Mar 29: Buonasera Mag
Day 399: Atroshchenko Avdiivka Kherson Nikopol Bakhmut Shulginov BEL Wagner START travel UN NOR ROM-POL EE Iran IOC A&P KyivIndie Cenusa ISW UKDef Dmitri GER@NATO Khachaturov Stakhovskyi Liew TOTV
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
President Zelensky said Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support. He told a Japanese newspaper on March 26 that he would not send his troops to the front lines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers. In an interview with Yomiuri Shimbun, he said the situation in eastern Ukraine was "not good". "We are waiting for ammunition to arrive from our partners," he said.
Avdiivka closed for volunteers and press as situation deteriorates. Vitalii Barabash, head of the Avdiivka city military administration, said on March 27 that due to the worsening situation in the city, entry to the front-line city in Donetsk Oblast is now prohibited for journalists and volunteers.
Russia’s 10th tank regiment has borne the brunt of the assault of Avdiivka and has likely lost a “large portion of its tanks” while attempting to surround the town from the south, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update.
Russian forces shell Kherson Oblast, injuring 3. At least three people have been injured after Russian forces shelled the city of Beryslav. Russian March 27 missile strike on Sloviansk kills 2, injures 29. Two Russian S-300 missiles hit the city center of Donetsk Oblast's Sloviansk, damaging administrative and office buildings, five high-rises, and seven houses, said Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports on its official Telegram channel that a hospital in Kherson has been struck overnight.
Ukraine is aiming to exhaust and inflict heavy losses on Russian forces trying to capture Bakhmut, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces has said. In a video showing him addressing soldiers in what appeared to be a large industrial warehouse, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia was continuing to focus on the Bakhmut area after months of battle.
Zelensky visits Nikopol as Dnipropetrovsk Oblast targeted by Russian drones. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on March 27, the President's Office wrote. Zelensky stopped by the city of Nikopol, which has been targeted by Russian attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion, to learn about the situation there and in neighboring areas.
Russian forces launch 18 attacks on Sumy Oblast. Russian forces attacked the communities of Esman, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Shalyhyne, Velyka Pysarivka, and Seredyna-Buda. The attacks injured a woman and destroyed civilian infrastructure.
Commander: Ukraine considering every option in Bakhmut, will 'act adequately.' Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, visited the Bakhmut front line again, saying that the battlefield situation in the area is "consistently difficult," the Defense Ministry media center reported on March 27.
SBU neutralizes Russian agent group working in Donetsk, Kharkiv oblasts. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on March 27 it neutralized an agent network of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), allegedly aiding in targeting Ukrainian positions in the country’s east.
Possible drone attacks against key energy infrastructure are a serious threat to Russia’s energy security, energy minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Tuesday. Reuters reports Shulginov did not mention Ukraine by name, but Russia says it has foiled a number of attempted Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months.
Alexander Novak, the Russian deputy prime minister, said on Tuesday that Russia needed to focus on boosting energy exports to so-called “friendly” countries, as he said Russian oil supplies to India jumped 22-fold last year.
Facial recognition technology is helping Putin curb dissent at home. A Reuters review of more than 2,000 court cases shows how Russia uses facial recognition to identify and sweep up the Kremlin's opponents.
Belarus’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that it had been forced to house Russian nuclear weapons on its territory by the aggressive actions of Nato countries that were threatening Belarus’s own security, Reuters reports, citing Russian news agency Tass. (yah, right.)
A giant recruitment advert for Russia’s mercenary Wagner group has appeared on an office building next to a highway in north-east Moscow, showing the group’s logo and slogans such as “Join the winning team!” and “Together we will win”.
Members of a recently formed Russian assault unit say their commanders deployed troops to stop them from retreating and threatened them with death after they suffered “huge” losses in eastern Ukraine. In a video addressed to President Vladimir Putin, a group of about two dozen men in military uniform say they are the remnants of Storm, a unit under the defence ministry.
“We sat under open mortar fire and artillery for 14 days,” Alexander Gorin, a Russian soldier, is heard saying in the appeal, which first appeared on Friday on Russian Telegram channels.
They placed barrier troops behind us and weren’t letting us leave our position … They are threatening to destroy us one by one and as a unit. They want to execute us as witnesses of a completely negligent criminal leadership.
Top Russian officials — including lawmakers, governors and senior managers of state-owned companies — have been placed under strict foreign travel restrictions by the Kremlin since the start of the Ukraine war in an apparent attempt to head off defections and hinder the work of foreign intelligence services. “No one can go anywhere without individual permission,” a senior Russian government official told The Moscow Times. These measures are an effort “to prevent officials from defecting,” said Kremlin critic Gennady Gudkov, a former Soviet KGB officer and ex-State Duma deputy.
The US will not provide Russia with data on its nuclear forces, the White House has said, following Vladimir Putin’s decision to suspend Moscow’s participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty. A spokesperson for the US national security council said today:
Under international law, the United States has the right to respond to Russia’s breaches of the New Start Treaty by taking proportionate and reversable countermeasures in order to induce Russia to return to compliance with its obligations.
That means that because Russia’s claimed suspension of the New Start Treaty is legally invalid, the US is legally permitted to withhold our biannual data update in response to Russia’s breaches.
The US supports the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute the crime of “aggression” against Ukraine, officials said. The US ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice, Beth Van Schaak said the court might also be located elsewhere in Europe, at least at first, “in order “to reinforce Ukraine’s desired European orientation”.
We believe that this Special Tribunal should be rooted in Ukraine’s domestic judicial system, as this will provide the clearest path to establishing a new Tribunal and maximize our chances of achieving meaningful accountability.
AP: The UN security council on Monday declined a Russian request to investigate the blasts on the pipelines that move natural gas from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea. Russia, China and Brazil voted in favour of the Russian request, but other security council members abstained or said another investigation was unnecessary.
One of Europe's largest ammunition manufacturers, Norwegian Nammo, has said it's unable to expand to meet new quotas and respond to Ukraine's increased demand because a nearby data center is using up all the electricity in the central Norway region to store TikTok videos. "We are concerned because we see our future growth is challenged by the storage of cat videos," Nammo chief executive Morten Brandtzæg told the press.
Romania and Poland are in talks with the EU Commission over export tracing mechanisms for Ukrainian grains to ensure local farmers are not hurt by a flood of cheap imports, the Polish and Romanian prime ministers said on Tuesday.
The chancellor of the Ministry of Defense, Kusti Salm, on Tuesday rejected the accusations presented by the publication Politico, as if Estonia had unfairly used the European peace fund to upgrade its armaments by sending arms aid to Ukraine. The article was also called an information operation by the former head of the defense forces, member of the European Parliament, Riho Terras.
Japan calls on China to ‘act responsibly’ regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on March 27 during an Upper House plenary session that he will call on China to act responsibly regarding Ukraine, as cited by NHK.
Wall Street Journal: Russia providing Iran with cyber weapons. Russia is supplying Iran with technology to bolster its cyber warfare capabilities, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 27. The military cooperation between the two countries has been steadily growing since the onset of Russia's all-out war in Ukraine.
China spent $240 billion bailing out 22 developing countries between 2008 and 2021, with the amount soaring in recent years as more have struggled to repay loans spent building "Belt & Road" infrastructure, according to a study published today. Almost 80% of the rescue lending was made between 2016 and 2021.
Spiegel: Germany wants to increase defense aid to Ukraine. Germany is looking to boost its defense aid to Ukraine to more than 15 billion euros in "the coming years", der Spiegel reported on March 27.
Belgian police have detained eight people "suspected of having made preparations to commit a terrorist attack in Belgium", the federal prosecutor's office said Tuesday. Antwerp federal police carried out five searches in Merksem, Borgerhout, Deurne, Sint-Jans-Molenbeek and Eupen on Monday night at the request of an investigating judge. The prosecutor's office said five people were arrested, but it didn't give details about what was found.
OCCRP: A leaked report sheds light on the source of a mysterious media attack on the Serbian president’s political rival, Belgrade Mayor Dragan Đilas. A pro-government media campaign targeting the former mayor was based on a “global bank scan” report obtained by journalists. Disinformation group ‘Team Jorge’ was likely behind the report used by the Serbian officials. [continue reading]
Larissa Babij, a Kind of Refugee, 25.03.23
Now my neighborhood is full of people who’ve relocated from other parts of Ukraine where it’s unsafe or unlivable. I can tell by the way they speak Russian, their manner, how they dress that they’ve come from places further east or south. And also by the way that they look around, taking in the canal and its resident ducks with a fresh gaze: it’s new and not home… yet.
Often they stroll together—several adults and their dogs, not only couples but parents and grown children, old friends. People from small, close-knit communities sometimes evacuate together, traveling in a large group, chipping in to rent a house with many rooms, carrying a piece of their community to an unfamiliar Ukrainian city.
IOC Recommendation: Russia & Belarus compete under a neutral flag
The International Olympic Committee has recommended that Russian and Belarusian athletes are allowed to compete in international sporting events under a neutral flag.
The IOC issued a set of recommendations, which stated that those “with a Russian or a Belarusian passport must compete only as Individual Neutral Athletes”, meaning individuals can compete without national symbols, such as a flag.
t added that “athletes who are contracted to the Russian or Belarusian military or national security agencies” could also not be considered.
Germany’s interior minister, Nancy Faeser, said the committee’s decision is “a slap in the face for all Ukrainian athletes”, posting to Twitter:
I would have liked the Russian and Belarusian athletes to remain excluded. There is no reason whatsoever for Russia to return to world sport.
Poland’s deputy foreign minister, Piotr Wawrzyk, said it was “a day of shame for the IOC”, posting to Twitter:
What positive things has Russia done for their athletes to now take part in competitions!! After Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel!! After the daily bombings of civilian sites!!
Jonathan Liew, Russia has seamlessly returned to football – and nobody seems overly perturbed- The Guardian
Europe may be prepared to ‘forget Russia’ but closer ties to Asian confederation are a warning sign of what is to come.
On Sunday evening, Ukraine’s footballers will step out at Wembley Stadium to a vivid fanfare: a sea of flags and bold gestures, an outpouring of affection and solidarity that has greeted them pretty much everywhere they have travelled in the last year. At exactly the same time, in St Petersburg’s Krestovsky Stadium, Russia will play Iraq in their first national team game on home soil since the start of last year’s war.
Good luck finding the game on television or tracking down a match report on the Fifa website. But seamlessly, almost imperceptibly, Russia has returned to the international football treadmill, and nobody seems overly perturbed by it.
Even Ukraine, who called for Iran to be thrown out of last year’s World Cup for its role in supplying drones to the Russian war effort, has in this instance opted for apathy over outrage. “Those countries who play Russia, an aggressor, support Russian aggression and what Russia is doing to Ukraine,” said Ukraine’s caretaker manager, Ruslan Rotan, last week. “We don’t have to think about those countries, we don’t have to pay attention to them. They are not worthy. The bottom line is, forget Russia.” [continue reading]
Programming note…
