Mar 31: Buonasera Mag
Day 401: Bakmut RUattacks nukes China RUeco RUgas Zelensky UAgdp Trump UATrainHospital Gershkovich GER US IOC cyber RUdisinfo A&Ps Khara Fallon UKDef Kuleba Botchenko Betsa Carrer Kapparov
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Russian assault on Bakhmut continues with 'partial success,' Ukraine still holds the city. The Russian military has had "partial success" in its ongoing assault on Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian military still holds the embattled city, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on March 29.
Reuters reporters commented on the decrease of Russian attacks:
The average number of daily Russian attacks on the frontline reported by Ukraine’s general staff has declined for four straight weeks since the beginning of March, to 69 in the past seven days from 124 in the week of March 1-7. Just 57 attacks were reported on Wednesday.
Reuters journalists near the front west of Bakhmut and further north also reported a notable decline in the intensity of Russian attacks last week.
Reznikov: Counteroffensive planned in several areas in spring. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview with Estonian television channel Err.ee that the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces is planning a counteroffensive in several areas in spring.
China said its military was willing to work with the Russian military to strengthen strategic communication and coordination, the Chinese defence ministry said on March 30. The two countries would work together to implement global security initiatives, Reuters reports Tan Kefei, a spokesperson at the Chinese defence ministry, said at a regular press conference.
The Russian Armed Forces is distributing a Protective Candle to each soldier: "Light it up in combat, it keeps evil spirits away, takes away fear, and you won't have to worry about bullets." (Monique: Great way to protect against Ukrainian fire.)
Putin has admitted that sanctions imposed on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine could bring about “negative” consequences for the country, but insisted Moscow was adapting to the penalties. Putin, in a televised meeting with the government, said:
The sanctions imposed against the Russian economy in the medium term could really have a negative impact.
Russian authorities continue to display nuclear weapons amid rising tensions with the West and a 13-month-long war with Ukraine. On Wednesday, March 29, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the start of command and staff exercises using Yars missile systems, a key element of the Russian nuclear triad.
The war is killing the labor force, depriving the Russian economy of those who could be engaged in productive labor, increasing the well-being of their families and the population as a whole. And it's not just that about a million people fled the country, fleeing the mobilization and the repressive regime. The employment of men in the field of military security increased in 2022 by almost 400,000 people, Bloomberg Economics estimates based on Rosstat data.
Russia is forcing Western companies exiting its market to make a donation to the country — and it's making it harder for them to leave. Foreign investors exiting Russia must donate at least 10% of the sale proceeds of their assets to the state. The new rule applies to investors from "unfriendly countries" that imposed sanctions against Russia. There are over 2,000 applications from companies seeking approval to exit the Russian market, per FT.
Gas production at the largest fields in Western Siberia will fall by a third by 2040 due to the depletion of easily recoverable reserves, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov warned the government. In 2023, Russia will extract 468 billion cubic meters of gas in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and by 2040 the figure will be reduced to 255 billion cubic meters.
Air Force: Ukraine needs 4th-generation fighter jets, no time to waste. Ukraine urgently needs fourth-generation modern fighter jets, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on March 29.
Zelensky invites China's Xi Jinping to Ukraine. "We are ready to see him here," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Associated Press published on March 29. "I want to speak with him."
Kyiv suggests that Western oil companies should contribute to post-war rebuilding since they made big profits in light of the Russian aggression on Ukraine. Apparently, this refers to BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Total, & Shell, whose 2022 revenues were ~$200 billion.
National Bank of Ukraine revises GDP growth forecast for 2023. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects Ukraine's GDP to grow by 1% in 2023, Forbes reported on March 29. The NBU originally forecasted a 0.3% growth in 2023.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, has said Moscow will continue to give the US advance notice about its missile tests despite suspending participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty, reversing a statement he made just yesterday.
Reuters: Germany to provide additional 12 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. Germany has approved additional military aid for Ukraine worth 12 billion euros, Reuters reported on March 29. The aid package comprises 3.2 billion euros that will be distributed in 2023, as well as credit lines worth 8.8 billion euros that will be allocated between 2024 and 2032.
The United States has become the largest supplier of oil to Europe instead of Russia. According to Eurostat, 18% of EU oil imports came from the US in December, CNN reports . Before the start of the war in Ukraine, the United States, at 13%, was far behind Russia, which provided 31% of European imports. Exports of American oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), increased last year by 22% compared to 2021 and reached a record 3.6 million barrels per day.
Four bankers who helped Putin’s close friend, Sergey Roldugin (Putin’s wallet), move millions of francs through Swiss bank accounts have been convicted of lacking diligence in financial transactions. The executives – three Russians and one Swiss – helped Roldugin, who is godfather to Putin’s eldest daughter Maria, deposit millions of francs in Swiss bank accounts between 2014 and 2016.
President Zelensky addressed the Austiran parliament via video link, thanking Austria for its humanitarian aid and help with projects such as clearing landmines. Austria says its neutrality prevents it from military involvement in the conflict and while it supports Ukraine politically it cannot send the country weapons in its fight against the Russian invasion. MPs from the pro-Russia, far-right Freedom Party walked out during Zelensky’s speech, leaving placards protesting that it violated Austria’s neutrality.
Poland discusses creation of coalition to boycott 2024 Olympics over Russian participation. "Such a decision should be made in a wider coalition of countries, and only then, if it is possible to go ahead with a broad front, it will be possible to talk about tough decisions and recommendations," said Marcin Pszydach, head of the Polish presidential foreign policy bureau.
FINLAND CLEARS LAST OBSTACLE- TURKEY RATIFIES FINLAND’S NATO MEMBERSHIP
Russia Detains WSJ Journalist, Evan Gershkovich
Russia’s State Security Service (FSB) said Thursday that it had detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich while he was on assignment in the central city of Yekaterinburg, according to state-run media outlet RIA Novosti. This is the first case of the detention of a journalist since Nicholas Daniloff's arrest in 1986.
Gershkovich, a U.S. citizen, was involved in the collection of “secret information” about a Russian defense company and a criminal case on espionage charges had been opened against him, RIA Novosti reported, citing the FSB. According to Kommersant, the journalist will be taken to Moscow and arrested in the Lefortovo court. The case is being handled by the central office of the FSB.
Russia’s FM spokesperson Maria Zakharova posted about Gershkovich’s detention on her official Telegram account:
What an employee of the American edition of The Wall Street Journal was doing in Ekaterinburg has nothing to do with journalism. Unfortunately, this is not the first time that the status of a “foreign correspondent”, a journalistic visa and accreditation are used by foreigners in our country to cover up activities that are not journalism. This is not the first well-known westerner to be “grabbed by the hand”.
Shaun Walker of The Guardian, reports:
Peskov now says WSJ's @evangershkovich was "caught red-handed". The speed and certainty which this is progressing suggests it was ordered from the top, rather than snowballing local case. Looks a lot like hostage taking to increase Russia's "exchange pool" for prisoner swaps.
Last week in Slovenia was told high-level negotiations underway on an exchange for two deep-cover Russian illegals arrested there. But that they had stalled for unclear reasons. Well, now Russia has another American to trade. Awful.
Statement: Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
We are deeply concerned over Russia’s widely-reported detention of a U.S. citizen journalist. We are in contact with the Wall Street Journal on this situation. Whenever a U.S. citizen is detained abroad, we immediately seek consular access, and seek to provide all appropriate support.
In the strongest possible terms, we condemn the Kremlin’s continued attempts to intimidate, repress, and punish journalists and civil society voices.
THE GRAND JURY MOVES TO INDICT DONALD TRUMP
Moscow increasingly launching cyberattacks on Europe – research
Russia’s cyberwar on Ukraine largely failed and Moscow is increasingly targeting Kyiv’s European allies, according to US and French analysts.
French defence firm Thales said in a report on Wednesday that Russia was hitting Poland, the Nordic and Baltic countries with an arsenal of cyber weapons aiming to sow divisions and promote anti-war messages.
Microsoft said in a threat assessment earlier this month that Russian actors had launched attacks in at least 17 European countries in the first six weeks of this year.
“In the third quarter of 2022, Europe was dragged into a high-intensity hybrid cyberwar at a turning point in the conflict,” said Pierre-Yves Jolivet, Thales vice president for cyber solutions.
Jolivet said countries outside Ukraine were suffering a “massive wave” of DDoS attacks, when a server is flooded with requests that crash the network. These attacks were increasingly carried out by “hacktivist” groups aligned with the Kremlin rather than official groups, and they aimed to sow chaos rather than destroy infrastructure, Thales said.
Five Russian Nationals and Two Oil Traders Charged in Global Sanctions Evasion and Money Laundering Scheme
A 12-count indictment was unsealed today in federal court in Brooklyn, New York charging five Russian nationals, Yury Orekhov, Artem Uss, Svetlana Kuzurgasheva, also known as “Lana Neumann,” Timofey Telegin and Sergey Tulyakov with various charges related to a global procurement, smuggling and money laundering network. Also charged were Juan Fernando Serrano Ponce, also known as “Juanfe Serrano” and Juan Carlos Soto, who brokered illicit oil deals for Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, as part of the scheme. On October 17, 2022, Orekhov was arrested in Germany and Uss was arrested in Italy, both at the request of the United States, and will undergo extradition proceedings.
Russian disinformation operation alert
Various russian Telegram channels share a video that allegedly shows Ukrainians stopping a car with a woman and a child (the child is not seen), engaging in a verbal alteration, and then shooting at the car. OSINT investigators, Tatarigami_UA and GeoConfirmed UKR, have both been working on the video in question and have concluded that it is a disinformation video put out by the Russians on various Telegram channels. It has now been confirmed by the Russians themselves.
Gabriele Carrer, Europe Fights Back Against Chinese and Russian “Elite Capture”- CEPA
China and Russia have courted and coopted European businesses, hiring prominent retired politicians and influential businessmen to win access to key technologies. Italy is leading the counterattack.
Chinese investors wanted to pour more than a billion euros into Italy’s “Motor Valley” in Emilia-Romagna — home to the world-famed Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati, and Ducati brands. Another group of Chinese businesses took over the military drone company Alpi Aviation.
Both ventures are now blocked — suggesting that Europe is fighting back at “elite capture,” or the tactic of engaging locally prominent individuals for strategic advantages. European governments are responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s increasing authoritarian turn by reinforcing their defenses.
During the Cold War, only a handful of Warsaw Pact-based companies operated in the West, limiting the desire and ability to offer jobs or board appointments to retired politicians and other influential individuals. In contrast, “such opportunities are plentiful” today, according to Clive Hamilton and Marieke Ohlbert, authors of “Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World.” [continue reading]
Programming note…
Madi Kapparov recounts the background, events and significance of the First Chechen War (Dec 1994- Aug 1996) under Yeltsin, and the Second Chechen War (Aug 1999- Apr 2009) under Putin.