Mar 15: Buonasera Mag
Day 385: Donetsk Odesa Kherson Prigozhin $13.5B Peskov Serbia OligarchCash BlackSea China EU Poland LITH Lavra -31.4% SVB-A&Ps- Bechov Weiss ISW Bucha Panyi Kuleba Cepa Matviyishyn Chazan Cenusa Cepps
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia shells Donetsk Oblast, killing 1, injuring 5. Russian occupying forces shelled Avdiivka and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast on March 13 with Uragan multiple rocket launchers and artillery. Russian attack on village in Sumy Oblast kills 1, injures 4. Russian troops launched a missile strike on the village of Znob-Novhorodske in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast on March 13, according to President’s Office head Andrii Yermak.
Russian troops launched a missile attack on Odesa region using tactical aircraft, Ukraine’s operational command south said in an update earlier this afternoon. It said the Russian missiles were downed over the sea, but the debris and blast wave damaged a kindergarten on the coastline and several private houses.
Southern Command: Russia's proxies in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast preparing to leave. Moscow-installed proxies on Kherson Oblast's east bank are "taking away documentation and looted things," Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said on March 14.
"This is a sign that another 'gesture of goodwill' is being prepared," Humeniuk told Ukrainian Channel 24, referring to the propaganda term that Moscow used to justify its troops being forced from previously occupied Kyiv Oblast and other Ukrainian regions.
ISW: Russian Defense Ministry appears to deliberately expend Wagner forces in Bakhmut to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations. On March 12, Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin commented on sarcastic remarks made by Yevgeny Prigozhin in which he said he intends to run for the office of the President of Ukraine in 2024. Mukhin rhetorically asked if Prigozhin notified Russian President Vladimir Putin about his “presidential ambitions,” the Institute for the Study of War said on March 13.
A Russian Su-27 fighter jet has collided with a US military drone over the Black Sea, causing the drone to crash, according to a US air force general. In a statement, General James Hecker, who overseas the US air force in the region, said:
Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9. In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash. US and Allied aircraft will continue to operate in international airspace and we call on the Russians to conduct themselves professionally and safely.
Nato’s top military commander, Gen Christopher Cavoli, has informed allies about the incident over the Black Sea involving a Russian fighter jet and a US military drone, according to a Nato official. White House’s spokesperson, John Kirby, said it was not uncommon for there to be intercepts by Russian aircraft of US aircraft over the Black Sea, but “this one is noteworthy because of how unsafe and unprofessional it was”. John Kirby also said:
"We are going to continue to fly and operate in international airspace over international waters," he added. "The Black Sea belongs to no one nation. And we're going to continue to do what we need to do for our national security interests in that part of the world."
Zelensky: Ukraine to spend additional $13.5 billion on defense. An additional $13.5 billion will be spent on defense, including military salaries and drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 13 in his nightly video address.
Belgorod governor reports four missiles shot down. Gladkov says one woman was injured and two homes were damaged by falling debris.
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Russia's goals in Ukraine could only be achieved by military force at the moment, and that Kyiv needed to accept the "new realities" on the ground before a peaceful settlement could be reached. "We have to achieve our goals. Right now this is only possible by military means due to the current position of the Kyiv regime," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Mayor: Wagner forces attempt to recruit residents of occupied Melitopol to fight in Bakhmut. According to a statement made on national television by Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, Wagner forces began to recruit residents to participate in the battles for Bakhmut. Fedorov, who is in Ukrainian-controlled territory, said Russian troops are offering Melitopol residents 200,000 rubles ($2,650) per month to fight for Russia in Bakhmut.
At least 8 employees of Russian embassies who were expelled from the EU began working in the Russian embassy in Serbia, Radio Liberty found out. For example, among the employees there is the 2nd secretary of the Croatian embassy, Aleksey Ivanenko.
As Russian military casualties in Ukraine mount, and Western figures put them at more than 200,000 killed and wounded, inconsistencies appear in official statistics with the count of the country's death toll. Every month, Russian registry offices record about 2-3 thousand deaths, which subsequently do not fall into the statistics of Rosstat, demographer Alexei Raksha calculated. This difference occurs monthly and always in one direction - Rosstat gives less than follows from the registry office data, the demographer emphasizes.
“Hidden” mortality, which is seen by registry offices, but not by Rosstat, is close to the number of confirmed losses of the Russian army in Ukraine: the list, which, according to social media reports and official statements, is maintained by Mediazona and the BBC, is replenished by 3.5– 4 thousand people per month.
The Russian occupation authorities intend to cancel the compulsory Ukrainian language curriculum in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast beginning with the new school year, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda referring to the statement by the so-called Russian occupation authorities’ education minister of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Elena Shapurova.
The U.S. has begun an aggressive new push to inflict pain on Russia’s economy and specifically its oligarchs with the intent of thwarting the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. From the Treasury Department to the Justice Department, U.S. officials will focus on efforts to legally liquidate the property of Russian oligarchs, expand financial penalties on those who facilitate the evasion of sanctions, and close loopholes in the law that allow oligarchs to use shell companies to move through the U.S. financial system.
Official: Russia 'ready' to extend Black Sea grain deal for only 60 days. Russia is prepared to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative after deliberations with United Nations officials, but only for a period of 60 days, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said.
WSJ: China's Xi Jinping to speak to Zelensky after his Moscow visit. The first conversation between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion is expected to occur online, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the issue.
Official: EU to give first evaluation of Ukraine's EU accession progress in May. The European Commission will give the first evaluation of Ukraine's progress in fulfilling the EU's "candidate criteria" in May, by which Kyiv will finish the implementation of most of the conditions, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said on March 13.
European Council extends sanctions against Russia for 6 months. The European Council issued a press release on March 13 extending sanctions against 1,473 individuals and 205 entities who support Russia's war against Ukraine.
Lithuania’s parliament voted unanimously on Tuesday to designate Russia’s Wagner mercenary group “a terrorist organisation”, accusing it of “systematic, serious crimes of aggression” in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
Poland's Ministry of the Interior will soon reveal a series of documents regarding Russia's attempts to bribe MEPs, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in an interview for the i.pl portal. "We have information that there is also a Russian trace in the corruption of some MEPs. Our Minister of the Interior will soon reveal documents about actions of the Russian secret services to the MEPs" , accused the Prime Minister of Poland.
Moscow Patriarchate refuses to vacate premises of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. The Russian-affiliated head of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, an Orthodox monastery, said on March 13 that he and other monks of the monastery had no intention of vacating the premises of the Lavra.
Reuters: Ukraine has accused two Russian soldiers of sexually assaulting a four-year-old girl and gang raping her mother, according to Ukrainian prosecution files seen by Reuters that detail widespread allegations of abuse.
Statistics agency: Ukraine's GDP down 31.4% in 4th quarter of 2022. Ukraine's GDP fell by 31.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to a 30.8% drop in the third quarter, according to the State Statistics Service.
President Biden, British Prime Minister Sunak, and Australian Prime Minister Albanese announced the optimal pathway for Australia to acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) under the Australia, United Kingdom, and United States (AUKUS) partnership.
Reuters: Shockwaves from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank further pounded global bank stocks despite President Joe Biden's efforts to reassure markets. Emergency U.S. measures to shore up banks by giving them access to additional funding failed to dispel investor worries.
Recognizing the Remarkable: Women’s Resilience in the Face of Aggression- CEPA
By Sarah Krajewski, Krista Viksnins, Elina Beketova, Lera Burlakova, Elena Davlikanova and SaraJane Rzegocki
Women have played a vital role in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, whether on the frontlines or through bolstering global support for Ukrainians defending their country.
International Women’s Day is a time to acknowledge and highlight the contributions of women, draw attention to the difficulties they face, and advocate for equality and social equity.
Below, CEPA staff and experts honor women who are inspirational to them. These reflections aim to recognize the resilience of women who have made or are making a significant impact in their communities, in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Andriana Susak-Arekhta, Assault Trooper, Ukrainian Armed Forces
By Lera Burlakova Democracy Fellow, Center for European Policy AnalysisMy friend Andriana Susak-Arekhta is a translator, but in 2014, when Russia started the war, she volunteered to join the Ukrainian Armed Forces as an assault trooper. In 2015, she was five months pregnant, and so left the battlefield. But she never left her brothers- and sisters-in-arms. She fought for gender equality in our military and became the head of the Women’s Veteran’s Movement. Without Andriana’s efforts and advocacy, Ukrainian women still would not be assigned to combat positions. Without this, women would remain listed on army unit rosters as cooks and cleaners . . . as I once was.
In 2022 Andriana returned to the frontlines. She was seriously wounded recently, and now she is undergoing complex treatment and rehabilitation.
Guy Chazan, Sam Fleming & Alice Hancock, Germany’s ‘unreliable’ coalition hamstrings EU decisions- FT
Tensions in Germany’s governing coalition are increasingly hobbling EU decisions, undermining Berlin’s reputation in Europe and harming the bloc’s credibility in everything from green policies to aid for Ukraine.
The most startling example of troublesome German tactics came late last month when the country said it would vote against already agreed EU plans to ban new combustion car engines from 2035 unless exemptions were made for cars that could run on carbon-neutral e-fuels.
The move exposed divisions in Olaf Scholz’s government, an unwieldy coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals. It is the liberal transport minister Volker Wissing who is driving the hard line on cars, to the consternation of the Greens.
“Germany’s reputation is really diminishing in Europe — it’s viewed as unpredictable and unreliable,” said one European diplomat in Berlin. “Coalition tensions are becoming a European problem.”
Officials in Berlin say the criticism is unfair. “People in Brussels like to convey the impression that everyone apart from Germany agrees on everything — which is complete nonsense,” said one.
But MPs from Germany’s governing parties are becoming seriously worried about the country’s reputation. “It’s devastating,” said one Social Democrat MP. “We’re just giving away our leverage in Brussels because other countries are thinking: what the hell are the Germans doing now?”
Programming note…
