June 9: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Up to 600 drones are expected over Ukraine on Sunday night, primarily approaching from the north, with potential launches from multiple directions (Sumy, Kharkiv), monitoring sources report. Repeated and additional launches are reportedly already underway, especially from Russia’s Kursk region.
Stories we’re following…
Russia hits Ukraine with 206 drones, 9 missiles early Sunday morning, Air Force says. Ukraine also downed 87 Russian combat drones, while 80 drones were neutralized by electronic warfare systems or disappeared from radars, the Air Force said.
Russia bombs Kharkiv day after deadly overnight attack, killing 2, injuring 18. One of the bombs hit the Children's Railway, killing a 30-year-old woman who worked for Ukrainian Railways. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Russia's relentless assaults against the city of Kharkiv.
The stories of rescued Ukrainian children will soon be heard on the stage of New York’s Metropolitan Opera. Two boys rescued by the Save Ukraine US team from Russian so-called "re-education" camps have become the real-life inspiration for the characters in a new opera — "The Mothers of Kherson."
The opera will premiere in Warsaw in October 2026, and in the fall of 2027, it will be staged at New York’s world-renowned Metropolitan Opera. The production is currently in development at one of America’s leading theater centers.
In an unusual move, the team has already shared some details a year ahead of the premiere. The music is composed by Ukrainian composer Maksym Kolomiiets, with a libretto by American playwright George Brant.
The opera tells the story of two mothers from Kherson who embark on a 3,000-mile journey to rescue their daughters being held in a Russian camp in Crimea. This storyline is based on the true stories of two boys rescued by Save Ukraine.
“We don’t want the world to forget what is happening. This is an artistic way to remind them,” said Peter Gelb, general manager of the Metropolitan Opera, as quoted by the New York Times.
I am deeply grateful that the stories of rescued Ukrainian children will be heard on some of the world’s most prominent cultural stages. This is one more way to speak the truth about Russia’s crimes — and to make sure the world does not look away.
Combat Situation
ISW: The Russian military is likely unable to achieve its purported 2026 objectives, given the significant manpower and materiel losses Russian forces have sustained over the last three years of war and the Russian forces’ inability to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield.
Putin’s theory of victory depends on the Western alliance backing Ukraine, abandoning Ukraine as a necessary condition to bring about this scale of advance. Russia is very unlikely to seize half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues supporting Ukraine.
Russia captures village of Loknia in Sumy Oblast, monitoring group says. Located roughly 30 kilometers (some 18 miles) north of the city of Sumy, Loknia lies near the Russian border in a strategically exposed area.
In his evening address, President Zelensky stated that all three Russian Iskander missile launchers were destroyed in Bryansk region on June 5 as a result of a Ukrainian strike.
During a Ukrainian strike on the Iskander missile system in Bryansk region on June 5, 8 Russian servicemen were killed and 5 wounded, according to ASTRA sources. The attack occurred near Martyanovka village, Klintsovsky district, involving multiple missiles.
Ukrainian drone strikes Russian Tu-22 bomber: SBU releases new footage of Operation Spiderweb. The video shows the flight path of an FPV drone from the moment it takes off from the roof of a modular building to the moment before it strikes a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at the Belaya air base in Siberia.
Cyberattack on Russian Railways: Ukraine’s GUR Cyber Corps allegedly disabled key Russian Railways services. The zd.ru website experienced a major outage caused by a 6 GB/s data flow and 2.5 million packets per second, confirmed by Russian sources. Users lost access to multiple services.
A massive fire is raging at the “Hydromash” plant in occupied Melitopol Reportedly, the Russians set up yet another military base on the premises after the occupation. The blaze is intense — visible across the entire area! As usual, the cause of the fire has not been officially reported.
Ukraine downs fighter jet in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Air Force says. Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024. Reinforced by North Korean troops, Russia launched a push to recapture the region in early March, with Ukraine being forced to pull back from much of the initially taken territory.
Russia: Swiss fertilizer producer EuroChem's Azot factory attacked by Ukrainian drones in Novomoskovsk, Tula region. The facility was "one of Russia's largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers and ranked first in Russia in urea volumes" according to the neutral Switzerland.
Behind the Lines
How foreign influence works: Errol Musk, Dmitry Simes, Alex Jones and Paul Gallway are going to speak at Kostanin Malofeev and Alexander Dugin’s Forum Future 2050 ‘event’ on June 9 and 10 in Moscow. Musk’s father has already arrived in Moscow and was pictured standing in Red Square with the Kremlin behind him.
Mo: Errol Musk’s presence at a conference organised by Kostantin Malofeev is highly unacceptable given Musk’s contracts with the USG and military.
Volnyja Pashtouki: Siarhei Ramanau spent his 31st birthday behind bars – 24½ years in prison. Siarhei is a political prisoner in Belarus with one of the harshest sentences. He faces terrible conditions and pressure yet continues to resist. Look at Siarhei's touching drawings.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
The cooling of an overheated Russian economy is turning into stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation, warns Dmitry Belousov from the analytical center CMAKS, which is close to the authorities, in a report : “Russia is in a state of ‘being pulled into stagflation’ – economic dynamics are rapidly declining (and there is a risk of technical recession in the second and third quarters), and inflation remains high.”
Beloussov describes how this situation is taking shape. Economic activity is slowing down “almost frontally,” the budget impulse is diminishing, the possibilities of “cheap” import substitution, without significant investment, are exhausted, but the possibilities for them are narrowed by high interest rates, a wage race, and an increase in the profit tax. Now the Russian economy may find itself in front of a combination of tight budget and monetary policies, Beloussov fears, recalling that “last time” (2012–2013) this led to its being drawn into stagnation.
Putin stated: “The most important issue in the country today is climate change.”
Rospotrebnadzor has found salmonella in sausages of the popular brand "Papa Mozhet". A message about this appeared in the Federal State Information System "Unified Register of Inspections". The bacteria were found in "Molochnye" sausages produced by the Ostankino Meat Processing Plant. The product was selected for testing in one of the stores of the "Svetofor" chain in the Tver Region. As specified, the contaminated batch was manufactured at the enterprise's production site in the city of Gagarin in the Smolensk Region, where the company's main livestock and processing facilities are located.
A case of mass poisoning of children was recorded in the Orlyonok health camp located in the Kalachinsky District of the Omsk Region. According to the press service of the regional Investigative Committee of Russia, 11 minors aged 7 to 14 were affected. All of them were hospitalized in an infectious diseases hospital with the same symptoms. "The children's condition is currently satisfactory," the department's official statement reads.
The head of the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce, Vincenzo Trani, dropped a startling statistic into a recent interview. More than three years ago, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine made it the world’s most sanctioned country and rained down reputational risk on Western companies doing business there. Despite that, 70% of Italian companies active in Russia have stayed.
In a conversation with the Russian business news website RBC, Vincenzo Trani described the indecision among Italian executives following Russia’s trampling of the Ukrainian border on Feb. 24, 2022. Confusion and more than a bit of panic were widespread among businesspeople of every nationality in the early days of the war — the stampede toward Moscow’s major airports was live testimony to expat sentiment.
When sanctions did not force the issue, the decision to stay or go included a multitude of common and specific criteria. Did anything set Italian companies apart?
Italian companies that stayed share certain characteristics. Executive uncertainty made an early — and easier — departure difficult. In August 2022, the Russian government began to force foreign companies through an increasingly punitive and politicized fire sale process. Most companies complained of feeling trapped in Russia.
Italian companies in Russia always felt relatively “comfortable” in Russia, Trani told RBC, and never thought they would meet the same post-invasion hostility that companies from other countries felt. In the vast reallocation of assets that followed the start of the war, Putin seized German, Finnish, Danish and French companies, among others, and never gave them back. The Kremlin seized only one Italian company — Ariston, the heating equipment manufacturer — but ultimately returned it to its parent company. As a result, Trani said, Italian companies “were relatively less afraid than companies from Germany, Denmark, the USA…” The Ariston episode, reportedly the outcome of intense lobbying, gave Italian companies reason to be hopeful.
Trani also touched on one of the more important drivers of any company’s decision to do business in Russia: its appetite for risk.
“Italian companies are actually more prepared for complex situations, where the rules of the game are less understood,” he said. Trani likened Italian companies to their Russian counterparts for their ability to adapt, but took the concept a step further. Italian companies, he said, were eager to see where things would lead post-invasion.
The interview with RBC includes lingering, even nostalgic, references to a type of Italian exceptionalism in Russia and the historical ties between the two countries. Trani sounds proud recounting that the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce traces its origins to 1965, the year before Fiat’s landmark investment in the Soviet automotive industry. Even the late Silvio Berlusconi — legendary pal of Russian President Vladimir Putin — gets a name check.
Italy’s UniCredit bank remains in Russia, opting to shrink and stay rather than sell at a loss. Reuters reported on May 28 that the bank had been approached by a group of Emirati companies interested in buying what remains of UniCredit in Russia, but at a deeply discounted offer. The Italian Central Bank is also making a larger financial services industry transaction at home, conditional on UniCredit’s exit from Russia.
The US Government is concerned about the construction of a Chinese mega-embassy in London.
“Deeply concerned” about sensitive cabling running underneath the site and “expects that all decisions will be taken with our (US and UK” national security in mind…”
Kaisa Paastela: Vladimir Putin's gamble is coming to an end - where will the final blow come from?
Putin’s rule is not based on self-confidence, but on fear. He rules in a climate of deep uncertainty about the legitimacy of his regime, its economic position and the loyalty of the elite. Putin’s approval ratings may be high, but in Russia, admiration can turn into rebellion without warning. That is why he surrounds himself with bunkers, reorganizes his inner circle to prevent anyone from gaining too much power, and invests heavily in surveillance and state media, Edel states.
The Russian economy is now increasingly dependent on the military industry, making war an existential necessity for the Kremlin. Peace would shut down the engine of growth. The Russian economy is on a shaky footing: exports are concentrated in raw materials and weapons, inflation is accelerating, the population is shrinking, and the brain drain continues.
At the same time, Russia's network of allies is limited. Iran and North Korea are unstable and economically weak. China's support, in turn, is cautious and conditional - Beijing does not want to jeopardize its own economic development because of Putin's adventures, Edel interprets.
Trump's wavering stance on the Ukraine situation and the president's new business dealings with Middle Eastern oil countries show how little Russia has to offer. Russia is incapable of offering a vision for the future. It may be able to disrupt the world order, but it cannot change it.
The stable and democratic states of Western Europe have deepened their cooperation due to Russian aggression, and Europe is able to absorb political shocks that would weaken an autocracy like Russia's.
– These countries will resist Russia's expansionist ambitions if they are threatened. Even without the US's involvement, Europe's military and economic power is significantly greater than Russia's. This leaves Putin with few options other than intimidation and harassment, Anastasia Edel estimates in her article in Foreign Policy.
Today, Russia is just another authoritarian state with no clear vision for the future.
Many Russians still believe that Ukraine is fighting “Nazis.” But when the awakening comes, according to Edel, it will be more severe than after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This time, Russians will have to see the atrocities committed in their name, he says, referring to war crimes in Ukraine.
– The policies of great leaders usually continue after them, but Putin’s machinations are most likely to end with him. He is the embodiment of personalized power, with no institutions, no unified ideology, and no followers capable of sustaining his leadership model without him.
– Whether the final blow comes from the new US administration, a rising China or a resurgent Europe, Putin’s game has already been lost. The question is who will recognize the limits of Putin’s position – and act accordingly. Perhaps Europe is finally preparing to do this, Edel sums up.
One of my favourite films: The Death of Stalin. If you want to understand Russian leadership and society, this is your film.
Extrema Ratio: China's Expanding Military Footprint: Presence and Strategy in the Red Sea, Mediterranean, and North Africa.
China's military presence in the Red Sea, Mediterranean, and North Africa is rapidly growing, centered on its only confirmed overseas military base in Djibouti.
This expansion is driven by economic interests linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the need to protect its overseas assets and citizens.
China extensively leverages investments in dual-use commercial ports throughout the region, which could be utilized for military purposes. The Chinese Navy (PLAN) regularly conducts deployments and participates in joint exercises, particularly with Russia and Egypt, signaling a growing capability to operate in distant waters.
In North Africa, China strengthens its influence through military cooperation and arms sales, even though its market share is lower compared to Western suppliers.
Overall, China's strategy aims to project its global power, secure vital trade routes, and assert a more prominent role in international security affairs.
NYT: Secret Russian Intelligence Document Shows Deep Suspicion of China
In the corridors of Lubyanka, the headquarters of Russia’s domestic security agency, known as the F.S.B., a secretive intelligence unit refers to the Chinese as “the enemy.”
This unit, which has not previously been disclosed, has warned that China is a serious threat to Russian security. Its officers say that Beijing is increasingly trying to recruit Russian spies and get its hands on sensitive military technology, at times by luring disaffected Russian scientists.
The intelligence officers say that China is spying on the Russian military’s operations in Ukraine to learn about Western weapons and warfare. They fear that Chinese academics are laying the groundwork to make claims on Russian territory. And they have warned that Chinese intelligence agents are carrying out espionage in the Arctic using mining firms and university research centers as cover.
The threats are laid out in an eight-page internal F.S.B. planning document, obtained by The New York Times, that sets priorities for fending off Chinese espionage. The document is undated, raising the possibility that it is a draft, though it appears from context to have been written in late 2023 or early 2024.
Ares Leaks, a cybercrime group, obtained the document but did not say how it did so. That makes definitive authentication impossible, but The Times shared the report with six Western intelligence agencies, all of which assessed it to be authentic.
“You have the political leadership, and these guys are all for rapprochement with China,” said Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russia’s intelligence services who lives in exile in Britain and who reviewed the document at the request of The Times. “You have the intelligence and security services, and they are very suspicious.”
Three days before Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, the F.S.B. approved a new counterintelligence program called “Entente-4,” the document reveals. The code name, an apparent tongue-in-cheek reference to Moscow’s growing friendship with Beijing, belied the initiative’s real intent: to prevent Chinese spies from undermining Russian interests.
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. While in the UK, he will hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US side.
In Europe…
Germany is drawing up plans to rapidly expand its network of bomb-proof bunkers and shelters, the government’s most senior civilian protection official has said, warning the state needs to be prepared for an attack from Russia within the next four years.
“For a long time, there was a widespread belief in Germany that war was not a scenario for which we needed to prepare. That has changed. We are concerned about the risk of a major war of aggression in Europe,” he told the Süddeutsche Zeitung news outlet.
French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Greenland on June 15 in a show of support for the autonomous Danish territory coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump. During his stay, he will meet with Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the French and Danish governments said on Saturday. The leaders are expected to discuss North Atlantic and Arctic security, climate change, energy transition and critical materials.
Germany finally to begin countering the blitz of Russian disinformational attacks. German MP Roderich Kiesewetter has called for urgent measures to counter rising Russian cyberattacks and sabotage attempts. Among his proposals:
Expel remaining Russian agents and diplomats;
Shut down Russian-linked institutions, including the “Russian House” in Berlin, operated by Rossotrudnichestvo—already under EU sanctions since 2022;
Restrict visas and ban propaganda events or speakers;
Block Kremlin propaganda portals in Germany.
Kiesewetter also proposed launching a “disinformation alert app”, similar to the Nina emergency system, to warn citizens of Russian information operations in real time. He advocates creating a dedicated agency to detect and counter disinformation using hybrid methods—an institutional response to Russia’s systematic attempts to destabilize Europe from within.
Finnish PM criticizes reported attempts by Trump to weaken Russia sanctions bill. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo on June 7 criticized a weakened Russia sanctions bill amid reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring the Senate to weaken the legislation.
The Guardian: Could Canada join the EU?
Joachim Streit has never stepped foot in Canada. But that hasn’t stopped the German politician from launching a tenacious, one-man campaign that he readily describes as “aspirational”: to have the North American country join the EU.
“We have to strengthen the European Union,” said Streit, who last year was elected as a member of the European parliament. “And I think Canada – as its prime minister says – is the most European country outside of Europe.”
What he saw was a relatively unexplored relationship, one that could prove mutually beneficial as the world grapples with rapidly reshaping global dynamics. “Canadians have seen their trust in the US undermined, just as we have in Europe, following President Trump’s actions,” he said. “We need to strengthen the ties that bind us to our friends.”
While he admitted that the possibility of Canada as a full member of the EU “may be aspirational for now”, he wondered if it was an idea whose time had come.
“Canada would be a strong member,” he said. “If Canada would be a member of the EU, it would rank 4th in terms of GDP. It’s part of Nato. And 58% of (working-age) Canadians have college degrees.”
Canada also has vast energy reserves – an asset that could prove useful to the bloc, which is still struggling to wean itself off Russian gas, he added.
Media outlets on both sides of the Atlantic have delved into the idea, while a February poll of 1,500 Canadians found 44% of them believed Canada should look into joining the EU.
In March, however, a European spokesperson appeared to pour cold water on the suggestion, citing an article in the EU treaty that specifies only European states can apply to join the EU.
Streit brushed off the technicality, pointing to France’s overseas territories. “Those are also not in Europe, but those islands belong to the European Union,” he said. Cyprus, considered EU territory but located geographically in west Asia, was another example.
And if one wanted to get technical, Canada was – albeit in a minuscule way – connected geographically to Europe, he said. “Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, shares a border with Canada,” he said, pointing to the divide that runs through the uninhabited half-mile square Hans Island.
Undaunted, he sent a letter to two EU commissioners calling for a sort of political Erasmus to be launched between the bloc and Canada. What he envisions is a professional exchange programme that would allow EU officials to better grasp the nuances of Canadian federalism and Canadians to get a sense of the workings of European institutions.
“It would serve as both a symbolic and practical step toward deeper integration,” he said, one that could build on existing ties such as the EU-Canada trade deal and Canada’s participation in the EU’s flagship science research programme, Horizon.
Since launching the campaign, he’s been in constant contact with Canadians; meeting twice with one of Canada’s high-ranking envoys to the EU and meeting with a Brussels-based association that promotes Canada-EU trade.
In other news…
Demonstrators gathered near the federal building in downtown LA after dozens were detained in immigration raids around the city. The demonstrations continued Saturday with tear gas and flash bangs being used in an effort to disperse the crowd.
Governor of California, Gavin Newsom: “The Secretary of Defense is now threatening to deploy active-duty Marines on American soil against its own citizens. This is deranged behavior.”
Trump is deploying 2,000 National Guardsmen to Los Angeles in response to protests over immigration enforcement there. Claiming local officials had failed to deal with the unrest, Trump said the federal government would “solve the problem, RIOTS & LOOTERS, the way it should be solved!!!”
Governor Newsom added later on: “The federal government is taking over the California National Guard and deploying 2,000 soldiers in Los Angeles — not because there is a shortage of law enforcement, but because they want a spectacle. Don't give them one. Never use violence. Speak out peacefully.”
Some in law enforcement see the deployment of the National Guard as an overreaction that may backfire and provoke additional agitators, one senior law enforcement source involved in responding to the Los Angeles protests told CNN.
Trump posted this message on his platform at 2:41 a.m.
US Attorney for the Central District of California Bill Essayli issued a stark warning to violent protesters Saturday evening, saying they could be identified by surveillance cameras across the city.“We’re going to look into the leaders of the operation,” Essayli told CNN affiliate KCBS/KCAL, describing what he claims is a “highly organized, highly coordinated” movement.
The Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department told CNN some remaining protesters threw fireworks at law enforcement, while officers formed a skirmish line to push people away from the area. Earlier in the evening, protesters in Paramount, southeast of Los Angeles, were throwing objects and exhibiting “violent behavior towards federal agents and deputy sheriffs,” the LASD said in an advisory late Saturday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson: yah, sure, let’s send in the Marines.
According to U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), roughly 300 Soldiers with the 79th Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the California National Guard have been federalized and deployed to protect three separate federal facilities across the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, under order from U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
On Sunday, California governor Gavin Newsom urged protestors to stay peaceful, saying that Donald Trump is “sending 2,000 national guard troops into LA county – not to meet an unmet need, but to manufacture a crisis”. Newsom, who previously warned that Trump’s decision was for the sake of a spectacle, said:
“He’s hoping for chaos so he can justify more crackdowns, more fear, more control. Stay calm. Never use violence. Stay peaceful.”
Immigration officers could be in California for a month, a Democrat congresswoman has been told.
Nanette Barragán, who has Paramount in her constituency, said she has been told to prepare for a large presence of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.
“We’ve been told to get ready for 30 days of enforcement. Thirty days of ICE enforcement,” Barragán told CNN’s Dana Bash today, adding that the presence of national guardsmen is “going to escalate the situation.”
“We haven’t asked for the help. We don’t need the help. This is [President Trump] escalating it, causing tensions to rise. It’s only going to make things worse in a situation where people are already angry over immigration enforcement,” she said.
The Daily Beast: Elon Musk’s goons at DOGE transmitted a large amount of data—all of it undetected—using a Starlink Wi-Fi terminal they installed on top of the White House, according to a new report.
The officials in charge of protecting the White House’s communications were not informed of the installation ahead of time, insiders told the Post.
At the time, DOGE said installing Starlink was intended to address connection “dead zones” on the White House compound. However, the insiders suggested that the move was intended to bypass White House systems that track the transmission of data—with names and time stamps—and secure it from spies.
“Starlink doesn’t require anything. It allows you to transmit data without any kind of record or tracking,” one insider told the Post. “White House IT systems had very strong controls on network access. You had to be on a full-tunnel VPN at all times. If you are not on the VPN, White House-issued devices can’t connect to the outside.”
“With a Starlink connection, that means White House devices could leave the network and go out through gateways,“ the person said. “It’s going to help you bypass security.”
Colombian presidential candidate shot at by a teenager. Miguel Uribe is in critical condition after being shot multiple times by a 15-year-old attacker in Bogota, Columbia. The incident happened during a campaign rally in a public park. Reports say others may be injured. Colombia's presidential election is set for 2026. (Video: warning, contains graphic images)
The anti-Russia sanctions bill will undergo significant changes as it moves through Congress and consultations with the Trump team, potentially taking considerable time — Politico. Despite this, strong bipartisan support signals momentum for tougher action. Senate voices are increasingly backing new sanctions on Russia.
An international neo-Nazi terrorist organization, The Base, is boldly continuing to build in the US and planning a new paramilitary training event without fear of local authorities or the FBI, which once dismantled it in a nationwide effort.
The Base, founded in 2018 by a former Pentagon contractor living in Russia and now suspected of Kremlin-sponsored espionage, once boasted close to 50 stateside members before the bureau made more than a dozen arrests in a years-long counter-terrorism operation.
Now, the Base has a presence in Ukraine, performing sabotage operations inside the country against the embattled government, and new and dangerous cells emerging across Europe, and it appears to be growing in the US, where the FBI under the Maga acolyte Kash Patel has signalled it isn’t prioritizing investigations of far-right extremism.
Online evidence from its various accounts, several of which live on Russian servers to avoid censorship on American sites, shows the Base has real plans for a national gathering this summer where members intend to train in paramilitary drills as in years past.
“The Base in [the] USA is preparing for an upcoming national training event,” reads one of its recent posts soliciting crypto donations. “This one might be our most attended training event in [the] USA in a while. We could really use some financial support to help our members with travel expenses.”