survival, while a White House comment about his victory sparked consternation.
“The rapid changes in the global order such as rising protectionism and supply chain restructuring pose a threat to our very survival,” Lee said in his inaugural address, in an apparent reference to the global trade chaos sparked by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — from 25% to 50%. The decision takes effect today. According to Trump, raising the tariffs will “provide greater support to these industries and reduce or eliminate the national security threat posed by imports of steel and aluminum products, as well as their derivatives.” The decision will not apply to the United Kingdom — tariffs on imports from the UK will remain at the current level of 25%.
WaPo: India is deploying dozens of lawmakers and former ambassadors to more than 20 global capitals in a hastily organized diplomatic blitz aimed at reclaiming the narrative after its recent clash with Pakistan — and at building international support for a more muscular military approach to its archrival, writes The Post’s Niha Masih. India framed its strikes inside Pakistan, the deepest in more than half a century, as retaliation for a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. Now, it is working to convince its allies that the operation represents a new front in the global fight against terrorism.
WaPo: Global economic growth is expected to take a hit, in part as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, if major nations remain mired in unresolved trade disputes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a report released Tuesday. In Japan, there’s concern — and more than a little trepidation — over what a Nippon Steel deal and doubled tariffs portend for the economic relationship, our colleagues write.
The Cipher Brief: Texas is embracing its unofficial slogan in cybersecurity now that Governor Greg Abbott has signed legislation establishing the Texas Cyber Command, which will be the largest state-based cybersecurity force in the U.S. The agency will be headquartered in San Antonio and has received $135.5 million in funding for 2026-2027 to coordinate cyber attack response, bolster the cybersecurity of local government systems, and launch a new cyber threat intelligence center for Texas.
"Our state is under constant attack by cyber criminals, attacks that occur thousands of times every single second of every single day," Governor Abbott said at the signing on Tuesday. "Attacks often come from foreign actors from hostile countries like China, Russia, and Iran. They successfully attacked cities, counties, and government agencies in Texas, from Mission to Muleshoe. That changes today.” He asserted that the command will help Texas counter these attacks and become “a national leader in cybersecurity.” In sum, bad actors in cyberspace beware: don’t mess with Texas.
the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is facing cuts. A new document from the Department of Homeland Security details that President Donald Trump’s FY 2026 budget proposal calls for CISA to cut 1,083 positions and lose $495 million from its budget, which would be decreased to $2.4 billion. The cuts are comprehensive, impacting CISA from its regional operations to its election security programs.
NBC News reports that President Trump reportedly does not read daily intelligence briefings, preferring to watch TV. The U.S. Director of National Intelligence is considering delivering briefings in a video format similar to Fox News, focusing on economy and trade, with other topics, including the war in Ukraine, presented in a condensed form. (Mo: He mirrors so many students I run into that never open a book, but they’re lazy students: he’s the president of the United States.)