Mar 7: E-Stories
Day741 KulebaNATO Odesa Kharkiv CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Davis Aseyev ISW Weiss Gic Peskov OCCRP Dermenzhi MoDEstonia Speck Haley Walker DWTesla UAWorldKerson OSINTUri
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Hi Everyone, I’ll be posting information about the Russian economy and financial standing if I can verify it through independent sources and analysts. Most of the figures pertaining to Russia’s financial and economic health are based on the data they release, which means they are bunk.
Take a few minutes to watch and listen: Ukrainian FM Dymtro Kuleba explains clearly why the Russian theme of ‘Ukrainian NATO membership’, and ‘NATO expansion’ used to justify Russia’s war on Ukraine is simply a myth.
Stories we’re following…
Overnight, Russia conducted a large Shahed drone attack. In total 42 Shahed drones were launched into Ukraine of which 38 were shot down. In addition 5 S-300 ballistic missiles were launched. Damage is being determined.
International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi said that he would discuss the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant with Putin on Wednesday in Sochi, and that talks with other Russian authorities had been “tense”, Russian news agencies reported.
State news agency RIA cited Grossi has saying that he had been able to assess the situation around the Zaporizhzhia plant in southern Ukraine, which has been under Russian control since March 2022, Reuters reports.
Russia reportedly hit the Epicentr shopping mall in Nikopol, while civilians were present. At this time, the amount of victims is unknown yet.
Julia Davis: “War correspondent Dmitry Steshin admitted that Ukrainians in occupied regions are unhappy and blame Russia for invading Ukraine. Steshin says that Ukrainians who complain about an invasion of their country get their teeth knocked out by the Russians.”
Russia attacked Odesa on Wednesday with a missile while Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was visiting the city. The explosion occurred approximately 150 meters from the location of the Greek delegation. No one from the Greek delegation was injured. The attack killed five people, Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk told Ukrainian media outlets on March 6.
"We saw this blow today. You can see who we are dealing with, they don't care where they strike. I know there were victims today, I don't know all the details yet, but I know there are dead and wounded," Zelenskyi responded.
Stanislav Aseyev: Have you ever seen cities disappear? It’s like watching a candle melt away slowly: at night, Russian missiles rain down indiscriminately. With every day, there are fewer houses left. Eventually, even local grandmothers, ask soldiers: son, is it time for us to go? And where?
And then these disappeared towns join the ranks of Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka — piles of dust the Russians call “liberated.”
Combat Situation Update
Russian and Ukrainian forces clashed a total of 76 times over the course of Wednesday, 6 March, with Russian forces carrying out 75 airstrikes and five missile strikes and deploying multiple-launch rocket systems 65 times to attack Ukraine.
OSINT Uri: Satellite images taken from May 2021 to May 2023 of the Russian towed artillery storage area in Omsk which is now completely depleted. Now is the time to give Ukraine what the need to end the occupation of their sovereign land. The Russians are reaching the end of their capacity and we can save a generation of young Americans from fighting Russia in 5-years.
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 5.
Russian aircraft appear to be continuing to conduct a relatively high volume of glide bomb strikes in Ukraine despite Ukrainian officials’ reports that Ukrainian forces have downed several bomber aircraft in recent weeks.
Geolocated footage published on March 5 shows that Russian forces advanced in the fields south of Novomykhailivka (southwest of Donetsk City).
Russian forces continued to attack Ukrainian positions around Avdiivka but did not make any confirmed advances on March 5. Positional fighting continued on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line; northwest, west, and southwest of Bakhmut; and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on March 5, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in these areas.
Stanislav Aseyev: “The first thing you have to learn in the army is that you are now a professional. No one will learn this weapon for you, no one will throw a grenade for you, no one will figure out the navigation. All this is now only in your hands. And this is what Russia will also teach Europe.”
The commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Pavliuk, announced Ukraine's plan to launch counterattacks this year. The objectives include stabilizing the front line, regrouping and training units in need of restoration, forming a strike group, and conducting counteroffensive actions. Pavliuk reported successful progress, despite ongoing concentration of enemy forces in hotspots like Avdiivka, Chasov Yar, and Terny in the Lyman direction.
Media: Russian helicopter destroyed on Sergey Kotov vessel. In a conversation allegedly intercepted by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), a Russian commander claimed that the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov, reportedly destroyed near occupied Crimea on March 5, had a helicopter on board.
Military intelligence: Russia planned to install air defenses on Sergey Kotov vessel. Russian forces were planning to place an anti-aircraft missile system on the Sergey Kotov patrol vessel, reportedly destroyed on March 5, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Me: What Ishkolov is saying is not far-fetched: Russian soldiers, and those who have been in some way forced or tricked into fighting for Russia (see Indians who were arrested and sent to the front) cannot retreat. If they do, they are shot.
Behind the Lines
Media: Sweden to officially become NATO member on March 11. Sweden's flag will be raised at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on March 11 around noon, marking the official start of the country's membership in the alliance, the Swedish TV4 channel reported on March 6.
112 reports: A Ukrainian drone attacked the Mikhailovsky Mining and Processing Plant in Kursk, the largest iron-ore plants in Russia. A fuel tank is burning. Mikhailovsky GOK is the second enterprise in Russia after Lebedinsky GOK in terms of production of iron for metallurgy. Metalloinvest has confirmed it was a drone attack.
According to Russian channel ASTRA, an ammunition depot in the occupied Luhansk region caught fire as a result of shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine The depot, belonging to the 4th Tank Division, was reportedly hit by HIMARS approximately 1.5km from the village of Mostki.
Yoruk Isik: “One of the longest operating sanctions busting vessels, DEFLAGGED ship San Severus, which frequents Russian occupied ports of Ukraine & Georgia. transited Bosphorus, with a FALSE FLAG and likely WITHOUT INSURANCE, carrying stolen wheat from occupied Sevastopol en route to Syria.”
In occupied Berdyansk, Svitlana Samoilenko, the organizer of Putin's pseudo-elections in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzia region, was reportedly eliminated yesterday, according to the GUR. Samoilenko willingly collaborated with Russian authorities and was appointed to the Russian occupation administration. She held the position of Deputy Mayor for Economics, Agriculture, and Finance. Samoilenko's husband and adult son also serve the Russian occupiers.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian media: Blast at heating station in Russia's Tuva kills 1, injures 23. An explosion followed by a fire occurred on March 6 at a heating station in the town of Shagonar in Russia's Tuva Republic, TASS reported. According to the latest information, one person died in the hospital, and 23 were injured, TASS said.
Some 15 of them were hospitalized with burns and other injuries, and six of them are reportedly in serious condition, officials said. It remains unclear what caused the explosion. The investigative committee in the Tuva Republic launched a criminal case on the grounds of negligence.
Another drone strikes in Zheleznogorsk, Russia.
Dmitry Peskov: There is ‘democracy’ in Russia. Damn!…I had it here somewhere…hold on, lemme check my briefcase…no…I think I must have put in my jacket pocket…wait…did I leave it on the roof of my car next to my coffee…you know when I was getting in the car?
Boris Kovalchuk, who has headed Inter RAO for the last 15 years, will leave the company in the near future, Kommersant reports, citing interlocutors in the market. According to them, a few months ago a “principled decision” was made that Kovalchuk was “going for a promotion.”
Thus, the newspaper’s sources claim, the top manager can head Gazprom, Rosneft, become Deputy Prime Minister instead of Alexander Novak or the governor of St. Petersburg. Kommersant’s interlocutors do not know which of these options will ultimately be chosen.
Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that international criminal court arrest warrants issued for two of its commanders in Ukraine had no significance for Russia, and was a “provocation”. In separate news, she said that Moscow had never wanted conflict with Nato, the US, or Ukraine, but that threats made against it would not go unanswered, Reuters reports.
Alex Kokcharov: A Russian clothing brand has designed a new jacket inspired by Stalin’s, and advertises it with a clip shot amidst the ruins of a devastated city in Russian-occupied part of Ukraine and set to the tune of a song praising the dictator.
Reuters: Turkish oil terminal refuses Russian imports amid US sanctions. Global Terminal Services (GTS), which operates the Dortyol terminal, said it would not accept products from Russia any longer.
Hungarian FM: Orban to discuss 'achieving peace in Ukraine' with Trump during upcoming visit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban plans to discuss how to "achieve peace" in Ukraine during an upcoming visit with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told the Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti on March 6.
Allied Support
European Commission presents first-ever defense industrial strategy at EU level. The European Commission presented the first-ever European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS) at the EU level to support the competitiveness and readiness of the bloc’s defense industry, the commission’s press service announced on March 5.
Thierry Breton, the industry commissioner, underlined during the presentation of the strategy that Europe is facing an "existential threat," while foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned: “In response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the EU must bolster its defense capabilities.”
“[The strategy] is not an answer to the war in Ukraine, but rather a broader response to a strategic paradigm shift. It's a recognition that [defense] is a subject that's not going to go away for a while,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general and now a distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The aim is to get the EU — the world's second-largest economy — to finally begin punching its weight when it comes to defense.
TF1: French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné emphasized the critical need for European firmness in the face of the ongoing threat posed by Russia.
He highlighted the severe consequences for France and Europe if Ukraine were to fall, expressing concerns about the European Union's ability to come to an agreement. Séjourné stressed the importance of supporting Ukraine, stating that Vladimir Putin aims to test solidarity among European nations, and urged avoiding such a scenario by maintaining alliances, making bilateral agreements, and providing significant assistance to Ukraine.
Reuters: Czechs and Ukrainians are working tirelessly in the eastern Czech Republic to convert World War Two-era buildings into an arms and ammunition hub to aid Ukraine. This initiative is part of Europe's response to provide weapons to Ukraine following the delay in U.S. military aid. The Czech facility, owned by Excalibur Army, plays a crucial role in refurbishing and supplying arms for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, a coalition of countries is providing funds for 800.000 artillery shells being sourced through The Czech Republic for Ukraine's short term needs. Colonel Simon Wouda, chief of the Netherlands' Ukraine Taskforce, said that countries such as The Netherlands itself, Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Latvia and the United States, among others, are included in this coalition.
A senior Czech official said there are about ~2 million large calibre ammunition rounds available on the global market. This could benefit the direct needs of Ukraine while the EU is still scaling up production. An EU executive expects that the EU will reach a shell production of 1.4 million by the end of 2024. Which is almost a tripling of production compared to a year ago.
Latvia has decided to join the Czech initiative to purchase a total of 800.000 artillery shells for Ukraine, Latvian Minister of Defense Andris Spruds reports. "This is a critical capability to defeat Russia and we must do our utmost to support Ukraine," he said.
EU Energy Commissioner: Gas imports from Russia fall by 71% since 2021. The European Union's gas imports from Russia have decreased by 71% since 2021, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson announced on March 4, following an Energy Council meeting in Brussels.
Me: Estonia has one of the most robust IT systems in the world. This is very very good news. We could learn a lot from Estonia on how to make our systems safer: remember they were the target of a cyberattack in 2007 at the hands of the Russians, and their networks were knocked out for three weeks in some sectors. They learned how to avert these strikes.
Germany will contribute a 3-digit million sum to the procurement of artillery shells for Ukraine. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said that they would join the Czech initiative that involves purchasing 800,000 shells in countries outside the EU.
The transfer of 110 Bulgarian BTR-60's to Ukraine has begun. Their shipment began this morning and they will be transported in sets of 6. Although welcome, Ukraine would probably first need to perform repair/refurbishment due to the APC's bad state.
The U.S. is pressuring Europe to support the idea of confiscating frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's reconstruction, potentially freeing up over €250 billion. While the U.S. is backing this plan, European powers, including Germany, France, and Italy, are unconvinced due to legal, ethical, and political concerns.
Washington's determination has raised alarm among European governments, who fear spooking investors in the euro and possible retaliation from Moscow. The proposal, supported by the Biden administration, awaits a common position from the G7 later this year. The EU's current plan focuses on using the profits generated by the assets rather than full confiscation.
Britain is prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets in the UK on the basis that Russia will be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine at the end of the war, the UK foreign secretary David Cameron has said. He said the assets would be used as surety for the payment of the reparations. Cameron told peers on Tuesday night:
There is an opportunity to use something like a syndicated loan or a bond that effectively uses the frozen Russian assets as a surety to give that money to the Ukrianians knowing that we will recoup it when reparations are paid by Russia. That may be a better way of doing it. We are aiming for the maximum amount of G7 and EU unity on this but if we cannot get it I think we will have to move ahead with allies that want to take this action.
Latvia to ban the import of certain agricultural products from Russia and Belarus starting from 8 March. “Latvia, as a border state to Russia, wants to sever economic ties with the aggressor country as soon as possible,” states the announcement.
Lithuanian farmers complain about Russian, not Ukrainian grain. "These are impressive figures, with over 3 million tons of Russian grain having passed through Latvia and Lithuania combined in 2023," said Ausrys Macijauskas, the head of the Lithuania Association of Grain Growers.
US State Department to impose new sanctions on Wagner, Russian air force. The sanctions target the Wagner Group, the Russian Aerospace Forces, and other entities who engage in arms trade with North Korea and Iran.
Nikki Haley will be pulling out of the presidential nomination race. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley plans to end her presidential campaign, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters, a decision that will ensure that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. Haley made her decision after Super Tuesday, according to the Wall Street Journal who first reported the story.
Deportation and re-education: life in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine—Shawn Walker
The picture that Russian television will paint is almost as predictable as the final result: carefully curated images of grateful Ukrainians, delighted to be brought under Russian rule.
It will be a message to local people that there is no alternative to Russian control, and tell a story for people inside Russia of a supposedly happy population welcoming their new rulers. The narrative will also be specially curated for an audience of one – Putin – said a senior Ukrainian security official: “Most of all, the results will be about the elites demonstrating to the tsar that the people in his new territories really do love him.”
But the real story is very different, as shown by a Guardian investigation into life in one of the four areas partially annexed by Russia in 2022: the Zaporizhzhia region.
Dozens of interviews with current and former residents, as well as information from leaked Kremlin documents, suggests the election will be one more stage in Russia’s attempts to stamp its rule on the occupied territory, a paper-thin veneer of legitimacy to governance by coercion, terror and population transfers.
Russian authorities have used threats and violence since the first days of the occupation. Moscow’s troops took over around two-thirds of the Zaporizhzhia region in the first weeks of the war, rolling into the cities of Melitopol and Berdiansk without major fighting and taking control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. The frontline eventually settled about 20 miles south of Zaporizhzhia city, and has hardly shifted since.
In each town, one of the first acts of the Russian army on arrival was to detain local leaders and pressure them to work for the occupiers. Most mayors rejected the pressure and refused to collaborate.
In the town of Molochansk, with a prewar population of about 12,000 people, the Russians arrested mayor Iryna Lypka, along with her deputy, secretary and driver. She was put in an airless cell in the basement of a police station in the nearby town of Tokmak. [continue]
This is a public first: In a note, The Ministry of Defense of the Italian Republic invites Professor Alessando Orsini (LUISS, Rome) “to show greater scientific rigor and a more appropriate sense of responsibility, refraining from spreading false information that is harmful to national security.”
Two things to understand here:
Orsini has been a vocal supporter of Russia for over 2 years, and has appeared on public television for the full first year of Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine to confuse and misinform viewers. It goes beyond the ‘neo-realist’ theories of international relations. He now appears sporadically on a private TV channel, which is owned by Urbano Cairo, the same channel that has invited Russian military propagandists without informing the public that they are simply putting out the Kremlin’s narratives. Sadly, there has never been adequate pushback in any of these shows to the lies Orsini and the Russians have disseminated.
In 2022, public and private media were hauled into the public authority and made aware of the dangers of inviting Russian propagandists, who expose the public to lies. This information was included in the COPASIR Report (Parliamentary Intelligence Committee) in 2022. If the Minister of Defence has come out publicly on social media to warn Orsini, it indicates that he is most likely under investigation by counter-intelligence: it’s a warning to him. This is my view, which for the time being, is uncorroborated by evidence.
Orsini has been particularly hyperactive for the past month, attacking anyone that does not subscribe to the Russian view of the war or the world. I would say he is probably part of the campaign to spread disinformation across the EU for the run-up to the election in June.
That this campaign in underway is apparent to analysts, like Eto Buziashvili. In our up-coming interview with Eto on Kremlin File, she mentions The Washington Post’s investigations about Russian operations to destabilise France and Germany. At the head of these particular operations is the ‘Viceroy of Donbas’, Sergey Kiriyenko, the deputy chief of staff in the Kremlin, and more importantly, the head of Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear energy giant.
Italy’s counter-espionage services, AISI, presented their annual report on March 4. Its director, Mario Parente, said that "there is constant activity" in terms of disinformation, including Russian.”
The AISI report explains that over the course of last year, "the information apparatus linked to the Kremlin continued to operate within the information domain to undermine European cohesion and citizens' trust" in national institutions, in the European Union and NATO. After the European Union imposed a block on the activities of Russian media, such as RT and Sputnik, towards Member States, and adopted more stringent policies against disinformation and propaganda by Russia, “the latter was able to count on the support of media networks of third countries to promote their narratives while expanding their coordination capacity at an international level”.
In Italy, propagandists like Orsini are still given air time, and invited into our homes with their daggers of disinformation. Since we live in a country where free speech is a right, Orsini and his lot cannot be muzzled, but warnings from our public officials on the threat to our security is certainly a welcomed gesture.
That jacket has a very Kim Jong Un vibe to it. The choice of location and even contemplating such a campaign - beyond tasteless.
That Oliver Stone article - would never see the light of day in mainstream media. Thanks for linking it!