Mar 22: Buonasera Mag
Day 392: Avdiivka Putin Shoigu Rosselkhzbank Medvedev $100B Memorial SOVA NOR Joly Losik Kishida Moldova A&P Carroll VDL Rosenberg Tenzer Zaryn Lau AtlanticCouncil Snyder UWCongress Iacoboni Seddon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Don’t laugh…stop…come on…stop laughing.
Putin said he and Xi “spent a lot of time” and “put a lot of attention” discussing Beijing’s plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. Putin, speaking at a news conference after talks with China’s president Xi, said:
We believe that many points of the Chinese peace plan correlate to the point of view of the Russian Federation and many of these points can be adopted in the west and in Kyiv.
Xi Jinping said the pair have signed statements that “fully reflect the nature of Russia-China relations”, which he described as being at “their highest point” in the “whole history of our two countries”. Russia and China are “tied together” and enjoy “good neighbourly relations”, he said, adding that Moscow was in “constant contact” with Beijing.
This allows us to find, even in most complex situations, solutions to the problems and we are able to discuss all current international issues.
Putin, speaking at the joint news conference with President Xi, said Beijing’s proposal to end the Ukraine conflict could be the basis for a peaceful settlement – when the west is ready for it.
Xi invited the Russian leader to visit China this year, extending the invitation during a meeting today with the Russian prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin.
Stories we’re following…
Explosion in Crimea destroys Russian Kalibr missiles. An explosion in the Crimean city of Dzhankoi destroyed Russian Kalibr cruise missiles during their railway transportation late on March 20, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate.
General Staff: Russia launches 9 missiles, 21 airstrikes in the past day. Russian forces launched 9 missiles and 21 airstrikes in the past day, according to a morning update from Ukraine’s General Staff on March 21.
Geolocated footage posted on Mar. 19 shows that Russian forces have advanced in southwestern Bakhmut,... about 7km NW of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove, and in northern Bakhmut near the AZOM complex. [continue reading]
Suspilne reports that the city of Chasiv Yar was targeted on Tuesday. It wrote on its official Telegram channel:
On 21 March, the Russian military shelled Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut. As a result of the shelling, more than two dozen buildings were damaged – more than 10 private, high-rise buildings, and a school, Serhii Chaus, head of the city military administration of Chasiv Yar, told Suspilne.
Ukraine's military: Avdiivka may soon become 'second Bakhmut.' Russian forces are trying to surround the city of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi said on March 20, adding it could soon become "the second Bakhmut."
Kremlin Already Searching for Putin's Replacement: Intelligence Official. Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, said in recent remarks that the search comes as "the circle around Putin is narrowing." Putin is becoming "more and more toxic," even within Russian borders, according to Yusov.
"Within the Kremlin, there is more and more dissatisfaction with what is happening," Yusov said. "There is an increasingly gloomy understanding of the prospects, specifically the geopolitical catastrophe of the Putin regime. Thus, the search for Putin's successor is already underway."
Prigozhin intensified his attack on Shoigu, calling the minister’s son-in-law a “scumbag blogger.” In an audio message published on his social media channels, Prigozhin compared Aik Gasparyan, a Wagner fighter and convicted armed robber who he called a “hero” with Shoigu’s son-in-law, the fitness blogger Alexei Stolaryov. He is the husband of Ksenia Shoigu, the daughter of the Russian defence minister who is believed to be close with her father.
Moscow is again seeking sanctions exemptions for the state agriculture lender Rosselkhozbank, threatening to withdraw from the grain deal with Turkey after May 18 if the bank isn’t reconnected to the SWIFT system. The Kremlin has sought this for months already.
Russian ex-president Medvedev threatens missile strike against Hague court after Putin arrest warrant. "It's quite possible to envision a scenario where a Russian ship... could strategically strike the Hague courthouse with a hypersonic Onyx missile," Dmitry Medvedev said. (he was drunk…again)
To collect their diplomas, Moscow Aviation Institute graduates are reportedly being forced to sign army-recruitment-office summons. When they appear, they’re promptly pressured to volunteer as contract soldiers to fight in Ukraine.
"Russia has written off debts of African nations amounting to more than $20 billion," President Vladimir Putin said today. "The mutual trade turnover is growing from year to year, which reached almost $18 bln as of the last year-end," the Russian leader said.
Russian residents’ cash holdings exceed $100 billion for the first time: in other words, the import of banknotes exceeded their export, as per data via the Russian Central Bank.
Police in Moscow carried out large-scale coordinated raids on the homes of several members of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning civil rights group Memorial on Tuesday morning, the organization has announced on Telegram. The searches began at around 7:30 a.m. Moscow time and are believed to be linked to a recently launched criminal investigation into the group’s alleged “rehabilitation of Nazism.” Memorial’s lawyers said they were prevented from gaining access to Memorial staff by security agents.
New narrative: A slideshow and audio recording leaked from a classroom in Russia reveals that schoolchildren are being told that masked Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea robbed civilians during the Maidan Revolution in Kyiv, leading locals to form self-defense units before Russian troops ever arrived. The standardized lesson also emphasizes that the Soviet transfer of Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR was “illegal”.
Russia’s Justice Ministry has filed a lawsuit seeking the dissolution of the SOVA Center. SOVA Center for Information and Analysis is a Moscow-based Russian nonprofit organization that was founded in October 2002 by a group of people working for the Panorama Center for Information and Research and the Moscow Helsinki Group. SOVA Center conducts informational and research work on such topics as nationalism and xenophobia, relations between the churches and the secular society, and political radicalism.
Ukraine receives Leopard tanks from Norway. Norway has delivered eight German-made Leopard 2 main battle tanks and four support vehicles to Ukraine, Norwegian Armed Forces reported on March 20.
“Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly and operate weapons systems on the F-16 in less than six months. The sooner we have all the help we need, the sooner we win this war, the more lives we save.” —General Serhii Holubtsov, chief of aviation of Ukraine’s air force.
Collaborator who oversaw torture in Kherson Oblast confirmed dead. Serhiy Moskalenko, who helped Russian troops kidnap and torture Ukrainians in Kherson Oblast, was identified on March 20 by Ukraine's military intelligence as the collaborator who was killed in a March 17 car explosion in the region.
Russia’s FM said it had protested to Canada’s top diplomat in Moscow over comments by the Canadian foreign minister about “regime change” in Russia. On 10 March Canada’s foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly said
“We’re able to see how much we’re isolating the Russian regime right now – because we need to do so economically, politically and diplomatically – and what are the impacts also on society and how much we’re seeing potential regime change in Russia.”
Belarusian blogger Ihar Losik (now serving a 15-year prison sentence for supposed “mass riot organization”) attempted suicide on Monday and is now reportedly hospitalized, amid an extended hunger strike, he slashed his wrists and neck.
Moldova to sanction 25 individuals complicit in Russian invasion of Ukraine - MFA. The Moldova authorities will introduce restrictive measures against about 25 persons, including citizens of the Russian Federation, involved in the invasion of Ukraine. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, who spoke in an interview with Europa Liberă, Ukrinform reports.
Kishida and Zelensky are expected to discuss Japanese support for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Tokyo joined the US and other countries in imposing sanctions on Russia, prompting the Kremlin to add Japan to its list of “unfriendly” countries.
The leader of the Eastern Orthodox Church said on Tuesday he will work with Lithuania’s government to potentially establish a new branch in the Baltic nation to ensure that believers would no longer be under the sole supervision of Moscow.
Several European foreign ministers called Monday for the EU to sanction oligarchs involved in “destabilization attempts” in Moldova and Georgia, amid rising fears of Russian interference. “These two countries are facing destabilization attempts which require our greatest vigilance, and might justify that we start considering to target those responsible for these attempts,” -French FMColonna.
Bloomberg: Hungary vetoes joint EU statement on Putin’s ICC arrest warrant. Hungary prevented European Union member states from releasing a joint statement on the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, Bloomberg reported, citing sources privy to the information.
As EU affairs ministers meet today to prepare for EU leaders’ European Council on Thursday and Friday, they will be working hard to focus on the summit’s supposed topics — economic competitiveness and ammunition for Ukraine. But the fight flaring up again between German and French officials over the future of cars and nuclear energy could overshadow or disrupt the EUCO.
Oil produced from Kazakhstan's "Kashagan" field has been transported for the first time along the Aktau-Baku route through the Caspian Sea bypassing Russia. The transportation of oil along the new route was carried out by the tanker "Akademik Khoshbakht Yusifzade" belonging to the Marine Transport Fleet of "Azerbaijan Khazar Sea Shipping" CJSC (ASCO).
NYC bracing for Trump’s possible indictment
Workers erected barricades around a Manhattan courthouse as New York City braced for a possible indictment of Donald Trump over an alleged hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign.
Stanislaw Żaryn, Poland’s authority on cyberspace security:
The motion to arrest Putin is a good decision. The International Criminal Court has formalized the fact that Putin is responsible for murders and other crimes.
The ICC's conclusion is a step in the right direction and a necessity to think about holding Putin accountable for a number of crimes.
At the same time, however, it is necessary to remind - the war against Ukraine is not, as many suggest, "Putin's war". Russia is leading the war and the Russians are supporting it.
Focusing on the responsibility of Putin alone is a mistake. We are dealing with a criminal regime (Russia) supported by a society.
Even a potential (now rather impossible) change in the Kremlin and a palace coup will not change anything. Russia is ruled by a regime based on the criminal services of the Soviet era. Personal games and moving pawns won't change anything.
The West must remember this. Especially when someone decides that this or that dictator needs to be sacrificed...
Stuart Lau, Why Xi Jinping is still Vladimir Putin’s best friend- Politico
Their bromance began with vodka and sandwiches a decade ago. Now China’s president is visiting Putin after a year of war.
[W]hy is China’s leader so determined to stand by Putin despite the inevitable backlash, at a time when the West is increasingly suspicious of Beijing’s military aims — and scrutinizing prized Chinese companies like TikTok — more closely than ever?
For a start, Beijing’s worldview requires it to stay strategically close to Russia: As Beijing’s leaders see it, the U.S. is blocking China’s path to global leadership, aided by European governments, while most of its own geographical neighbors — from Japan and South Korea to Vietnam and India — are increasingly skeptical rather than supportive.
“The Chinese people are not prone to threats. Paper tigers such as the U.S. would definitely not be able to threaten China,” declared a commentary on Chinese state news agency Xinhua previewing Xi’s trip to Russia. The same article slammed Washington for threatening to sanction China if it provided Russia with weapons for its invasion of Ukraine. “The more the U.S. wants to crush the two superpowers, China and Russia, together … the closer China and Russia lean on each other.”
Programming notes…
How can the United States and its Western allies help support freedom and self-determination in Belarus? What effect has Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine had on Belarusian democratic opposition and civil society?
Timothy Snyder, The Making of Modern Ukraine- Lesson 7- The Rise of Moscovite Power
One way to understand the special trajectory of Kyiv is to compare it to the other outcomes of the Mongol invasions. As we have seen, most of the territory of Rus, including Kyiv, became part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. The lands of far western Rus, Galicia and Volhynia, remained as states for about a century before being absorbed by Poland and Lithuania. The Crimean peninsula, in the south of what is now Ukraine, was never actually part of Rus, became the site of a Mongol successor state.
The same was true of the lands of the northeast of Rus, centered around the new town of Moscow. While Kyiv yielded its civilization to Vilnius, Moscow was a site of tribute collection for the Mongols, and its rulers were chosen accordingly. Once these rulers were able to assert themselves independently, they quickly established a huge new state, expanding first to the south into largely Muslim territories, then eastward across Asia, mainly in search of furs. Its highly centralized state thus enriched and empowered, Moscow could turn towards Europe in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.