EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Rescue operations end in Odesa with 12 killed, including 5 children, after Russian drone attack, and 20 injured. Search and rescue operations at an apartment building hit in a March 2 Russian drone attack that killed 12 civilians, including five children, concluded at around 9 p.m. local time on March 3, according to a Facebook post by the Internal Affairs Ministry.
Governor: At least 16 injured in Russian attack on Kurakhove. At least 16 people have been injured after Russian forces launched what was most likely an aerial guided bomb on the city center of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadim Filashkin reported on March 3.
GUR cyber specialists hacked the servers of the Russian Defense Ministry. As a result, the Ukrainian intelligence service gained access to the information security and encryption software used by the department, as well as to an array of secret service documents of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
President Zelensky on the blockade at the Polish border:
It is necessary to find a solution to the situation on the Polish border, which has long gone beyond the limits of economics and morality. It is simply impossible to explain how the difficulties of a bleeding country can be used in an internal political struggle.
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainska Pravda: The Russians are concentrating significant reserves near Novomykhailivka on the Novopavlivka (formerly Mariinka) front. They are sending reinforcements to take the village, Dmytro Lykhovyi, the spokesman of the Tavriia Operative-Strategic Group, reported on the air of Radio Liberty. Dmytro Lykhovyi reported that Novopavlivka is currently one of the hottest areas on the contact line.
The defence ministers and commanders-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the UK held a telephone conversation concerning the situation at the contact line and defence cooperation on 4 March, Rustem Umierov, Ukrainian Defence Minister, posted on Twitter (X).
"We also discussed opportunities to implement within the Maritime Capability Coalition. Ukraine’s success in destroying russia’s fleet has to be scaled up. Thus we need to increase Ukraine’s use of drones," Rustem Umierov added.
Four UAVs reportedly fell on the territory of an oil depot in Feodosia during the attack on March 3. It is reported that as a result of the attack, the pumping pipeline was damage and a fire broke out which took over an hour to eliminate.
Russia’s Sergey Kotov patrol vessel hit near Crimea. Ukrainian GUR confirms the destruction of Russian Project 22160 "Serhiy Kotov" large patrol ship by units of GROUP 13 with the help of MAGURA V5 naval drones. The cost of the sunken ship is ~$65 million, they add. It sustained heavy damage and possibly even sank, Russian media report. The Kerch Bridge has been closed for 9h already. According to Telegram channel “Crimean Wind” it needs to be “investigated”.
Russian media report that a Russian military airbase in Hvardiis'ke was attacked by 3 cruise missiles on March 1. The taxiway was reportedly damaged while also wounding 3 Russian servicemen. The 37th Mixed Aviation Regiment is reportedly stationed at this airbase.
In the Bilhorod region, a fuel storage depot near the village of Gubkin was attacked by Ukrainian drones. A fire emerged, based on Russian media reports.
Today at 16:00, the Russian command center of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment was hit in occupied Zaporizhzia by HIMARS. It is reported that many officers gathered, including the commander.
The GUR confirms that a railroad bridge over the Chapayevka River in the Samara region of Russia has been blown up. Due to damage to the tracks, trains cannot use it anymore.
The report of the GUR - Budanov. Our special actions. We need a clear result in the destruction of Russian military infrastructure and logistics. A bigger result. And it will be.
SBU report by Malyuk. He reported on our counteraction to Russian sabotage groups - these murderers who are terrorizing our border areas. Malyuk also reported on countering collaborators. There are good results in neutralizing these people.
There was a report from the foreign intelligence agency, Lytvynenko. It was about sensitive international areas and Russia's current plans. We have an understanding of what documents are on the enemy's desk, what his next plan is. We will counteract them.
Behind the Lines
WSJ: Drones and U.S.-made computer chips are reportedly flowing from China to Russia through Central Asian trade routes, highlighting the challenge of restricting supplies to Moscow's war effort even after two years.
Trade routes passing through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are being utilized for the transfer of dual-use goods, despite U.S. efforts to impose sanctions. Dual-use goods are those that can have both civilian and military applications.
The Central Asian trade route is seen as a significant pathway for goods such as microelectronics, car parts, and luxury items, both for military use in Ukraine and personal consumption. The flow of these goods has increased since the war began, with Chinese exports of targeted dual-use goods rising to $1.3 billion in 2023. Despite sanctions, Russia managed to import $8.8 billion worth of dual-use goods from around the world in the first 10 months of 2023, only 10% lower than the pre-sanctions period. The trade reflects the challenges in restricting the movement of military supplies from China to Russia.
WSJ: Russia's spy network expands after full-scale invasion. Officials say that Putin's decision to leave Russia's borders open following the February invasion allowed FSB spies to join the thousands of Russians who fled the country to avoid mobilization.
Orbánwill meet Trump this Friday in Florida, Reuters reports.
“It is not gambling but actually betting on the only sensible chance, that we in Hungary bet on the return of President Trump,” he told an economic forum on Monday.
“The only chance of the world for a relatively fast peace deal is political change in the United States, and this is linked to who is the president.”
In this week’s episode of Kremlin File, Olga and I were joined by investigator Neil Barnett, CEO Istok Associates, specialised in intelligence, to talk about Russia’s plans that have been in the making for at least 19 years amongst other issues pertaining to the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s networks in the States and Europe and strategic security.
Official: Poland holds informal talks with EU on exemptions for farmers. Warsaw is conducting informal negotiations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on granting Polish farmers possible exemptions to the EU's Green Deal, Poland's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said on March 3.
More than 20,000 soldiers from thirteen countries are taking part in a major NATO exercise in the north of host countries Norway, Finland and Sweden from today. The exercise is called Nordic Response 2024, in which Finland and Sweden are now also participating as the newest member states.
Shmyhal: 8 taxpayers per soldier needed to fund military. The Ukrainian government needs eight taxpayers per soldier to ensure the state budget has enough funding for the military, Denys Shmyhal said during a press conference on March 4.
Max Seddon: Wearing a Kim Jong-Un-style tunic, Dmitry Medvedev says "Ukraine is definitely Russia" and shows off a map of what he thinks should be left of Ukraine. Spoiler: not much! "Our geostrategic space has been indivisible since the time of the ancient Russian state," he says.
As posted on Medvedev’s Telegram channel, the map below illustrates what Russia would like to achieve in their wet dreams.
A civilian US air force employee has been charged in Nebraska with transmitting classified information about Russia’s war with Ukraine on a foreign online dating platform, according to the US justice department. David Franklin Slater, 63, allegedly shared details about military targets and Russian capabilities on an online messaging platform with an unindicted co-conspirator who claimed to be a woman living in Ukraine and called him “my secret informant love.”Slater was expected to make an initial court appearance on Tuesday.
An object that fell in a field in Poland, a Nato member, was a weather balloon, it has been confirmed.
The Fakt tabloid reported earlier on Monday that a military object had fallen in a field near the town of Milakowo, but police in nearby Ostroda clater onfirmed to Reuters that the object was a weather balloon.
“I confirm that this morning we received a report that an object fell in the fields near Milakowo, now we can confirm that it was a meteorological balloon,” a police spokesperson said.
Meanwhile in Russia
A group of more than 40 countries reiterated calls for Russia to allow an independent international investigation into the death of opposition leaderAlexei Navalny in prison. The call was made by EU ambassador Lotte Knudsen at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on behalf of all 27 EU states and 16 other countries, including Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States and Ukraine, according to Reuters.
Russian communists call for investigation into West's possible role in Stalin's death.The Communists of Russia party has urged the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and top prosecutors to investigate potential Western intelligence involvement in the 1953 death of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, the Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported.
Me: Russian propaganda networks are working overtime to feul the up-coming presidential ‘election’ by disseminating this theme aimed at the domestic Communist electorate. Historians chronicalling Stalin’s death,like Robert Conquest, Brian Crozier and Paul Johnson, say he was extremely physically ill, and mentally deranged by the end.
After Hitler’s attack on Russia in June 1941, he had barricaded himself in his Kremlin offices, created his own private army to protect himself, and rarely left the premises until his death on 5 March 1953. This propaganda theme, for the domestic audience, and disinformation for Western readers, was put out today because it is anniversary of his death. The Kremlin has sought to resuscitate Stalin’s image to bolster Communist support for the war in Ukraine.
Stalin was responsible for the murder of 15 million Russian citizens even before WW2 had started (other estimates based on German Wehrmacht documents put the number at 20 million victims), expanded the slave labour gulag system, which was used to increase industrial production and to instil fear in the Russian population, order the forced collectivisation of Russian farms and those in other states of the USSR, and had total control over every single all aspect of life in the Soviet Union. There is no comparable historical figure that brought death and terror to the scale and extent Stalin did: he was a monster.
Russian propagandist Soloyev visited Syria. He interviewed Bashar al-Assad there - Solovyev's Telegram channel. They discussed that both Russia and Hamas acted out of "self-defense" and the invasion of the neighboring state "allowed Russia to avoid encirclement from the south”.
UN Nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said he intends to discuss Russia’s plans for theZaporizhzhia nuclear power plant it is occupying in Ukraine when he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Grossi is due to leave for Russia on Tuesday, he told a press conference on the opening day of a quarterly meeting of his agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors at which envoys from various countries marked the second anniversary of Russian forces seizing the Zaporizhzhia plant, Reuters reports.
There are issues related to the future operational status of the plant. Is it going to be started or not? What is the idea? What is the idea in terms of the external power supply lines, since what we see is extremely fragile and thin?
Canada imposes sanctions on 6 Russian officials over Navalny’s death. The new sanctions will be imposed on six Russian officials, including senior officials and employees of Russia's prosecution, judicial, and correctional services.
Allied Support
The Canadian parliament has called for the speedy transfer of all CRV7 missiles in the Canadian Armed Forces to Ukraine. Canada has a surplus of ~83.000 CRV7 missiles that are due to be decommissioned.
Within two weeks, the European Commission could already provide an official proposal regarding the use of windfall profits of frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine. It is possible that the money will go to the procurement of military equipment first.
"We’ve been saying the windfall profits would be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine – but there needs to be a country to reconstruct in the first place, so such a step would make absolute sense," an EU diplomat said.
Britain has urged a reluctant Berlin to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv despite an embarrassing leak to Russian television of a top-secret call involving German air force officers who said UK troops were “on the ground” in Ukraine.
Rather than publicly criticise Germany over the leak, Britain said it was for Berlin to investigate. Instead the UK toughened up its own lobbying on the Taurus missiles, which have a 300-mile range, twice that of Anglo-French Storm Shadow/Scalp weapons system already given to Kyiv.
Lithuania to join Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine.Lithuania will contribute to the Czech-led allied initiative to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds from outside of Europe, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte confirmed on March 4 after a phone call with her Czech counterpart, Petr Fiala.
Poland plans to ask the EU to put sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products, the country’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said on Monday during a visit to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius.
“Latvia decided to implement an embargo on the import of (agricultural) products from Russia,” he told a news conference last week. “We will analyse the case of Latvia, and I do not rule out that Poland will take an appropriate initiative.”
The Biden administration extended sanctions against Russia for one year which were imposed back in 2014 and onwards due to the illegal annexation of Crimea and threats to Ukraine's peace, security, and territorial integrity.
Ukraine expects the European Commission to present a negotiation framework for Kyiv’s accession to the EU “no later than 12 March”, deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna has been quoted as saying. The European Commission recommended last November that formal EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova should begin, which its president, Ursula von der Leyen, described as a response to “the call of history”.
Speaker Mike Johnson has met privately with House Republicans to discuss a new bipartisan foreign aid package for Ukraine, with House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul leading the effort. While Johnson hasn't taken a position yet, proponents believe he will allow the bill to come to the floor after the government funding legislation is finalized. The proposed $66 billion military aid plan includes border restrictions and has been met with GOP divisions. Proponents hope to act swiftly given Russia's gains in Ukraine, but significant challenges remain in securing bipartisan support. It could come to the floor for a vote late March or April.
Today is Super Tuesday: coverage in tomorrow’s E-Stories to follow.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will win the Republican presidential primary in Washington, DC, CNN projects. Haley’s victory – her first of the primary – comes on the eve of what is expected to be a decisive week in the GOP primary, as she attempts one last stand as the race turns national.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that former President Donald Trump should appear on the ballot in Colorado in a decision that follows months of debate over whether the frontrunner for the GOP nomination violated the “insurrectionist clause” included in the 14th Amendment.
The opinion is a massive victory for Trump, vanquishing one of the many legal threats that have both plagued and animated his campaign against President Joe Biden. The decision has no impact on the four ongoing criminal cases that Trump is facing, including the federal election subversion case that covers some of the same conduct surrounding January 6, 2021.
The decision, which marked the first time the high court had weighed Trump’s actions on January 6, landed a day before Super Tuesday, when 16 states and territories, including Colorado, will hold nominating contests.
Moscow intercepted German generals and published their conversation. Confidants of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin (71) are now talking about a war against Germany, and Berlin is embarrassed. How do others view us? BILD has asked around in the West.
Creator: Maxim Shemetov | Credit: REUTERS
John Sipher led CIA headquarters in Europe and Asia for 28 years. He does not consider Germany to be a danger to its allies, but says: The Federal Republic is not living up to its “responsibility towards the West, given its power and central position.”
Germany made a similarly fatal and far-reaching mistake in its relationship with Russia as the USA did in Iraq: “Just like the US secret services, which made a fatal analytical mistake with regard to the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, so too did the assessment of the German political leadership and the Intelligence analysts that they could be collaborating with Russia are completely wrong.”
Sipher takes credit primarily with the German intelligence services: “For far too long, the German secret services arrogantly believed that they understood Russia better than everyone else.”
Nathalie Vogel researches at the Institute of World Politics in Washington DC. She is one of the world's leading experts on Kremlin disinformation. Vogel was once in Moscow for NATO, but she says the Germans are too receptive to threatening games from Moscow.
Moscow is taking full advantage of the wiretapping affair: “This operation is also aimed at attacking the connection in the Western alliance and dissuading allies from supporting Ukraine by creating completely absurd threats.”
Meaning: an alleged escalation that would turn Germany into a warring party. Vogel: “The Kremlin also regularly uses such intimidation techniques against our allies in the Baltics – but unsuccessfully there.”
He has hope that Germany will now turn the corner: “Germany only woke up late and recognized the threat from Russia and the prospect of a large-scale conventional war on European soil.”
Then comes his BUT: “We still see a lot of the old, traditional way of thinking, especially in the Chancellery. Scholz appears to be afraid of Russia, but in a way seen in Berlin before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He believes that Taurus rockets will mean World War III. (…) We have already heard similar excuses about HIMARS and Patriot systems.”
Rob Dannenberg served as chief of operations for CIA's Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division and chief of the Information Operations Center before retiring from the Agency. He served as managing director and head of the Office of Global Security for Goldman Sachs, and as director of International Security Affairs at BP. He is now an independent consultant on geopolitical and security risk.
Dear Speaker Johnson,
We find ourselves as a country and society at an inflection point in history. The forces of darkness are on the march and are sensing victory. These forces are led by Vladimir Putin who just days ago, threatened nuclear war and an end to civilization, this shortly after silencing the most influential voice of opposition in the Russian Federation. Putin’s allies and surrogates in Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang, Damascus, Caracas, Havana and in organizations such Hamas, the Houthi, ISIS and Al Qaeda and elsewhere see the indecision and sense the lack of resolve in the powers of freedom led by the United States. They eagerly now anticipate the possibility of bringing an end to civilization as built by the western democracies and replacing it with political or theological autocracy.
Rarely in history has one individual been in a position to influence history at such a critical juncture. You are in that position now. There is a bill on support for the Ukraine which has been passed in the Senate with bipartisan support that is in your power and authority to bring to the floor of the House for a vote. This bill would pass also with bipartisan support and send a clear signal of support to Ukraine, which is now the frontline of freedom and civilization. It would also send a clear message to our allies that the United States of America is still the “shining city on the hill” that it had been when in the first and second world wars the US stood up for freedom and civilization. It is in your power to secure your place in history.
Sir, this is a binary choice. You can be remembered in history as an insignificant figure who was more interested in protecting his position in government than doing the right thing for US security interests and civilization. Or you can be remembered as an individual who saw the big picture and did the right thing and put yourself in position to be remembered in history. Ukrainians who have sacrificed so much against Russian aggression and brutality now face the prospect of losing the ability to defend their country (and by extension, the West) for want of military, financial and political support which is in our position as the leader of the free world to deliver. Indeed, in your power to deliver.
No one is under the illusion this would be an easy decision for you. But as Speaker you have many responsibilities and priorities. None are more important than this decision. Moreover, it could provide you and your Republican colleagues the opportunity to put a challenge in front of the President. Bring this bill to the floor of the House for a vote. Put it in front of the President for signature and challenge him on national television to bring together the leaders of the world’s democracies to respond to Putin and the axis of disruption that he has assembled with the clear messages that the free peoples of the world will not let the aggression against Ukraine stand. The West resolves to bring its political, military and economic power to bear to protect the frontier of civilization and that the whole world should heed the message that the powers of darkness shall not prevail.
The choice is yours Mr. Speaker. The world is watching. Do not be found wanting.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
If I may, there’s something I need to get off my chest.
As democracy remains under siege, it has been frustrating to watch how the press covers politics these days.
I am reminded by lessons that came to me during the Nixon years as a CBS News correspondent, which I’ll add here:
1. Enough with Both-sides-ism When one side lies intentionally and repeatedly, they are no longer entitled to the benefit of the doubt. They should be held to account, right away. Do not simply repeat the narratives they spew.
2. Prioritize Live Fact-Checking Rigorous and robust fact-checking is the best defense against misinformation, intentional lies, and deflection. If Trump says the sky is green, the story isn’t that the sky is now green; the story is that the sky is still blue and Trump got it wrong.
3. Ask Lawmakers Hard Questions Ask about the fundamental principles of democracy. Push them to go on the record that Biden won the 2020 election. Ask if they support the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
This writing is not to offer any claim of knowing it all. Your correspondent has made his share of mistakes, but after more than seven decades I believe I have picked up a few useful guideposts.
Good journalism is always worth it. Our democracy depends on it.
Dmitry really is like a little Kim Jong Un wanna be - that outfit!!! I would laugh even harder at the disinformation if it wasn't so serious. That letter to Mike Johnson. I doubt he will take it on board since he is bowing to Leader Trump but it is so well written.
Dmitry really is like a little Kim Jong Un wanna be - that outfit!!! I would laugh even harder at the disinformation if it wasn't so serious. That letter to Mike Johnson. I doubt he will take it on board since he is bowing to Leader Trump but it is so well written.
Thanks again for the overall coverage!
Zelensky is just sick!!