Mar 24: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Almost 1.5 million people suffer outages following Russia's 'largest attack' on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia launched over 150 drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in what has been called "the largest mass attack on Ukraine's energy grid" throughout the full-scale war. In the video, a black out in Kharkiv.
Ukrhydroenergo: One station of Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant in critical state. "We do not know to what extent the HPS-2 would operate (after the attack)," Syrota said, adding that HPS-1 also does not work as of around 10:00 a.m. local time on March 22.
ISW: Russia hopes to collapse Ukraine's energy grid amid air defense shortage. "Russian strikes on energy infrastructure in early Spring 2024 likely aim to collapse the energy grid in part to stall Ukrainian efforts to rapidly expand its (defense-industrial base)," the ISW said.
Ministry: Situation at Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Dam under control, no danger of breach. The situation at Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Dam is under control, and there is no danger of a breach following a Russian missile attack, the Environment Ministry said on March 23.
Mar 22: the Food Train was in service to provide food in areas hit by the blackout due to Russian missile strikes.
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznycia) has created the world’s first kitchen train. The Food Train project was implemented together with the foundation of American billionaire Howard Buffett. The invention is capable of producing more than 10,000 servings of food every day, even in the absence of light.
“The food train has already passed a test check, and in the near future the joint team of Ukrzaliznycia and the foundation will be on permanent duty in the most difficult front-line areas of Ukraine, where heat and food are critically important for life,” said Yevhen Liashchenko, chairman of the board of Ukrzaliznytsia.
3 killed, 29 injured in Zaporizhzhia as rescue operations conclude. Search and rescue operations at the sites of a Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia on March 22 have ended, the State Emergency Service reported. The attack killed three people and injured 29. Russian troops struck Chernihiv and Kherson oblasts, killing one person and injuring at least three, local authorities reported on March 22.
Combat Situation Update
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.
The UKR military command appears to be prioritizing rotations for frontline units but will have to address additional manpower challenges if UKR forces are to seize the initiative even on a localized basis in 2024 as UKR senior military officers say they hope to do.
Media: Czechia sends Ukraine its last Soviet Mi-24 helicopters. This is the third time Czechia has supplied Ukraine with helicopters. Prague sent four Mi-24 helicopters in July 2022 and then sent more in July 2023 without specifying the numbers and models.
Overnight, Ukraine attacked the Kuybyshevsky oil refinery in the Samara region in Russia. The refinery is specialized in the production of jet fuel among other products. The fire lasted until the morning. The refinery is 900km from Ukraine’s border. The Rosneft refinery is the main producer of jet engine fuel.
On March 22, in the temporarily occupied city of Melitopol, a group of Russian invaders and their military equipment were targeted and destroyed in two explosions. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and local resistance forces conducted a successful operation resulting in the defeat of the invaders and destruction of their equipment, including two Kamaz tilt trucks and a UAZ Patriot.
Mar 23: The Ukrainian forces attacked Sevastopol, Crimea, near Cape Fiolent and Inkerman. At least 9 explosions were reported. Crimean bridge was closed. Explosions near Yevpatoriya and Belbek Air Base in occupied Crimea.
Behind the Lines
Hackers from the GUR launched cyber attacks targeting several significant servers in Russia. According to a source in the special services, attacks are ongoing. The servers affected include those of the Russian state awards and Federal Security Service.
At Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow, a new regulation makes it mandatory for all passengers to be filmed before take off if they are coming from abroad. Welcome to the Russia.
Bloomberg: Russian oil trade feels pressure of Western sanctions in India. Russia's oil industry is starting to feel the pressure of Western sanctions as Indian refineries no longer accept tankers of Moscow's state-owned state-run Sovcomflot shipping company, Bloomberg reported on March 23. (Me: Olga and I talked with Nikky Kenyon about the effectiveness of sanctions, and she concurs with the assessment.)
Szabolcs Panyi: Orbán's propaganda minister/intel chief Antal Rogán is intentionally annoying US soldiers stationed in Hungary. Link to the full story.
Meanwhile in Russia
Mobilisation but don’t tell anyone: Now that the election is over, Russia’s Defense Ministry reportedly planning to covertly mobilize 300K for war in Ukraine, launch siege on Kharkiv.
Back in January, Bashkortostan saw some of the largest protests in Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The protesters rallied to show support for prominent Bashkort activist Fayil Alsynov, who was on trial for allegedly “inciting ethnic hatred.” According to case materials obtained by Mediazona, a group of 33 Investigative Committee officials are now carrying out an ongoing investigation under the Criminal Code articles for “mass rioting” and “violence against government officials.”
Russia selling Iran airships: On February 4, 2024, the Prana Network, a group of hackers working against the Iranian government, announced it had breached the email servers of an Iranian company called Sahara Thunder, which is widely considered to be a front for the dealings of the Iranian military. The activists managed to obtain 10 gigabytes worth of documents detailing the exchange of military technology between Tehran and Moscow. New details have emerged about Moscow’s procurement of kamikaze drones and the Iranian military’s purchases of “spy” airships in Russia (similar to the Chinese “spy balloon” that was shot down in the U.S. in 2023).
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC in Moscow: “In the Kremlin this week I asked Vladimir Putin’s celebrity supporters about the election. Responses ranged from “We see the happy Russia” to “We don’t like you.” (With what happened yesterday, this video is revealing. Putin can do as he wishes.)
Putin is MIA: As of 12pm CET, Putin has yet to speak on the massacre in Moscow. He made his appearance at 14:38. Putin’s toilet speech. Churchill said he would fight on the beaches etc…Putin said he would fight in the toilets.
“We will identify and punish everyone who stands behind these terrorists, murderers, non-humans. They will face an inevitable fate - retribution,” Putin said in his appeal to the Russian people.”
Daniele Agrisani: According to Meduza, the Russian state-controlled television network NTV broadcast broadcast a fake video in which the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov confirmed Kyiv's involvement in yesterday's terrorist attack.
The NTV presenter introduced the fake video by commenting: "The involvement of the Kyiv regime in the terrorist attack in the Moscow region was confirmed publicly and on television by Danilov."
In the video “Danilov” specifically states: “It was fun in Moscow today, I think it was very fun. I would like to believe that we will organize fun for them more often."
Meduza says that a portion of the video showing Ukrainian TV presenters was clearly taken from the March 16 broadcast; their interlocutor in that case was the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov.
Fun fact: In Italy by the pro-russian Nicolai Lilin (Telegram). He is a candidate in the European elections for the "Pace Terra Dignità" party ("Peace Earth Dignity"), founded by italian journalist Michele Santoro.
Changes to the narrative: in the EuroFile post “The Moscow Massacre”, the Russian telegram channels had posted the pictures of the ‘culprits’ who they claim have been arrested even if only one video has surfaced with one man being interrogated. The BBC fact checking the photos:
The ‘official’ Russian version is still being finalized but the culprit seems to be…Ukraine! You guessed it. Migrant workers from Tajikistan (Muslims!) organized by Ukrainian special services. The fault obviously lies with United States (which reported the incorrect date of the terrorist attack) and of Emmanuel Macron (hence the arrested Renault car). I really like the Macron entry: that’s creative.
Constructing the narrative: Russia state media TASS states that the "Crocus City Hall" terrorist tried to escape in the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian border. reports the Central Office of the FSB.
Sputnik—Head of Russia's Defense Committee: "Ukraine and its patrons are the main stakeholders in the terrorist attack on Moscow's concert hall. If the information about Ukraine's involvement in the terrorist attack is confirmed, there should be … ."
US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson issued a statement on Saturday saying that the Islamic State bears sole responsibility for the deadly attack near Moscow on Friday and there was no Ukrainian involvement “whatsoever”. The US government a few weeks ago shared information with Russia about a planned attack in Moscow and also issued a public advisory to Americans in Russia on March 7, Watson added.
Allied Support
EU moves toward plan to use profits from frozen Russian assets for arms for Ukraine. "I am confident that we can act very quickly," said European Council President Charles Michel.
Bloomberg: Germany allocates $325 million to Czech-led initiative for Ukraine. Berlin has pledged 300 million euros ($325 million) to a Czech-led initiative to provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, Bloomberg reported on March 21, citing people familiar with the decision.
Reuters: France, Germany reportedly oppose using bonds to maximize profits from frozen Russian assets. At the same time, the EU moved closer on March 21 to finalizing a plan to use 90% of the profits generated from the frozen funds to purchase weapons for Kyiv and allocate the remaining 10% to the EU budget to support Ukraine's defense industry.
European Commission proposes tariffs on Russian, Belarusian grain. The measure would impose a 95 euro ($103) per ton on corn and wheat, as opposed to zero tariffs imposed today, Business Insider reported. Other products, namely oilseeds, would be subject to an "ad valorem duty" of 50%.
Christian Amanpour interviews Gabrielus Landsbergis: In Ukraine, we face “a possible story of western failure,” warns Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Landsbergis. Putin is betting on western politics, indecisiveness, and hesitation, he adds: “For two years, we’ve been drawing red lines for ourselves… Now we have to change that.”
UK announces more air defense systems, surveillance drones for Ukraine. The U.K. has announced a further 60 million pounds ($75.5 million) in military aid for Ukraine that will provide new surveillance drones and air defense systems, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on March 22.
Against the background of massive Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, Biden called on the House of Representatives to support the bill on aid to Kyiv as soon as possible.
"As we've seen in just the last couple of days, every day the House delays is another day Ukrainians have to pay with their own blood," White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said at a briefing.
Ukraine and Denmark are set to enhance collaboration in defense technologies and the development of the UAV industry. The Ministry of Statistics reported that representatives from both countries met to discuss three main issues: the development of UAV industry under the Army of Drones program, opportunities for cooperation with international partners in defense technology, and Ukraine's current and future technological needs.
This post spells out just how ridiculous Russian propaganda actually is.
Programming notes…
Olga and I had the absolute pleasure to speak with Natia Seskuria, director of RISS, in partnership with RUSI, in a two-part chat on Kremlin File about Russia’s kinetic and non-kinetic warfare staring with Natia’s homeland, Georgia. We also discussed the Black Sea strategy and why it’s so important to the Kremlin in terms of geopolitical reasons, and historical. Here’s a short clip of the first part of our chat on Georgia.
Steve Rosenberg's interviews were somewhat akin to something Jimmy Kimmel might do with ordinary Americans on the street. Margarita seems to be front and center in a lot of things coming out of Russia lately. I know it comes with her professional position but is she sort of like an Ann Coulter?