Mar 14: E-Stories
RUattacks Sumy Kryvyi Rih UAattacks Ryazan NORSI CombatSit BehindLines Voting InRussia Allies EUactivity MacronVideos TikTok A&P CDS UKDef ISW Kasputin VOUA BBC Davis Matviichuk Zubrin Lautman Denford
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Sochi Airport is on fire, Crimean Wind and Ukrinform report.
Stories we’re following…
During the night on Mar 13, Russia attacked Sumy region with Shahed drones. As a result of a drone hitting a 5-story building, there were fatalities.. in addition 10 people were rescued, 30 apartments were damaged, 15 of which were destroyed. In Kryvyi Rih, after yesterdays missile attack, the number of people injured has increased to 44.
President Zelensky: The debris in Sumy, where a Russian Shahed hit, is still being cleared. It destroyed part of an ordinary residential building. We managed to rescue five people from the rubble. All necessary services and equipment are involved. Everyone who suffered will be provided with assistance. I am grateful to each and every person who works for the sake of people and helps in the rescue efforts.
Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih kills 3, injures 44. The strike started a fire in a multi-story building. Multiple injuries have been reported, according to Governor Serhii Lysak.
An oil refinery in Ryazan was attacked and hit by Ukrainian drones overnight. Also in Kursk, Bilhorod, Voronezh, Bryansk and Leningrad regions, UAVs were spotted. Russia claims the downing of multiple drones. Rosneft Ryazan oil refinery, one of the biggest oil refineries in Russia, processes 17 million tons of oil per year.
The Ukrainian drone strikes also halted operations at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the Rostov region. Following the previous day's attack on Lukoil's NORSI refinery, these incidents mark a serious uptake in attacks on Russia's energy sector. Oil prices rose by 2%, reflecting concerns about potential supply disruptions.
If the West cannot enforce, for a lack of human resources or political will, sanctions that have been levied against the Russian oil industry, then this is one way of enforcing them.
Combat Situation Update
CDS: The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to stabilize the situation on the Avdiivka direction after the deployment of reinforcements; troop rotations are ongoing.
Russian forces have more EW equipment, unevenly distributed along the front. The enemy's armored vehicles are vulnerable to Ukrainian Defense Forces' UAV strikes due to the absence of dome EW systems.
Russian forces resumed attacks on the Berdyansk direction and are currently concentrating efforts in the areas near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
Russian forces continue to apply pressure in the Robotyne area, although the intensity of shelling has decreased.
Russian media report that as a result of a missile strike on a Russian military training ground in Tr'okhizbenka, occupied Luhansk, at least 10 Russian servicemen were killed.
Russian anti-Kremlin militia break into Russia, claim to occupy villages. The Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian Battalion crossed the border into Russia from Ukraine on March 12 to conduct combat operations, according to the Russian anti-Kremlin armed groups.
Freedom of Russia Legion fighters claim to have liberated a part of the village of Tetkino in the Kursk region. They add that the streets are being shelled heavily, but that they intend to move forward.
According to ASTRA, Russian forces faced casualties in clashes with groups like the Russian Freedom Legion and RDK. At least 4 Russian Guard servicemen were killed, 9 injured, with incidents involving drone attacks and a destroyed tank. Russian Defense Ministry personnel were wounded, and a Private Security Service member was injured in missile and UAV attacks.
Address of the Commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps Denis "White Rex" Kapustin to the inhabitants of the Russian Federation.
"The main task of the Corps is and will be the dismantling of the Kremlin regime and we will make our raids deep into the territory of the Russian Federation time after time, attracting more and more supporters. It is especially important for us to speak out on the eve of the farce called 'elections'."
Russian media: Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashes in central Russia, 15 reportedly killed. The confirmation came after Telegram channels shared videos of a plane on fire in the sky. The 112 Telegram channel claimed that all eight crew members and seven passengers died in the crash.
Where is Gerasimov? Well, he is reportedly dismissed as Chief of the Russian General Staff. According to Russian media, Lieutenant General Viktor Poznihir will temporarily perform the duties of the Chief of the General Staff.
Behind the Lines
Reuters: Polish farmers protesting at the Dorohusk border crossing with Ukraine will let all trucks stuck there pass through as a gesture of goodwill, a protest leader told state news agency PAP on Wednesday.
Poll: Vast majority of Ukrainians against Russian as official or state language. The poll reflects changes in Ukrainians' perception of the Russian language outside the domestic sphere since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
This is what voting looks like in temporarily occupied Sievierodonetsk.
Zelensky signs law on allowing soldiers to preserve reproductive cells for free. Ukrainian soldiers will be able to preserve their reproductive cells for free, allowing them to have children in case of death or injury, according to a law signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 12.
Lithuania seizes first car with Russian number plates after change in rules. Lithuania has seized the first Russian-registered car since a change in rules requiring Russian vehicles to be re-registered in Lithuania, Lithuanian Customs announced on March 12.
EU removes sanctions against Yandex co-founder Volozh. The EU sanctioned Arkady Volozh in June 2022, arguing that Yandex promotes pro-government narratives and is complicit in Russia's war against Ukraine. Volozh resigned as CEO of Yandex after being sanctioned.
Politico: Chancellor Scholz will host President Emmanuel Macron on Friday in Berlin. They’ll later be joined by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The meeting, officials say, is supposed to smooth fundamental differences between Berlin and Paris on Ukraine.
Both sides have realized they’re damaging each other with their “jostling”. Scholz wants a better relationship with Macron. France and Germany are “close and good friends.” But it must also be OK if there are “different points of view”.
Distrust has crept into the relationship between the capitals, including at the working level. Following their leaders’ example, ministers, state secretaries and officials on both sides in recent months seemed to talk more about each other than with each other.
The story below from the Financial Times raised eyebrows, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are other EU states that have the same challenges in modernising their communications and other aspects of their insfrastructure. I also assume that budgets for defence in most EU member states was at a bare minimum in February 2022 given the fact that they were not preparing for war. Russia’s war in Ukraine should have spurred many to upgrade their capacities. Just a word of caution: there is a concerted effort at this time to bring Germany towards the position of a growing coalition of member states to increase defence and do more for Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Russia
Vice President of Lukoil, Vitaly Robertus, 'suddenly' died at the age of 54. The company reported this on their website. All those fires that just pop up at their refineries must have an effect on the health of the people in charge.
Leonid Volkov, the former chairman of Alexey Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, was attacked outside of his home in Lithuania on Tuesday. Volkov later said his attacker broke one of his arms but failed to break his legs, despite striking them with a hammer “roughly 15 times.” Volkov said he would comment in more detail later but described the attack as “an obvious, characteristic, typical, gangster-style greeting from Putin.” Leonid Volkov told Reuters hours before an assailant attacked him with a hammer and tear gas outside his home in Lithuania that he and other exiles feared for their lives.
Volkov, the top aide to Alexei Navalny, said leaders of the late Russian opposition leader’s organisation knew they were facing “high individual risks” in an interview filmed on Tuesday hours before an unidentified attacker assaulted him outside his home.
“They know that Putin not only kills people inside Russia, he also kills people outside of Russia”, he said. “We live in very dark times”.
Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda said the attack on Leonid Volkov was clearly pre-planned and ties in with other provocations against the Baltic nation. Addressing Putin, he said: “I can only say one thing to Putin – nobody is afraid of you here.”
Meduza: officials in Vladivostok jailed Nadezhdin’s local campaign manager, Igor Krasnov, for six days for allegedly violating Russia’s ban on “gay propaganda.”
Oleksandra Matviichuk: Today, what is called a court in Russia upheld the verdict for my friend, human rights defender Maksym Butkevych.
He said: “The self-incrimination was preconditioned I was told that if I agreed, I would be exchanged for a convicted POW of the RU Armed Forces shortly after my conviction. As other arguments, it was explained to me that if I refused, I would be subjected to various methods of physical coercion. Some were demonstrated to me.”
Here is the translation of his note: “I don't know news. I am very pleased with everyone. I love you! I'm fine, healthy, cheerful, patient. I think about each and everyone, I remember, I pray.”
Putin’s 90-year-old cousin, Yevgeny, recently died, according to the publication IvanovoNews. In 2018, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the president’s cousin as a “distant relative” with whom he doesn’t often speak. However, Yevgeny Putin’s children enjoy privileged positions in Russian society: his son, Mikhail, is a deputy chairman at Gazprom, and his daughter, Anna Tsivileva, is married to the governor of Russia’s Kemerovo region and owns one of the largest coal companies in Russia.
“Putin may carry out a significant government shake-up for the first time since 2020 after this week’s elections,” sources “close to the presidential administration” told Bloomberg. Some figures reportedly in line for new appointments include Boris Kovalchuk (the son of the financier known as Putin’s “personal banker”), Dmitry Patrushev (the son of Putin’s National Security Council secretary), and Yury Trutnev (currently the deputy prime minister in charge developing Russia’s Far East). Bloomberg says there’s an “outside chance” domestic policy czar Sergey Kiriyenko could be tapped to replace Mikhail Misushtin, but the incumbent prime minister is more likely to keep his job.
An investigation by The Moscow Times and Arctida shows that European companies have supplied more than $630 million worth of equipment to Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project since the invasion of Ukraine despite it being under Western sanctions. Novatek, whose biggest shareholders include close Putin ally Gennady Timchenko, has a 60-percent stake in the project, which will extract and produce LNG on the Gyda Peninsula in the Arctic. An Italian firm was the main equipment supplier for Arctic LNG 2 in 2023.
Vatican says Russia should take first steps toward negotiations with Ukraine. The first condition for peace in Ukraine is for Russia to cease its hostilities, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, said on March 11.
Associated Press: Austria said on Wednesday it has ordered two diplomats from Russia’s Embassy in Vienna to leave the country. An Austrian official said the expulsions were related to spying activities. (Me: I’m shocked.)
Allied Support
The European Commission has approved a plan to give Ukraine between €2 billion and €3 billion (about $2.7 billion) this year from profits derived from Russia’s frozen sovereign assets. “The E.U. could use the profits to buy weapons for Ukraine through an existing fund for which member states are currently negotiating a €5-billion top-up or to invest in the Ukrainian defense industry,” reports The Financial Times.
EU ambassadors approved an increase in military aid to Ukraine by €5 billion, Foreign Affairs Minister Kuleba and EU high representative Borrell report.
“The message is clear: we will support Ukraine with all our might to win," Borrell added.
European Commission proposes draft framework for Ukraine's EU accession talks. The proposed frameworks detail the "principles governing the accession negotiations, (the) substance of the negotiations, and (the) negotiations procedure."
In an interview with Russia’s RIA state news agency and Rossiya-1 state television, Putin signalled that he intends to boost forces along the country’s border with Finland, and said Russia is 'technically ready' for nuclear war, but does not intend to start one. He said he never considered the use of nuclear tactical weapons in Ukraine.
“This is an absolutely meaningless step (for Finland and Sweden) from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests,” he said, adding:
We didn’t have troops there (at the Finnish border), now they will be there. There were no systems of destruction there, now they will appear.
On negotiations with Ukraine, he added: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition”.
European lawmakers are stepping up calls for the return of Ukrainian children who had been forcibly moved to Russia.
“At least 20,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Russia or relocated to Belarus,” said Michaela Šojdrová, a Czech centre-right member of the European parliament.
“We urge the EU and international humanitarian organisations not only to condemn the forcible deportations and treat them as part of Russia’s genocidal policy but also to step up their efforts to bring these children back to their families and ensure that they receive appropriate care,” she said in a statement.
The Comission has presented draft negotiating frameworks for Ukraine and Moldova to the European Council, outlining guiding principles for accession negotiations. The proposal consists of 3 parts covering the principles, content and the procedure itself.
French parliament supports bilateral security agreement with Ukraine. In total, 372 lawmakers voted in favor of the deal, 99 were against, and 106 abstained or were not present. The far-left France Unbowed party voted against the agreement, while the far-right National Rally party abstained.
The Macron Videos: there are accounts (той хлопець Крістофер in this case) that have released videos of Macron speaking with Putin four days before Russia’s second attack on Ukraine, and others of Macron speaking with president Zelensky. (please see the Macron-Zelensky videos below.) In this video, Macron speaks to Putin in forceful tones about the violations of Minsk and the need to open talks. The videos have probaby been released in order to boost Macron’s status as statesman before the talks that are scheduled with Chancellor Scholz today.
In a speech to the European parliament this morning, the Finnish prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said “the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call for all of us.”
We must never again be so reliant on others for our energy and security. We must take care of our own defence. Ramping up our defence industry, improving our preparedness and strengthening our borders are critical pillars of our shared security architecture.
We have to improve European comprehensive security. This includes defence and border security, but also preparedness more broadly.
Firstly, ramping up our defence industry is priority number one. The European Union has the regulation and the resources, and we need to use those tools. Even as a member of NATO, we think that Europe can do a lot. NATO and the EU do not exclude each other – they complement each other.Russia has weaponised migration to put pressure on Finland and the entire EU. Russia is pushing third country nationals towards our eastern land border. This is not acceptable. The numbers are still relatively low, but the phenomenon is worrisome. If we can’t stop this phenomenon now, it will also become a question of numbers and a greater threat to national and European security.
Tetyana Denford: A Ukrainian defender wrote a poem on the back of their gear, by famed Ukrainian Lina Kostenko. Translation:
“love, because time doesn’t wait for you. It takes away your days and your nights. Love while the body is thirsty and young. Because in old age, you love only with your eyes.”
Statement of the Government of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, by the Chairman of the Government of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, A. Zakaev
In these difficult times, when the dark clouds of war are once again gathering over the world, the Government of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria has the greatest respect and approval for the decisive steps of the French Republic in creating an international coalition against the barbaric aggression of Russia.
Welcoming the words of French President Emmanuel Macron, we see in them echoes of the spirit of that very “Fighting France” - the spirit that helped change the course of the history of France and all mankind. We believe that the time has come for all of us, inspired by this example, to become part of the force capable of restoring peace and stability and protecting those who suffer from aggression and barbarity.
Today we stand next to our brothers and sisters in Ukraine, and next to those who, like France, decide to take bold and decisive steps in this fight. We unite in the fight against barbaric aggression, and together we will achieve the freedom and peace that every people deserves.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met yesterday with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell. Each reiterated their steadfast support for Ukraine, and discussed the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the actions we are taking to increase humanitarian aid.
They also discussed upholding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as well as the importance of transatlantic unity on shared challenges with regard to the PRC, including concerns transfers from the PRC that help rebuild Russia’s defense-industrial base. They discussed close cooperation on the Western Balkans and the EU. Lastly, they discussed shared priorities for transatlantic energy security, including in view of the upcoming U.S.-EU Energy Council.
The discharge petition to bring the bill that already passed Senate, which provides for aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, to the floor for a vote, has now collected 177 signatures. +8 (all Democrats) compared to yesterday. A total of 218 are needed.
Ukrainian justice minister Denys Maliuska said on Wednesday that he had received “quite optimistic” messages from lawmakers in the US House of Representatives and Senate about the passage of a bill that would provide aid for Ukraine.
“What we call for is to put aside any divisions or political disputes aimed at internal needs, since we see that in both camps – Republicans and Democrats – they all agree that support shall be provided,” Maliuska told reporters during a news conference at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington.
Politico: The Polish PM was in Washington overnight with President Andrzej Duda, where they put on a show of unity.
Tusk said he hoped Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Mike Johnson, who hasn’t brought the $60 billion supplemental for Ukraine aid to the House floor, would realize that inaction could cost “thousands of lives in Ukraine.” “This is not some political skirmish that only matters here in America,” Tusk said. “The absence of this positive decision of Mr. Johnson will really cost thousands of lives there: children, women. He must be aware of his personal responsibility.”
AP: House passes bill that would lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner doesn’t sell. Senate path unclear. House passes bill that would lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner doesn’t sell.
CNN: Judge dismisses some Trump Georgia election subversion charges but leaves most of the case intact
The presiding judge in the Georgia criminal case against Donald Trump and his allies has thrown out some of the charges against the former president and several of his co-defendants.
The partial dismissal by Georgia Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee leaves most of the sprawling racketeering indictment intact.
CNN: Brian Butler just told CNN that he loaded boxes that are mentioned in the indictment, which allegedly included top secret material, onto Trump's plane from Mar-a-lago to New Jersey the same day that Trump met with the the DOJ at Mar-a-Lago about the classified documents.
BBC: A Ukraine aid charity that was at threat of closing down said it had found a new home. Help Ukraine BAMK, which says it is one of the last remaining hubs in the UK for Ukraine donations, used a warehouse in Blakelands, Milton Keynes.
The owner of the building had to move out of the site, leaving the charity homeless, but a new location has been found in Stacey Bushes.
Since the war began in 2022, the charity said it had shipped about 140 tonnes in humanitarian aid to people in the country.
He recalled: "Two weeks ago we sent a lorry with 12 or 16 wheelchairs for severely disabled children which are now in Odesa.
"We've seen pictures of the children in the wheelchairs and the smiles on their faces are unbelievable, that alone is more payment than we can ever want."
The organisation is entirely run by volunteers, many with direct connections in Ukraine.
When the Ukrainian businessman who gave the group space in his warehouse had to move out of the site, there were concerns humanitarian services may have to stop.
Mr Senior said: "One of the Ukrainian volunteers who works with us... Her children go to a private school and the owner of that school is very helpful to the community.
"When she became aware of our problem she asked friends of hers and that's how we got our new premises."
Thank you!
Thank you for this fantastic round-up of important news stories, many of which aren’t in mainstream US news outlets