Mar 19: Sunday Stories
Day 389: Bakhmut Zaporizhzhia Shoigu RUcasualties/law/oil Alfa Sherbank CH UE SBU Kazakhstan BEL NPSA YellowRibbon Haas A&P Zelensky UKDef TheSpyMuseum Sabbagh Tsikanouvskaya Lautman Weiss Snyder
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky calls Putin arrest warrant 'historic', discusses frontline situation with military. President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his nightly address on March 17 that the International Criminal Court's (ICC) decision to issue an arrest warrant to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was "historic" and there was a "real prospect" to see justice served.
Military: Russia's troops attempting to surround Bakhmut, suffering heavy losses. Russia has used all its forces in Bakhmut in an effort to completely surround the city, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, said on March 17.
Air Force: 11 out of 16 Shahed drones downed by Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 out of 16 Iranian-made Shahed drones Russia launched at Ukraine late on March 17, Air Force reported.
The United States has confirmed that rounds of Chinese ammunition have been used in battlefields in Ukraine and suspects they were fired by Russian forces, government sources said Friday. Whether the ammunition was supplied by China remains unclear, the U.S. administration sources said, while adding Washington is poised to take action if it is verified Beijing made the shipments. The United States has notified some of its partners about the confirmation, according to the sources.
Unclear how long the battle for Bakhmut will continue. Front line in the city runs along the river which has become a "killing zone". Grim, intense fighting although signs shelling slightly abating.
Ukraine ammunition expenditure currently running ahead of western production, official concedes, but no sign of defenders losing the city. However, there is a defensible ring of hills to the west that Ukraine army can retreat to if needed.
On China - still no sign of Beijing supplying lethal aid to Moscow - but the senior Nato official warns it has not been taken off the table either. Intense western focus on this, not surprisingly.
Ukraine counter offensive may or may not come relatively quickly. Russians fear an attack south from Zaporizhzhia or in northern Luhansk. First half of the year critical for Ukraine to train and build capability, official adds.
Putin, visited the annexed peninsula of Crimea to mark nine years since Russia seized it. Russian state TV showed a brief clip of a casually dressed Putin walking with a group of officials, and promised further details shortly, Reuters reports.
Defense Minister Shoigu decorates the pilots who recently intercepted an American drone over the Black Sea and knocked it into the water, though Moscow denies that last part.
Federal Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin ordered a formal inquiry to identify the ICC judges responsible for the “illegal” arrest warrants issued for Putin and Lvova-Belova.
Putin signed a law on Saturday introducing lengthy prison terms for “discrediting” and spreading “fake” information about any force, including the notorious Wagner Group mercenary unit, fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
According to a new analysis by the International Energy Agency, Russia’s oil-export revenue fell last month to its lowest in more than a year, due to buyers’ compliance with price caps and sanctions. Russia is exporting about the same volume of oil, but the price ain’t the same.
On Thursday, Alfa Group shareholder German Khan (who is reportedly lobbying the E.U. for sanctions relief) attended a panel with Vladimir Putin at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs congress. Last year, a meeting at the Kremlin between business leaders and Putin on the day of the full-scale invasion became grounds for Western sanctions against the attendees.
Sberbank’s supervisory board recommended that the bank pay a total of 565 billion rubles (7.3 billion USD), or 25 rubles (0.3 USD) per share, for 2022. German Gref, chairman of the bank’s board, said these were the highest payouts in the history of Sberbank. He thanked investors who “believed in the bank during a complex period.”
Sources at the international criminal court said they thought it was now “very unlikely” that Vladimir Putin would travel to any country currently supporting Ukraine. If he did so he risked arrest, they pointed out. They said it was possible Putin would still fly to China which is not a signatory to the Rome statute, the treaty which obliges governments to enforce ICC warrants.
Biden: Putin has committed war crimes, charges justified. U.S. President Joe Biden said that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin is justified. "He's clearly committed war crimes," Biden added.
Chancellor Scholz has welcomed the international criminal court’s decision to issue an arrest warrant for Putin. “The international criminal court is the right institution to investigate war crimes ... The fact is that nobody is above the law and that’s what’s becoming clear right now,” Scholz said at a press conference with Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida, Reuters reports.
China's Xi Jinping to visit Russia on March 20-22. The state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia will take place from March 20 to 22, according to a statement published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. It will be Xi's first trip to Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February last year.
Reuters: Several EU countries to sign deal to send artillery shells to Ukraine. A high-ranking EU official has confirmed that "several" member states will likely sign an agreement on March 20 to provide Ukraine with 155 mm artillery shells.
EU official: Ukraine to receive second tranche of 18 billion euro aid package next week. The European Union will provide Ukraine with 1.5 billion euros as the second tranche of an 18 billion euro macro-financial assistance package, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said on March 17.
Ukraine’s SBU Security Service uncovered Russian sleeper agents leaking positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces near Bakhmut to Russian intelligence, the SBU’s press service reported on Telegram on March 16.
Kazakhstan is facing a surge in requests from Russian companies for help circumventing Western sanctions, Reuters reported, citing seven people with direct knowledge of the situation. According to them, in recent weeks, Russian business has literally “overwhelmed” Kazakh counterparties with proposals for joint work. The idea is to arrange the supply of goods, including sanctioned goods - from spare parts for aircraft to rare earth metals from Australia.
Belarus on Friday handed long jail terms to senior staff at the country's largest independent news site, which was forced to shutter after historic demonstrations against strongman Alexander Lukashenko. The verdicts are the latest in a crackdown targeting journalists, opposition figures and activists who challenged Lukashenko's claim that he won a sixth presidential term in 2020. A court in Minsk sentenced the editor-in-chief of the Tut.by portal, Marina Zolotova, 45, and general director Lyudmila Chekina, 54, to 12 years behind bars.
Opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, who faces up to 25 years in jail on charges including treason, was too unwell to attend his hearing on Thursday, his lawyer said.
UK: A new security agency began its job of protecting the UK from state-sponsored and terrorist threats on March 15. The National Protective Security Authority (NPSA) was created as part of a major new review of government defense spending known as the Integrated Review Refresh. It will work with existing agencies the National Cyber Security Centre and the National Counter Terrorism Security Office to provide defensive advice to UK organizations targeted with cyber- and other threats. In the digital sphere this could range from cyber-espionage and IP theft to disruptive or destructive cyber-attacks.- InfoSecurity Group
Reuters: Riot police clashed with protesters in Paris as new demonstrations took place against President Emmanuel Macron's plans to raise the French state pension age to 64 from 62. French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne used a special procedure to push the pensions bill through without a vote, causing rare chaotic scenes in parliament.
Contrary to the emerging conventional wisdom and media narrative in the West, Karl thinks Ukraine's strategy for holding Bakhmut is the correct one.
"If Ukraine leaves Bakhmut, the Russians will not stop there. Similar battles will follow in the next place, whether Chasiv Yar or Kostyantynivka or even Kramatorsk and Slovyansk."
"After Russia conquered Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the summer they were not able to have any serious offensives until January, so it’s worth letting them run out of troops and ammunition trying to conquer relatively unimportant towns."
Are the Russians culminating? "I do think it’s the culmination of the current Russian attack. If you look at the numbers of daily Russian offensives, it has decreased quite a lot during the last week."
Asked about recent reports of low morale and recriminations among Ukrainian battalion commanders in Bakhmut, Karl answers: "The problem with the level of battalion commanders is that they don’t have the big picture."
"I don’t see better plans. As said, if they withdraw, then it’s just going to be the next town."
What about Ukraine losing its most experience, battle-tested forces in the fight for the city?
"I’m not that concerned. They have given relatively good training to a huge number of the soldiers since the start of this phase of the war. That’s a huge difference in comparison to Russians."
Will Ukraine hang onto Bakhmut or withdraw soon, with the goal of killing as many Russians on their way out as possible? "It depends. If there’s no risk of encircling then they probably try to hold on. The risk is probably now a little less than it was a week ago.
Follow up on Navalny’s position vis-a-vis Crimea- The Moscow Times
The jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny released a 15-point plan outlining his vision for a post-war Russia last month which, while largely reaffirming his previously held positions, did at least indicate one potentially significant policy shift.
Asking rhetorically where Ukraine’s borders should be, Navalny’s answer is simple: Ukraine’s borders are those “internationally recognized and defined in 1991.”
It may seem insignificant, but his answer represents a major deviation from the usual Team Navalny line. As recently as January, Navalny’s deputy at the Anti-Corruption Foundation, Maria Pevchikh, refused to discuss the future status of Crimea in a controversial interview with The Guardian.
Simon Ostrovsky: In our exclusive report for PBS News Hour we reveal that California-based manufacturing giant Haas Automation is suspect of flouting US sanctions and supplying Russia’s arms industry with sophisticated machining tools. Full story:
“War on Fakes”- Solovyev’s propaganda network
"War on Fakes" was created on February 24, 2022 and quickly gained significant traction, averaging more than 20 million daily viewers on the Telegram account and reaching more than 500,000 subscribers within its first week online.
Logically was able to attribute the associated domains and account to the presenter through information available on a public registry, and discovered he has been conducting a segment called "Fake Control" on Solovyov Live since at least August 2022.
Prior to the expanded invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he had worked for an "autonomous non-profit" founded by order of Russian President Putin which sought to better communications between the government and civil society.
There was an attempt to expand into other languages, which was largely unsuccessful, though "fact-checks" from "War on Fakes" are regularly shared on mainstream social media and translated into languages such as Chinese, German, Arabic, Spanish, and French on their website.
For the full report, download here.
Trump helps Russia…
Trump’s statements in this short video illustrate exactly what Russia hopes for from a politician in the West. It’s not Russia’s war of agression and genocide against Ukraine that’s the problem, but the United States. He is repeating a Russian narrative word for word.
Olga Lautman, Wagner chief 'wants Putin gone' leaving Russian President 'nervous' of power grab- The Express
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters want Vladimir Putin removed from power so the Wagner Group boss can launch his own leadership bid in Moscow, according to an expert. Prigozhin's private military group has helped the Russian military in Ukraine, especially in Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops have had to battle swathes of conscripts. But Prigozhin has also used his platform since publicly revealing himself as Wagner's leader last year to challenge the defence ministry in Moscow.
Russia expert Olga Lautman told Express.co.uk that this puts Putin in a difficult position. She said the Russian President is threatened by Prigozgin, but Moscow's military still needs the help of Wagner forces.
She said: "Over the last year, Prigozhin has become more public and taken on this populist role. He has basically been going after Putin's inner circle, including the defence ministry.
"I think he is trying to carve out a path for a power grab. Putin is stuck because he needs the Wagner mercenaries, and he needs the defence ministry. If he goes against Prigozhin, he knows that will cause an even bigger split.
"Prigozhin is also an expert at running the propaganda channels. With that, he has managed to create a very loyal following who all have zero issues calling for Putin to step down and shaking the whole system.
"He is doing it for a power grab, and I think eventually he will challenge Putin."
Programming note…
Timothy Snyder, Making of Modern Ukraine 6
In the history of Europe, whether seen from the west or seen from Moscow, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania is often a missing piece. Yet it was once the largest state in Europe, and it is was the continent’s last major pagan power. After the coming of the Mongols, Lithuania gained control of most of the territories of old Kyivan Rus, whose peoples in turn transformed the Duchy’s politics and society. (Moscow, meanwhile, remained under the control of Mongol successor states). Many of the civilizational attainments of Kyiv, which became part of Lithuania, were preserved by the Grand Duchy. When the Grand Dukes of Lithuania became Polish kings, this created a new synthesis that would last for four hundred years, and will be the subject of lectures to come.