Mar 21: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Police: Russia attacked Kharkiv with Kh-35 anti-ship missile. Russia used a Kh-35 anti-ship missile in an attack on Kharkiv on March 20 that killed five civilians, Volodymyr Tymoshko, the head of the National Police in Kharkiv Oblast, reported on social media.
The Russian attack hit an eight-storey building and a factory, the head of the investigative unit of the regional police said. The attack also sparked a fire across more than 1,000 square metres.
Throughout March, Sumy Oblast has been reporting a steadily increasing number of Russian strikes. Sumy is hundreds of miles from the front lines, and Russia's attacks appear to be targeting civilian areas and civilian infrastructure.
Zelensky: Russia fires over 1,000 missiles, bombs, drones at civilians so far in March. Russia has launched 130 missiles, over 320 attack drones, and almost 900 guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian civilians since the beginning of March, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on March 19.
Oleksandr Filchakov, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast prosecutor's office, said on March 14 that Russia had used nearly 50 North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which is five times more than the numbers announced by Pak.
Russia has tortured and arbitrarily detained people in occupied Ukraine, creating a “climate of fear” and suppressing Ukrainian identity, a UN report said on Wednesday. The report, which the UN human rights office said was based on more than 2,300 interviews, accused Moscow of “committing widespread violations” of human rights law.
The UN report also said Russia had tried to suppress Ukrainian identity among children, replacing the curriculum in schools with a Russian one which sought to “justify” Moscow’s invasion, the report added. UN high commissioner for human rights Volker Türk said in a release linked to the report, that “the actions of the Russian Federation” had resulted in “profound and long-lasting consequences for Ukrainian society as a whole”.
ICC chief on Putin: ‘Heaven's vengeance is slow but sure.’ The new Head of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Tomoko Akane told Kyodo News on March 20 that "Heaven's vengeance is slow but sure" when asked what fate awaits Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Military reports strengthening fortifications in Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces are strengthening the fortifications of the first, second, and third lines of defense in Sumy Oblast bordering Russia amid intensified attacks, Vadym Mysnyk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military's Northern Operational Command, told Ukrinform on March 18.
This is not a good look. Jake Sullivan pays a surprise visit to Kyiv: "From our perspective, we are confident we will get this done, we will get this aid to Ukraine."
On the surface, it’s a reassurance that the United States hasn’t abandoned Ukraine in its time of need. The very fact that Sullivan has been forced to go to Ukraine to underscore this fact means that the Administration is worried about its image now. You can thank Sullivan and his cadre of advisors for the American drip strategy.
Combat Situation Update
Umerov: Ukraine presents its plan for 2024 at Ramstein. Kyiv presented its key allies a war plan for 2024 as more military assistance have been announced during the 20th Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on March 19.
Shmyhal: Ukraine hopes to get enough shells by April. "We hope that this Czech initiative, which Luxembourg joined, will help us, and beginning since (from) April we will have enough ammunition to deter our frontline," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
Anti-Kremlin militia claims fighting ongoing in Belgorod Oblast. One of the anti-Kremlin militias fighting in Russia's Belgorod Oblast claimed that fighting is ongoing in the region and that it is continuing to take prisoners.
Euractiv: Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO in the next decade, Poland’s top general, Wiesław Kukuła, said during a debate organised to mark the 25th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the world’s largest military alliance.
“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation,” Kaupo Rosin, Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief, recently argued, as reported by Reuters.
Russia may be anticipating a conflict with NATO within “the next decade or so”, said Rosin, noting that due to the current war in Ukraine, an imminent military attack remains “highly unlikely.”
Viktor Kovalenko: As was expected by many Western national security analysts, after the re-election Putin ordered to increase the number of troops in the Russian military forces. His defense minister Shoigu announced this presidential decree before the generals today.
In particular, Russia will create 2 new ground armies (more than 80,000 total) and 30 additional military formations, including 16 brigades (from 32,000 to 128,000 troops total) and 14 divisions (from 128,000 to 560,000 total). Simple calculations show that the proposed boost in "cannon fodder" is a minimum of 240,000 and a maximum of 768,000.
Last year, the Ukrainian military intelligence warned that the expected number of the post-election Russian mobilization would be about 500,000. That's why former Commander-in-Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhny alarmed Volodymyr Zelensky's government about the urgent need to conscript at least 400,000 new Ukrainian soldiers to get ready.
Unfortunately, General Zaluzhny was discharged. The Ukrainian Parliament is still struggling with 4,000+ amendments to the new mobilization law which is nowhere near being adopted. So, new battle-ready Ukrainian recruits might not come to the theater in time. Instead, Kyiv sends signals to Europe about the possible deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine.
Behind the Lines
Interview with Sergej Sumlenny about Scholz, Taurus, Ukraine-support, artillery shells, etc. When Sergej isn’t commenting on the state of affairs in Germany, he’s running back and forth from Germany to Ukraine to bring most needed equipment and other kit, which he pays for through fund-raising.
Media: Kuleba expected to visit India later in March. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is expected to visit India later this month, marking the first trip by a Ukrainian high-level official to the country since the outbreak of the full-scale war, The Hindu reported on March 19, citing an undisclosed diplomatic source.
New Delhi, which has traditionally had close economic and defence ties with Moscow, has so far refused to criticise Russia for the February 2022 invasion, instead stepping up purchases of Russian oil to record levels.
Indian PM Narendra Modi held separate phone calls on Wednesday with Putin and Zelensky and discussed strengthening ties with both. The Indian government said in its own statement that Modi had reiterated India’s “consistent position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward” in the Ukraine crisis.
Russian, Belarusian athletes barred from Paris Olympics opening ceremony. Athletes from Russia and Belarus will not be allowed to take part in the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics this summer, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced on March 19.
Meanwhile in Russia
Reuters: Putin to visit China in May. This might be Putin's first trip abroad after he secured his fifth term in office in the recent presidential election, broadly regarded as rigged and unfair.
Russia’s ‘exit tax’ nets Kremlin $385 million from foreign firms in 2024 alone. A Russian ‘exit tax’ on foreign companies leaving the country has netted the Kremlin $385 million since the start of 2024, already surpassing predictions for the full year, Reuters reported on March 20.
Foreign soldiers captured by Ukraine say they travelled to escape poverty from homes in Asia, the Caribbean and Africa but were tricked into fighting for Russia on the frontlines. At a recent press event organised by Ukrainian officials, organisers defined the men as “mercenaries” from the “global south” and said they were treating them the same as Russian PoWs.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC in Moscow: In the Kremlin hall where Tsars were crowned we saw Putin thank supporters. When I asked RT’s Margarita Simonyan if she really thought Putin faced a serious challenger in the election she replied: “Is there a need for a serious opponent? Why?
Me: In the past year, Putin’s public appearances all seem to feature large adoring crowds in ornate, scripted, theatrical settings. During the election, he took on the mantle of the Western discourse of ‘elections’ and ‘democracy’ for Western audiences. The pageantry is for both audiences: the Tsar is here.
Estonia expels Russian Embassy employee. Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said, "With its actions, the Russian Embassy has interfered in the internal matters of Estonia in an unacceptable way."
Moldova expels Russian diplomat after Russian election held in Transnistria. Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi announced on March 19 that a Russian diplomat had been expelled from the country after Russian presidential elections were held in Transnistria, a region internationally recognized as part of Moldova.
Ukraine is working to secure “a strong and far-reaching step” towards membership of Nato at the military alliance’s Washington summit in July, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said.
“We think that Ukraine meets the main criteria of membership, which is the capacity to defend Nato borders. That’s what we are doing by defending Ukraine,” he told reporters.
“ … Let me say this, we are working hard to make a strong and far-reaching step towards Ukrainian membership in Nato at the Washington summit.”
Beijing says it will not join peace talks in Switzerland until the EU stops sending millitary supplies to Ukraine.
First, Li Hui brought Russia's unacceptable peace talk preconditions to Europe (that Russia will only join after the EU stops deliveries). And now (as per POLITICO scoop), China says it will visit Switzerland only after Russia is allowed to sit at the table, and boycott otherwise.
Unless Russia's preconditions changed (highly unlikely, Putin hopes to gain much in Ukraine this year), this essentially means Beijing is fully backing its position. "Officials told POLITICO recently that China is trying to persuade Europe to let Russia sit at the table for future peace talks, potentially in Switzerland — or Beijing will boycott such meetings."
Allied Support
Charles Michel: ‘High time to put EU's economy on war footing‘. "Now that we are facing the biggest security threat since the Second World War, it is high time we take radical and concrete steps to be defense-ready and put the EU’s economy on a “war footing”," European Council President Charles Michel said.
Evelyn Farkas on the BBC about discussed the impact of Russia’s continued war in Ukraine—including the risk it presents to American security.
The EU Commission has disbursed the first €4.5bn of support under the EU’s new Ukraine Facility. In a statement published on Wednesday by the commission, its president Ursula von der Leyen said:
Today is a good day for Ukraine, as more EU funds are flowing to meet urgent needs.
The Commission has just paid to Ukraine a first tranche of €4.5bn from the Facility. This payment, in the form of bridge financing, is crucial to help Ukraine maintain the functioning of the State in this difficult moment.
Ukraine has also delivered the Ukraine plan. This success is all the more impressive, since it is only 19 days ago that the Ukraine Facility entered into force. The plan maps out how Ukraine can get back to rapid growth and start to recover the losses that the war has caused. With it, Ukraine has laid a solid foundation for the EU’s support, right up until the end of 2027.”
Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal: “After fruitful discussions in Brussels, I'm pleased to share good news. Today we received a first tranche in amount of €4.5 billion through the Ukraine Facility Exceptional Bridge Financing. Grateful to Ursula von der Leyen for her invaluable support. This strengthens our economic and financial stability.”
Lithuania has also allocated money to buy artillery shells via the Czech initiative for Ukraine. Spain has already sent €190 million worth of various types of (heavy) equipment to Ukraine and is preparing 20 more Leopard 2A4 tanks.
Pentagon launches website to oversee US military aid to Ukraine. The U.S. Defense Department's Office of the Inspector General on March 19 announced that it had launched a website to track U.S. military and other assistance to Ukraine.
PM Shmyhal arrives in Luxembourg, meets with Luxembourgish counterpart. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that he and his Luxembourgish counterpart Luc Frieden would discuss Luxembourg's support for Ukraine and the potential future confiscation of Russian assets.
More from the mad Agent Orange: Trump says US won't leave NATO if member states 'play fair.' Former U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will remain in NATO and come to the aid of a bloc member if they are attacked so long as other countries “play fair” and pay their share of maintaining the alliance.
Here’s our Scott Lucas talking about the so-called interview: ‘It wasn’t an interview! It was one politician handing over your channel to another politician for 25 minutes.’
Lev Parnas, former associate of Rudy Giuliani, testifies on a coordinated effort to falsely accuse the Bidens of corruption in Ukraine so that Donald Trump could win the 2020 election.
Me: Parnas’s testimony is newsworthy but I’ll reserve my comments for the time being.
Thank you!
Nigel Farage - the new Tucker Carlson?
The piece about the brainwashing of Ukrainian children :(