Mar 10: E-Stories
Kharkiv Kherson Erdogan Taganrog CombatSit Taurus BehindLines PopeFR InRussia Allies Poland A&P UKDef ISW Sikorski KremlinFile Browder NoelReport EPPTusk Stalle EstonianIntel Massicot Grozev
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Hi Everyone, just a note about the high level of white noise in the information space at this time. The quantity will increase further as we move into the European Union elections, and into the summer with the US presidential elections. I may skip over a lot of the gossip, unless it seems like a story that will develop further.
10 Ukrainian children have been returned to Ukraine from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. The children report that the occupiers forced them to write letters and draw pictures for Russian soldiers who invaded Ukraine, and sing the Russian national anthem.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force: Ukraine downs 35 drones overnight. Ukrainian air defense units destroyed 35 of the 39 Shahed drones Russia launched overnight, the Air Force reported on March 10.
Kharkiv has been hit by Russian missiles for months now. When Olga and I spoke with Maria Avdeeva, she said the residents there felt like it was February 2022 all over again. Kherson is also being bombarded, and on Mar 8 a seven-year-old child was injured. Please follow Zarina Zabrisky’s reportage from Kharkiv for up-dates. Overnight on Mar 9, Russia attacked Ukraine with 15 Shahed drones of which 12 were shot down.
Russian drone attacks car in Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, kills 2. The strike was carried out by a first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drone, killing a 58-year-old man and a 53-year-old woman, the regional governor said. (Me: this is happening daily. Citizens going out to buy something at the supermarket or trying to live their lives as normally as possible are being attacked.)
Overnight on Mar 9, Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian city of Taganrog. Also in Kursk, explosions were heard due to UAV attacks. Dozens of drones attacked Taganrog, Russia. The target was the Beriev factory, where A-50 “flying radar” planes are repaired, several Russian channels write. “The Beriev plant is on fire,” the channel wrote about the state of emergency in Taganrog. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that a total of 47 drones attacked Russia of which most (41) the Rostov region. Allegedly all were shot down.
Governor: Explosions reported in Russian occupied cities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov said that an explosion had been reported near a Russian military base in Tokmak, and another at a warehouse in Melitopol used by Russian forces to store ammunition.
Erdogan offers to host Ukraine-Russia peace summit after meeting Zelensky. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey is ready to host a peace summit between Ukraine and Russia after the meeting with his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on March 8 in Istanbul.
President Zelensky’s response to Erdogan’s suggestion of inviting Russia to the next peace conference:
"We don't understand how we can invite people who destroy and kill everything. First, civilized countries will develop a plan, and only then will representatives of the Russian Federation be invited."
Combat Situation Update
ISW: There has been little to report in terms of changes in the front line recently. Ukrainian troops appear to be succeeding in halting Russian advances along many points of contact. However, Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting along the entire frontline on March 9.
Geolocated footage published on March 8 shows that Russian forces recently advanced further in central Orlivka (west of Avdiivka). Geolocated footage published on March 9 shows that Russian forces also marginally advanced in fields south of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka), though Russian forces likely did not make this advance recently.
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated on March 8 that the situation in the Avdiivka direction has stabilized and that Russian forces are currently only achieving localized marginal advances.
Air Force: Ukraine attacks Russian planes at distance of over 150 kilometers. The recent uptick in the number of downed aircraft led to a "significant" reduction in the number of Russia’s guided bomb strikes, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleschuk said.
Radek Sikorski, Poland’s Foreign Minister, talked about not dismissing the idea of a coalition of non-combat troops in Ukraine, and how it’s strategically savy to keep the Kremlin guessing at a conference on Mar 8.
France is building an alliance of countries open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine.
"It is not for Russia to tell us how we should help Ukraine in the coming months or years," French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said.
Behind the Lines
Ukraine's UN envoy: Russia trying to block maritime corridor through strikes on Odesa. Russia is trying to disrupt Ukraine's maritime corridor through constant strikes on Odesa, Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya said on March 8.
Zelensky urges Erdogan to bring Crimean Tatars back from Russian captivity. President Volodymyr Zelensky passed to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan the list of Ukrainian citizens, including Crimean Tatars, captured by Russia after their meeting on March 8 in Istanbul.
Ruslan Trad: An obscure clip showing "Arabs attacking Bulgarian youths" is circulating on the web. The title varies, but the content is the same. The video has been shared by various accounts, but does not match the date the alleged attack is said to have taken place. SDVR also claims that no investigation is being conducted in such a case.
Regardless, the result is an escalation of narratives and an assault on foreign students. A classic in misinformation. Nationalist formations are already taking advantage of the situation, and politicians are directing their attacks against the PP-DB, which had signed an agreement with Austria on the return of refugees (they haven't).
The Telegraph: European diplomats are urging NATO member nations to prepare for the possibility of the United States withdrawing from NATO if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House. Concerns have arisen regarding American support for Ukraine and the commitment to NATO in the event of Trump's reelection. The former president has previously suggested encouraging Russia to attack NATO members who do not meet their financial obligations, and there are predictions that he might seek to withdraw from the alliance.
Ansa: In a soon to be released interview with a Swiss channel, Pope Francis says Ukraine should have 'courage' to negotiate peace with Russia. "Don't be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse," Pope Francis said when asked whether Ukraine's potential negotiations with Russia would legitimize the aggressor.
Me: The Pope’s position has been clear since Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine: the Pope refuses to attribute blame to Russia for its aggression, and has mentioned the need for ‘negotiations’ before.
There are many reasons for this: the Vatican has shared long-standing relations with the Russian Orthodox Church, and as an institution the Vatican thinks in terms of its own survival. It is the longest surviving institution in the world. Last year, the Pope spoke at a youth conference in St Petersburg via video praising Russian culture and Catherine the Great.
The Pope’s position isn’t surprising but it is deeply questionable that he would advise the leader of a nation, and its people to surrender to Russia, knowing that this would lead to mass deportations, incarceration, and violence against Ukrainians in occupied territories. We know that this is already happening. He should have just kept his thoughts to himself. The question is why he didn’t.
Meanwhile in Russia
US Embassy in Russia issues warning of potential terror attack in Moscow over next 48 hours. The embassy did not specify what kind of threats they referred to, or who might be behind them. The U.K.'s Embassy in Russia also repeated the advisory issued by the U.S.
A multi-country prisoner exchange involving Russian opposition leader Navalny, which might have secured his release, was under discussion and progressing when he died last month. The exchange involved the involvement of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich.
Russian intelligence continue producing cheap-fakes (in addition to deep-fakes) impersonating legitimate media. The video alledges that Zalushnyi accepted a bribe and that this ‘crime’ was discovered by Christo Grozev. In un up-coming episode of KF, Olga and I will be talking to an malign influence specialist, Eto Buziashvili, who is at the DFL Lab, Atlantic Council, about this very topic. So, it’s a thing.
Trump calls Orban 'fantastic leader' as they meet in Florida. Former U.S. President Donald Trump praised Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as a "fantastic leader" while hosting him at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on March 8.
The Kremligarchs: a part of our conversation with Ilya Zaslavskiy, tracking Kremlin influece and capture in various sectors in the EU and in the US, and the impact . Part one of our chat is out on Monday, and Part 2 on Thursday. You can listen to all episodes here.
For someone whose close family almost all live in the West, you gotta start wondering what he’s banging on about. Peskov’s wife, Tatiana Navka, owned an apartment in the U.S., and was a U.S. citizen. Hi daughter and ex-wife own apartments in France, and his son, Nikolai Choles, has lived most of his life in England. Peskov's other daughter is a US citizen. How much money is Peskov and his boss laundering in the horrible West?
Allied Support
US Congress passes second government funding bill without Ukraine aid. Both chambers of the U.S. Congress approved a short-term stopgap spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown through the fall, sending it for signature to President Joe Biden.
This is ridiculous: House Speaker Mike Johnson and key House committee chairmen are working on an alternative Ukraine aid package to address concerns among conservatives. The preliminary plans include treating some nonmilitary aid as a loan, with economic aid supporting Ukraine's government and long-term rebuilding efforts.
Russian assets seized through sanctions could serve as collateral, and the loan program might have a generous repayment system. This approach aims to address conservative opposition to further U.S. funding for Ukraine, with concerns over the use of taxpayer dollars without a clear long-term plan. The proposed aid package could be ready for consideration after the government shutdown deadline on March 22.
Poland’s newly elected prime minister, Donald Tusk at the EPP conference on Mar 8: "The post-war epoch is gone" Europe must defend its territory and principles or "we will fall."
Polish parliament calls on European Commission to ban agricultural goods from Russia, Belarus. Calling the European Commission to impose sanctions on Russian agricultural goods was one of the suggestions proposed by Ukraine to Poland to solve the ongoing blockade led by Polish farmers.
Canada has joined the Drone Coalition, becoming the ninth country to do so. The announcement was made during the visit of Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds to Ottawa on March 7. The Drone Coalition, launched within the framework of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, aims to raise $1.5 billion to finance Ukrainian drone production.
The US Treasury warned Raiffeisen Bank International it risked "being cut off from the US financial system" if it was helping to fund Russia's military. Apparently OTP Bank of Hungary is under similar risk.
UK Defense Secretary Shapps visits Kyiv to 'raise alarm for democratic world.' U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said on March 8 that the U.K. has "stepped up to do more than ever" and pushed for other Western allies to do the same.
Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service: How to identify false narratives Russia is actively promoting about its brutal war of aggression against the Ukraine? The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has compiled a handy list.
Dana Massicot: Time is Running Out
If Ukrainian ammunition and manpower needs are not met, its battlefield position will continue to worsen before reaching a tipping point, possibly by this summer. This is no time for despair; it’s time for urgent action.
To create an effective strategy that capitalizes on Russia’s weaknesses, Western policymakers and observers need to see the Russian military for what it is: not the hapless, broken, depleted force that many wished it would be by now but a dangerous organization advancing in Ukraine.
Kyiv now finds itself in a sustainment crisis similar to what Moscow experienced by August 2022. Unlike Russia, Kyiv cannot mobilize its defense industry and quickly scale up production; it must rely on Western military assistance. Ukraine also has a smaller population.
I discuss political constraints that Russia has on manpower regeneration, and its eroding ammo advantages by 2025 and 2026 if the Western industrial base hits its targets. This will matter very little if Ukraine is not resourced for 2024.
Russia is pulling old equipment from strategic reserve to make up for losses and resource newly created units. Or as I call it, “The Last Ride of the Soviet Army.” It won’t matter if this equipment is old and less effective, if Ukraine is not resourced to destroy it.
Ukrainian frontline soldiers are in mounting jeopardy—not because they lack the will to fight or do not know their enemy’s weaknesses, but because of shortfalls in ammunition and manpower.
When Ukrainian forces are sufficiently manned, supplied, and entrenched, however, they have shown that they can inflict high costs on Russian forces and frustrate Russia’s ability to convert its on-paper advantages into decisive gains.
If the West, specifically the United States, does not want to see the frontline in Ukraine bend or—even worse—break, it must urgently approve aid. And if Kyiv wants to sustain its efforts, it faces difficult choices for manpower regeneration.
On March 7-8, the United States and Japan held the second annual U.S.-Japan Strategic Dialogue on Democratic Resilience in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. and Japanese delegations were led by Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights Uzra Zeya and Deputy Minister and Director General of the Foreign Policy Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan Kobe Yasuhiro, joined by senior representatives from their respective agencies.
The dialogue included discussions on our bilateral efforts to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific and promote human rights internationally, including through the rights-respecting design, development, deployment, and use of technologies. Under Secretary Zeya and Deputy Minister Kobe committed to deepening multilateral cooperation, including in the Human Rights Council, UN General Assembly Third Committee, and the UN Security Council. They further discussed building democratic resilience at home and abroad through business and human rights, women’s economic empowerment, advancing the human rights of LGBTQI+ persons, persons with disabilities, and other marginalized communities.
A ‘protest’ in Milano on Mar 8, which disrupted and coopted the International Women’s Day celebration. The ‘protesters’ have captured a fridge from MacDonald’s. “Coke Cola symbolises the exploitation on behalf of the big capitalist American cow of the weak…” This action comes at the same time as the girl who cut and trashed Lord Balfour’s painting in London.
Who are they? They have probably been recruited through student unions at university as early as the summer 2022, at least, when the micro-protests against NATO locations in Italy were organised and triggered by the ‘political’ party, Potere al Popolo (Power to the People). They couldn’t name the party ‘People’s Front’ as it was too Soviet.
And I ask the same questions every single day - why are Turkey and Hungary even in NATO and/or EU?? Apart from their geographical locations they appear to bring nothing to the table.