Mar 19: E-Stories

LylaZapo Odesa Donetsk CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Protest Allies A&P CormacSmith Maasikas LBC UKDef ISW CDS NoelReport Edwards Kakcharov Pavel Zelensky KyivIndie Schmitt Jonsson

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Lyla: In Zaporizhzhia, families of prisoners of war held an action "Two hearts in captivity" in the center of the city. Some of the participants sat at the tables, across from the chairs with the military uniforms of their captured relatives. Such an action was also held in other cities of Ukraine. We remember the heroes and wait their return.

Stories we’re following…

Death toll in Russian missile strike on Odesa rises to 21, at least 73 injured. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on March 16 that the death toll had risen to 21 after another wounded person died in the hospital.

Russian shelling of Donetsk Oblast village kills civilian, injures another. Russia launched an artillery strike against the village of Novoselivka Persha in Donetsk Oblast's Ocheretyne community on March 16, killing a 51-year-old man and injuring another resident, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

Two explosions were reported in Mykolaiv during an air raid on Sunday according to city mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych and other officials. The explosion occurred after an alarm was raised, and military authorities had warned of the potential threat of ballistic weapons from the East.

UK defense secretary canceled planned Odesa visit due to Russian threat. U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps' scheduled visit to Odesa was canceled after U.K. intelligence officials informed him that Moscow was aware of his travel plans.

Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery. Overnight, the Nefte Peregonnyy Zavod in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in the Krasnodar Krai was struck with at least 7 UAVs.

In total, 35 UAVs attacked the Krasnodar, Moscow, Yaroslavl, Kaluga, Bilhorod, Rostov, Oryol, and Kursk regions. The airport in Moscow was closed for a period due to drone strikes.

Anti-Kremlin militia claims to have captured 25 Russian troops. In a video published on Telegram early on March 16, the Russian Volunteer Corps's commander Denys Nikitin, also known by his nom de guerre "White Rex," talks to a man introduced as captured Russian senior lieutenant Alexei Volkov.

The Russian liberation forces were active Saturday night, and Sunday in Belgorod and other areas. Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on March 26 on national television that anti-Kremlin militias were becoming "a force" and Ukraine would help them "to the extent possible."

Cormac Smith’s analysis and comments on LBC today on why we need to increase defence capabilities and armaments to Ukraine.

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Combat Situation Update

Today, the Russians are not active in the Black Sea - they are afraid to even patrol it. Russia realizes that there is danger because they remember what happened to the patrol ship Sergey Kotov, Operational Command 'South' spokeswoman Nataliya Humenyuk said.

"The missile carriers continue to be in the Black Sea, even though they are in their home base and have not been used on combat duty for more than 3 weeks. But the threat from them is no less, because they can be used from the bay, even though it is dangerous, in particular, for the Russians themselves."

ISW: Russian forces likely captured Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (southwest of Avdiivka) no later than March 16.

• Geolocated footage published on March 15 shows that a Russian armored column recently advanced west of Tonenke, and additional geolocated footage published on March 16 shows elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) advancing into and raising a flag in Nevelske.

• The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka stated on March 15 that Russian forces near Avdiivka are innovating and changing classical Wagner Group-style infantry-led “meat assaults” with assaults using armored vehicles to increase and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian forces.

The Telegraph: Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of ammunition, with reports indicating that it will exhaust its air defense missile supply by the end of the month. This shortage decreases Ukraine's capability to intercept incoming Russian missiles by 60%. (Me: We knew that when the US stopped its shipments to Ukraine last October, the ammunition in storage in Ukraine would be exhausted in six months.)

There are claims that a military unit in Transnistria was attacked by a kamikaze drone, an explosion and a fire occurred - Ministry of State Security "Transnistria" reports. The debris shown is apparently from a Mil-Mi-8 helicopter. (Me: I can’t see the drone incoming, can you? More on this if it debunked somehow.)

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Behind the Lines

National Resistance Center: Resistance disrupts 'voting' in occupied Skadovsk, injures 5 Russian troops. The explosion reportedly occurred at 3 p.m. local time on the central square near the polling station while Russian forces were patrolling nearby.

Secret classes to counter Russian brainwashing in occupied Ukraine.

"No-one had done this before," Nataliia explains to us. "Not in Crimea, or in the occupied Donbas, Kherson or the Zaporizhzhia regions."

Portraits of Vladimir Putin now hang on the walls of Nataliia's old classrooms in Melitopol. The pupils must both learn, and sing, the Russian national anthem. They are even obliged to write "inspirational letters" to Russian soldiers.

This is how Ukrainian children are educated in territories occupied by Russia. They are taught that Ukraine isn't a real country - and Nataliia says, if a child challenges the curriculum, their parents are threatened with beatings or torture.

It's why Nataliia, with her former colleagues, created an online teaching platform to try to "save the minds of Ukrainian children".

"Once we launched it, I wrote a neutral letter, offering the classes to all of the parents," explains Nataliia. "I didn't know who was pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian, and they knew my home address and my relatives".

Media: Latvia investigates MEP accused of spying for Russia. Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) began investigating Tatjana Zdanoka, a Latvian member of the European Parliament accused of spying for Russia, the Latvian news outlet Delfi reported on March 16.

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Meanwhile in Russia

Media: At least 15 criminal cases opened on first day of Russian presidential election. At least 15 criminal cases on alleged "obstruction of the electoral comissions' work" had been opened during the first day of the Russian presidential election, Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on March 15, citing regional investigation committees.

At least 74 people were arrested across Russia in connection with the election, according to OVD-Info. Despite tight controls, there have been several dozen cases of vandalism at polling stations.

Critics of Putin and his Kremlin regime held a protest at Russian polling stations on Sunday, the final day of the sham election. Ruslan Shaveddinov of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation said:

We showed ourselves, all of Russia and the whole world that Putin is not Russia that Putin has seized power in Russia.

Our victory is that we, the people, defeated fear, we defeated solitude – many people saw they were not alone.”

Me: How did you show Putin you won? The election wasn’t real, and it should not have been legitimised by any action at the polling station. This strategy has helped the Kremlin: while Western outlets have featured Russians with placards denouncing Putin’s war, the Kremlin has made ample use of pictures of long lines at the polling stations as a signal that there is democracy in Russia and support for Putin’s illegitimate regime. This is where it counts. And on top of everything, the Kremlin hoovered up information on those who went to vote, including photos that can be used later.

This strategy only served the Kremlin’s needs because the Kremlin will now say on Russian television shows: “look at all the people who have come to vote for Putin, and they all agree that we should continue the war in Ukraine.” The Guardian reports that there was a record turn out for this sham voting: “Nationwide turnout was 74.22% at 6pm when polls closed, officials said, surpassing 2018 levels of 67.5%.” This will be the basis of further recruitment efforts and Putin’s long-awaited mobilisation, which will probably occur quite soon.

If they want to show that what Putin is doing is wrong, and he should be stopped, then all these associations of Putin protesters could have used this occasion to collect money to send to Ukraine to aid its efforts. There are such associations working quietly behind the scenes to raise money. They also need to remain out of the public eye because they fear repercussions.

Like I was saying: Putin attributed the high turnout at the election to the dramatic situation and the fact that Russia is defending its development with weapons in its hands. In Putin's opinion, the Russian citizens have realized with their hearts that they are in demand, that the country needs them, that the future of Russia depends on them.

The main goals of his next six years in office are "achieving the goals of the special operation and strengthening our defense capacity and armed forces"

Maria Zakarhova questioned if all those voting at foreign embassies were opponents of Putin and accused Western media of disseminating propaganda about the events.

“Russian citizens did not come to the rallies and performances that unfriendly regimes and their paid information services are trying to present,” Zakharova said.

“They came to cast their vote. Who they voted for and how they voted is their free choice. But the fact that they rejected the appeals of the marginalised is obvious to everyone.”

Commenting on the exit poll, President Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address that “the Russian dictator is simulating another election,” and that Putin was “sick for power and is doing everything to rule forever”.

He added: “There is no legitimacy in this imitation of elections and there cannot be. This person should be on trial in The Hague. That’s what we have to ensure.”

The Polish Ministry has also reacted to the exit polls:

From 15 to 17 March 2024, so-called presidential elections took place in Russia. The voting took place in conditions of extreme repression against society, making it impossible to make a free, democratic choice.”

The British Foreign Office has commented on the elections:

By illegally holding elections on Ukrainian territory, Russia demonstrates that it is not interested in finding a path to peace. The UK will continue to provide humanitarian, economic and military aid to Ukrainians defending their democracy.”

Germany’s Foreign Ministry also commented:

The pseudo-election in Russia is neither free nor fair, the result will surprise nobody. Putin’s rule is authoritarian, he relies on censorship, repression & violence. The “election” in the occupied territories of Ukraine are null and void & another breach of international law.”

Mar 16—Marcus Jonsson: “Last 46 hours Baltic Jammer has been running in south Baltics. At least 873 unique aircrafts has had their navigation equipment jammed. Each one a passenger jet filled with civilians.

E.g. Ryanairs SP-RKS has been without GPS for at least 2 hours going in and out of Vilnius.”

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Allied Support

Kuleba calls Blinken to discuss unblocking Ukraine aid stalled in Congress. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on X on March 16 that he held a telephone call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss the potential unblocking of aid for Ukraine that has been stuck in Congress since autumn 2023.

Our friend Dr Ben Schmitt on TVP World to talk about the Weimar Triangle: Poland, France and Germany, Russia’s sham voting, and steps the Transatlantic community should be taking at this time.

"Putin released the transcript of that leaked call to embarrass the Germans to not send their Taurus missiles to Ukraine. My point… is to call Putin’s bluff. I also want to help assist Germany to provide the long-range Taurus missiles… Of course it makes absolute sense to have those available, in a war going on in mainland Europe now, against a dictator who has taken democratic land. What are we waiting for, folks?,” UK Defense Minister Shapps said.

Tusk urges House speaker Johnson to 'take decision' on stalled Ukraine aid after Russian attack on Odesa. "Look at Odesa! How many more arguments do you need to take a decision?" Tusk wrote on X on March 16, tagging Johnson.

Politico: Finnish FM does not rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine. At the same time, Finland is not currently willing to send troops or even ready to discuss it, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said.

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We’ve all been asking the same question.

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