Mar 26: Sunday Stories
Day 396: Avdiivka Bakhmut Sumy Chernihiv Crimea drones $2.5Bln Aksyonov Cherkasov Allies AUS Prigozhin A&Ps Priboi Zelensky Snyder Barry Buziashvili Ilves DarthPutin Barry Sumlenny AC Walsh Snyder
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukraine's military: Russia trying to encircle Avdiivka, but 'getting exhausted.' The area of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast is currently one of the most active on Ukraine's front line, but Russian troops are "getting exhausted" there, Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi, Ukraine's military spokesperson, said on March 24, cited by Ukrainska Pravda publication.
Russia launches multi-weapon attack on Sumy Oblast overnight on March 24. Russia attacked the city of Bilopilia in Sumy Oblast overnight on March 24 using Grad multiple rocket launchers, guided aircraft bombs, and Iranian-made Shahed drones, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration. As a result of the attack on Bilopilia, at least two people are dead and nine are injured.
Northern Command: Russia shells border area in Chernihiv Oblast, killing 1. One person died as a result of the attack and a house burned down in the Russian attack, likely carried out with 120mm mortars, according to Ukraine's Northern Operational Command.
Minister: More than 5 million people in Ukraine without access to water due to Russia's war. Nearly five million Ukrainians do not have access to drinking water as a result of Russia's war, Ruslan Strilets, Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine said during the UN Water for Sustainable Development Conference 2023 in New York on March 24.
Putin said Saturday he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in neighbouring Belarus, adding that the United States has been placing such arms on their allies' territory "for decades".
Novaya Gazeta Europe has found that Russia has seized agricultural companies, factories, food processing plants, markets, pharmacy chains, malls, and other types of businesses in Ukraine’s occupied regions since launching its full-scale invasion. ‘Pure looting, thievery, and banditry’ Russia has seized roughly 1,000 businesses in Ukraine’s annexed regions, new investigation finds.
Intelligence: Russian occupying authorities in Crimea sell their property, take families away. The Russian command and Moscow-installed proxies in Crimea have begun evacuation from the occupied peninsula, selling their real estate and taking families away, Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence, said on March 23.
Ukrainian government facilitates mass drone production. The Ukrainian government approved a decree on March 24 simplifying bureaucratic procedures for the country's drone manufacturers and allowing them to compete with foreign companies.
The Ministry of Health of Ukraine reported on March 24, 2023, that according to the World Bank, Russian troops destroyed and damaged medical facilities in Ukraine for the total amount of 2.5 billion dollars.
The Russian authorities are launching a massive recruitment campaign to replenish the depleted forces in Ukraine, which, according to Western data, have lost more than 200,000 people killed and wounded. The Kremlin has set the task of recruiting 400,000 contract servicemen to the Armed Forces and sent out the corresponding orders to the regions, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the situation.
Sergey Aksyonov created a new paramilitary structure in Crimea — it is commanded by Prigozhin's curator in Africa. In March of this year, Aksenov, on the air of the Crimean television, spoke about the appearance of a professional military unit in Crimea. PMC "Convoy" is a relatively new private military unit. Today, the positions of the "Convoy" are located in the Kherson region adjacent to the Crimea.
Poland, together with NATO, will hold military exercises near the border with the Kaliningrad region, according to the Polish edition of PAP. They will be held from 27 to 31 March. The exercises called "Zalew-2023" will take place in the area of the Vistula (Baltic) Spit. In total, 2.5 thousand military personnel and approximately 500 pieces of equipment are involved in the exercises. Last week, Politico reported that NATO is going to deploy up to 300,000 troops to the border with Russia. So the leadership of the alliance hopes to stop the possible spread of hostilities outside of Ukraine.
Biden says China has not yet increased military support for Russia despite warning signs. U.S. President Joe Biden said that despite signs that China is considering stepping up its military support for Russia, the country hasn't so far moved to do so, CNN reported.
Biden, Trudeau pledge to 'stand strong with Ukraine, with whatever it takes.' Ukraine can count on the United States and Canada to stand with it in its fight against Russia, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an address to parliament in Ottawa alongside U.S. President Joe Biden on March 24.
Erdogan calls on Putin to end war "through negotiations" in phone call. Erdogan thanked Putin for his “positive stance regarding the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” even though Russia agreed to prolong the participation in the UN-backed deal for 60 days, not 120.
Zelensky: Ukraine didn't receive peace mediation proposal from China. President Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t receive a proposal to mediate peace between Ukraine and Russia from China, he told the Japan News.
Russian National “Illegal” Charged with Acting as Agent of a Russian Intelligence Service in the United States. Sergey Vladimirovich Cherkasov (“Cherkasov”), 37, a national of the Russian Federation who operated as an “Illegal” agent for a Russian Intelligence Service (“RIS”) under the Brazilian alias of Victor Muller Ferreira, was charged today for acting as an agent of a foreign power, visa fraud, bank fraud, wire fraud, and other charges stemming from his illegal activities in the United States.
According to a Criminal Complaint filed on March 24, 2023, in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, between 2012 and April 2022. Cherkasov acted as an illegal agent of a RIS using a Brazilian cover identity.
Germany delivers Dachs vehicles, machine guns to Ukraine. The German government reported on March 24 it handed Ukraine three engineering vehicles Dachs for the first time as well as additional MG3 machine guns and drone detection systems.
EU is hooked on Russia LNG and paying billions to keep it coming. The European Union has slashed its dependence on Russian energy this year, banning coal imports and readying an oil embargo too. But one product is booming, and is unlikely to face an EU boycott anytime soon.
European Central Bank demands Raiffeisen to stop its business in Russia European Central Bank (ECB) increases pressure on Raiffeisen Bank International - the regulator calls on it to leave the Russian market. It is reported by Reuters citing five knowledgeable sources.
Media: Austria to arrest Putin if he visits. Austria, as a party to the Rome Statute, is obliged to execute arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC), the Austrian Justice Ministry told Ukrainian publication Ukrinform when asked if the country would arrest Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in case of his visit.
European Union supports international mechanism for documenting, punishing Russian crimes. The EU supports the idea of establishing an international mechanism to document and punish Russian war crimes, according to a statement released by the European Council on March 23.
Hungary says it would not arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin if he entered the country, despite the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing an arrest warrant for him last week, accusing him of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. Orban’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, said on Thursday that even though Hungary is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the ICC, and ratified it in 2001, arresting Putin would have no basis in Hungarian law.
“Russian email accounts sent a series of hoax bomb threats targeting the Manhattan district attorney and court buildings for three straight days this week amid a grand jury investigation of former president Donald Trump.”
The French home improvement retailer Leroy Merlin will transfer control of its stores in Russia to local management, parent company ADEO announced Friday, more than a year since the invasion of Ukraine triggered an exodus of Western businesses.
Putin’s Mercenary Prigozhin Shifts Focus After Ukraine Setbacks- Bloomberg
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the powerful founder of mercenary group Wagner, is preparing to scale back his private army’s operations in Ukraine after Russian military chiefs succeeded in cutting key supplies of men and munitions, people familiar with the matter said.
Seen as an increasing threat by the security and political establishment, Prigozhin is struggling with a manpower and ammunition shortage in Ukraine after he was barred from recruiting from prisons, his primary source of recruits, and deprived of supplies. Wagner troops so far have failed to take their main target - the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut - despite months of trying and staggering losses. Now, Prigozhin is planning to shift focus back to Africa, the people said.
Ellen Barry, Inside a psychiatric hospital in Kyiv, the growing mental trauma of the war is written on every soldier’s face. New York Times
The soldier cannot speak about what happened to him.
It’s been a month since “the tragedy,” as he calls it. When the subject arises, he freezes and looks at the floor. He gulps for air. He cannot say it.
His doctor, a motherly woman, speaks for him: There were four of them. They were stationed near the front line, in eastern Ukraine, and on that night they shot a Russian drone from the sky. A small victory. Then its wreckage hurtled down, hunks of ragged metal slicing into the men below. He was the only one left standing.
In the numb hours that followed, someone came to collect the others — one dead, two wounded — and he was left to hold the position alone through that freezing night and into the next day.
By the time they came for him, he could not find words. “That’s it,” the psychiatrist said. “He withdrew into himself and doesn’t want anything.”
The soldier has been sent for treatment at a Kyiv psychiatric hospital named for Ivan Pavlov — Pavlivka, as it is known. In peacetime, Pavlivka treated people with severe mental illnesses, mostly schizophrenia, but the war has forced a pivot. Hospitals in Ukraine cannot manage the volume of psychiatric casualties coming in, and commanders need their troops back. Last June, Pavlivka opened an overflow unit with 40 beds, but six weeks later, it grew to 100. [continue reading]
Interviews and additional reporting by Rita Burkovska. Interviews have been edited and condensed.
Defriefing the Xi-Putin summit with Atlantic Council
What does Xi’s visit herald for the partnership between Russia and China? Does it signal the deepening of an autocratic entente? What effect, if any, will it have on the battlefield in Ukraine? The Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Eurasia Center host a virtual roundtable to discuss.
Declan Walsh, A ‘New Cold War’ Looms in Africa as U.S. Pushes Against Russian Gains- NYT
The U.S. is reprising its playbook in Ukraine, where it has used classified information to expose plans by Russia. Next target: Chad.
Fueled by guns, gold and social media, the rivalry between Russia and the West in Africa is rapidly escalating. The latest flashpoint is Chad, a sprawling desert nation at the crossroads of the continent, now a plum target for Russia’s expanding effort.
The United States recently warned Chad’s president that Russian mercenaries were plotting to kill him and three senior aides and that Moscow was backing Chadian rebels massing in the neighboring Central African Republic. At the same time, Moscow is courting sympathizers inside Chad’s ruling elite, including cabinet ministers and a half brother of the president.
In Africa, the more forceful American approach aims partly to shore up the crumbling position of France, which in recent years has ceded ground to Russia in former colonies like Mali and the Central African Republic. Now the Russians are looking to topple more French dominoes in central and western Africa, and the United States is responding.
A U.S. official, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters of national security, said the assassination plot in Chad represented “a new chapter” in efforts by Wagner, the Kremlin-backed private military force, to advance Russian interests in Africa. [continue reading]
Programme note…
Timothy Snyder, The Making of Modern Ukraine- Lesson 8
This was a guest lecture delivered by my colleague Professor Glenn Dynner, a leading authority on the history of the Jews of eastern Europe.