Mar 18: Saturday Stories
Day 388: Bakhmut BlackSea Vulehar Crimea China PutinICC SpyNetwork grain Turkey UAenergy Pushilin RUbusiness CHrifles TikTok 1000rifles A&P Gontar Panyi Sciutto Ferris-Rotman Boot Amanpour Trump
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Suspilne reported on March 17 on its Telegram channel that civilians are being evacuated from Bakhmut, the key frontline battleground.
Southern Command: 'Atypical' activity of Russian naval grouping recorded in Black Sea. Russia has withdrawn 20 ships and many of its auxiliary fleet's units into the Black Sea on the morning of March 16, said Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk, calling it "atypical activity and a number of ships."
UK MoD: Russian Defense Ministry insists on capturing Vuhledar as it competes with Wagner. Russia's Ministry of Defense has been "insistent in its drive for success" in Vulhedar, partially due to its competition with Wagner Group, which has achieved a measure of tactical success in the Bakhmut sector, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on March 16.
Intelligence: Russian occupying forces in Crimea preparing for defense. The Russian military keeps "a powerful ground and aviation component" in Crimea, building fortifications and preparing for defense on the occupied peninsula, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy chief of Ukraine's military intelligence, said on March 16.
US official: 'Ukraine doesn't have time to waste' ahead of counteroffensive. Ukraine's upcoming counteroffensive has the United States fast-tracking the supply of weapons and training Ukrainian soldiers, with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warning, "Ukraine doesn't have any time to waste," Politico reported.
Denis Pushilin, the Russian-installed leader in occupied Donetsk, told state-owned news agency Tass on Thursday that he does not see any signs Ukraine is withdrawing from Bakhmut. He is quoted as saying “In Bakhmut, the situation remains complicated, difficult, that is, we do not see that there are any prerequisites there that the enemy is going to simply withdraw units”.
NYT: Xi Jinping will visit Russia next week. His expected talks with Putin could have wide implications for the Ukraine war. Xi’s trip will be watched closely by leaders in the United States and Europe who are frustrated with China’s diplomatic and economic support for Russia.
Putin met Russia’s leading billionaires and business elite in person on March 16. The Russian leader urged them to invest in new technology, production facilities and enterprises to help Russia overcome what he said were western attempts to destroy its economy, Reuters reports. Images from the gathering showed those attending included the billionaires Oleg Deripaska, Vladimir Potanin, Alexei Mordashov, German Khan, Viktor Vekselberg, Viktor Rashnikov, Andrei Melnichenko and Dmitry Mazepin, whose interests range from metals and banking to fertilisers.
Russian military-linked hackers targeted – and in some cases successfully infiltrated – the networks of European military, energy and transportation organizations in an apparent spying campaign that went undetected for months as the war in Ukraine raged, Microsoft told its customers in a report obtained by CNN. Microsoft blamed a hacking group that US officials have publicly linked to Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency.
Tass reported that Russia and China hope to sign as many as 12 joint documents during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow next week, with two planned to be directly signed by Xi and President Vladimir Putin.
Chinese companies have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by POLITICO.
The shipments took place between June and December 2022, according to the data provided by ImportGenius, a customs data aggregator. Russian entities also received 12 shipments of drone parts by Chinese companies and over 12 tons of Chinese body armor, routed via Turkey, in late 2022, according to the data.
General Staff: Russia transports stolen Ukrainian grain via occupied Berdiansk port. A Russian barge was spotted transporting stolen Ukrainian wheat from the occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff's evening update says. This news comes as the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire on March 18.
Poland confirms it broke up Russian spy network. Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski confirmed on March 16 that Warsaw had broken up a Russian espionage network, detaining nine people allegedly preparing sabotage acts and monitoring rail routes to Ukraine. A day before, Polish radio station RMF24 reported the country's security agency had arrested six people who were part of the Russian spy ring.
Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, has said she sees no danger of war in her countries while Ukraine continues to hold out against Russia.
There is no danger of war coming to Moldova while Ukraine is fighting. I want to reassure our citizens that Moldova is not now in any danger of war. The Russian army cannot get here while Ukraine holds out – and (thus) protects Moldova. We are grateful to Ukrainians for their bravery and love of freedom.
Estonia to transfer more weapons, special equipment to Ukraine. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur's proposal to send another military defense package to Ukraine has been approved, ERR reported.
France accused of stalling EU plan to replenish Ukraine's ammunition stocks. France was accused of slowing down the European Union's plan to ramp up ammunition supply to Ukraine by demanding that the shells be produced within the bloc, the Telegraph reported on March 15, citing unnamed EU sources.
Chancellor Scholz, has also announced further arms deliveries to Ukraine on March 16. He said:
It is particularly important to quickly provide Ukraine with the necessary ammunition. At the European Council, we will decide on further measures together with our EU partners to achieve an even better, continuous supply.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Friday that Turkey will start the process of ratifying Finland’s Nato membership bid in parliament after the country took concrete steps to keep its promises.
BBC: TikTok is set to be banned on phones used by government ministers and civil servants. The UK's National Cyber Security Centre has been reviewing whether TikTok should be barred from government phones, with the government under pressure from senior MPs to follow the United States and the European Commission in banning the app. Canada and Belgium have taken similar action.
Russia has committed a wide-range of war crimes in Ukraine including wilful killings, systematic torture and the deportation of children, according to a report from a UN-backed inquiry published on March 16.
Russian forces have carried out “indiscriminate and disproportionate” attacks on Ukraine, resorted to torture, killed civilians outside of combat and failed to take measures to safeguard the Ukrainian population, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, a UN-mandated investigative body, said.
International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin
The international criminal court (ICC) has issued warrants of arrest for President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s presidential commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.
In a statement, the ICC said there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that the Russian leader “bears criminal responsibility” for the “war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation” in Ukrainian occupied territory.
It writes that there are also “reasonable grounds” to believe that Lvova-Belova “bears individual criminal responsibility” for “the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation”.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, has responded to the international criminal court’s arrest warrant against President Vladimir Putin stating that Russia does not recognise the court’s legitimacy. Monique: WHO CARES.
Jim Sciutto, Black Sea attack fallout
US is assessing drone ops over the Black Sea following harassment by Russian jets, 4 US officials tell CNN. US is “taking a close look” at the drones’ routes and assessing how to better deconflict w/ the Russians.
The US has not stopped the flights entirely amid the assessment—the military sent the same model of drone, an MQ-9 Reaper, on a mission in approximately the same area over the Black Sea shortly after the collision occurred.
However, the Pentagon has asked European Command to justify surveillance flights in the area going forward in part to assess risk, a senior US military official said.
Officials also plan to analyze the overall costs and benefits of flying these missions, comparing the potential intelligence value of a particular route versus the risk of escalation with Russia.
There is concern among some in the US military that limiting routes will impact intelligence gathering related to the Ukraine war.
Amie Ferris-Rotman, What My Pregnancy in Moscow Taught Me of Putin’s Russia- News Line Magazine
My experience as a mother-to-be showed me how, for many Russians, motherhood and motherland are inextricably entwined
When I was six weeks pregnant and living in Moscow, my husband and I went to our local clinic for a checkup. This was a big one, when the viability of the pregnancy is determined, and we walked hand in hand, full of bubbly apprehension. After years of trying and three rounds of in vitro fertilization (IVF), I was pregnant at last. This appointment would tell us if the critter had survived life’s first hurdle. The hot July air surged through our nostrils, infused with hope. We swung open the clinic’s heavy doors, wrapped our sandal-clad feet in the plastic covers ubiquitous in Russian hospitals, and made for the glass elevator that transported us up to our doctor’s floor.
But once inside her room, our shared joy came to an abrupt halt. My OB-GYN — for the sake of anonymity, let’s call her Dr. Ivanova — instructed me to undress, before throwing her untrusting eyes in the direction of my husband, Joël. “This part is not for you,” she said sternly, pointing a gloved finger toward the door. Ivanova squeezed some lube onto a wandlike instrument and readied the stirrups of the chair. Joël scuttled away. With the ultrasound probe inside me and him relegated to the corridor, I then heard the gorgeous, defiant boom of our baby’s heartbeat for the first time. The future ricocheted off the gray linoleum walls, all love, speed and promise. Ivanova reassuringly patted my hand; the nurse shot me a toothy smile. But the father of my child had missed it all.
By the third or fourth check-up, Ivanova greeted us with a beatific smile. “Here they are!” she would say, clapping her hands in delight. “My foreigners!”
As she told us many times, we were her only non-Russian patients, and Ivanova saw this as an opportunity to educate us about the superiority of the Russian state. She was the kind of patriot who largely believed the pro-Kremlin line: that Russians are mistreated by the many Russophobes who populate the West and are unfair victims in a world of competing imperialist interests. She was one of the many Russians who went to occupied Crimea for her summer vacation. “Credit cards don’t work, but the airport has a whole green wall made of self-watering plants. Real plants!” she informed us.
During one of my early weigh-ins, Ivanova was not pleased about my 2-pound gain. “Amie,” she said, eyeing the digital monitor. “This is a lot!”
“I was on vacation,” I ventured, sheepishly. “Anywhere nice?” “America.” “America,” she repeated, fire in her voice, her heavily made-up eyes suddenly wide and animated. “We should be the ones sanctioning them. They willingly choose to destroy women’s health. They are poisoners of pregnant women! And they call themselves the greatest nation on earth!” Her usually silent nurse erupted into a cackle. “Sanctions!” she cried, smashing her fist on the table. “Sanction America!” There was no mistaking that I now belonged to a deeply muliebral world, which was about more than just keeping men out of prenatal classes and the delivery room. It was the sacrosanct Russian cult of motherhood; this was a purely female endeavor where pregnant women’s bodies should not be seen by men and where a woman’s responsibility to the survival of the motherland, her patriotic duty to reproduce, was paramount. [continue reading]
Max Boot, Russia’s population crisis is making Putin more dangerous- WaPo
Stephen Sestanovich, a former U.S. ambassador at large to the Soviet republics who is now a colleague of mine at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me that Putin is motivated by a “fever dream of decline.” The depopulation of Russia, he said, “feeds Putin’s apocalyptic sense of his own grand responsibilities. If you’re worried about a shrinking population, maybe conquering the 40 million people next door will solve your problem?”
Of course, in trying to address Russia’s manpower deficit, Putin only exacerbates it. But, alas, there is no evidence that Russia is running out of cannon fodder to send to Ukraine. An estimated 7.2 million Russian men are between the ages of 18 and 26. Putin was able to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers last year with little difficulty, and another draft may be in the offing. He may have more trouble keeping his vow to expand the army from 1.1 million soldiers to 1.5 million by 2026, but he doesn’t need an extra 400,000 troops to continue inflicting great suffering on the people of Ukraine.
In the short term, the loss of so many emigrants may actually help Putin by solidifying his control. “The problematic people are gone, and those who remain are the ones the regime needs to sustain itself and the war,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Friday was a great day!
