Mar : E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
“20 Days in Mariupol” won an Oscar in the category of Best Documentary on Sunday. A film that chronicles the first 20 days of events as filmed by Associated Press journalist, Mstyslav Chernov. Video—Hollywood Reporter. Please listen to his acceptance speech:
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Russian shelling in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills 16-year-old boy. Russian forces shelled a settlement near Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast early on March 9, killing a 16-year-old boy and injuring another person, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Russian shelling of towns in eastern Ukraine killed three people on Sunday while a Moscow strike on a residential building in the town of Myrnograd wounded a dozen, Kyiv said.
Zarina Zabrisky in Kherson: Halyna and Fedir, grandparents of a 7 y.o. boy injured by a Russian aerial guided bomb, tell the story. Last night: Bath time. A cartoon before bedtime. A bomb. "We were lucky." "It all flew right past him." "He's our only grandchild." Video by Olexandr Tolokonnikov
Russia attacks 11 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces fired at Sumy Oblast 45 times on March 9, striking 11 communities, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.
Oleksandr Kubrakov, Vice Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine – the Minister for Communities and Territories Development and Infrastructure of Ukraine.
There is unpleasant news from the blocked Polish border. Protesters and police are stopping buses going to and from Poland. Passengers are being held without any explanation. We emphasize that these actions are unacceptable in relation to Ukrainian citizens.
During the war in Ukraine, the passengers of such buses are women with young children, socially vulnerable categories, military personnel returning or going to training, and people in transit. An attempt to make them hostages to a protest seems inappropriate for the civilized world.
Combat Situation Update
Czech Republic President Petr Pavel announced the delivery of 800,000 rounds of 155/122-mm artillery ammunition to Ukraine, worth €1.5 billion.
“If there are no fundamental problems, the ammunition could reach Ukraine within a few weeks,” he said.
Serhiy Tsehotskyi, officer of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade, noted that the front line near Avdiivka has stabilized, as the Ukrainian army received ammunition. "Both the interrogation of prisoners who come to us and the interception of the occupiers' conversations indicate an extremely low moral and psychological state of the enemy," he added.
In the Orikhiv direction, the Russian fascist invaders attacked Ukrainian defenders 3 times in the areas south of Novodarivka and northwest of Verbove, Zaporizhzhya region.
The Russian do not give up their intention to knock out Ukrainian units from bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region. During the day, one attempt to storm the positions of Ukrainian defenders was made.
After the destruction of the ship "Sergey Kotov", the Russians have not been in the Black Sea for 6 days, Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.
“This time they reacted according to their algorithm - they tried to pretend in the media space that there were no victims, as always. But as a matter of fact, we see that the Russians are still analyzing the consequences of their loss and drawing conclusions,” he noted.
Media: Commander of Russian Navy replaced. Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, commander of the Russian Navy, has been replaced with Admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev, Fontanka, a Russian news outlet, and Russian newspaper Izvestiya reported on March 10, citing unnamed sources. The news comes amid reports that around 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had been destroyed as of December 2023.
CNN: US prepared 'rigorously' for potential Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine in 2022. Washington was "preparing rigorously" for a possible Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine in late 2022, which would have been the first nuclear attack in a war since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki 1945 bombings, CNN reported on March 9, citing two unnamed U.S. officials.
Me: I would expect the US military to prepare for all contingencies, otherwise what kind of military is it? The possibility of a tactical nuclear detonation as a first warning, over the Black Sea has been hypothesised for years. Would Russia do this? Yes. I believe that it’s not in the interests of Russia to detonate a tactical nuke because doing so Russia would isolate itself from its allies. What guarantee would China, Iran or North Korea have that they wouldn’t be next? So while the West is obsessed with nukes, the Russians are also playing the ‘NATO will attack us’ card.
A new training center in Romania, created to teach Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 warplanes, is awaiting the arrival of Ukrainian pilots. The Fetesti air base, where the center is located, is also being used by NATO allies for training on fighter jets. Although 12 Ukrainian pilots are expected to be ready for combat by the summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain, and the United States, delays in the delivery of F-16s pose challenges. As few as six F-16s may be delivered out of about 45 promised by European allies by the time the trained pilots return to Ukraine.
Julia Davis: Olga Skabeeva said she is terrified that NATO may attack and destroy Russia, in a likely propaganda ploy to prompt the population to support the idea of a preemptive strike. Her guests didn't understand the assignment and tried to calm everyone down.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on reports that Nikolai Yevmenov, the head of the Russian navy, had been replaced, saying he did not comment on decrees which were classified. The Izvestia newspaper said that Alexander Moiseyev, who previously served as commander of Russia’s northern fleet, had reportedly been appointed as acting navy chief.
Media: Next Ramstein summit to be held on March 19 in Germany. The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will be held on March 19 at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the U.S. Air Force in Europe's press service told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
Belarus has started a comprehensive inspection of combat readiness of the armed forces, the defence ministry said. The exercise will include the movement of military equipment, as well as training of personnel with live firing, according to the defence ministry. (Me: they have been for over 2 years.)
Behind the Lines
Russian media: St Petersburg airport suspends operations after drone attack. Leningrad Oblast Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko reported a drone was downed near the village of Fornovoso south of Pulkovo Airport without casualties on the ground.
A warehouse of building materials is on fire in the village of Rodniky, Moscow region. The area of the fire is estimated at 1000m² and expanding. Preliminary info states the cause is an unextinguished cigarette. I am not kidding.
Orban meets Trump in US, urges him to 'come back and bring us peace'. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Donald Trump, who is set to become the Republican nominee for the general U.S. presidential election, during his trip to the U.S. on March 8, and supported Trump’s presidential bid.
Polish protestors to temporarily unblock traffic at one border crossing. Demchenko said on the national telethon that the border blockade could end on March 13, but remained cautious about whether or not the protestors will resume traffic flow after the date.
The real reason South Africa's corrupt ANC-led government is filing claims against Israel at the ICJ? The Daily Maverick, a South African newspaper that previously won an international award for exposing ANC corruption, has reported claims that Iran “essentially paid the ANC to litigate against Israel in the ICJ.” A second major South African newspaper, The Citizen, asked: “Is Iran funding the ANC? ANC’s sudden wealth fuels suspicion…and the party refuses to divulge its funding sources.” The ANC has denied the charge.
Reaction to Pope Francis’s statements that Ukraine should surrender:
«In Ukraine no one has the luxury to surrender. And all those who look with skepticism at our ability to stand, we say: come to Ukraine and you will see." says the Head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Sviatoslav Shevchuk.
President Zelensky’s evening speech in response to Pope Francis:
Russian murderers and torture chambers are unable to march further into Europe because they are being held back by Ukrainians holding arms under the blue and yellow flag.
There used to be many white walls of houses and churches in Ukraine, but they have now been burned and damaged by Russian shells. This speaks volumes about who needs to stop for the war to end.
Everyone who defends life and people is carrying out the most honourable mission possible in the face of such an inhumane invasion. And we must fully protect life in our home. I am grateful to everyone who supports our defense and defenders.
When Russian evil launched this war on February 24th, 2022, all Ukrainians rose up to defend their country. Christians, Muslims, Jews — everyone. And I am grateful to each chaplain who is with the army, in our defense forces, on the frontlines, protecting life and humanity. Those who support others through prayer, conversation, and actions.
This is what the Church is: one with the people. Not two and a half thousand kilometers away—somewhere, looking for a virtual meditation between those who want to live and those who want to destroy you.
I am grateful to everyone in and with Ukraine who is making every effort to protect life. I thank everyone who helps, who is truly close in deeds and prayers.
The fallout from Pope Francis saying Ukraine should have “the courage to raise the white flag” and negotiate an end to the war with Russia continued on Monday.
In an apparent reference to the remarks, Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said in a joint press conference with Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, that “surrender is not peace” for Ukraine, adding that only the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had the power to end the war. The Kremlin’s invasion not only prompted formerly non-aligned nations Sweden and Finland to come under Nato’s defence umbrella, but now “Ukraine is closer to Nato membership than ever before,” Stoltenberg said. “When President Putin launched his full-scale invasion two years ago, he wanted less Nato and more control over his neighbours. He wanted to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state, but he failed,” Stoltenberg said, adding that “Nato is bigger and stronger”, after Sweden became the alliance’s 32nd member last week. In an interview with Reuters, Stoltenberg distanced himself from French president Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that western allies should not rule out deploying troops to Ukraine. “Nato has no plans to send troops to Ukraine and Nato’s not party to the conflict, nor are Nato allies,” Stoltenberg said.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian student jailed for renaming Wi-Fi network to pro-Ukraine salute. A Russian student at Moscow State University received a 10-day jail sentence for renaming a Wi-Fi network name to "Slava Ukraini" - a Ukrainian national salute that means “Glory to Ukraine," Moscow court documents revealed on March 9.
Julia Davis: Russian state TV host Vladimir Solovyov berated Pope Francis for "sticking his nose where it does not belong" and suggesting negotiations. Solovyov said that Russia has no interest in negotiations and does not recognize the Pope as a spiritual leader.
In St. Petersburg, explosions were heard near the airport. A hangar is reportedly on fire, and drones were reportedly spotted 30km from St. Petersburg. At Pulkovo airport, all incoming and outgoing flights are temporarily cancelled.
The EU is fighting anti-Ukraine propaganda ahead of the European parliamentary elections in June. Experts warn that pro-Russian players are flooding social media with false claims about the war in Ukraine to boost support for far-right and nationalist parties, AFP reports. According to the report:
Pro-Russian accounts have been pumping out posts on Facebook, X and TikTok that depict Ukrainian refugees as violent criminals or claim that Kyiv’s government officials siphon off financial aid sent by the West to buy luxury yachts and villas for themselves.Another theme with particular potency in countries closest to the conflict is that refugees receive higher state benefits than locals.
The aim of such propaganda is to weaken the EU’s resolve and benefit anti-immigration parties like Germany’s AfD, France’s National Rally or the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, said Jakub Kalensky, an analyst at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE) in Helsinki, Finland.
Such disinformation will “definitely play a role” in the June 6-9 vote, when more than 400 million Europeans choose a new five-year parliament, he said.
“When you exaggerate the risk of Ukrainian immigrants, you boost anti-immigration parties,” Kalensky said.
Viktor Orban’s comments about his meeting with Trump and what Trump will do once he is elected. Note the he says ‘Trump’s’ party is halting aid to Ukraine now.
“He will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end,” the Hungarian premier told state television on Sunday evening. “As it is obvious that Ukraine on its own cannot stand on its feet.” “If the Americans do not give money and weapons, and also the Europeans, then this war will be over. And if the Americans do not give money the Europeans are unable to finance this war on their own, and then the war will end.”
Allied Support
British Foreign Minister, David Cameron, opposes deploying Western troops in Ukraine, including for training. According to U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron, deploying foreign soldiers in Ukraine would create additional "targets" for Russia.
Japan and the US are discussing collaborating on military gear in a bid to provide more munitions to Ukraine and increasing ways for the Asian country to repair American warships and jet fighters.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, reportedly said she was open to a deal in which London supplies Ukraine with additional Storm Shadow missiles in exchange for Germany backfilling British long-range missile stocks.
Josep Borrell, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy and vice-president of the European Commission, called for Europe to boost its defence industry to replenish depleting weapon stocks sent to Ukraine. It came as CNN reported that Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions a month, or about 3 million a year, in contrast to the US and Europe, which collectively have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, according to a senior European intelligence official.
French President Emmanuel Macron has postponed his planned visit to Ukraine amid tensions with allies over his recent strong statements on Russia. The visit, originally scheduled for February and then postponed to mid-March, will now take place "in the next few weeks," according to a statement from the Elysée Palace. The delay is not attributed to security concerns, despite a recent incident involving a Russian missile near Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during his visit to Ukraine. Macron aims to take time for discussions with allies to achieve tangible results before visiting Ukraine, engaging in initiatives such as supporting a Czech ammunition purchase for Ukraine and building a long-range missile coalition.
Turkish and US officials have held comprehensive talks about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and various bilateral issues during meetings in Washington, Turkey’s foreign minister said late on Friday. Hakan Fidan said he discussed ways to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with officials including US counterpart Antony Blinken, reiterating that Ankara believed it is time to discuss paths toward an end to the war but that Turkey did not see this willingness from Kyiv and Moscow. “We need a basis for talking, for this war to stop, and a dialogue to prevent worse crises, and we call for this,” Fidan said.
UK vehicles that fall foul of London’s ultra low emission zone (Ulez) rules can be donated to Ukraine rather than being scrapped from next week, PA reports. Applicants will be able to donate vehicles in return for the same grant payment available to drivers who scrap or retrofit their vehicles - up to £2,000 - Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has announced.
NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg welcomes Sweden!
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said that Sweden’s accession to the alliance shows Vladimir Putin “failed” in his Ukrainian war strategy of weakening it.
The Kremlin’s invasion not only prompted formerly non-aligned nations Sweden and Finland to come under Nato’s defence umbrella, but now “Ukraine is closer to Nato membership than ever before,” Stoltenberg said.
His comments, made next to Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, came just before Sweden’s flag was to be run up a flagpole outside Nato’s Brussels headquarters in a ceremony sealing Sweden becoming the alliance’s 32nd member country.
“When President Putin launched his full-scale invasion two years ago, he wanted less Nato and more control over his neighbours. He wanted to destroy Ukraine as a sovereign state, but he failed,” Stoltenberg was quoted by AFP as saying.
“Nato is bigger and stronger,” he added.
Me: I never thought I would leave
Germans "can't be trusted" with intelligence secrets-Express
Want to know what is putting the brakes on Scholz when it comes to a more decisive stand against Russia?
While both the US and UK- who enjoy a special level of intelligence sharing within Five Eyes - routinely share select intelligence with EU member states, distrust of “leaky Germany” has kept the information pipeline tightly restricted.
Nathalie Vogel, of the Institute of World Politics think tank, said: “Russians are today harvesting the results of many decades worth of influence operations.
“They are successfully influencing the political discourse after planting proxy MPs at the Bundestag, particularly in the Afd, the far right. And on the left side we have communists tied to Russia’s GRU intelligence agency.“
She added: “Germany’ has been living in the fairytale that it was Neue Ostpolitik - the decision by West Germany to engage with East Germany - that tore down the Berlin Wall, when the truth was it was Ronald Reagan’s policies. There are still those who occupy senior office in decision-making circles who believe in negotiation at any price. “
Olaf Scholz's refusal to provode Ukraine with long range Taurus cruise missiles for fear it will escalate the situation with Russia is an example of this, said Vogel.
His extensive aid package to Ukraine, she said, was forced on him by coalition partners, citing that Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, belongs to the the more hawkish Greens Party, as opposed to the Social Democratic Party, to which Schroeder also belonged.
“Access to Five Eyes is a privilege who should not be afforded to Germany," added Vogel. "But it doesn’t mean we should allow Russia to divide the alliance."
CNN: ‘Trump Employee 5,’ who unknowingly helped move classified documents, speaks out
A longtime Mar-a-Lago employee who is a central witness in the investigation into former President Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents is now speaking publicly because he believes that voters should hear the truth about his former boss and the case before the November election.
Exit polls suggest a coalition of Portuguese centre-right parties is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent socialists but fall well short of a majority in Sunday’s closely fought snap general election, with the far-right Chega party looking set to double its share of the vote and finish third.
Programming notes…
Part One of our two-part interview with Ilya Zaslavskiy, director of The Underminers, who has been tracking Kremlin influence across the globe for years. For the full interview, hop over to Megaphone or your preferred podcast platform.
Victor Orban - GO AWAY!!!! That man needs to take a seat and be quiet. I realize this is not a very formal way of expressing an opinion but it's just so frustrating!! Thanks as always for your coverage. Love the Russian disinformation clips - if it wasn't so serious I would be laughing much harder.