Mar 17: E-Stories

Sumy Odesa Samara CombatSit BehindLines ShamElex InRussia Allies Macron Tusk Trump A&P Macron Halushka UKDef ISW CDS NoelReport Planet Dermenzhi Avdeeva Zakarhova Medvedev Umarov Bayer Alander Katerji

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

On 15 Mar 2024, Russia attacked Odesa with 6 bombs, 2 kamikaze drones, and 5 S-300 missiles, killing 21 people, and injured 75 to date, including 7 emergency workers. It was a double tap strike: the first brought the rescue workers rushing to aid the injured, the second was to eliminate the rescue workers and inflict further death.

This Russian tactic was used in Mariupol before it fell under Russian occupation. The Russians hit a maternity hospital, and as pregnant mothers and newborn babies in their mothers’ arms, were trying to escape the burning hospital, the Russians fired another missile. Humanitarian corridors and ambulances with their medical staff have also been targeted in this war: Ukraine may have slipped to an occasional blurb in the legacy media, but the Russians are still using these evil tactics on a daily basis.

They employ terrorist tactics, which were honed in Syria, and then perfected in other attacks they have excecuted since 2016. The Russian leadership and the state apparatus should be deemed a terrorist state. The US and the UK have deemed it a state sponsor of terrorism, but it’s a cop out, and I’d love to know their thinking in this regard. Why hasn’t Russia been deemed a terrorist state?

In the meantime, Ukrainians are dying. The current generation of young Ukrainian men and women at the front can no longer write books, recite poetry, fix cars, focus on innovation, go to school or university, and so many other things that are necessary for Ukrainian society to thrive. The repercussions of Russian aggressive are vast. They’ve decided to steal and annihilate these lives, these livelihoods and a nation.

Stories we’re following…

Russian missile attack sets fire to medical facility in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia launched a missile attack against the town of Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast, starting a fire at a medical aid station and an unfinished dormitory, the State Emergency Service reported on March 15.

Evacuation of civilians continues in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian authorities continue evacuations of communities in the northeastern Sumy Oblast close to the Russian border after Moscow intensified its attacks against the region, local officials said on March 15.

Yellow Ribbons: The flag of fierceness and obstinancy. Crimea has been occupied for 10 years and was the first to resist.

Zelensky: Ukraine to strike Russia's 'weakest spots' with drones. Ukraine had identified Russia's "weakest spots" for future drone attacks, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 15 after meetings with top military and security officials.

Ukrainian drones struck three Rosneft oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region, leaving one facility on fire on Saturday, the region’s governor said. The Volga river region’s Syzran refinery was on fire, Dmitry Azarov said on Telegram. His comments also confirmed an attack on the Novokubyshev refinery. Workers at both plants had been evacuated and there were no casualties, Azarov claimed. Unverified footage posted online showed what appeared to be a major fire at the Syzran refinery, with emergency services working at the scene.The Samara region is closer to Kazakhstan than to Ukraine.

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Combat Situation Update

ISW: Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in summer 2024.

Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly.

Ukraine has already had to make difficult decisions regarding the placement of its limited air defense systems in rear and frontline areas, and Russian forces have recently made efforts to strain Ukrainian air defenses both in rear population areas and along the frontline.

The Russian Volunteer Corps made a statement about the corps' elimination, which was claimed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

"All statements by the Defense Ministry about the destruction of our corps in its entirety are just another lie. The limited military operation in Bilhorod and Kursk regions continues and here is the confirmation - a new batch of prisoners from among the RF Armed Forces. And once again we invite Governor Gladkov to a meeting to hand over the prisoners for exchange," they say.

Explosions have been heard all day in Bilgorod

Joint appeal of the Russian Volunteer Corps, the Russian Freedom Legion and the Siberian Battalion to Putin

Vladimir Putin, the whole world has been watching for several days now as the Russian city of Belgorod, the Belgorod and Kursk regions have turned into an active war zone. At the same time, your administration, despite our repeated appeals, is preventing the evacuation of the civilian population. In this regard, solely because of your ambitions, peaceful people continue to suffer and die. We call on you to stop this circus, think about the fate of innocent Russians and allow the evacuation of civilians from the war zone. Your elections have long since turned into a complete farce. Stop driving ordinary people to polling stations under bombs and artillery shells to participate in your spectacle! Not even forced voting is possible when air raid alarms are sounding!

You have long ago lost your legitimacy, and in the current circumstances even the semblance of an electoral process has disappeared. It is obvious to everyone that Russia needs immediate and fundamental change. Russia has long overdue the need for a profound transformation of the relationship between the authorities and the people, a frank conversation about new and fair social rules. If you are ready to discuss the future of our country without dictatorship and authoritarianism - we, for our part, are ready for such a conversation. If you still have courage and responsibility - get in touch with us in a way that is convenient for you.

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Behind the Lines

SBU has repelled almost 10,000 cyberattacks since 2022. Specialists of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) have repelled almost 10,000 cyberattacks since the outbreak of the full-scale war, and more attacks are taking place every day, SBU cyber chief Illia Vytiuk said on air on March 15.

Ukrainian intelligence 'hacking Russian online voting systems.' A source in the military intelligence agency confirmed to the Kyiv Independent it was currently making attempts to disrupt the vote, adding: "There are no elections or democracy there anyway."

Illegal sham ballots in Mariupol: this Ukrainian citizen crossed out all the options and ‘Dickhead’ is next to Putin’s name along with Slava Ukraini.

Maria Avdeeva: Did they kill thousands for this voting spectacle in Avdiivka? Absolutely sickening.

Over 50 countries condemn Russia’s illegal election in occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukraine, 56 more countries, and the European Union condemned the illegally organized voting in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine as part of Russia’s presidential election, Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Sergiy Kyslytsya said on March 15.

RFE/RL: Belarus sentences Ukrainian to 9 years in prison for alleged 'espionage.' The regional court in Belarus' Homyel sentenced Ukrainian citizen Nataliia Zakharenko to nine years in prison on espionage charges, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on March 15, citing its sources and Zakharenko's relatives.

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Meanwhile in Russia

Putin has issued a decree banning former state officials from freely leaving Russia. Now it is up to them to coordinate trips abroad with the relevant commission. However, the head of state reserves the right to interfere in the commission's decisions.

Russian relocants and residents of the CIS began buying fake Ukrainian passports and other documents on the black market.

As Fontanka reports , a huge number of offers have appeared on the Internet for the purchase of a passport of a citizen of Ukraine, international passport, birth certificate and other documents of this country. Prices for documents vary from several thousand rubles to $10 thousand. Sellers promise a biometric Ukrainian passport and “absolutely clean” internal documents with all the necessary marks.

“The passport is made from original forms. We enter the data into the state register through connections, you receive a TIN and a birth certificate, which is also entered in the registry office register. The series and passport number are printed using a perforation printer. The pages will have all the necessary stamps. As a result, you receive a genuine document,” the publication quotes one of the advertisements for the purchase of the document.

Russia recruits more foreign mercenaries to fight in war, Ukraine says. Russia increasingly involves foreign mercenaries from countries with a "difficult economic situation" in the all-out war in Ukraine, Petro Yatsenko, a spokesperson of Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, said on March 15 during the press conference in Kyiv.

Microsoft will close access to its cloud products to customers from Russia from March 20, 2024. Companies that use these products received a letter about this from Microsoft, a source who received such a letter told RBC. Microsoft cited EU sanctions as the reason for the new restrictions, which made it impossible to supply “certain management or design software (including cloud solutions) to organizations registered in Russia.”

In a masterclass of gaslighting, Zakharova says it's eerie how obsessed the U.S. is with Russian elections. I think if you were to ask a normal American in the mid-West or anywhere else about the sham voting currently underway in the Russian Federation, very few would even know it’s even happening.

The opposite is true, of course: Russian interference in elections has been a mainstay of their political warfare arsenal since 1924, and they are particularly interested in American society, and its politics. Their favourite supporter, Trump, has already soiled the halls of the White House, and is certainly being sustained now in his re-election campaign.

Her absurd comments are meant for a domestic audience to bolster the perception of themselves as victims of American aggression while simultaneously brandishing Russia’s superiority.

Medvedev—poster child for Russia’s insane designs: Since Russia’s second invasion, Dmitry Medvedev has come out of the closet.

Most Westerners believed in 2012 that he was the ‘liberal’ one, who had managed to charm Western leaders with his faux acquiescence towards Obama’s reset policy. He is now the Kremlin’s willful clown, pointing to absurd maps that redraw international borders, proferring ‘negotiation deals’ that annihilate Ukrainian sovereignty, if not the population itself, and now, threatening leaders across Europe, and NATO members.

I literally gasped when I saw this post for its blatant message: Latvia and its leader must die. That was the objective, and to get online users to repost and amplify his vile message. I’m posting it here because he should be brought to the Hague, if that is at all possible, for inciting genocide through state-sanctioned propaganda.

There have been 11 attempts to set fire to polling stations in Russia, along with 19 cases of ballot boxes being spoiled with greenery and paint, Nexta reports. Russia is proposing eight-year prison sentences for those involved.

Sarah Rainsford: A woman who threw a Molotov cocktail at a polling station entrance in St Petersburg has been remanded in custody for ‘disrupting’ the election The charge sheet claims she was instructed by phone & not acting alone…. She could face several years in prison.

RFE/RL: Hungary again criticizes Ukraine's national minority policies in letter to EU. Hungary has sent a document to the EU member states criticizing Ukraine's policies on national minorities, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on March 15, citing the Hungarian statement.

Me: Viktor Orban and his closest advisors are clearly working with Trump, and stoking Hungarian revanchism in Europe vis-a-vis the Hungarian minority living in Ukrainian territory.

Orban has allocated funds to Hungarian religious, and political groups via associations in the Carpathians along the Hungarian and Ukrainian border. Narratives are now emerging on social media calling for the return of Ukrainian territory to Hungary in the event of a Russian victory over the defending Ukrainian forces. Should Trump win the election in November 2024, would be back Hungarian demands for re-drawing the map in Central Europe? Trump’s ties to Orban and Putin would seem to point to his support for both regimes, and a nod to their designs. Trump has also been clear about his position regarding Ukraine: stop all military aid for Ukraine’s defence.

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Allied Support

EU to transfer 4.5 billion euros to Ukraine. Ukraine will receive 4.5 billion euros ($4.9 billion) from the European Union through its four-year Ukraine Facility program next week, Johannes Hahn, European Commissioner for Budget and Administration, announced on March 15.

The EU is progressively putting more pressure on importers of Russian liquefied natural gas to cut purchases this year, Energy Commissioner Simson said. It is part of Europe’s push to shift supplies and undermine the financing of Putin’s war machine.

Media: Greece plans to purchase ammunition for Ukraine through Czechia. Athens told EU officials that it could supply Ukraine with extensive ammunition stocks through Czechia this year, including 90,000 90 mm projectiles, 180 70 mm anti-tank projectiles, 2,000 127 mm Zuni rockets, and 4 million bullets, Kathimerini said.

Minister: Greece joins international coalition for demining in Ukraine. Greece has recently joined the Lithuania-led coalition to assist Ukraine with demining efforts, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias said on March 15.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland does not rule out that the country's troops will appear in Ukraine in the future. "Now this is not the case but this option cannot be ruled out, as we never know how serious the situation will become," she said.

G7 leaders call on Iran not to supply Russia with missiles. G7 leaders called on third parties to stop providing Russia with material support, recalling Iran in their joint statement published on March 15.

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Macron’s interview

Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, exhorted his colleaugues yesterday to use fewer words and jump to action. While I support his comment full-heartedly, words can serve to bolster support at a time when negative narratives about Ukraine’s survival, and the American cold shoulder, are so pervasive in the news and on social media platforms.

It appears that Europe has finally begun to realise how high the stakes are in Ukraine. Macron and other European leaders may be privy to information spurning them on to build up defences, and especially those in Ukraine.

The effort is moving on two binaries to shore up national defence and Ukraine’s armed forces: the Czech initiative to secure ammunition from (what I believe) extra-EU arms manufactures, and a European initiative, headed by Thierry Breton, and funded by the European Union directly. He visited thirty European arms manufactures in seven member states to identify bottlenecks and resolve these issues so that they may increase production output at this crucial time. Europe has been painfully slow at procurement, but as the saying goes: better late than ever. We’re all relieved that Europe may be taking on a much more active role in aiding Ukraine, especially since the U.S. political chaos in the House has put Ukrainian sovereignty at serious risk.

French domestic politics is not my area of expertise, so I’ll leave that analysis for our French colleagues. That being said, Macron’s statements and explanations on Thursday night were certainly applauded by those who have been drowned out by the deafening screech of Russian voices calling for the surrender of Ukraine, dominating the media landscape over the entire winter.

What I appreciated most was Macron’s unwillingness to draw ‘red lines’ thereby keeping the Russians guessing as to what France, or other nations, would be willing to do, or not, when necessary, and openly stating that security in Ukraine affects Europe directly. Up to now, our ‘red lines’ have been signalling to the Russians what they are allowed to do. To be sure, the Russians were listening closely on Thursday night, especially because France boasts the deterrent power of nuclear weapons.

Europeans in the Union and in Ukraine were also paying attention: Finally someone is speaking up. Besides the sporadic comment in reaction to a Russian war crime, the Biden administration has been inexplicably silent since October 2023. Chancellor Scholz has been bleating his ‘nein’ in response to repeated calls to send Germany’s Taurus missiles to Ukraine from the ranks of the CDU and Green Party at home as well as security and defence analysts abroad. To be fair, Germany has stepped in to replenish Ukraine’s needs in armaments and kit since the American pause in October 2023 has resulted in dwindling stocks. However, one thing has always been missing in Scholz’s public appearances and press conferences: the feeling of sound, decisive leadership. He seems so fearful to stand up to Russia, and use the full force of German economic strength and industry to keep Russia in its place.

In this war, leadership has been one of the most incisive weapons against Russian aggression, and had been successul in warding off Russian victory until now. President Zelensky has been unwavering in being the voice of Ukrainians and their fight, solliciting worldwide support for Ukrainian defence and survival, but that won’t be enough to liberate all Ukrainian territory. Allied leaders in Europe are now called to raise awareness within their publics, especially in Southern Europe, as to the consequences were Ukraine to fall, and Russia to rule over the vast territory that has served to protect Europe from Russian aggression.

That’s why Macron’s statements shouldn’t be dismissed as mere grandstanding or empty bluster: they were just as much for Europeans living in the Union, untouched by the violence of bombs and missiles, as a warning to the Kremlin. Let’s all hope that these words will be backed by incisive action.

Macron’s interview with English dubbing

Macron’s statements

Politico: French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a blunt assessment of the situation in Ukraine during a live television address late Thursday.

“All options are possible. In order to have peace in Ukraine, we cannot be weak,” he said, adding: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero.”

“If Russia were to win, life for the French would change,” Macron said. “We would no longer have security in Europe. Who can seriously believe that Putin, who has respected no limits, would stop there?”

President Macron continued answering some questions from X and Instagram, and providing further explanation for some of his comments: Instagram after the interview:

Dear Antoine, thank you for your question.

Very clearly, we are not at war with Russia.

France is a force for peace which is not and will never be in escalation. What I said is that vis-à-vis our allies and our European partners, vis-à-vis History too, we have a responsibility, that of being a strong and ready France to adapt to the choices that Russia would make.

This is why it is necessary not to immediately set limits for ourselves in the face of an enemy who does not set any limits.

Wanting peace does not mean choosing defeat or letting Ukraine down. I don't want that.

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Scott Lucas on GBNews: the latest developments in the Trump cases in Georgia and elsewhere, and how these cases impact his campaign.

This man cries everyday.

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The Russian inside the Italian Parliament

A word about Irina Osipova, who works for the Italian Senate. Yes, a Russian and not just any Russian: her father, Oleg Osipova, is the director of Rossotrudnichestvo, “an influential agency within the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sanctioned by the European Union as an instrument of influence abroad. He has also directed the Russian Centre for Science and Culture in Rome.”

Decode39 provides some background on Osipova:

Ms Osipova was born in Moscow and has been living in Italy for almost 20 years. In 2011 (she was 23), she founded the RIM – Young Italo-Russians Association, which supported criticism against European sanctions on Russia. In 2014, she began collaborating with the Lombardy-Russia Association founded by Gianluca Savoini, who facilitated exchanges between the League’s Matteo Salvini and the Kremlin. Then she ran for the Rome Municipality in 2016 with Brothers of Italy, headed by current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, which she apparently still supports despite its firmly pro-Atlanticist positioning.

During those years, she forged (heavily documented) ties with far-right figures, including Yan Petrovsky and Vladimir Verbitchii, both members of the Rusich – a Nazi-inspired military formation associated with the Wagner Group and the Kremlin – and the Italian foreign fighter Andrea Palmeri [see post below], who fought in the Donbas in 2014 alongside Russia’s paramilitary forces.

What’s worse is that her husband, Luca Pedetti, “alleges a past job as a consultant for aerospace company Finmeccanica (now Leonardo), where he “provided integrated logistical support” for systems that were then “supplied to the Italian Armed Forces.”” He is currently an executive who founded a startup, Pepeeta, which dealt mainly with technology, blockchain and distributed systems, and claims to have links within the NATO and the Italian Armed Forces and Defence ecosystem, “boasting of joining projects and participating in roundtables with high-level institutions”, Jacopo Iacoboni, at La Stampa, reports.

A few days ago, the Court of Cassation confirmed the 5-year prison sentence for the pro-Russian fascist Andrea Palmeri, a friend to Irina Osipova. These are her contacts.

Unless I’m missing something, it is clear that there are a number of conflicts of interest relating to Osipova—her contacts within Russian paramilitary groups, Fascist- inspired groups in Rome, her husband’s current work for the Italian Armed Forces—which should spur Italian authorities to terminate her work in the Italian Senate since she has access to the archives and classified documents. Unfortunately, she cannot be sent back to Russia because she has Russian-Italian duo-citizenship—how convenient.

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Programming note…

Byline TV: Two years ago Vladimir Putin launched his full scale invasion of Ukraine. The world expected Kyiv to fall in just three days, but the fierce Ukrainian resistance surprised everybody and Kyiv remains unconquered.

Oz Katerji was there to document it.