Mar 20: Buonasera Mag
Day 390: Zaporizhzhia Sevastopol Bakhmut conscripts Luhansk Syria Lavra Mariupol SER Hofmanski Trump Simonyan A&P UKDef Matviyishyn Davis Sumlenny Aslund Zelensky Haring Prokopenko Moskalenko Lautman
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Three civilians have been killed and another two injured by Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia, according to posts on the regional military administration’s Telegram.
Explosions reported in occupied Sevastopol. Local Telegram channels reported explosions in Russian-occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on the morning of March 18. Mikhail Razvozhayev, Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, wrote on his Telegram channel that military training is underway at one of the polygons of the city.
Ukrainian forces outside the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut are keeping Russian units at bay so ammunition, food and medicines can be delivered to defenders, the army said on Saturday. A military spokesperson, Serhiy Cherevaty, told the ICTV television channel:
We are managing to deliver the necessary munitions, food, gear and medicines to Bakhmut. We are also managing to take our wounded out of the city.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely to raise conscription age to bolster troop numbers. The Russian State Duma deputies introduced a bill on March 13, aimed at changing the age bracket for military conscription to men from the current 18-27 to 21-30 years, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its daily update on March 18.
Julia Davis: Some of the advertisements seeking mercenaries and volunteers to join Putin's invasion of Ukraine are now followed by this war promo clip, featuring Putin, Lenin, Stalin and Peter the Great, alongside the visual cacophony of Soviet and religious imagery.
Russian troops have started large-scale military training in the occupied territories of Luhansk Oblast, which is how the occupiers are trying to hide the general mobilisation of the local male population.
"The so-called local authorities in the temporarily occupied and captured territories of Luhansk Oblast have announced the start of large-scale military training involving the entire conscripted male population of Starobilsk, Shchastia, Novyi Aidar, Novopskov and Nizhnooteple who have passports marked ‘LPR’ and ‘Russian Federation’.
In this way, the occupiers are trying to hide mass mobilisation in the above-mentioned settlements."
US top defense officials discuss Kyiv's weapon supply needs ahead of spring counteroffensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, reported on March 18 that he, along with Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, and other defense officials, had held a video call with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley.
Announcing new sanctions, Zelensky says Russia must pay for crimes in Ukraine, Syria. President Zelensky announced sanctions on 400 more Russian, Iranian, and Syrian individuals and companies on March 18, vowing that Russia and those who help it wage war will be punished.
Epiphanius: Monks can remain at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra if they renounce Moscow. The leader of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine called on Kyiv's religious figures to help throw off "Moscow's yoke," calling Moscow's religious authority in Ukraine "non-canonical" and pointed out that it's used to spin propaganda against Ukraine.
Canada sends armored recovery vehicle to Ukraine. A video posted by Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand on Instagram showed a cargo plane being loaded with a vehicle that appears to be a Bergepanzer 3, which can tow heavy armor, transport or evacuate troops and clear obstacles.
RSI News: “Stop in Ukraine for old Zurich trams - The first vehicles have left for Vinnitsa, where they will remain in service for another 15-20 years - Project manager: "It's a signal. There will also be a post-war period".
It’s another Chinese “underground bank.” Italian financial authorities have reportedly found an illegal operation, geared at covertly moving money to China from a front – an electronics shop – in Florence and a branch in Prato, against payment of 2.5% of the amount transferred. A total of 13 people, all Chinese, are under investigation for membership of a criminal association, illegitimate exercise of financial and banking activities, and fraudulent evasion of tax payments.
Putin? Visited Mariupol?
Social media platforms were circulating a few videos on Sunday showing someone who is supposed to be Putin visiting Mariupol in the middle of the night, and Tass claims that he also visited the command post at Rostov-on-Don. The message the Kremlin wants to deliver: he’s defying the ICC decision. He doesn’t care. If he didn’t care, then why put out the video? OSINT will be on top of this, examing the videos for location and veracity. In the end, the videos don’t change the fact that Putin is a wanted war criminal in 123 states, the consequences of which are discussed below by Anders Aslund.
Serbia’s president has attacked the decision to issue an international arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, saying it will only prolong the war in Ukraine. Aleksandar Vucic told reporters in Belgrade on Sunday:
I think issuing an arrest warrant for Putin, not to go into legal matters, will have bad political consequences and it says that there is a great reluctance to talk about peace (and) about truce.”
Do you really think that it is possible to defeat Russia in a month, three months or a year? There is no doubt that the goal of those who did this is to make it difficult for Putin to communicate, so that everyone who talks to him is aware that he is accused of war crimes.
Anders Aslund: Consequences- Putin is a Global Outlaw
The ICC indictment of Putin is likely to have far-reaching consequences.
1. 123 countries have a priori committed themselves to arrest him - sovereign immunity will not shield him.
2. Putin cannot be invited to any international forum, including the G20 & UN.
3. No decent political leader can have any contact with him. The leaders of Austria, France, Germany & Hungary can no longer even talk to Putin.
4. Scholz & Macron can no longer play mediators between Russia & Ukraine.
5. Orban can no longer thrive on giveaways from Putin.
6. Those who continue seeing Putin will fall into disrepute & lose international standing: Xi Jingping & Erdogan!
7. Russia can not be a serious international negotiator until Putin is gone.
8. Either Russian leaders may finally hesitate to engage in Putin's crimes against humanity. Personal sanctions did not suffice with them, but the indictment against Putin shows that he is a deadender.
But…Russia doesn’t recognise the legitimacy of the ICC!!!
Russian aligned propagandists and vectors of disinformation have been busy over the weekend to discredit the ICC’s issuance of arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. The main narrative for now is that Russia doesn’t recognise the legitimacy of the International Criminial Court and therefore, the arrest warrants mean nothing.
Piotr Hofmanski, President of the International Criminal Court answered:
“This is completely irrelevant [the fact that Russia hasn’t ratified the Rome Statute]. According to the ICC statute, which has 123 state parties, two-thirds of the whole international community, the court has jurisdiction over crimes committed in the territory of a state party or a state which has accepted its jurisdiction.
Ukraine has accepted the ICC twice – in 2014 and then in 2015. Forty-three states have referred the situation in Ukraine to the court, which means that they have formally triggered our jurisdiction. The court has jurisdiction over crimes committed on anyone on the territory of Ukraine from November 2013 onwards regardless of nationality of the alleged perpetrators.”
Will Trump be arrested this week?
On Saturday night on his Truth Social, Trump announced that he would be arrested on Tuesday as reported by the New York Times:
“THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!”
Within hours, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, one of the most powerful people in federal government and who partly owes his position to Mr. Trump, posted on Twitter that he was calling for investigations into whether federal funds were being used for “politically motivated prosecutions,” a thinly veiled threat to Manhattan’s district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg.
Alexandra Prokopenko, A Year of War Has Left Russia’s Elites Anchorless and Atomized- The Moscow Times
The day of the invasion, the president met with influential businessmen (who all went on to be sanctioned), both to demonstrate that business circles approved of his decision and to reassure them. Those present were reportedly told that their businesses would be supported through sanctions in exchange for patriotism on their part. Indeed, the government soon announced measures to support the economy.
Those promises weren’t quite enough, however. The tycoon Oleg Deripaska, a veteran of sanctions lists, described the war as “madness,” the oil giant Lukoil called for an end to the war; and many Russians fled abroad. Wealthy companies reportedly chartered flights to get their staff out of the country, while those that could not afford to do so simply allowed their staff to relocate abroad.
Even those officials and employees at state corporations who wanted to resign found it was easier said than done. Appointments to and dismissals from senior and high-profile roles have long had to be agreed with the Kremlin: with chief of staff Anton Vaino at the very least, if not Putin himself. Once the war began, the president had no time for such trifles. The only senior official to resign last spring was Anatoly Chubais, who had been a special representative for ties with international organizations, and there is some debate over whether his resignation was accepted before or after he left the country. [continue reading]
Oleksandr Moskalenko, Time for Ukraine to Enter the EU Common Market- CEPA
A simple, swift, and permanent opening of the common market would have a huge benefit for Ukraine, which — it’s worth remembering — has suffered a body blow from Russian aggression, with its economy slumping 30.4% last year.
The benefits would be as follows:
First, it would open the largest and richest market in the world for Ukrainian businesses and the labor force. To counteract the effects of Russia’s war, Ukraine needs extraordinary steps to boost economic reconstruction. Access to the common market would throw a lifeline to struggling Ukrainian businesses and mitigate the shocks of war on the economy. Revitalized businesses would be better able to regain and even expand their potential so that they can take part in post-war activities. And greater free trade would help the EU too. Ukraine is, after all, a significant market with a pre-war population of 43 million. And this must be emphasized — accession to the common market is not a for demand privileges; it concerns the establishment of equal rights so that Ukraine can earn its keep. In the longer run, this will mean lower European outlays for the reconstruction effort. [continue reading]
