Mar 12: Sunday Stories
Day 382: Bakhmut Kherson Donetsk Lukashenko ForeignCash G20Putin Canada Norway Butkevych Iran-SaudiaArabia A&P-ISW UKDef Vogel Khara UAWorld Makuch Kirillova Soldatov/Borogan Avdeeva Amelina
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
UK Defense Ministry: Wagner takes control of ‘most of eastern part’ of Bakhmut, Ukraine holds western part. Wagner forces now face a new challenge with the Bakhmutka River that divides the city in two and now marks the front line.
ISW: Russia unlikely to make significant gains launching new counteroffensive in Vuhledar. Russia may attempt to launch another counteroffensive in Vuhledar but is unlikely to make significant gains due to issues with military personnel and ammunition supply, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian officials report Russian missile attacks in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Nikopol district on March 10. A car drove over a mine in the village of Ishchenka in Kherson Oblast, resulting in two deaths and two injuries.
Russian missile strikes targeted “critical infrastructure” in Zaporizhzhia, the Kyiv Independent reports. The strikes launched by Russia on March 11 likely came from S-300 air defense missiles, the outlet reported the Zaporizhzhia oblast military administration saying.
Iran has reached a deal to buy advanced Su-35 fighter planes from Russia, Iranian state media said on Saturday, expanding a relationship that has seen Iranian-built drones used in Russia’s war on Ukraine. “The Sukhoi-35 fighter planes are technically acceptable to Iran and Iran has finalised a contract for their purchase,” the broadcaster IRIB quoted Iran’s mission to the United Nations as saying in New York.
Lukashenko called up 250 officers from the reserve. The order signed by him is published on the website of the President of Belarus. The head of state drafted 230 men over 27 years old into the army, who did not complete military service but studied at the reserve officer training program. Another 20 officers were called from the reserve to the border service.
“The implementation of this decree will make it possible to increase the level of staffing of the primary military positions of officers in the Armed Forces, to ensure high-quality training of the mobilization reserve,” the report says.
The inflow of foreign currency into Russia continues to decline rapidly, along with income from the export of raw materials. In February, the largest exporting companies sold only $7.8 billion of foreign exchange earnings on the Moscow Exchange, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reported in its Financial Markets Risk Review.
The influx of the world's main currencies - the dollar and the euro - collapsed even more. If before the start of the war, 87% of settlements for exports took place in them, then by February - only 48%. Almost half of the transactions of Russian exporters are carried out in Chinese yuan and Russian rubles, according to the Central Bank.
Bloomberg: Putin might attend G20 summit in India. The Kremlin postponed the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, scheduled on the eve of the G20 summit in New Delhi, to open up the possibility of the trip to India, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.
Norway announces delivery of more NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine. The announcement came after a visit of Norwegian defense minister Bjørn Arild Gram to Kyiv on March 10, where he held talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, and other top officials.
UK, France to jointly train Ukrainian marines. The U.K. and France agreed to train Ukrainian marines, "helping to give Ukraine a decisive advantage on the battlefield and for Ukraine to win this war," U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on March 10, as quoted by Sky News.
Canada bans imports of aluminum, steel from Russia. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland announced a ban on the import of Russian aluminum and steel products.
Moscow Patriarchate to leave all premises of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. The Ukrainian government terminated the agreement with the Russian-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) on the free use of religious buildings located in the Lower Lavra, a part of Ukraine's most significant Orthodox monastery.
The UK government has written to Olympic sponsors urging them to pressure the International Olympic Committee over its proposal to allow Russians and Belarusians to compete at next year’s Paris Games, British media reported on Saturday.
Number of Ukrainian speakers increased to 71% amid full-scale war. The number of Ukrainians who speak Ukrainian in everyday life increased from 64% in 2021 to 71% in 2022, according to a survey conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
China’s successful brokering of a detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia on Friday forced the United States into the awkward position of applauding a major Middle East accord secured by its main geopolitical rival.
The agreement was the result of talks that began Monday as part of an initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at “developing good neighborly relations” between Tehran and Riyadh, the three countries said in a joint statement.
Media: Human Rights advocate turned soldier Butkevych sentenced to 13 years by Russian proxies in Donbas. Former Ukrainian journalist and human rights advocate Maksym Butkevych has been sentenced to 13 years in prison by Russian-led proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. According to international law, Russian-led militants' so-called "prison sentence" has no legal grounds.
He is Maksym Butkevych, a journalist and rights activist who has dedicated his life to promoting human dignity, transparency, and the rule of law. He joined Ukraine's Armed Forces after February 2022. Today Russian occupiers + proxies sentenced him to 13 years in prison.
Maksym has always stood up for the marginalised and for prisoners of conscience. As he did in 1990, he has voiced his support for freedom fearlessly. He is our colleague and our friend. Please learn his name and share his story.
Taras Kuzio Thread: What are Russians in Georgia saying
1) From a friend in Georgia showing how Russian exiles continue to support Putin: A v. small % Russians joined protests. Majority oppose the protests. In their telegram channels, they push 2 Kremlin narratives: "Georgians and Ukrainians are Nazis and are protesting together."
A 2nd narrative is: "I can imagine people protesting everywhere, but not in Georgia, you guys have Khachapuri and wine, so just enjoy and chill". They are trying to spoil the image of these protests. So there you have it. Most Russians exiles are not against war vs Ukraine
Nathalie Vogel Thread: What Germany needs to do, now.
Some of the voices who have lately reinvented themselves as advocates of the Ukrainian cause in German media were in fact delivering justifications for the foreign and security policy decisions of Angela Merkel.
They were praising her administration until the end and participated in witch hunts against Merkel's critics. These people penned studies which were commissioned in defense of her Russia policy for instance and these were funded by the government.
This is a practice which still exists. I find the opportunism of Masala, Major, Puglierin, Techau, Stelzenmüller et al simply nauseating. Einmal googln hälfe.
Ben Makuch, The CIA Says It's Already Fighting Russia's Wagner Mercenaries Abroad- Vice
In a plot that seems fit for a spy flick, the Central Intelligence Agency says it is secretly helping to fight against Russian mercenaries led by a villainous caterer.
CIA Director Bill Burns said that the agency is doing everything in its power to counter the Wagner Group—a key Kremlin ally and private military contractor with thousands of soldiers fighting everywhere from regional conflicts in Africa to Ukraine—today during a public hearing for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
“We work as an agency, along with our partners, to help many of those governments and many of our security service partners to resist that,” he said in the hearing, without providing specifics on what that support looked like. “We work with the French and with other countries, other allies in that effort as well.
“But we take very seriously the threat posed by [Wagner] in everything we can to counter it and disrupt it.”
There is also a growing movement within the U.S. government to designate Wagner as an official terrorist organization among groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. In early March, Attorney General Merrick Garland said he wouldn’t “object” to designating Prigozhin’s mercenary outfit with the official distinction. If that terror designation did happen, it would immediately hamper Wagner from engaging in the global economy along with other legal penalties and make their African operations more difficult to carry out.
Kseniya Kirillova, Putin’s Paranoia and Moldova- CEPA
Vladimir Putin’s regime has long invested in holding Moldova within its orbit. The dark operations of its military and intelligence services have been illuminated by various reports; its “peacekeeping forces” (an army of occupation) have severed the long sliver of Moldovan territory it calls Transnistria from the rest of the country, and its state-owned energy companies have delivered misery to the population and its economic prospects.
Now there is evidence — according to Moldovan and Ukrainian officials — that it is seeking to unseat the elected government and replace it with a more Kremlin-friendly alternative using pro-Russian local forces, as detailed by Moldovan President Maia Sandu on February 13.
As if to confirm her words, on February 28, a protest rally “Movement for the People,” which included representatives of the pro-Russian Șor and PACE parties, was held in the capital, Chișinău. Participants tried to break through the police cordon to the government building, which resulted in fighting between the protesters and law enforcement officers.
The official Russian media emphasized that the protesters not only opposed an increase in tariffs and prices (inflation rose above 30% last year), but also “demanded the resignation of the president and government.” Meanwhile, the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) commented that such behavior was designed to “destabilize the situation in the country” and help the head of the pro-Russian opposition, Ilan Șor, “hide from justice.” Șor, convicted in absentia, is believed to be in Israel.
Soldatov & Borogan, Russia’s Halfway to Hell Strategy- Foreign Affairs
The surprising reality of the September mobilization has highlighted a larger feature of Putin’s war in Ukraine. Often, the Kremlin has initially appeared to take a maximalist course. Instead of invading eastern Ukraine, it launched a full-scale assault on the whole country and tried to take Kyiv. In addition to deploying tanks, missiles, and heavy artillery, Putin has repeatedly made threats about using nuclear weapons. And he has seemingly been willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of men to fuel his war. At home, meanwhile, the government has announced extreme measures to clamp down on the Russian media and popular dissent as well as to put the Russian economy on a war footing.
et many of these moves have been considerably less severe in practice than they seem on paper. In Ukraine, despite increasing attacks on civilian areas, Russia has held back from using its full arsenal. And although Putin has done much to tighten his grip on Russian society in the year since the invasion, many of his most far-reaching domestic measures have been incompletely implemented. Again and again, the Kremlin has stopped short of total militarization and total mobilization—whether of the economy or of society at large.
By many indications, this partial approach to total war is not haphazard, nor is it simply the result of failed execution. Instead, Russia appears to be pursuing a deliberate strategy aimed at both the West and its own population. By staking out a maximalist stance on the war, the Kremlin can suggest to the West that it is prepared to do whatever it takes to win in Ukraine, without necessarily having to make good on its threats. At home, meanwhile, the Russian government can convey to ordinary Russians that it has the option of tightening the screws further, but that it is not going out of its way to alienate the population. In both cases, the strategy offers Putin an open path toward further escalation, but without the immediate costs.
