Mar 20: E-Stories
Day755 RUattacks CombatSit BehindLines Engels InRussia Allies Ramstein Armenia EU CZinitiative A&P Aseyev ISW UKDef NoelReport CDS KFSeskuria Davis KyivIndie CNN CepaCrimea Critical Threats
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Russia has launched 130 missiles of various types, more than 320 Shahed attack drones and almost 900 guided bombs in attacks on Ukraine so far this month, president Zelensky, said.
Stories we’re following…
1 killed, 6 injured, including child, in Russian attack on Mykolaiv. Russian forces attacked the southern city of Mykolaiv twice with missiles earlier in the day.
1 killed, 1 injured in Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast. One person was killed and another injured as a result of Russian aerial bomb attacks on Velyka Pysarivka in Sumy Oblast, the local military administration said on March 17 in its evening update.
Russia launches attacks against several regions, hits infrastructure. Russian troops launched an attack against several Ukrainian regions, including Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, on the evening of March 17, local authorities reported.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka on March 19. Geolocated footage published on March 19 shows that Russian forces recently advanced on the northwestern edge of the Pervomaiske Dam in Pervomaiske, SW of Avdiivka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized Orlivka, NW of Avdiivka, but ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of Russian forces fully controlling the settlement.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are intensifying attacks on Berdychi and Tonenke and that Russian aviation is conducting constant FAB glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in these two settlements.
Positional engagements continued near Bakhmut, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson oblast on March 19 with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Gunvor: Russia has lost 600,000 barrels of daily oil-refining capacity due to drone attacks. Ukraine's recent drone attacks have knocked out about 600,000 barrels of Russia's daily oil-refining capacity, as estimated by Torbjorn Tornqvist, the director of the international energy commodities trading company Gunvor Group, Bloomberg reported on March 18.
Deputy minister: Russia fires 7 times more shells than Ukraine. "(Ukraine's) stocks of ammunition of certain types are falling to a critical level," Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, said.
Engels, home to strategic bomber military airbase in Russia was attacked by drones on Mar 19-20 during the night. A strategic aviation base is located in Engels, where Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers are located, which are used in mass missile attacks on Ukraine.
Ukraine hopes to have enough ammunition for its troops to repel Russian aggression starting from April amid a Czech-led initiative to source shells for supply, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said on Tuesday.
Shoigu calls for better Navy defense in visit to Black Sea Fleet, Russian Defense Ministry says. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered increased training and more weapons to repel Ukraine's attacks on the Black Sea Fleet, according to a statement by Russia's Defense Ministry on March 17.
Anti-Kremlin militia claims it captured local administration in Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Russian volunteer fighters from the Siberian Battalion claimed to have entered the Gorkovsky settlement in Russia's Belgorod Oblast and taken control of the local administration building, the militia said on March 17.
A Russian energy ministry official earlier revealed plans to defend oil and gas facilities with missile systems. “We are jointly working, including with colleagues from the Russian National Guard, to cover objects, on installing, accordingly, protection systems such as Pantsir,” Artyom Verkhov, director of energy ministry’s department for gas industry development, told a parliament meeting.
President Zelensky’s evening address about the Ramstein meeting:
Today is another Ramstein, a meeting of countries that support our defense, our protection against Russian terror. This is a productive meeting, and there are results. Ukraine's Defense Minister Umerov participated. I am waiting for his detailed report. I can say a few things now. There will be new defense packages, including scarce artillery. New states are joining the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition - thank you all.
Of course, the priority for air defense, electronic warfare and drones remains unchanged. I am grateful to all the countries that are really working to make this our priority. Ukrainian drones are already delivering strong results, and we must significantly strengthen the international component of cooperation. The frontline must feel our strengthening in terms of drones. I am grateful to all the participants of Ramstein and to the United States, to Secretary Austin for his leadership.
Dana Massicot: Delays in U.S. lethal aid are having negative impacts on the battlefield in Ukraine. Massicot explains what might come next following these setbacks and what signposts of degrading combat conditions may look like:
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian forces stop 3 Russian saboteur groups from advancing in Sumy Oblast. Border guards and Ukrainian troops in Sumy Oblast stopped three groups of Russian saboteurs from advancing, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service reported on March 17.
Authorities have uncovered nearly 400 networks aiding draft evaders since start of war. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, law enforcement agencies have uncovered nearly 400 criminal networks that help individuals evade military service by aiding them in fleeing abroad, a spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced on March 17.
Polish farmers blocked two border crossings with Germany on Monday, local police said.
Farmers in Poland and across the EU have been calling for changes to restrictions placed on them by the EU’s Green Deal plan to tackle climate change, and for the re-imposition of customs duties on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine that were waived after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
On Monday, farmers blocked the Swiecko and Gubinek border crossings with Germany. A local police spokesperson said that the blockades started on Sunday and were scheduled to continue until Wednesday.
Me: can we channel the Polish farmers’ anger into something positive?
South Korea believes that North Korea has sent about 7,000 containers with ammunition and other military equipment to Russia since last year. Pyongyang has likely received over 9,000 containers of aid in return for military support.
See more on Armenia in the Allies section:
South Ossetia, under Russian occupation, has discussed becoming part of Russia with Moscow officials, Russian news agency RIA cited the head of South Ossetia’s parliament.
German prosecutors have charged an officer in the country’s military procurement agency with attempting to pass secret information to Russian intelligence, Reuters reported. The German national is accused of repeatedly approaching Russia’s consulate in Bonn and embassy in Berlin to offer his cooperation.
Jens Stotlenberg was in Armenia yesterday. This is a twist.
Ahead of a summit of EU leaders later this week, president Zelensky, has said that he spoke with the European Council president, Charles Michel. “We focused on further steps toward the actual start of Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations, as well as further comprehensive EU support for Ukraine,” he said.
We also identified potential ways to increase the supply of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. We discussed the importance of extending autonomous trade benefits for Ukraine for another year. I emphasized that maintaining the trade liberalization regime with the EU is critical to supporting Ukraine’s economy during the war.
Meanwhile in Russia
Putin will travel to China in May for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in what could be the Russian president’s first overseas trip of his new presidential term, sources told Reuters. “Putin will visit China,” one of the sources, said. The details were independently confirmed to Reuters by four other sources, who also spoke on condition of anonymity. Putin’s trip to China is thought likely to take place in the second half of May, according to one source.
Bloomberg: China on track to receive record levels of Russian oil imports in March. While India has also remained a critical market for Russian oil, payment issues, in part related to Western sanctions, have caused delays in the trade of oil between the two countries.
Sergey Ryabkov, Putin’s deputy foreign minister famous for demanding of NATO to “pack your things & go back to pre-1997 borders” delivered to a hospital with a heart attack. (Me: this heart attack could actually be true. Checking.)
Julia Davis: Head of RT Margarita Simonyan praised Putin's so-called reelection as a stunning accomplishment and said she is eagerly waiting for Russia to take more Ukrainian lands.
Military intelligence: Mobilization in Russia can occur more 'openly' with election over. At the same time, Andrii Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence said that mobilization has continued in Russia throughout the campaign and election.
Me: this was my point on Sunday about the legitimisation of the election via a protest that was supposed to do the opposite. Putin will now move to mobilisation. The few Russians I consult have told me that Putin was waiting for the ‘elections’ to be over for further mobilisation. For those who don’t want to fight, escaping from Russia with an illegal passport remains an expensive option but those are now difficult to find.
The Kremlin said that the only way to protect Russian territory from Ukrainian attacks was to create a buffer zone that would put Russian regions beyond the reach of Ukrainian fire. In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said:
“Against the backdrop of (Ukrainian) drone attacks and the shelling of our territory: public facilities, residential buildings, measures must be taken to secure these territories. They can only be secured by creating some kind of buffer zone so that any means that the enemy uses to strike us are out of range.”
It came as the local governor said on Monday that two people were killed and four more injured in Ukrainian shelling of the village of Nikolskoye in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine.
“I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, that we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime,” Putin said.
“10 years ago here, in the Red Square, on this very stage, I recalled that Crimea is often called an unsinkable aircraft carrier and it is appropriate to say that Crimea has returned to the home harbor,” Putin said.
Translation: we are going to take all Ukrainian territory and eliminate all Ukrainians. That’s the sanitary zone part. Crimea: the Kaliningradisation of Crimea.
Putin has announced a new railway line that will run from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don to Crimea via occupied Ukraine.
Speaking earlier at the rally in Red Square, Putin said a line from Rostov to the occupied cities of Donetsk, Mariupol, and Berdyansk had been restored in south and eastern Ukraine, which would now be extended to the annexed Crimean port city of Sevastopol.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia's arms exports drop due to war and sanctions-related customer decline. In its daily intelligence bulletin published on X, the ministry cited research conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which revealed that Russia's arms exports fell by 53% between 2019-2023 compared to the previous four-year period.
The European People’s party is calling for EU foreign ministers to declare that Putin is not Russia’s legitimate president.
“The EU is preparing a new package of sanctions targeting those involved in the death of Alexei Navalny. This is the right thing to do,” said Rasa Juknevičienė, a Lithuanian member of the European parliament and the EPP' group’s vice-chair in charge of foreign affairs.
“But in addition to sanctions, the EU member states should first officially declare that there have been no elections in Russia and that Vladimir Putin cannot be considered the leader of the country. Vladimir Putin is not a president, and the voting was not an election,” she stressed.
BBC News has reported that 61 criminal cases were launched by the Russian interior ministry following the presidential election.
Deputy interior minister Alexander Gorovoy has been quoted by the Moscow-based news agency saying the largest number of criminal cases were for announcing a deliberately false act of terrorism (23) and for obstructing voters in exercising their rights (21).
Gorovoy claims that ministry departments had received “1,400 statements and reports of violations and possible crimes”, and that 547 hoax bomb threats were made during the three-day election period.
Oleksandr Polianichev: "Russia has no borders," a popular motto of Russia's war of conquest, is now the official slogan of Putin's re-election spectacle. It is this message that Russian state media are celebrating tonight, and it is with this promise that Putin enters his new term.
Allied Support
WSJ: The Czech Republic has secured about 800.000 artillery shells from various suppliers around the world. It concerns 300.000 Soviet-style shells and about 500.000 Western-made shells. It has found another 700.000 that can be purchased additionally.
The first 800.000 will be delivered in batches throughout the year. And as soon as the funding is allocated, additional shells will follow. The Czech government estimates that the total purchase of 1.5 million shells will cost $3.3 billion.
Czechia to propose EU-wide grain import ban on Russia, Belarus. Czechia is planning to propose a ban on grain imports from Russia and Belarus into European Union countries at next week's European Council meeting, Czech Agriculture Minister Marek Vyborny said on March 17.
Slovenia will join the initiative of the Czech Republic to purchase and supply artillery shells to Ukraine. It will allocate €1 million. Finland will provide €30 million for the purchase of artillery shells for Ukraine within the framework of the Czech initiative. Minister Blair announced that Canada is committing over $40 million to Czechia’s initiative to purchase large-calibre ammunition rounds for Ukraine. In addition, Canada will be donating a package of night vision devices worth approximately $7.5 million.
Kosovo announced a second package of military aid to Ukraine, consisting of mortar shells, Minister of Defense of Kosovo Ejup Maqedonci reports.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will provide a new €500 million military aid package for Ukraine.
It will support Ukraine with ammunition supplies and plans to allocate 10,000 artillery shells from the Bundeswehr warehouses. The new aid package will also include 100 units of armored vehicles and 100 units of transport equipment.
In addition, Germany also delivers 180.000 155-mm artillery shells via the Czech initiative and 100.000 155-mm artillery shells which will be produced in Germany.
EU gives final approval to $5.5 billion for military aid to Ukraine. EU foreign ministers finally agreed to allocate an additional 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) in defense assistance for Ukraine in 2024 within the European Peace Facility (EPF) framework, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced on March 18.
Jens Stoltenberg was in Armenia yesterday, which marks an important twist to Armenia’s rapprochement with the West. Armenia has been a Russian ally for a very long time. Last year, the Armenians announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine on the occasion of Mrs Zelenska’s visit with authorities there.
Stoltenberg held a meeting with Prime Minister Pashinyan, where issues of strengthening Armenia-NATO cooperation were discussed. "We're interested in deepening our cooperation with NATO, and I hope that the individually-tailored program for Armenia will be accepted as soon as possible," said Pashinyan.
Critical Threats reports that Iran is likely concerned that Armenia’s deteriorating relations with Russia and outreach to the West could increase NATO’s presence along its northern border.
Borrell said he will propose that the EU uses 90% of the revenues from Russian assets frozen to buy arms for Ukraine via the European Peace Facility fund. Borrell told reporters in Brussels he would propose that the remaining 10% be transferred to the EU budget to be used to boost the capacity of the Ukrainian defence industry. He said he would submit the proposal to EU member states on Wednesday, ahead of a summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday.
FT: The EU is set to impose tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
This move aims to support EU farmers and member states, despite previous reluctance due to concerns about global food markets. The proposed tariffs include a €95-per-tonne duty on cereals, potentially increasing prices by 50%, along with 50% tariffs on oil seeds and related products. EU imports of these goods from Russia reached a record high in 2023, accounting for 1% of overall EU consumption.
Estonian PM urges Nato allies to increase defence spending to over 3% of GDP. Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has called on Nato allies to increase their defence spending to over 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Polish National Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Warsaw and Berlin will activate their coalition of armored capabilities for Ukraine, with several other European countries, including Sweden, Italy, and Britain, having expressed their readiness to participate.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis agreed to transport weapons donated by Finland for Ukraine through Romanian territory and train Ukrainian pilots and ground personnel on the F-16 at the European F-16 Training Center at the Fetesti air base.
NYT—China: Hong Kong passed sweeping security laws, thwarting decades of public resistance. Critics predict a lasting blow to the city’s partial autonomy. The legislation targets “external interference” and the theft of state secrets, with implications for businesses, journalists, civil servants and others.
CNN: Trump is unable to make $464 million bond in civil fraud case, his lawyers tell court
Former President Donald Trump can’t find an insurance company to underwrite his bond to cover the massive judgment against him in the New York attorney general’s civil fraud case, his lawyers told a New York appeals court. Trump’s attorneys said he has approached 30 underwriters to back the bond, which is due by the end of this month.
Ex-Trump aide Peter Navarro begins serving prison sentence. Peter Navarro, an ex-White House aide to former President Donald Trump, has reported to a federal prison in Miami, making history as the first former White House official to be imprisoned for a contempt of Congress conviction.
CNN: Congressional leaders announce deal to fund rest of government. Congressional leaders on Tuesday formally announced a deal to keep the rest of the government funded through the fiscal year, with the text of the legislation to be released “as soon as possible,” Speaker Mike Johnson said.
Margarita Simonyan sounds very Trumpesque in her diatribe . .. . errrr . . .monologue. "It's too bad you can;'t have more than 100% because if you could , we would!". The math isn't mathing Margarita!