Mar 1: Eyes on Moldova
Thread and readings: Lautman, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, McGrath & Jardan, Farkas, Cenusa
Eyes on Moldova
Olga Lautman, Russia sets their eyes on Moldova- Russia’s War on Democracy (April 2022)
Over the past several weeks there has been a significant uptick of heated rhetoric and disinformation directed at Moldova. It has gotten worse over the past two weeks and became even more worrying over this weekend. Since last year I have been warning about Moldova being a target. After Putin’s puppet, Dodon lost the election in 2020, Russia began an aggressive disinformation campaign toward Moldova and the Sandu government. Last fall, Russia weaponized energy putting pressure on Moldova along with other European countries, in particular Germany. Since Russia launched their brutal war crimes campaign on Ukraine the threat toward Moldova has increased. At the center of this is Russian-occupied Transnistria (the West recognizes Transnistria as belonging to Moldova) which hosts Russian troops and could be used as a launchpad for Russia’s operations against Odesa and southern Ukraine.
Russia uses the presence of their troops in Transnistria to put pressure on Moldova and run destabilizing operations against Moldova. The situation is very similar to Russia’s occupation of Donbas and it was no surprise that shortly after Putin signed his illegal decree in February to recognize Donbas as Russian territory the Kremlin puppets in Transnistria requested the same recognition.
Over the past few weeks, the attacks on the Moldovan government in Russian media and the propaganda by Russian propagandists have been escalating. It feels very similar to the months leading up to the launch of Putin’s brutal campaign in Ukraine. This took an alarming turn over the weekend when Russian media reported that Russia may soon recognize the independence of Transnistria (Pridnestrovie) in the near future. Hours after Putin signed the decree recognizing Donbas there were reports that Russian tanks rolled into Donbas. A few days later Russia officially launched their war against Ukraine.
The following are several alarming developments that were reported in Russian media over the weekend.
Here comes Russia’s pretext for protecting Russian speakers which they have used for other invasions
-On April 22, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that the goal of the "second phase of the special operation" in Ukraine is to control the south of Ukraine, which will make it possible to gain access to Transnistria, "where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population."
Russia calls President Sandu a “nazi” and announces that the recognition of Transnistria may come shortly to “uproot nazism.” Same pretext as Ukraine
From Moscow Times- Russian edition
The Russian authorities may recognize the independence of Pridnestrovie in the near future, said Viktor Vodolatsky, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs.
According to him, Pridnestrovie actually considers itself a part of Russia and wants to repeat the fate of South Ossetia, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Earlier, the authorities of these regions announced their desire to join the Russian Federation.
Vodolatsky said that Moldovan President Maia Sandu and “her Romanian curators” allegedly want to implement the Ukrainian scenario in Transnistria and unleash a war.
The deputy called Sanda herself a Nazi, since St. George ribbons were recently banned in the country, and now Russia needs to “uproot Nazism” in Moldova.
Pridnestrovians are our citizens. They understand that only together with Russia they themselves, their children and grandchildren can continue to live in safety and peace. All this nationalism, Nazism, which has taken root next to us, should simply be destroyed, uprooted and forgotten about for many years.
Viktor Vodolatsky added that the Pridnestrovians "are in isolation" and it is necessary to create a "corridor" to Russia.
Earlier, the acting commander of the Central Military District, Rustam Minnekaev , announced that, as part of the “second phase” of hostilities in Ukraine, the Russian army should establish full control over southern Ukraine in order to secure access to Transnistria. There, according to him, there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.
“ Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, the whole of Europe, the whole world was against us. And now it’s the same, they never liked Russia ,” the officer said.
This conspiracy I found particularly alarming and it took me a bit to trace back the disinformation that I was seeing on social media to its source.
All day I was seeing Russian disinfo accounts spreading insanity of Romanian troops infiltrating Moldova and preparing to disguise themselves in Moldovan military uniforms to start a war. I couldn’t understand where this troubling insanity was coming from and finally found the interview where this “insider information” was revealed. It is even worse than I thought. The person who revealed this information is terrorist Igor Girkin aka Igor Strelkov, a Russian intelligence officer, who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea and occupation operations in Donbas.
The following is his interview printed in Russian media outlet Moskovsky Komsomolets
Strelkov was put in his place about the "annexation of Moldova"According to Strelkov, in all headquarters, a significant part of the Moldovan officers were replaced by officers of the Romanian army (in all key positions), and in the commandant companies of military units that perform the functions of the military police, the personnel were completely replaced by Romanians.
Also, according to him, on the territory of Moldova, warehouses of military uniforms and footwear, NATO army rations and other auxiliary military equipment are being hastily created and filled from outside. The weapon is not imported. Girkin's sources suggest that this is not necessary: when the Romanian army occupies Moldova, it will "come with everything of its own." Mobilization of Moldovans, in all likelihood, is also not planned.
The statements of the former Minister of Defense of the DPR, specifically for MK, were commented by the director of the International Institute of Recent States, political scientist Alexei Martynov .
“It is clear that these statements by Girkin are just a way to remind yourself of a loved one who was completely forgotten against the backdrop of a special operation in Ukraine,” the expert believes. “There is absolutely nothing behind them. We have been hearing these tales from Transnistria for 30 years. Although a Romanian plane flew past there for the last time, probably back in 1992 ...
- Is the annexation of Moldova by Romania such an incredible scenario?
- Why is it Romania?
- They want to unite for a long time, that's a good reason.
- To unite and send troops is a big difference. With all due respect to Romania, this is not Erdogan's Turkey, which, on the sly against the backdrop of this whole situation around Ukraine, goes and takes its own in Iraq. This is not India, which is now taking Punjab, and not China, which, perhaps, will also soon go to take away its own type of Taiwan ...
- Sandu is a citizen of Romania.
- So what? Half of the governments there have Romanian citizenship. 7 of the nine constitutional judges are Romanian citizens. 70-80% of MPs have Romanian passports. Why send Romanian troops into Moldova if it is already tightly integrated with Romania. Exactly as far as Romania needs it.
- And what will happen if the Russian Federation recognizes Pridnestrovie?
- To recognize Pridnestrovie is to automatically push Moldova into Romania. This formula is already 20 years old. In order for Moldova to become Romania, no Romanian troops need to be brought in.
- But maybe Chisinau is afraid that it is the Russian Federation that can send troops?
- What for? In Transnistria, there are already 1,800 Russian soldiers, plus military depots, which are still full. If there is an Ossetian scenario - an attack on peacekeepers, then the conversation is different. But I don't think this will happen.
In order to send troops, you need some reason. There are no such grounds for Moldova. Nothing threatens Moldova, except for Ukrainian refugees, who have already smashed Chisinau. Romania is now run by an ethnic German who knows how to count money. And in principle, they do not need any annexations or unifications. Unification is a serious subsidence in incomes, living standards of the population. Everything they need from Moldova, they already have. Romania is, by the way, a NATO country.
This is the same story as that the Poles will now take the Lviv region. If they don't, no one will let them.
Sergey Markov, Putin’s close adviser and political scientist, continues spreading Romania disinformation via a Facebook post earlier today.
“A military attack on Transnistria should begin in the near future. The Romanian army is already deployed in Moldova. Group expansion is underway. Soon there will be military provocations and then an attack. Romania with the support of NATO and with the participation of the Ukrainian army plans to seize Transnestria and carry out mass political repression against all supporters of Russia. This will put Russia in a very difficult position. After the military operation, Romania plans an enshlus in Moldova.”
Markov’s statement came shortly after a series of explosions that targeted the Ministry of State Security building in Tiraspol, Transnistrian. From RIA Novosti “As a result of the incident, windows were broken in neighboring buildings. No casualties have been reported. Eyewitnesses report that next to the building are several objects that look like tubes from grenade launchers.” Of course Russian correspondent from Russian state media outlet Ria Novosti was on the scene to capture it all.
Weeks before the start of Russia’s war they orchestrated a series of attacks to provide a pretext for their invasion due to the “dire situation” in Eastern Ukraine. Of course, it was Russian intelligence operatives who were committing all the attacks in Donbas. It feels like Russia is setting up a similar scenario with Transnistria.
Another interesting thing happened hours after the initial explosions in Tiraspol. Reports began circulating on Russian social media of another series of explostion in the city of Parcani. These social media posts were reporting this 2nd attack citing Russian media reports. I checked all Russian media outlets and couldn’t find a thing on this incident.
My final thoughts on this.
Breaking news over the weekend reported Russia’s “new” objectives in Ukraine, which include gaining full control of southern and eastern Ukraine. It really isn’t new because this has been Russia’s military strategy for over a decade and what they attempted to achieve during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. One of the main reasons is to control the ports and have significant presence in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Gaining control over Moldova plays into this strategy and why we must pay close attention.
Romania Warns Of 'Fake News' About It Massing Troops On Moldovan Border- RFE/RL
Romania's Defense Ministry has warned that dozens of social-media posts claiming Bucharest has been massing troops and military equipment at its border with Moldova are part of "a fake news" campaign launched by the Kremlin since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
"We remind everyone that the accuracy of such sensationalist and panicky information can best be verified by consulting official sources," the ministry said on February 28.
Moldova is sandwiched between EU- and NATO-member Romania and Ukraine, with which it shares a 1,200-kilometer border. Russia maintains more than 1,000 troops in Moldova's separatist region of Transndiester.
Russia has falsely claimed that Ukraine is planning to invade Transdniester, raising suspicions that Moscow is looking for a pretext to annex the separatist region, as it did with Ukraine's Crimea in 2014.
Moldova's pro-Western President Maia Sandu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have warned that Moscow is planning destabilizing actions inside the country to justify a Russian invasion from Transdniester that could transform Moldova into a launch pad for Russian attacks on Ukraine.
A Twitter account called Geoinsider that bears the site's "verified" blue check mark published on February 26 an image allegedly depicting Romanian troops moving toward the Moldovan border.
The caption of the image read, "Romania deployed antiaircraft systems to the border with Moldova. Romanian military tanks and armored vehicles have also been deployed at the border."
The post by the account, which claims to be located in the U.S. state of Massachusetts and reports "geopolitical & military news from all over the world,” has since been deleted.
However, it was reposted several hundred times by dozens of Twitter accounts, with some even claiming that Romanian troops had already crossed into Moldova.
In a statement to RFE/RL, Defense Ministry spokesman Constantin Spinu rejected those claims, saying that "there have been no changes whatsoever in the deployment of Romanian forces and antiaircraft systems."
Spinu told RFE/RL that the Romanian military had been facing a wave of fake news since the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with some posts going viral.
He said the Defense Ministry had established its own anti-fake-news platform called Inforadar to discredit and dispute the fake claims.
The ministry said separately on February 27 that the screenshots posted on social media were actually taken during the National Day military parade in the city of Alba Iulia on December 1, 2022, and that familiar landmarks, such as the city stadium, are visible in the background on video.
Seth Hettena: Trump's DNI Richard Grenell did consulting work in 2016 for Moldovan politician Vladimir Plahotniuc. The US and UK sanctioned Plahotniuc in 2022 for corruption. A week ago, Plahotniuc was named in a Russian plot to topple the Moldovan government.
Stephen McGrath & Cristian Jardan, Moldova’s president outlines alleged Russian plot to topple government- LA Times
Moldova’s president outlined Monday what she described as a plot by Moscow to use external saboteurs to overthrow her country’s government, put the nation “at the disposal of Russia” and derail its aspirations to one day join the European Union.
President Maia Sandu’s briefing came a week after President Zelensky said his country had intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova, claims that were later confirmed by Moldovan intelligence officials.
“The plan for the next period involves actions with the involvement of diversionists with military training, camouflaged in civilian clothes, who will undertake violent actions, attack some state buildings and even take hostages,” Sandu told reporters at a briefing.
“The purpose of these actions is to overthrow the constitutional order, to change the legitimate power from Chisinau to an illegitimate one,” Sandu said, “which would put our country at the disposal of Russia, in order to stop the European integration process.”
Sandu said that, between October and December, Moldovan police and its Intelligence and Security Service, or SIS, have intervened in “several cases of organized criminal elements and stopped attempts at violence.”
She said that Moldova’s Parliament must adopt laws to equip its Intelligence and Security Service and the prosecutor’s office “with the necessary tools to combat more effectively the risks to the country’s security.”
Sandu added that the plan would “rely on several internal forces but especially on criminal groups,” and went on to name two Moldovan oligarchs, Ilan Shor and Vladimir Plahotniuc, both of whom are currently in exile. Both men last year were sanctioned by the U.S. and Britain.
Denis Cenusa, Testing Times for Moldova- CEPA
Moldova is engaged in a shadow war with the Kremlin amid concerns that Russia is trying to topple the democratically elected government of the small but geographically key republic wedged between Romania and Ukraine.
Socially vulnerable groups are the backbone of anti-government protests. They are often paid to participate in protests and know very little about the forces orchestrating such actions, most importantly those investigated for corruption and sanctioned abroad for enabling Russia’s malign influence in Moldova.
For example, in June 2017, a Moldovan court sentenced businessman Ilan Șor to seven and a half years in prison on charges relating to a $300m fraud, part of a larger scam that defrauded three of Moldova’s largest banks of some $1bn. Șor, now a Moldovan lawmaker who leads the Șor Party and holds six of the 101 seats in Moldova’s parliament, reportedly now lives as a fugitive in Israel.
His party organized a big anti-government rally earlier in February. Șor was the subject of US sanctions in 2022 for working with Russia to subvert Moldovan elections. One senior Russian politician praised Șor as a “worthy long-term partner.” Șor Party representatives in the legislature have on several occasions been investigated for illegal financing of the party, others have been arrested and documents have emerged detailing extensive links between it and Russia’s FSB. Șor has denied these allegations.
The Moldovan government has recommended a number of measures to counter the alleged Russian threat. First, Moldovan authorities will speed up legislative changes by giving more powers to the intelligence service and prosecutors. Participation in actions deemed favorable to Russia and that threaten national security will be offenses, according to changes in the Criminal Code in February 2023. Exponents of pro-Russian forces will be the first target.
There are concerns that efforts to strengthen the powers of law enforcement agencies lack strong checks and balances, which could lead to abuses. Earlier in February, for example, Moldovan border police prevented the entry of Serbian football fans and Montenegrin boxers after Sandu warned saboteurs from the two countries could be part of an alleged Russian coup plot. None of the barred individuals appeared to have a criminal record.
On February 19, the Șor Party organized an anti-government rally of several thousand participants in the Moldovan capital Chisinau. Police filed around 50 cases against the rally’s participants relating to minor offenses. So far, no weapons or explosives linked to alleged Russian subversive actions have been discovered. The pro-Russian opposition argues that the ruling PAS is using a supposed Russian threat to shore up the security focus of the new government, headed by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, a former security adviser to Sandu.
But after a difficult 2022, when Moldova’s security was shaken by a series of regional and national crises, the country appears more resilient in 2023. The Russian military’s plans to reach Moldova by occupying Odesa failed last year, meaning Russian main forces are still a long way from the country’s eastern frontier.
While the Kremlin can raise the pressure by firing missiles aimed at Ukraine through Moldovan airspace (as it has already done) and weaponize poverty and corruption through sympathetic forces inside the country, the government has gained institutional memory and has developed policies to counter these tactics.
While Russian-coordinated subversion cannot be ruled out, Moldovan authorities must also be vigilant about the risks emanating from Transnistria and Gagauzia, an autonomous territorial unit of Moldova, from where provocateurs, with or without military training, can easily travel by land to Chisinau. The most potent threats to Moldova that Russia can most quickly activate come from within.