Mar 23: Buonasera Mag
Day 393: Rzhyshchiv Odesa Bakhmut Kishida Prigozhin OceanPlaza Kerzhaev China-RU IMF USIntel Tranistria Egypt Germany TwitterData A&P 60Minutes Gic Knowlton Luc StateDept Cepa Amanpour Reuters UAWorld
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
The success of Ukrainian forces on the land, in the sky and at sea really brings peace closer. Full compliance with the sanctions regime against Russia really restores the force of the UN Charter. Global unity can restore global stability.
Stories we’re following…
A Russian drone strike in Rzhyshchiv (Kyiv region) killed three people and left seven, including a child, injured. It was reported that “two dormitories and an educational facility” were hit over night on March 22. One of the victims was “an ambulance driver who came to the call”.
Russia strikes Odesa with missiles, injuring 3. Russian troops fired four Kh-59 missiles at Ukraine's southern city of Odesa late on March 21, according to Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak. Ukrainian air defense shot down two missiles, but the other two hit the city, damaging a three-story building and wounding three people, said Yermak.
On March 22, Zaporizhzhia came under Russian missile attack. Andrii Yermak tweeted that, “Residential buildings and Khortytsia island are under enemy fire.” Khortytsia island is the largest island on the Dnieper River, and it lies within the boundaries of the city of Zaporizhzhia, through which the Dnieper River flows.
Russian attack groups are trying to advance from the outskirts of Bakhmut to the center of the city, but the Defense Forces are working and destroying them 24/7, - Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Ukrainian military downs 16 drones overnight on March 22. The Ukrainian military downed 16 out of 21 Shahed-type drones amid Russia's attack against Ukraine overnight on March 22, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
UK Defense Ministry: 'Realistic possibility' Russia is losing momentum in Bakhmut. There is a "realistic possibility" that the Russian military is losing momentum in Bakhmut, with the Russian Defense Ministry transferring units to other sectors, the U.K. Defense Ministry said.
Xi-Putin fallout: Russia is ready to increase the supply of natural resources to China, President Vladimir Putin said after a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Kremlin. Russia, as Putin said, intends to provide "uninterrupted oil supplies" to China, as well as to sharply increase gas exports, with the revival of the Power of Siberia Gas2 project. Russia is offering China natural resources in exchange for support the Kremlin sees as critical to continuing the war with Ukraine, a Kremlin source told the Financial Times.
“The logic of events dictates that we are fully becoming a resource colony of China,” the FT source says. – Our servers will be from Huawei. <...> China will receive gas through the Power of Siberia. By the end of 2023, the yuan will be our main trading currency.”
Prigozhin states he wants to become the commander of the Special Military Operation- the war in Ukraine:
"Today it became known to me that in the near future there will be a replacement of the Commander of the SMO due to the fact that there are no serious breakthroughs and there are constant problems with the supply of our soldiers. I am seriously considering nominating my candidacy to the commander of the SMO and leading our country to victory ASAP. If the people support my initiative and elect me as the commander of the SMO, I give my word as an officer, to take Kyiv in 12 days.”
Meduza- ICC Decision- What does the Kremlin think? The decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin was hailed by the Kremlin as the West’s “most unexpected move,” according to Meduza sources close to the Russian presidential administration. According to two interlocutors of the publication, the Russian authorities were not ready for this situation.
Self-described ‘non-existent’ anti-Putin partisan movement Black Bridge claims responsibility for fire that killed four at FSB Border Service building.
Court confiscates Russian oligarchs' shares in Ocean Plaza mall. Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court ruled on March 20 in favor of the Justice Ministry's lawsuit to confiscate the shares of several Russian oligarchs in Kyiv's Ocean Plaza shopping mall.
A Russian soldier, Klim Kerzhaev – a 25-year-old commander from Moscow, who allegedly shot a civilian in an extraordinary attack caught on camera by a Ukrainian drone is being accused of war crimes in absentia by the Ukrainian police. The dossier of evidence against him includes phone calls between the soldier and his wife and friend intercepted during a months-long investigation into the Russian attack near the city of Izium last June, and drone footage.
ISW: Evidence suggests Putin has not been able to secure no-limits bilateral partnership with China. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a joint statement on deepening partnership and strategic cooperation on March 21, which stressed that Russian–Chinese relations are "at the highest level in history." The Institute for the Study of War indicated in their latest report that the commitments made by Xi and Putin were "notably lopsided."
After a year of war in Ukraine, China and Russia have grown closer together in the information space, often parroting each other's talking points across state-owned media as part of a wider strategy to undermine the West, a new report finds. The yearlong study by the German Marshall Fund's Alliance for Securing Democracy found that messaging by Chinese officials and media evolved following Moscow's February 2022 invasion to provide greater "rhetorical cover for the Kremlin" despite Beijing's official stance as a neutral party in the conflict.
Sweden’s parliament has formally approved a bill to allow the country to join Nato. Lawmakers in the 349-seat Riksdagen voted overwhelmingly - 296 in favour and 37 votes against - for Sweden’s accession to Nato, with 43 members absent.
The IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Ukraine for a 4-year financing package of $15.6bn. The IMF executive board to discuss approval in coming weeks "Sustain economic and financial stability in circumstances of exceptionally high uncertainty" and Ukraine recovery toward EU accession.
Ukraine Parliament approves $14 billion increase in state budget expenditures for defense-related needs. Ukraine's parliament increased defense expenditures by Hr 537.2 billion ($14.6 billion), Budget Committee Chairman Roksolana Pidlasa reported on March 21.
The Pentagon plans to speed up the delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the situation said, providing the vital equipment to Kyiv as soon as this fall. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has looked at several options for quickening the delivery and arrived at a determination that would reduce the time by about a year, a congressional aide briefed on the plan told Reuters.
The Asahi Shimbun: PM Fumio Kishida after visiting Bucha:
"I really feel great anger at the atrocity upon visiting that very place here." He assured that Japan would keep aiding Ukraine with the greatest effort to regain peace.
Michael Bociurkiw: “The geopolitical significance of Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Kyiv today can’t be overstated. First time since end of WWII that a sitting Japanese PM making a visit to a war zone. Also done while Russian President Vladimir Putin, named by the ICC as a war criminal, is hosting his Chinese counterpart in Moscow.”
The US has offered to sell Slovakia 12 new Bell AH-1Z Viper helicopters at a two-thirds discount after Bratislava sent its retired MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, defence minister Jaroslav Nad said on Wednesday.
US imposes new sanctions over involvement in Iranian drone production. The sanctions have been imposed against four companies and three individuals from Iran and Turkey over their involvement in purchasing equipment, including European-made engines, to support Iran's drone and arms development programs.
An Italian court has approved the extradition to the United States of a Russian entrepreneur, Artyom Uss, accused of smuggling U.S. technologies to Russian arms manufacturers, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported Tuesday. Artyom Uss, the son of a Siberian governor, was arrested at Milan's Malpensa Airport on Oct. 17, 2022. He was one of five Russian citizens arrested by Italian law enforcement at Washington’s request for “unlawful schemes to export powerful” U.S. military technology to Russia.
Russia builds a “special information operation” around Transnistria. Moscow has intentionally heightened the level of tension in the region by pushing narratives, spreading messages across multiple platforms, and using state media as amplifiers.
Ukraine coordinates with EU officials to establish tribunal for Russian war crimes. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke with EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola on March 21 about the need for a tribunal to punish Russian crimes of aggression in Ukraine. The minister wrote on Twitter that they had "coordinated steps" to achieve this.
The Ukraine reconstruction conference is scheduled for April 26 in Rome. The “highest levels of the Italian and Ukrainian governments, the European Commission and the main International Financial Institutions involved in the country” will participate, presenting their plans for the two reconstruction phases – fast recovery and medium to long-term reconstruction.
The Dutch government issued new guidance Tuesday for its officials to uninstall apps from countries that wage an "offensive cyber program" against the Netherlands, including China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Bloomberg reveals that the U.S. intelligence community is “anxious” that Musk has given “Twitter user data” to “foreign entities that helped finance Musk’s Twitter deal: Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund.”
Julia Davis: “Sensing blood in the water, Russian state TV mocked Trump all day: from 60 Minutes that translated Jimmy Kimmel's interview with Stormy Daniels (including all sorts of cringeworthy details), to Vladimir Solovyov who said, "Let them arrest him."
A magnitude 6.5 earthquake rattled parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan, sending panicked residents fleeing from their homes. At least 11 people have died.
Politico EU March 22: The European Commission will today unveil its strongly lobbied and oft–delayed Green Claims Directive, which takes aim at corporate greenwashing by setting rules on what type of environmental claims companies can make — and insisting they should be verifiable. “Companies have found extremely sophisticated ways to engage in greenwashing,” Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius told Playbook. “We found that more than half of environmental claims we examined in the EU were vague, misleading or unfounded.”
An Egyptian startup is aiming to turn more than 5 billion plastic bags into tiles tougher than cement as it tackles the twin problems of tonnes of waste entering the Mediterranean Sea and high levels of building sector emissions. "So far, we have recycled more than 5 million plastic bags, but this is just the beginning," TileGreen co-founder Khaled Raafat told Reuters.
"It is not NATO, Poland or Slovakia that are mounting ever more pressure, but Russia, which has invaded Ukraine. Russia, which is seizing its territories. Russia, which is killing its people. And Russia, which is abducting Ukrainian children.
Therefore, either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict. Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization and our culture will be threatened. Therefore, we will have no choice but to enter the conflict."
Many misunderstood the ambassador's warning, so the Polish Embassy in France issued a statement to clarify that this "was no announcement of Poland’s direct involvement in the conflict, only a warning of the consequences that a Ukrainian defeat could have."
Regardless, Ambassador Rościszewski should be applauded for speaking with such force and honesty. This is the message that must be conveyed to Russia - not NATO's arbitrary and ever-shifting self-imposed red lines.
And THIS is the message that must be conveyed to all citizens of the free world: if we do not decisively defeat Russia, our main values, which were the basis of our civilization & our culture will be threatened. The war will come directly to us if we do not help Ukraine WIN.
Edward Lucas, Visiting Hours: Russia, China, and the ICC- CEPA
Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to Moscow this week showcases the growing closeness between the Chinese Communist Party leadership and the Kremlin. But it also highlights disparities and dilemmas.
China and Russia see the Ukraine war quite differently. Putin understands (correctly) that a pro-Western, successful, and democratic Ukraine poses an existential threat to his kleptocratic neo-imperialism. He is prepared to wreak havoc in order to forestall such a prospect. China by contrast would like Ukraine to be orderly and prosperous — it would be a better export customer, a more reliable supplier and a better investment destination. NATO and EU membership for Ukraine also poses no security worries for China.
For Russia, Chinese diplomatic, economic, and (limited) military support comes at a price. As the now-exiled commentator Andrei Piontkovsky has repeatedly warned, an alliance between Russia and China is one between “a rabbit and a boa constrictor”. Russia used to be a more advanced country than China, particularly in military terms. Now that gap has largely closed. China is roughly ten times bigger in population and economic clout, while Russia, a country obsessed with natural resources, is uncomfortably aware that its giant eastern neighbour has a correspondingly giant appetite for raw materials. [continue reading]
Programming note…
This discussion is part of CEPA’s “State of the Alliance,” a series bringing together thought leaders from Europe and North America to deliberate on the most pressing challenges facing allies and partners. German Ambassador Emily Haber sits down with Alina Polyakova to discuss the role of Germany in fostering transatlantic cooperation and continued support for Ukraine.