Mar 15: E-Stories
Kherson 150villagesHit CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Lautman Zabrisky RUVolunteerCorps UKDef Trad ISW Medvedev Kokcharov Davis Mihkelson Bondarev Kenyon Kapparov BBC Nichols Gedmin
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
They literally had RIS, Surkov, and others create opposition parties to pretend there is an option. The closest to something being somewhat real is the communist party and even they have arrangements with the Kremlin for seats.
Stories we’re following…
Mar 14: A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military said this that overnight Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 34 Shahed drones, and that 22 of them were shot down.
He also said that about 150 settlements in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions came under Russian artillery fire. Authorities in Kharkiv and Sumy regions said infrastructure had been targeted, Reuters reported.
Zarina Zabrisky from Kherson: her apartment building was hit.
The Russian-controlled management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant claimed yesterday that the Ukrainian army had shelled a critical infrastructure facility at the plant, Reuters reported. According to the Russian-controlled plant, an explosive device was dropped near a fence where diesel fuel tanks are located. (Me: there is no way in hell that the Ukrainians would shell a nuclear power plant: if they did, it would cause an accident that would destroy their own territory. These are Russian claims that should be dismissed.)
An appeal by commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis Kapustin.
"We again appeal to the residents of Kursk and Bilhorod regions! Your leadership has not taken any measures to protect or evacuate you, and the shelling of peaceful cities and villages in Ukraine continues as before! We are forced to return fire at military targets in the border regions! Evacuate immediately," he says.
"The task is to liberate Russia from Putin," Alexey Baranovsky, representative of the Freedom of Russia Legion said.
According to him, the elections started "with a bang," and fighting continues on the outskirts of the village of Tetkino. The situation is tense in Kursk and Bilhorod regions. He also noted that the ultimate goal is the "March on Moscow".
Combat Situation Update
In the early hours of Thursday, Russian soldiers attempted to cross the Dnipro to land on the western bank near the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson region but were forced to retreat after suffering losses, the Operational Command South, Ukrinform reports.
"A bunch of invaders were sent from the left bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region in a motor boat to test their fate. As part of their subversive and reconnaissance mission, they tried to approach the right bank near the Antonivskyi Bridge," the report says.
Troop Rotation: "We started the process of rotation and replacement of units and subunits that have been performing combat missions at the front line for a long time. This will stabilize the situation and have a positive impact on the moral and psychological state of our soldiers," Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported.
Poll: 70% of Ukrainians have friends or relatives with front-line experience. As many as 70% of Ukrainians have friends or family who have fought or are currently fighting at the front line since February 2022, according to a poll by the Sociological Group Rating and the Veterans Affairs Ministry published on March 13.
Behind the Lines
535 children have been killed in Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office said today, Ukrinform reported.
“Some 1,790 children have been affected in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s full-scale armed aggression. As of the morning of March 14, 2024, a total of 535 children have been killed and 1,255 sustained injuries of various degrees of severity,” the office said.
Justice minister: Ukraine willing to accept loans if necessary to secure US aid. "If this sort of discussion will delay the process of the provision of financial assistance, then let's put the discussion aside and take whatever is given," Justice Minister Denys Maliuska said.
Ministry: Ukrainian hackers disrupt transport services in Russian cities. Hackers of the IT Army of Ukraine targeted the Russian government and local portals, disrupting the fare payment system in Moscow and Kazan public transport, the Digital Transformation Ministry said on March 13.
Survey: Ukrainians spend 66% of budget on food, mandatory expenses. The survey also found that Ukrainians spend a fraction of what other residents of other countries spend on non-essential expenses.
The Russian mafia used to do this back in the 90s and any fake documents being sold now for Ukraine or other countries is directly tied to security services.
Russia is believed to have jammed the satellite signal on an aircraft used by defence minister Grant Shapps to travel from Poland back to the UK, a government source and journalists travelling with him said on Thursday, reported Reuters. According to the source and journalists, the GPS signal was interfered with for about 30 minute
Meanwhile in Russia
The fourth Lukoil senior executive has died since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the energy corporation reported the death of 53-year-old Vitaly Robertus. Lukoil spokespeople did not offer further details. Previous deaths at the company include Alexander Subbotin (whose body was discovered at his home in May 2022, allegedly after suffering a heart attack), 67-year-old former board chairman Ravil Maganov (who reportedly fell from a sixth-floor hospital window in September 2022 after suffering a heart attack), and his replacement, 66-year-old Vladimir Nekrasov (who succumbed to heart failure in October 2023). Shortly after February 2022, Lukoil's board of directors, headed by Maganov, issued an official statement calling for a quick end to the conflict, describing it as a “tragedy" and expressing sympathy to its victims.
Russia says it will not participate in Switzerland peace talks even if invited. Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, suggested in February that representatives from Russia might be invited to the scheduled talks.
Russia’s human rights commissioner says she will appeal to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights to challenge the Latvian authorities’ supposed plans to limit Russian nationals’ access to their embassy to cast ballots in this weekend’s presidential election.
Alex Kokcharov: In Russia, former PM and President and current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medevedev published Russian demands to Ukraine. See translation below: They can be summed up as liquidation of Ukrainian statehood and annexation of Ukraine by Russia.
Julia Davis: John Varoli, former foreign correspondent for the New York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters TV, assured host Roman Golovanov that America will undoubtedly lose to Russia and will disintegrate shortly thereafter. When I read some of the coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I wonder: how many John Varolis may still be employed by Western media outlets?
Austria has declared another two diplomats from the Russian embassy personae non grata for actions "incompatible with their diplomatic status” and ordered them to leave the country within a week, reports Reuters. That raises the number to 11 of Russian ‘diplomats’ who have been expelled since February 2022.
Oleksandr Scherba: An extensive report by the Austrian magazine “Der Falter” reveals a huge network of russian “special contacts” in Austria. Many related to the pro-russian ultra-right Austrian Freedom Party FPÖ that can win the elections later this year. (See the story below)
Bondarev: “Just don’t say then that Russians “must go over to the side of good””
I know that some colleagues are now trying to go to some international organizations, to the UN. But it has always been difficult, and now it is even more difficult. Russians are not particularly welcome anywhere.
Is there a problem with the passport?
- Including. But this is understandable. Just don’t then say, as all sorts of European politicians and experts do, that Russians “must go over to the side of good.” Recently I saw a tweet from former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt that Russian diplomats must finally decide which side they are on.
I wrote to him: “Carl Bildt, how do you even imagine this? You just blurted out big words, but you don't think about how it will happen? Okay, some Russian diplomats will follow your advice and quit – will you find them a job? Can you help? Shelter? And if a person makes some kind of anti-war statement and he is imprisoned, will you rescue him? Of course not! You don't care about him. You just say: “Well done, hero. And then roll as you wish."
And what did he answer you?
- He didn’t answer anything, of course. But it’s not that I was counting on an answer; I was just unpleasantly surprised by this call, to put it mildly. How many people do we have who are running away from the war, from Putin, and no one is helping them halfway?!
Here, together with a number of municipal deputies, we tried to make requests to the European authorities to make it easier for Russians to obtain visas, but they don’t even agree to that. They are all good at big words, but when it comes down to it, it turns out that “everything is complicated.”
I came to the conclusion that Western diplomacy is not much different from Russian. She's just as irresponsible. It’s just that ours work in one direction, these ones work in the other ; We also have a war, but by and large neither one nor the other thinks about the consequences of their statements. [continue]
Me: I’m posting this interview in Holod with former Russian diplomat, Boris Bondarev, for a reason. He complains that the West is not helping him or his colleagues. I find this kind of accusation quite frequent: the West isn’t doing enough for Russians. I also read the same in history books about the Cold War period.
Russia attacks a country and it’s up to the ‘West’ to clean everything up. We rightfully provide aid to the victims of Russian aggression, but I need to draw the line on ‘aiding’ Russians who had all the time in the world to get out while they could. In this specific case, why didn’t Bondarev leave the diplomatic service after 2014 when Russia attacked Ukraine in Donbas? He had time to set up a new life abroad when the West was appeasing Putin and Russia but he chose to stay in Switzerland nontheless.
It’s always the fault of the West, and we must pay: this is their message. Always the victim, and never taking responsiblity for what they do, or could do to stop the aggression.
Allied Support
House Speaker Mike Johnson informed Republican senators that the House plans to send legislation to aid Ukraine, but it will differ significantly from the Senate's $95 billion foreign aid package that was adopted with a bipartisan majority.
Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg answered questions from journalists after presenting the annual Nato report. He says Ukrainians are not running out of courage but they are running out of ammunition. Stoltenberg also said that any attempt to organise Russian elections in occupied regions of Ukraine would be completely illegal.
Bloomberg: European Investment Bank in talks on investing in EU defense sector. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is in talks to invest in defense companies amid heightened urgency to scale up Europe's defense industry, Bloomberg reported on March 13.
Officials at the European Commission are poised to put forward what they believe is a legally robust proposal to be considered by member states, possibly before a meeting of prime ministers in Brussels next Thursday.
About $300bn belonging to the Russian central bank has been frozen in the west, largely in foreign currency, gold and government bonds. About 70% of these are held in the Belgian central securities depository Euroclear, which is holding the equivalent of €190bn.
Deposits held in Europe are likely to generate between €15bn and €20bn in after-tax profits between now and the end of 2027, depending on the evolution of global interest rates, a senior EU official said.
This year they are expected to generate between €2bn and €3bn in profits, depending on potential interest rate changes – money that could then go straight to Ukraine.
Malta, Luxembourg and Hungary expressed reservations about the plan of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to use the profits obtained from frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine.
Media: EU to propose restrictions on Russian, Belarusian grain imports. European Commission will present a proposal next week on restricting Russian and Belarusian agricultural imports, Polish news outlet RMF24 reported on March 13, citing an anonymous EU diplomat.
AP: Artificial intelligence is supercharging the threat of election disinformation worldwide, making it easy for anyone with a smartphone and a devious imagination to create fake – but convincing – content aimed at fooling voters.
It marks a quantum leap from a few years ago, when creating phony photos, videos or audio clips required teams of people with time, technical skill and money. Now, using free and low-cost generative artificial intelligence services from companies like Google and OpenAI, anyone can create high-quality “deepfakes” with just a simple text prompt.
Florian Klenk, Vladimir Putin's willing helpers in Austria—Falter.at
A secret dossier traces how Russia infiltrates parties (especially the FPÖ) - and names the Kremlin's agents and helpers in Vienna
We are at a loss because of the murder of Alexei Navalny.” With these words, a six-page letter was sent to the Falter . The authors - insiders known to Falter by name who only want to be referred to as "sources" for security reasons - would like to share with the public "some interesting details" in light of the murder of the Russian opposition politician. About “Russia activities” in Austria “including the FPÖ and Kickl,” as it says in a letter. Postscript: “Perhaps the information could help you.”
The letter is entitled “Fighters on the Invisible Front” and comes from experts on the Russian diplomatic scene in Vienna. The butterfly knows the whistleblower, but protects their identity. Austrian constitutional protection officers, diplomats and Russia experts who were confronted by Falter with the document rated the information as “convincing in terms of content”. [continue]
BBC: A new Russian school textbook has been produced that distorts the history of the war against Ukraine and encourages students to join the army.
It has been designed for a new subject entitled "Fundamentals of Security and Defence of the Motherland".
The lesson is compulsory for high school students aged 15 to 18 in Russia and occupied territories in Ukraine.
It will be taught once a week from September, replacing a lesson known as "Fundamentals of Safe Living".
Former soldiers are expected to teach the new subject and Russians with a degree in pedagogy - the method and practice of teaching - who return from the war are already being offered free retraining courses to become teachers.
The first textbook for the new subject, called The Russian Army in Defence of the Fatherland, has been produced by leading Russian education publisher Enlightenment. Among its authors are two senior figures who work for the defence ministry and Kremlin newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta.
Its 368 pages are filled with stories describing the "heroic achievements of Russian soldiers" from the 13th Century to the present day.
"Dear colleagues, we all understand the importance of presenting information to our students from the perspective of [Russia]," publishing representative Olga Plechova told an online introductory session for teachers in January, which the BBC watched.
"We cannot convey alternative viewpoints to the students. So this textbook will assist you in addressing children's questions and providing accurate coverage of certain events." [continue]
Tom Nichols: Donald Trump Is a National-Security Risk.
According to reports last week, the U.S. intelligence community is preparing to give Donald Trump classified intelligence briefings, a courtesy every White House extends to major-party candidates to ensure an effective transition. An excellent tradition—but not one that should be observed this year.
The decision rests, as always, with the sitting president, and Joe Biden is likely to continue this practice so that he will not be accused of “politicizing” access to intelligence. Such accusations need not be taken seriously; they would only be more meaningless noise from a GOP that has already stumbled in a clumsy attempt to impeach Biden after leveling charges of corruption at both him and his son. And although denying Trump access to classified briefs would produce squawks and yowls from Republicans, it would also serve as a reminder that Trump cannot be trusted with classified information.
The risks of denying Trump these early briefings are negligible. As we learned from his presidency, Trump is fundamentally unbriefable: He doesn’t listen, and he doesn’t understand complicated national-security matters anyway. The problem with giving Trump these briefings, however, isn’t that he’s ignorant. He’s also dangerous, as his record shows.
Cold War Spies and Authoritarian Lies—Jeffrey Gedmin
All nations spy just as all governments lie. Authoritarian regimes flourish in spying and lying. The absence of checks and balances at home provides one natural advantage. Another: Free societies with their accessibility—and our never-ending goodwill and naïveté—are a field day for adversaries.
East Germany ran several thousand agents and influencers across West Germany during the Cold War. There were some 1,500 West Germans working for the Stasi when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989. For years, the Stasi and KGB had supported left-wing terrorism to destabilize West Germany.
In The Art of War Sun Tzu said know yourself and your enemy. We’re not very good at either. The masters of spying and lying excel at both.
Markus Wolf, the legendary spymaster, was already central to the world of East German foreign intelligence when the Guillaumes were dispatched in the mid-1950s. Wolf grew up in the Weimar Republic. He came from a communist family that had fled Nazi Germany and received political asylum in the Soviet Union. In the 1930s, he finished secondary education in Moscow, joined the Soviet Young Pioneers, and marched across Red Square for Joseph Stalin.
At the age of twenty, Mischa, as Wolf was called, learned how to use machine guns, rifles, pistols, explosives, and hand grenades. A special school he attended included training in disinformation and techniques for message passing and clandestine meetings.
After World War II, Wolf was sent to East Berlin, first to work as a propaganda journalist and then to help set up East Germany’s security services. The Stasi was the KGB’s star pupil. Germany was a key Soviet investment. World revolution, Lenin had contended, depended on the Germans.
Wolf was creative. His “Romeo” program sent agents into the West to date and develop long-term relationships with staff in politics and industry. Preparation was remarkable. It might take two years or longer to prepare a profile of the target. Romeo agents studied interests, preferences, previous relationships—every opportunity and vulnerability—long before an orchestrated chance encounter would take place at a bus stop, a cafe, a park bench. In his memoir, Wolf boasted he had perfected the science of seduction for espionage. [continue]
A friend has passed…
Our friend Franz passed away yesterday. He was a pillar of strength and kindness with the crew at the LiberiOltre channel. He took care of the morning slot, providing analysis of the top news stories, and much more. Such a lovely, intelligent, balanced man. He will be sorely sorely missed.
How is the interview with John Varoly not being covered in US mainstream media? I've never heard of the guy, but if he used to write for The NY Times he obviously has some previous credibility (though these days who knows!)?
I'm sorry for the loss of your colleague and friend. :(