Mar 22: E-Stories

Day757 MassiveRuAttacks DniproDam Kharkiv Kyiv CombatSit BehindLines Vogel InRussia Allies EUSummit US A&P ERIC NoelReport UKDef ISW CDS Trump

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

My apologies in advance for the reduced length of and incomplete information in today’s post. I was expecting to put it out tomorrow morning but the news over night of the massive strike against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure needs attention.

The DniproHES Dam in Zaporizhzhia was hit, as well as other infrastructure. The Dam is in the proximity of the ZNPP. For now, it is holding, and the authorities are assessing the extent of damages to the hydroelectric facilities across Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians spent the night in the underground shelters in Kyiv and in other cities. It was the largest missile strike against Ukraine to date.

Polish PM, Donald Tusk, is right: It’s now time for less talk, and much more action on the part of our leaders. If you are American, please call your representatives to get the Floor Bill passed. Please see the post below for contact information.

Maria Avdeeva: Hitting largest Ukrainian hydro power plant and the dam is nothing less than using weapons of mass destruction, akin to nuclear weapons.

Stories we’re following…

This morning, the Russians have hit Ukraine with a massive attack on its infrastructure. More reporting later as the extent of the damages have been assessed.

Most likely the biggest missile/shahed strike on Ukraine so far in this war. Massive damage to infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhya, the cities closest to Russia.

Kharkiv electricity facilities hit by 15 ballistic missiles from Russia, plunging the city into total blackout. Water supply disrupted, no city transportation.

The Dnipro Dam: if the dam of the DniproHES, a hydroelectric power station, breaks or collapses, the water level in some parts of the flood zone will reach 8-12 metres, for roughly 4 to 7 hours, and drop back to normal levels in 2-4 days. This is approximately 4-5 floors of an apartment building.

The missile strike hit a trolleybus which was passing the road on the dam, killing commuters on board.

Yesterday…

Kyiv was under a massive attack during the night on Mar 21: the Russians fired hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and cruise missiles. Residential areas have been hit, including a kindergarten. 13 people have been injured.

"No Russian ships were involved in this morning missile attack, they have been at base points for 2 weeks. Some even for a month already," Cpt. Natalya Humenyuk, spokeswoman for Operational Command South, reported.

President Zelensky’s statement about the Russian terrorist attack against Kyiv:

Every day, every night there is such terror. The world unity is able to stop it when it helps us with air defense systems. Russian terrorists do not have missiles that can avoid the protection of the Patriots and other leading world systems.

Now this protection is needed here in Ukraine. From Kyiv to Kharkiv, from Sumy to Kherson, from Odesa to Donetsk region. This is quite possible if our partners have enough political will.

We must show that terror is always a loser. We must prove to Russia that it will be forced to accept normal free life in Ukraine. We need the support of our partners. And I am grateful to everyone in the world who really helps.

About 40% of all equipment at Ukrainian Thermal Power Plants was damaged by Russian attacks.

"This heating season was characterized by quite a lot of preparation, quite a tense passage, but the most efficient completion. We survived the winter without blackouts and power outages," said Yevhenii Harkavyi, Technical Director of PJSC Centrenergo.

The Freedom of Russia Legion claims it has liberated the village of Gorkovsky, in an area of Belgorod. Missile strike against Belgorod continued yesterday, and during the night.

• Authorities said on Wednesday that Belgorod would be expanding its closure of schools and colleges amid a major evacuation plan. The measures were announced a day after Gladkov unveiled plans to evacuate about 9,000 children from the region.

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Combat Situation Update

"The Russians themselves report in public sources that at least two aircraft were damaged at Engels Air Base. We will be cautious for now, we will clarify that there is damage as a result of this incident, of course, and the data is being collected," GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov said.

Russia continues to redeploy Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, Ukraine promises ‘new steps’ to target it. Russia is continuing the redeployment of its Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea to the relative safety of Novorossiysk after yet more successful strikes on its ships, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported on March 21.

ISW: Economic, military indicators suggest Russia is preparing for large-scale war with NATO. Although not an imminent threat, the ISW assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin's emphasis on growing Russia's economic and military capabilities is an indication that Russia is gearing up for conflict beyond "a protracted war in Ukraine."

18 Dutch F-16s have been made available for use in Romania for training. Among those trained are Ukrainian pilots. 24 other Dutch F-16s are intended for delivery to Ukraine. Part of that group is now being prepared, The Dutch Ministry of Defense reports.

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Behind the Lines

The Big Port of St. Petersburg stopped handling saltpeter amid drone attacks. Tthe authorities plan to move the transshipment of saltpeter outside the city, likely to Ust-Luga. For St. Petersburg, this means a loss of 3 million tons of cargo per year.

Nathlie Vogel—Measures of Demoralisation: This is a recording of the Marathon event in support of Ukraine that was jointly run in Berlin on 15th March 2024 by the European Resilience Initiative Center and Silicon Curtain.

Defense Ministry: Ukraine plans to open 27 new recruitment centers in first half of 2024. Ministry of Defense advisor on recruiting issues Oleksiy Bezhevets announced on March 19 that 27 new-type recruitment centers are planned to be opened in big cities and regional centers in the first half of 2024, the Defense Ministry's press service reported.

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Meanwhile in Russia

Putin orders FSB to hunt Russians who fight for Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all Russians who fight for Ukraine must be tracked down and "punished...without any statute of limitations, wherever they may be located."

Russia threatens to target US spy satellites made by SpaceX. Russia said on March 20 that U.S. spy satellites launched in collaboration with private companies such as SpaceX would be a “legitimate target for retaliatory measures, including military ones.”

Russia’s ‘exit tax’ nets Kremlin $385 million from foreign firms in 2024 alone. A Russian ‘exit tax’ on foreign companies leaving the country has netted the Kremlin $385 million since the start of 2024, already surpassing predictions for the full year, Reuters reported on March 20.

Russia accuses Olympic Committee of ‘racism and neo-Nazism’ over opening ceremony decision. The Kremlin has accused the International Olympic Committee (IOC) of “racism and neo-Nazism” over its decision to bar athletes from Russia and Belarus from participating in the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics this summer.

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Allied Support

Make Russia Pay: “Make Russia pay”, a campaign to use Russian frozen assets under sanctions, is now a reality. The measure was delayed by legal concerns but now, after months of political negotiation, the E.U.’s executive branch has found a way.

How it works: Over $217 billion in Russian central bank assets are held in the E.U., but Russia has not been able to access that money, and the cash it generates, because of sanctions. Under the E.U. plan, 97 percent of profits generated by frozen Russian assets as of Feb. 15 would go to Ukraine.

Hungary is set to block the EU Commission's proposal to allocate 90% of proceeds of frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Budapest argues that the funds should be allocated for anything but arming Ukraine.

Shmyhal submits Ukraine reform plan to European Commission. "This is an important step for the implementation of reforms and financial stability on Ukraine's path to the EU," Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on X.

Poland will contribute logistically as well as financially to a Czech-led plan to boost ammunition supplies to Ukraine via purchases outside Europe, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Radosław Sikorski, said.

Ukraine has received $1.5 billion dollars from Canada. These are important funds that will help the Ukrainian government finance the deficit, including social programs to help Ukrainians, Prime Minister Shmyhal reports.

Australia has joined the drone coalition for Ukraine which will provide drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Defense Minister Richard Marles made the announcement in a joint press conference with UK Minister of Defense Grant Shapps.

Hope: Despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz's rejection of sending Taurus to Ukraine, Thorsten Frei, Parliamentary Secretary of the CDU/CSU, expects the SPD politician to agree to the delivery of the cruise missiles to Ukraine at some point. "I can certainly well imagine it. Because it seems to me to be undisputed that the Taurus is the cruise missile that would best meet Ukraine's needs," he said.

Pentagon: Recent $300 million in US aid was 'onetime' deal, Congress must approve further funding. The $300 million was the first tranche of U.S. aid since December 2023 and was only something that the Pentagon was "able to find" based on savings from already completed contracts, General Pat Ryder said.

The discharge petition to force a vote on the supplemental bill that includes aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel has gained 8 (all Democrats) more votes, totalling 185 out of 218 needed.

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EU Summit

The EU summit centres on a packed agenda including Ukraine, the Middle East, approval of Bosnia and Herzegovina as an EU accession candidate and agriculture.

• On Ukraine leaders will discuss how to boost military support with fresh proposals to use the interest generated by €190bn held in frozen Russian assets.

• The question of long term defence funding with suggestions that the EU needs at least €100bn to be able to build capacity to fend off a potential attack by Russia is on the table.

• Defence bonds, on which the leaders’ room is divided, is one option, as is raising money on the capital markets or, the least popular option is raising money from taxes.

President Zelensky addressed EU leaders via videoconference, calling for more help with air defences and ammunition, as well as progress on Ukraine’s path toward European integration. Most important aspects: air defence, artillery ammunition, Europe’s defence self-sufficiency, European political unity, and frozen Russian assets.

Roberta Metsola, the EU parliament president, issued a warning ahead of the June European elections. In a speech to EU leaders, she said “this election will be a test of our systems.” She added:

My appeal here is to resist the temptation in a difficult campaign to blame Brussels for all that is wrong and give no credit where it is due.

We need to be open and honest about our successes - but also where we could have done better. Where we did not match the expectations of our people. Where people still feel left behind. Where our bureaucracy has pushed people away.

Our industry must be part of the equation. Our farmers have to be a part of the equation. Our young people must be part of the equation. People must have confidence in the process, they must have access to tools that allow them to make the shift and they must be able to afford it. Otherwise, it will not succeed. And if misunderstood, it risks driving more people into political disenfranchisement and allow them to retreat to the comfort of the extremes.

That would simply give fuel to those actors who still see Europe as a threat. Who would like nothing better than for us to become weaker.

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Trump is running out of time. This may be all an extravagant ploy and he will be able to come up with the funds necessary to pay off his fine. We’ll see what happens.

In the meantime, he’s taken to his social media platform and has been ranting for days on end. Why any American thinks this is normal behaviour in a once-head of state, I will never understand.

I sincerely hope that he will continue with these screeds and insane public comments at his rallies as I think that may turn off some of the persuadable voters.

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