Mar 3: E-Stories
Day738 Odesa RuAttacks CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Lavrov Allies BidenMeloni A&P Drutska Breedlove CDS UKDef ISW EuroMaidan Tendar KyivIndie Hadhazy Davis Buziashvili Lautman Pichler WSJChina
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Maria Avdeeva: Police station, hospital, and kindergarten in Kostiantynivka were hit by S-300. Constant attacks have forced residents, whom I know, to flee. Will it become the next target for Russia's assault?
Stories we’re following…
More than 20 villages in Kharkiv have reportedly sustained Russian artillery and mortar attacks. Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Syniehubov is reported to have said this morning that the eastern Ukrainian province had sustained Russian artillery and mortar attacks, while high-rise buildings in the regional capital, also called Kharkiv, were damaged by a drone attack.
Zelensky: Kharkiv not safe enough for residents to return. Kharkiv is not yet safe enough for residents to return to the city, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on March 1.
Russian drone attack on Odesa kills 10, injures 8. A Russian drone attack on Odesa killed 10 people and injured at least 8 others, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported on March 2. 10-12 people may still be under the rubble. Two babies were buried under the rubble.
Maria Drutska: A young man in Odessa waits for rescuers to retrieve his wife and 3-month-old baby from under the rubble...
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast kills 1. A Russian drone attack on Kharkiv Oblast killed one man, local authorities reported on March 2.
Air Force: Ukraine downs another Russian Su-34 jet. The destruction of the jet is the latest in a recent uptick of downed Russian planes. This list includes 12 Su-34 fighter bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets, and a rare A-50 military spy plane. Another A-50 aircraft was downed a month prior.
Military intelligence: Russian Pantsir missile system hit in Belgorod Oblast. The Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile system was damaged as a result of the attack in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast on Feb. 29, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said, without specifying who had carried out the strike.
Overnight, occupied Crimea was attacked by 38 drones. In Feodosia, loud explosions were heard. The Russian ministry of defense reports, as usual, that all drones were shot down.
Noel Report: Early Saturday morning, St. Petersburg was woken up by explosions. Presumably Ukrainian drones attacked the area. Russia media claim the target could have been the Ruchy oil depot. There was damage to a residential building due to falling debris.
Russia claims it downed 4 drones over 2 regions amid blackout reports. Russia claimed its air defenses shot down one drone over Belgorod Oblast and three more over Nizhny Novgorod Oblast overnight on March 1, the BBC's Russia Service reported, citing Russia's Defense Ministry.
Just a reminder that Ukraine is losing so many of its men and women, and we are still not getting them enough of what they need to defend themselves and repel the Russian forces. These young men and women had jobs and livelihoods as bakers, engineers, teachers, accountants, plumbers, store assistants, social workers, mechanics…they had a different life, safer life.
Combat Situation Update
Military: Ukraine partially retakes ground near Avdiivka while Russia pushes toward Chasiv Yar. Russia ramps up attacks in the Avdiivka sector, but Ukrainian forces hold ground and have even retaken some lost positions, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria group of forces, said on Telegram on March 1.
ISW: Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna amid continued positional engagements along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 2.
CDS Assessment: The potential capture of Chasiv Yar by Russian Armed Forces would open pathways for the enemy's advancement towards Kostiantynivka. The main operational goal of the enemy's command in Donetsk Oblast remains the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration.
Positional engagements are on-going in all directions: northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, Lake Lyman, and Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka; west of Kreminna near Yampolivka and Terny; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.
The command of the 31st Air Defense Division of the enemy has started to extensively use decoys and false positions to mislead the reconnaissance capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Specifically, they are masking the positions of the 12th anti-aircraft missile regiment in this manner. There are documented attempts by the enemy to use false sources of electromagnetic radiation and radio network masking.
In the imminent future, the adversary's command is expected to engage the 348th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division in the direction of Berdychi or Novobakhmutivka. This regiment recently concentrated in the Horlivka area following its restoration a few days ago.
Escalational indicators: The President of the Russian Federation signed the annual decree on the conscription of reservists in 2024.
Syrskyi dissatisfied with some brigade commanders, hints at personnel changes. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on March 2 said he was forced to make "personnel decisions" regarding some eastern front commanders whose actions "threaten the life and health" of their soldiers.
Russian proxy says air defense active in occupied Crimea amid reported explosions. The Russian proxy leader in Sevastopol on occupied Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said on March 1 that air defense is active in the city, urging people to stay in shelter.
Bloomberg: Russia could break through defenses in summer, Ukrainian officials warn. Ukrainian officials worry that Russian forces could gain momentum on the battlefield by the summer if allies do not increase ammunition supplies to Kyiv, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 29, citing a source familiar with the discussions.
Tendar: Russian control of Ukraine:
March 2022 - 159,000 Square Kilometers - 61,400 Square Miles - 26.4% of all Ukraine March 2024 - 111,900 Square Kilometers - 42,200 Square Miles - 18.5 % of all Ukraine
Behind the Lines
CDS: In the occupied Mariupol, a large "cleanup operation" is underway. Eleven police crews from St. Petersburg arrived in the city to reinforce the Rosgvardia unit, which has been placed under the command of the FSB, wrote Petro Andryushenko, an advisor to the legally elected mayor of Mariupol. According to him, representatives of enemy security forces are searching the city for "partisans and saboteurs" to ensure proper reporting on the eve of the forthcoming “presidential elections”.
Ukraine’s sea exports reach record monthly level since full-scale invasion. Ukraine exported eight million metric tons of goods through the Black Sea corridor in February, reaching a monthly record level since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Infrastructure Ministry reported on March 1.
WSJ: Russia's peace terms include Ukraine outside NATO, smaller military, 2022 document shows. A peace plan proposal drafted during Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in 2022 would see Ukraine turn into a militarily neutered country, permanently vulnerable to Russian aggression, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 1 after reviewing the document.
Me: I didn’t publish a link to the story above because any kind of ‘leak’ put out to the West by Russian sources should be considered an attempt to shape our perception of what Russia wants us to think at this time. As Olga has pointed out in our Week in Review, nothing escapes Russia unless it has a purpose for doing so, something to keep in mind as you consider Russian sources and their intent.
General Philip Breedlove on Times Radio: “This is a clear indication that Russia has known all along that they had limitations on their conventional capabilities.” The leaked Russian military documents outlining the Kremlin’s plans to use tactical nuclear weapons are a sign of Putin’s weakness, says General Philip Breedlove, Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO.
OSCE invokes special mechanism to address arbitrary detentions of Ukrainian civilians by Russia. The Moscow Mechanism allows for an expert mission to be dispatched and assist a country "in the resolution of a particular question or problem relating to the human dimension."
Bulgaria will stop importing Russian oil. Bulgaria halted Russian oil imports this week as part of the European Union's ban on Russian oil, thereby ending a two-year embargo exemption, the Bulgarian news outlet BGNES reported on March 1.
Ukraine's State Border Guard Service (SBGS) has reported that Polish protesters continue to block all six crossing points on the Polish-Ukrainian border, Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for SBGS, reported on air during the national joint 24/7 newscast
"Polish farmers continue to block lorry traffic. On all six crossing points. As of this morning [3 March 2024], a total of over 2,400 freight vehicles are queuing at all these checkpoints on the Polish side of the border, waiting to enter Ukraine," he said.
"I would like to mention that Yahodyn is the largest infrastructure point where 1,200-1,400 freight vehicles can cross the border from both sides. However, at present, only lorries travelling into Ukraine are allowed through... No lorries are crossing the border towards Poland as they are not allowed to do so," added Demchenko.
Lavrov comments about Moldova: He compares Moldova with Ukraine and says that "the situation is identical." Will Russia begin a ground attack against Moldova via Transnistria? I don’t think that’s the case because Transnistria is completed surrounded by Ukraine to the north east to west and Moldova to the southwest. It is a signal, however, that hybrid attacks against Moldova will increase in order to take Western attention, and resources, away from Ukraine. That said, Lavrov also said that Russia wouldn’t attack Ukraine. Remember that the Kremlin will always disseminate constrating narratives that will increase debate and division in the West.
Meanwhile in Russia
In Germany, Putin was accused of trying to destabilize the situation in the country.
"The events of the last few days once again show how Vladimir Putin is trying to have a massive negative impact on our open society, especially in Germany, with the help of disinformation, destabilization and espionage," said Agnieszka Brugger, vice-chair of the Greens parliamentary group.
Germany's military intelligence has launched an investigation into whether internal conversations of high-ranking Bundeswehr soldiers may have been intercepted. This is a recording published by Russian propaganda channels, in which German officers allegedly discuss the details of the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and their impact on the "bridge in the east".
The head of Russia’s state-backed RT channel, Margarita Simonyan, on Friday posted a 38-minute audio recording of what she claimed were German army officers discussing striking Crimea.
Germany's Defence Ministry confirms that an internal conversation between German Air Force officers has been intercepted, German news channel n-tv reports.
"We believe that a conversation [between] Air Force [officers] has been intercepted. We currently can't say for sure whether the recorded or written version that is being circulated on social media has been altered," a ministry spokeswoman told dpa in Berlin.”
Slovak FM meets Lavrov in Turkey. Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Antalya, Turkey, on March 2.
Chinese special envoy Li Hui visited Moscow on 2 March. There, he met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and discussed the possibility of settling the war in Ukraine. It is reported that Hui plans to visit the EU, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France for the same purpose.
Lithuania announces deadline for Russian-registered cars to leave country. According to Lithuanian Customs, drivers of vehicles with Russian license plates must apply for Lithuanian registration, or leave the country "and the entire territory of the European Union" by March 11.
Just having a bit of fun…
Ruslan Trad: Clashes between the FSB and an armed group are reported in the town of Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia. The fight started at 19:00 local time and lasted for several hours. It is known that a counter-terrorist operation has been introduced in part of the town. Eyewitnesses report loud machine gun bursts in the city limits, as well as an explosion.
Me: most analysts familiar with the ‘republics’ of the Russian Federation have said repeatedly that if there is to be some sort of change in Russia today, it will be sparked by national dissidents in the republics and regions headed by governors who do not share in the benefits of the war in Ukraine. While it is true that some citizens in the poor rural Russian hinterland have increased their income because they have found work in the armaments industries, a large portion still have no access to proper services unless they are willing to pay for them. Income tax has increased to 10%, and there are other costs that have been passed onto Russian citizens because the central government has cut funds for services in the Russian budget by over 30%. Many analysts do not pay attention to the Russian rural areas because they don’t read local news outlets or have access to them.
Allied Support
US Treasury Secretary: Frozen Russian assets are no substitute for Ukraine aid. Any plan to seize or monetize frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine can not be considered a substitute for emergency Ukraine aid that has been stalled in Congress, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview, as reported by Bloomberg on March 1.
Rutte signs Dutch-Ukrainian long-term security agreement in Kharkiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a 10-year agreement on security cooperation between Ukraine and the Netherlands in Kharkiv, Zelensky announced on March 1.
Finnish minister calls on West to find funds 'immediately' to boost arms supplies to Ukraine. "Funds to support arms for Ukraine must be found immediately," Hakkanen noted, saying that “Europe has not realized the seriousness of the war through the eyes of history.”
Ukrainian exporting companies will be able to apply for export credit guarantees from the Swedish Export Credit Corporation, Swedish National Export Credits Guarantee Board (EKN) reports. The guarantees will apply to exports to Ukraine that can contribute to its development and prosperity. Special export credit guarantees make investments in Ukraine simpler and less risky for Swedish companies.
Hungarian parliament speaker signs off on Sweden's NATO bid. Hungarian parliament speaker Sandor Lezsak has signed off on Sweden's accession to NATO after Hungary's legislature ratified it earlier this week, Reuters reported on March 2, citing the parliament's voting records.
Biden, Italian PM Meloni to hold talks amid Ukraine concerns. U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni at the White House on March 1, amid challenges faced by the Democratic administration in garnering support from House Republicans for legislation aimed at providing assistance to Ukraine. Meloni will be in Toronto on March 2.
US airdrops of aid into Gaza have begun. The United States has begun air-dropping humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to two US officials. President Joe Biden said Friday that “aid flowing to Gaza is nowhere nearly enough.”
Dietmar Pichler: Agents of Influence & Useful Idiots
We need to talk about 'Agents of Influence' and 'useful idiots' when discussing foreign information interference. These individuals not only have a significant reach but also operate undetected by anti-disinformation measures that primarily focus on social media and troll farms.
Who are they? They can be parts of (in many cases, former) politics, diplomacy, journalism, activism, business, and academia. What unites them: They propagate (more or less subtly) the narratives of authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran, and many others.
In some cases, they spread their narratives quite subtly; in other cases, it is obvious and ridiculous propaganda. In my opinion, the subtle propagandistic, anti-Western narratives are even more dangerous because they reach the center of society as well.
Are they paid? In most cases, we just don't know. Some have business interests in the autocratic countries they advocate for; others are "sponsored" In some cases, ideological views and a portion of naivety are sufficient to serve as a "useful" idiot for the dictators of the world
What also unites many of them is a quite thin skin when confronted with criticism. On one hand, they claim that they are "silenced" and "limited in their freedom of speech"; on the other hand, they tend to sue people who criticize, debunk, and expose them.
What makes them particularly valuable, for instance, for the Kremlin?
Their reputation, influence, reach, and the fact that they are not anonymous bots or trolls online give them an enormous impact on public opinion.
Their activities are less noticeable than coordinated troll networks or bot attacks to those observing foreign information interference. However, these networks frequently spread the content of these agents of influence and useful idiots on social media.
Another challenge regarding these kinds of propagandists is that traditional media literacy education does not protect societies from their propaganda. They are considered "experts" (if no context is given) and reach their audiences through traditional media, universities, events.
How to identify them? It's not about one questionable statement. It's the constant one-sided view in favor of a certain regime, the repetition of long-debunked myths and fakes, and, importantly, what they don't say is just as crucial as what they do say.
For instance, when they propagate "negotiations with Russia," this is often combined with a twisted version of the events in 2014, justifying the Russian invasion. "I condemn the Russian invasion, but" then follows what they really want to communicate.
What they almost always leave out is the constant imperialistic and genocidal rhetoric by Russian politicians and the terror of the occupation regime. Their narrative is: It is about NATO and the "human rights of people in Donbas".
What is quite interesting is that the united anti-Western propaganda coalition seems to also have the same useful idiots/agents of influence.
There are individuals who advocate for Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela at the same time; there is a huge overlap of messages.
Speaking of which…
Olga Lautman: Just so everyone understands how Russian disinformation and propaganda works. This just crossed the wires based on Kremlin loyalist David Sachs posting some bs. As if he directs foreign policy in U.S. or is part of the U.S. government. I would laugh if it wasn’t serious.
Another story which is all the rage on Kremlin Telegram is that more and more Finns are rushing to cross the border to live in Russia because of ‘fascism’ in the West. Yes, you read that correctly. This absurdity was stated by Finnish ‘journalist’ Kosti Heiskanen. Just to give you an idea about ‘jounalists’ and ‘artists’ who are more than willing to push Russian narratives, in the photo below (as published by Clara Statello) the street artist Jorit was pictured in Sochi along with other Italians working for Russian media. Also in the photo: Andrea Lucidi, who is making his career peddling Russian propaganda.
In its annual report, Estonian intelligence included a section dedicated to the Russian ‘Press Tours’: journalists from Western countries are invited to ‘visit’ Donbas and Moscow so they can ‘give the other side of the story’. The issue of who is paying for all this remains to be made public. Lucidi has admitted to receiving 3000 euro for his work for the Russians.
Programming notes…
This is wild. I had read a little about this but found that WSJ investigated it.