Mar 16: Buonasera Mag
Day 386: UASitRep Kherson SU27 $80B patriotbonds RUrecruitment SecurityBond2023 NietHague 2Beuro NETH F16 SBU Fridman Guo PolandSpies-A&P-BELborder UKDef Fattorini Scollick Panyi OCCRP Weiss Mukhina
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces attack 8 Ukrainian regions over past 24 hours. On the morning of March 14, Russian troops launched a missile attack on Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, killing one person and wounding at least three, according to the oblast governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. Nearly 30 buildings were damaged by Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk.
Ukraine's military says it downed Russian Su-24 aircraft near Bakhmut. Soldiers of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian Su-24 supersonic tactical bomber near Donetsk Oblast's Bakhmut, the brigade's spokeswoman Iryna Rybakova told Hromadske on March 15.
Danilov refutes claims that Ukraine’s counteroffensive may be at risk due to casualties. National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that information published by the Washington Post about the lack of skilled military personnel due to losses at the front and doubts of anonymous Ukraine’s officials regarding “Kyiv’s readiness for the long-awaited spring offensive” is not true.
Southern Command: Russia's proxies in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast preparing to leave. Moscow-installed proxies on the east bank of Kherson Oblast prepare to leave the Russian-occupied territories, "taking away documentation and looted things," Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk told Ukrainian Channel 24.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia's ammunition shortage behind lack of ‘significant offensives' in Ukraine. Russian artillery ammunition deficit, likely aggravating over the recent weeks, has led to "extremely" tight ammunition restrictions in many areas of Ukraine's front line, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on March 14.
Russia built $80 billion offshore cash pile in year of sanctions from its commodity exports, creating a potential new flashpoint as the US and its allies look to tighten their sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Source: Bloomberg
Russia’s State Duma, has backed an amendment that would punish those found guilty of discrediting “volunteer” groups fighting in Ukraine, in a move that would include fighters working for the private mercenary Wagner group. Under the current legislation, “discrediting” the Russian army can be punished by up to five years in prison, while spreading knowingly false information about it can attract a 15-year jail sentence.
Russian Finance Ministry officials deny reports that they recommended the launch of “patriotic bonds” to help plug Russia’s federal budget deficit. There have been discussions but nothing detailed or proposed, says the ministry.
Insider: The military commissariat of the Voronezh region and the administration of municipalities began handing out subpoenas to the residents of the region. “We would like to emphasize that the sole purpose of these events is exclusively to update military registration data in the Voronezh military registration and enlistment offices. Summons will be handed out mainly at the place of residence of citizens and their work, ”the military commissariat said in a statement.
A mathematics and IT lecturer at the Pyatigorsk State University in Russia's southwestern region of Stavropol Krai has been fired after students reported to police that she criticized Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine during one of her classes.
The Chinese defence ministry had announced that China, Iran and Russia would conduct joint maritime drills in the Gulf of Oman starting today. The “Security Bond-2023” exercises will also involve other countries, the ministry said, without giving details. The White House was not concerned by the joint training exercise, spokesperson John Kirby said.
Moscow has said it does not recognise the jurisdiction of the international criminal court in The Hague, after reports that the court is expected to seek its first arrest warrants against Russian individuals over the war in Ukraine.
The head of the council on international affairs will be removed due to discontent in the Foreign Ministry. Kortunov, who has served as RIAC CEO since the organization was founded, will not retain his post. But the president of the organization, ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Igor Ivanov will be re-elected.
Reuters reports Ágnes Vadai, of the leftist Democratic Coalition, said in a Facebook post she had received a letter from deputy prime minister Zsolt Semjén informing her that the ruling party Fidesz and the Christian Democrats want to postpone the session which would have started on Monday.
EU Council increases ceiling for Ukraine military aid fund by 2 billion euros. “The European Peace Fund has become an integral part of the EU's support for strengthening peace and security around the world," said Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Politico EU: There’s a new rift emerging between EU Commission President von der Leyen and EU Council President Michel: how to treat China. The latest episode of the presidential power war comes just after von der Leyen’s visit to Washington, on which the Commission will brief EU ambassadors Wednesday.
“There is a huge risk of conflict here between the United States and China,” said one senior Council official speaking on condition of anonymity, referring to growing fears that Beijing could attack Taiwan. “Yes, we are a partner of the United States, but we are not a vassal state. We believe that we must not completely decouple from China.”
CNN: The Netherlands will send two minesweepers to Ukraine, along with drone detection radar systems and so-called M3 ferrying and bridge building systems, according to Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren. In a statement Tuesday, the Dutch Defense Ministry outlined its plans to work with Belgium and possibly other allied countries to train Ukrainian forces in the use of the minesweepers.
Eight senators from Democratic & Republican party have reportedly written to US Def Secretary Austin, asking for info on what it would take to send F-16 jets to Ukraine, claiming the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is “now at a critical juncture"
Ukrainian soldiers have nearly completed their training on Leopard 2 battle tanks in Munster, Germany, according to a spokesperson for the special training command of its armed forces, the Bundeswehr. The spokesperson told CNN that it would soon be feasible for Germany to deploy the Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
The Danish government and a broad majority of parties in Denmark’s parliament have agreed to establish a fund of 7bn Danish crowns (£822m / $1bn) for civil, military and business aid to Ukraine, Reuters reports the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
Cabinet of Ministers approves dismissals of Luhansk, Odesa, Khmelnytsky oblast governors. The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the dismissal of Serhiy Haidai, Maksym Marchenko, and Serhiy Hamaliy from their positions as governors of Luhansk, Odesa, and Khmelnytsky oblasts, respectively, according to official government representative in parliament Taras Melnychuk.
SBU detains Russian suspect plotting to assassinate Ukrainian officials, activists. An individual has been found guilty for plotting the assassinations of Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and a popular Ukrainian activist, Ukraine's Security Service reported.
Poland's security services take down a large network of Russian spies operating around Rzeszów Jasionka Airport, the largest NATO air delivery hub for Ukraine. The group was supposed to conduct preparations for sabotage activities in our country, informs RMF FM. Six people have been arrested in this case. In addition, a security alert was introduced in connection with the activities of the network on railway routes and in the national critical infrastructure.
The Financial Times reported again on Mikhail Fridman’s efforts to get Western sanctions lifted by recruiting “character references” from anti-Kremlin oppositionists. In separate posts on social media, Navalny associate Vladimir Ashurkov and jailed opposition politician Ilya Yashin defended their support for Fridman by arguing that oligarchs need exit ramps to “split the elite” in Russia — the same rationale that Leonid Volkov offered last week when announcing a pause in his chairmanship of the Anti-Corruption Foundation.
The U.S. Department of Justice: Indictment charging HO WAN KWOK, a/k/a “Miles Guo,” a/k/a “Miles Kwok,” a/k/a “Guo Wengui,” a/k/a “Brother Seven,” a/k/a “The Principal,” and KIN MING JE, a/k/a “William Je,” with various wire fraud, securities fraud, bank fraud, and money laundering charges. JE, who is KWOK’s financier, is also charged with obstruction of justice.
The charges in the Indictment arise from an alleged sprawling and complex scheme by the defendants, and others, to solicit investments in various entities and programs through false statements and representations to hundreds of thousands of KWOK’s online followers. As alleged, KWOK and JE misappropriated hundreds of millions of dollars in fraudulently obtained funds during the course of their conspiracy.
Reuters: Volkswagen plans to invest $192.76 billion over the next five years in areas including battery production and its North American operations, it said, with spending on combustion engines to fall from 2025. It is working toward a target of 50% electric vehicle sales globally by 2030.
The New York state supreme court has approved the massive $2.7 billion Smartmatic defamation lawsuit against Rupert Murdoch and Fox News to proceed. Fox News is already facing a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit from Dominion, which has also named Maria Bartiromo, Lou Dobbs, and Rudy Giuliani. Smartmatic's incredible opening sentences: "The Earth is round. Two plus two equals four. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the 2020 election."
Gerrymandering: North Carolina Republicans urged the state's high court to reverse course and permit lawmakers to draw politically advantageous legislative districts, an outcome that would boost the party's chances of holding onto its tenuous majority in the House of Representatives next year.- Reuters
Michael Weiss & Holger Roonemaa, Exclusive: Russia’s secret document for destabilizing Moldova- Yahoo News
Yahoo News has obtained an internal strategy document from Putin’s Presidential Administration that reveals Moscow’s plans for Moldova, the small country vulnerably sandwiched between war-torn Ukraine and a member of NATO and the European Union, Romania.
The Moldova plan, again in parallel with the one for Belarus, is broken up into three different chapter headings: the political, military and defense sectors; the humanitarian sector; and trade and economy sectors. These headings stipulate specific milestones the authors would like to achieve in the short term (by 2022), medium term (by 2025) and long term (by 2030). That final target year, the document says, should see the “creation of stable pro-Russian groups of influence in the Moldovan political and economic elites.”
“The Moldovan leadership has taken a clearly pro-Western course,” a Western intelligence official with firsthand knowledge of the strategy document told Yahoo News. “Thus, the Kremlin’s strategic goals are becoming more difficult, not easier, to achieve over time. They’ve steadily increased the pressure and are using more aggressive tactics to realize these goals.”
Olena Mukhina, How schoolchildren in Russian-occupied Ukraine are taught to hate their homeland- EuroMaidan Press
On 28 August, Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russian authorities in Luhansk Oblast issued an instruction to teachers. It required that the occupied territory’s new academic year begin with a history lesson.
The lesson plan document included Russian propaganda narratives that attacked Ukrainian national heroes that were crucial for Ukraine’s self-determination, claimed that the Ukrainian language “doesn’t exist,” and that the war in Ukraine is actually the West seeking to undermine the stability of Russia.
In addition, to increase the impact, the Russian authorities introduced so-called “political minutes,” a form of propaganda immortalized in George Orwell’s “1984” as “two minutes of hate” and widely used in the USSR to slam the Soviet Union’s capitalist enemies.
During these “minutes,” teachers in Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, searched for Ukrainian activists among students’ friends. They asked tricky questions and sifted through the contacts in children’s phones, reported Head of Military Administration Victoria Halitsyna.
