Mar 21: Buonasera Mag
Day 391: Bakhmut ICC SouthAFR Germany XiPutin PutinElex Losik $350M EU Danilov UAsanctions SVB ClimateCrisis Prigozhin Macron A&Ps ISW Baker Davis Sington Lautman ABelarusianInRome Sumlenny Kyslytsya
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces attack 7 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces struck the communities of Khotin, Bilopillia, Shalyhyne, Velyka Pysarivka, Krasnopillia, Seredyna-Buda, and Esman, the Sumy Oblast military administration reported on March 19.
ISW: Ukrainian forces likely conducted localized counterattack southwest of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage published on March 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack southwest of Ivanivske, located six kilometers west of Bakhmut, and pushed Russian forces further away from the key highway in the area, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
Yevgeny Prigozhin has written to MoD Sergei Shoigu to warn that the Ukrainian army was planning an imminent offensive aimed at cutting off his forces from the main body of Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. In the letter published by his press service today, Prigozhin said the “large-scale attack” was planned for late March or the start of April.
He asked Shoigu to “take all necessary measures to prevent the Wagner private military company being cut off from the main forces of the Russian army, which will lead to negative consequences” for Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Zelensky calls ICC’s arrest warrant against Putin ‘turning point’ for Russia. “Responsibility for every strike on Ukraine, for every destroyed life, for every deported Ukrainian child,” Zelensky said. “The evil state will be held accountable for every act of terror against Ukrainians.”
South Africa aware of ‘its legal obligation’ over Putin’s ICC arrest warrant. A spokesperson for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on March 19 that the country had “noted the report on the warrant of arrest” for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin put out by the International Criminal Court two days earlier.
Minister: Germany will have to arrest Putin if he enters its territory. Germany will have to arrest Russian dictator Vladimir Putin if he enters German territory and if the International Criminal Court asks contracting states for enforcement, the country's Justice Minister Marco Buschmann has said.
China has called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to avoid "politicization and double standards" after after the tribunal issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges. During a media briefing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin also called on the ICC to "uphold an objective and impartial stance" and "respect the immunity of heads of state from jurisdiction under international law."
Julia Davis: Russian propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show went into full meltdown over the ICC's arrest warrant for Putin.
Russia’s investigative committee has said it has opened a criminal case against the prosecutor and judges at the international criminal court (ICC) in The Hague, who on Friday issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children.
Putin claims he delayed full-scale invasion of Ukraine over economic, military factors. Speaking on Russian state television on March 19, Putin laid out the reasons why, according to him, Russia didn't go for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2014, when it invaded Crimea and started a war in the eastern Donbas region.
Kremlin staff involved in Vladimir Putin’s 2024 presidential re-election campaign have been banned from using their iPhones because of concerns that the devices are vulnerable to western intelligence agencies, according to a report. An official was quoted as saying: “The iPhone is over. Either throw it away or give it to children. Everyone will have to do it in March.” The Kremlin believes iPhones are more susceptible to hacking and espionage by western specialists than other smartphones, the paper writes.
The United States approved a new, $350 million security assistance package for Ukraine. It includes ammunition for M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS and howitzers, as well as ammunition for Bradley IFVs, HARM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles, anti-tank missiles and riverine boats.
Official: Russia damaged or seized more than 1,700 fire trucks, hundreds of fire stations during full-scale war. Some of these lost assets have been damaged from constant shelling, the rest have been seized by the Russian army in occupied areas, said State Emergency Service head Serhii Kruk.
Financial Times: Explosives shortage jeopardizes EU's effort to boost shell production for Ukraine. EU member states that produce ammunition for Ukraine have faced a shortage of gunpowder, plastic explosives, and TNT.
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, has reiterated Kyiv’s demands that any future peace plan must require Russia to withdraw its troops from all Ukrainian territory.
President Zelensky has announced sanctions against hundreds of individuals and companies, including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranians associated with the production of Shahed drones. Zelensky said on March 18 that most of the more than 400 individuals and companies designated for sanctions are Russian and are involved in the defense industry, but Iranian and Syrian individuals -- "those who help terror" -- are also among the newly blacklisted.
Media: Verkhovna Rada dismisses 3 ministers. The Verkhovna Rada on March 20 dismissed Education Minister Serhiy Shkarlet, Strategic Industries Minister Pavlo Riabikin, and Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
The anti-corruption court has confirmed the confiscation of assets belonging to a prominent Russian oligarch Arkady Rotenberg. Held by nominal Swiss owners, his shares in a Ukrainian shopping mall were worth $300 million.
Czech President believes Ukraine has one attempt to carry out major counteroffensive. Czech President Petr Pavel told the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita on March 19 that Ukraine needs to launch a major counteroffensive within the next few months.
NYT: Silicon Valley Bank was under scrutiny by the Fed for over a year for risky practices and the bank received repeated warnings. It wasn’t enough. The bank was using an incorrect model as it assessed its own risks amid rising interest rates, and spent much of 2022 under a supervisory review.
The French government is to face two no-confidence motions amid street protests, strikes and roadblocks in opposition to Emmanuel Macron’s decision to push through an unpopular rise in the pension age without a parliament vote. Macron’s government has survived the first non-confidence motion.
Earth is likely to cross a critical global warming threshold within the next decade unless drastic changes are made, a major U.N. report said. The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts convened by the United Nations, says it is still possible to hold global warming to relatively safe levels, but doing so will require global cooperation, billions of dollars and big changes.
President Xi visits Putin war criminal in Moscow
Xi Jinping has arrived at the Kremlin for an informal meeting with Putin. Formal talks are scheduled for tomorrow.
China’s president Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin that Moscow and Beijing “share similar goals” and called the Russian leader his “dear friend” during an informal meeting at the Kremlin. Xi told Putin:
It is true that both of our countries share the same, or some similar goals. We have exerted efforts for the prosperity of our respective countries … we can cooperate and work together to achieve our goals.
The world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, aided by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its terms without any viable pathway to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Oleg Nikolenko, said Kyiv expects China to use its influence on Russia to put an end to the war. Kyiv is “closely” following President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia, Nikolenko said in a statement to Reuters shortly after the Chinese leader landed in Moscow for talks with his Russian counterpart.
The White House’s spokesperson, John Kirby, urged Xi Jinping to call on Vladimir Putin to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
We encourage President Xi to advocate for this exact essential key point, which must include the withdrawal of Russian forces from sovereign Ukrainian territory consistent with the UN Charter.
Visiting Moscow, Xi likely to offering Putin help in evading Western sanctions- Yahoo News
The Kremlin announced there would be the signing of “bilateral documents” and discussion of “topical issues” during meeting with the Chinese leader, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Xi’s visit to Moscow would be focused on “promoting peace.”
Meanwhile, “Chinese companies have reportedly sold rifles, drone parts, and equipment to Russian entities that could be used for military purposes, and Western intelligence agencies have stated that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia,” ISW wrote.
According to ISW analysts, Xi is expected to discuss with Putin and Russian officials potential strategies to bypass Western sanctions, which would enable the sale and provision of Chinese equipment to Russia. [continue reading]
Peter Baker, A Four-Decade Secret: The Untold Story of Sabotaging Jimmy Carter’s Re-election- NYT
It has been more than four decades, but Ben Barnes said he remembers it vividly. His longtime political mentor invited him on a mission to the Middle East. What Mr. Barnes said he did not realize until later was the real purpose of the mission: to sabotage the re-election campaign of the president of the United States.
It was 1980 and Jimmy Carter was in the White House, bedeviled by a hostage crisis in Iran that had paralyzed his presidency and hampered his effort to win a second term. Mr. Carter’s best chance for victory was to free the 52 Americans held captive before Election Day. That was something that Mr. Barnes said his mentor was determined to prevent.
What happened next Mr. Barnes has largely kept secret for nearly 43 years. Mr. Connally, he said, took him to one Middle Eastern capital after another that summer, meeting with a host of regional leaders to deliver a blunt message to be passed to Iran: Don’t release the hostages before the election. Mr. Reagan will win and give you a better deal.
“History needs to know that this happened,” Mr. Barnes, who turns 85 next month, said in one of several interviews, his first with a news organization about the episode. “I think it’s so significant and I guess knowing that the end is near for President Carter put it on my mind more and more and more. I just feel like we’ve got to get it down some way.” [continue reading]
