Mar : E-Stories

Day749 Kryvyi Rih RVCSiberianBat CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies Portugal US Trump A&P ISW UADef NoelReport CDS UKDef Pichler Buziashvili KyivIndie Davis Zaslavskiy WH Mamedov CEP Jourova Times

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Freedom of Russia Legion, The Russian Volunteer Corps and the Siberia Batallion have entered the Kursk and Bilhorod regions in Russia. Heavy fighting is reported in the border area. (see section: Behind Lines) Air alarms in Belgorod area.

Breaking story: the Liberty of Russia Legion:

Good morning from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Like all our fellow citizens, in the Legion we dream of a Russia freed from Putin's dictatorship. But we don't just dream: we work hard to realise those dreams.We will take back our land centimetre by centimetre from the regime. Russians will sleep well, will not be afraid of the doorbell, will not be afraid to say what they think. Russians will vote for whom they want, not for whom they have to. Russians will live freely. Legion is coming.

Stories we’re following…

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 13 over past day. Russia launched 25 Shahed drones at Ukraine overnight, 15 of which were shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, the General Staff reported in a post on Facebook.

In Kryvyi Rih, Russians hit a residential high-rise building and another five-story building. There are many wounded, two persons have died. More than 48 victims have already been admitted to Kryvyi Rih hospitals.

Kherson Governor: 5 children returned from Russian captivity. The NGO Save Ukraine has returned five children and an 18-year-old orphan from Russian-occupied territories, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on March 11.

Dozens of drones attacked Russia at night. HT/Alex Kokcharov

• In the Nizhny Novgorod region, a drone attacked the Lukoil oil depot. Lukoil describes it as an 'operational upset' at the 17-million tonne/year Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. This facility handles 5% of Russia's oil volume and sits 800 km away from Ukraine

• During the night, explosions were reported in the Bilhorod, Voronezh, Kursk and Tula regions. The mayor of Moscow said that a drone attack on Moscow was repelled.

• An oil depot that was hit in the Oryol region, and continues to burn.

• A large scale fire reportedly occured in the Obukhovo district as well as near the Yuzhnaya power station in St. Petersburg.

Schools in the Russian city of Kursk are switching to online classes, local authorities said, after an attempted Ukrainian incursion into the region.

---

Combat Situation Update

Russian troops’ advance in Ukraine “has been stopped”, according to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, with the situation along the front at its best in three months. Zelenskiy, in an interview with France’s BFM television, said Ukraine had improved its strategic position despite shortages of weaponry, but suggested the situation could change without new supplies.

ISW: Russia is trying to create a “strategic reserve” for offensive operations in spring-summer 2024 but is not planning to equip new units/formations with the doctrinally required quantities of weapons & equipment due to current Russian DIB constraints.

• ISW continues to assess that RU would have the opportunity to expand its DIB and amass resources if it maintains the theater-wide initiative throughout 2024, thus allowing RU to set conditions for a future offensive operation using a larger reserve of manpower and equipment.

• The major variable likely to determine the rate at which such partially-replenished RU forces can advance this summer is the availability of materiel to UA, which in turn depends heavily on the continued provision of US military assistance.

Since the beginning of the war, more than 10 serious assassination attempts have been made against the head of the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyryl Budanov, GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov said.

Zelensky: Ukraine building 2,000 kilometers of fortifications. The construction of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) of fortifications across three lines of defense is "a massive task, but the pace is good," Zelensky said.

“Twelve [Ukrainian] pilots so far — fewer than a full squadron — are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain, and the United States,” reports The New York Times. However, Ukraine may start with just six F-16s of about 45 of the fighter jets promised by European allies. Yevgeniya Gaber, a former Ukrainian diplomat and foreign policy adviser, told the newspaper that she thinks the warplanes will only be a “game changer” together with “other ammo and long-range missiles.”

---

Behind the Lines

“LSR, RDK and the Siberian Battalion in Russia operate as independent units: there is probably now a joint operation of these units on the territory of the so-called Russian Federation,” representative of the GUR Andriy Yusov said.

The governor of the Kursk region, Roman Starovoyt, confirmed the attacks of Russian insurgents in the area of Tetkino. He says that servicemen of the FSB Border Guard Department and the Ministry of Defense repelled the attack. He also claims 11 UAVs were shot down.

An oil refinery attacked during the night in Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia.

Address of the soldiers of the Siberian Battalion to the citizens of Russia.

"It will not be possible to overthrow the criminal dictatorial regime in Russia peacefully. It can only be removed with weapons in hand. Tonight we began to fulfill our promise. There are fierce battles on the territory of Russia."

Heavy fighting in the Kursk region:

The attacks occurred from these areas as reported by Noel Report. Russian media and the Russian Ministry of Digital Development make notice that a number of electronical services of the Bilhorod region such as the electronical document management are unreachable due to cyberattacks.

Russia’s FSB security service denied on Tuesday any groups had managed to break across into Russian territory. But the TASS news agency cited the FSB as saying Russian forces were fighting off incursions.

Alexey Baranovsky, representative of the Freedom of Russia Legion, said that the Kursk region can expect a "difficult night". He also added that Tetkino remains under control by their forces. According to him, the police were the first to flee the village, followed by the military. Currently, the intensity of fighting has subsided.

The main crude distillation unit (AVT-6) at Russia’s NORSI refinery is damaged which means that at least half of the refinery’s production is halted, industry sources have told Reuters.

Interfax—Another bird down: A Russian Air Force IL-76 transport plane (the same platform being used for A-50 AWACS) lost an engine while flying, and crashed. An IL-76 transport aircraft went down in Ivanovo not far from Severny airfield.

---

Meanwhile in Russia

Russia, China and Iran have begun joint navy drills in the Gulf of Oman, Russia’s defence ministry said, adding that the exercise focused on protection of maritime economic activity.

Chechen paramilitary groups are “actively buying up captured Ukrainians from other Russian military factions” and then exchanging them for their own POWs, reports The Times. Because Chechen forces’ role in the war has receded to “policing and logistics operations at a remove from the front line,” they are now buying Ukrainian prisoners to trade for the “Chechens languishing in Ukrainian POW camps.”

Russian lawmakers propose draft bill declaring 'illegal' return of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Lawmakers of the ruling United Russia political party submitted a draft law to the Russian State Duma on March 11 declaring Russia's 1954 return of Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic "illegal."

Putin has signed an executive order expanding eligibility for one-time payments in the event of death or injury in Ukraine to civilian personnel in Russia’s Defense Ministry and other federal agencies, including the Federal Penitentiary Service and Federal Bailiff Service. The program pays 5 million rubles ($55,125) in the event of death and 3 million rubles ($33,075) in case of serious injury. (Me: election time!)

The Russian authorities have been using prisoners to beef up their military forces in Ukraine for well over a year and a half now. Lawmakers are now working on an initiative that would allow criminal suspects, defendants, and convicts to have their cases or sentences suspended in exchange for joining the army, potentially avoiding any prison time at all. Here’s what we know.

Journalists from Meduza, iStories, and numerous other international outlets studied hacked documents and found evidence of previously unconfirmed Russian government connections and activity. Among other things, the materials revealed that a secretive government tech agency has been tasked with creating a Russia-wide surveillance system using a network of cameras equipped with artificial intelligence. The head of Russia’s Digital Development Ministry mentioned a “platform for processing and storing data from surveillance cameras” back in November.

Russia’s federal government has endorsed legislation that would impose felony liability for acts of sabotage on perpetrators as young as 14. Currently, the minimum age for felony prosecution is 16. Last October, journalists at Mediazona reported that 39 of the 124 people arrested in Russia for sabotaging railways since February 2022 have been minors.

To bring an additional 2.5 trillion rubles ($27.5 billion) to the federal budget, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s government cabinet is reportedly discussing hikes to Russia’s personal and corporate income taxes. According to iStories, the current draft plan would raise personal income taxes on Russians earning more than 1 million rubles ($11,000) annually from 13 to 15 percent and Russians earning more than 5 million rubles ($55,000) annually from 15 to 20 percent. The corporate profits tax would jump from its current 20 percent to 25 percent.

Media: International electronics companies that suspended operations in Russia resume advertising. Leading international electronics companies, including Samsung and Xiaomi, have resumed advertising in Russia after suspending product promotion after the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian state media outlet Kommersant reported, citing TelecomDaily data.

Russian media: South Korean arrested in Russia on suspicion of spying for first time. A South Korean citizen has been arrested in Russia for the first time on alleged espionage charges, Russian state-owned news agency TASS said on March 11.

Latvian police and border patrol will inspect the visas and residence permits of Russian nationals who come to the Russian embassy this weekend to vote in Russia’s presidential election. “Access to the embassy will be controlled accordingly,” the head of Latvia’s State Police said on Monday, explaining that this “screening” process could lead to the deportation of anyone found to be in Latvia illegally.

---

Allied Support

Czech PM Petr Fiala announced that in addition to the bindingly confirmed purchase of 300,000 pieces of artillery ammunition for Ukraine from third countries, the Czech initiative has been non-bindingly promised another 200,000 pieces.

Denmark has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, providing artillery pieces and ammunition worth $336 million. The donation is funded through the Ukraine Fund and includes CAESAR artillery pieces, self-propelled 120mm mortars and ammunition.

Democrats in the US House of Representatives have begun collecting signatures to bring up a $95 billion aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, bypassing Speaker Mike Johnson. A discharge petition was filed.

President Biden met Poland’s president and prime minister today to show solidarity for Ukraine in its battle against Russian invaders and discuss ways to increase funding for Nato against the ongoing threat from Moscow.

International Criminal Court (ICC) Judge Tomoko Akane, who was placed on a Russian wanted list after issuing an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2023, was elected president of the ICC on March 11.

European Union leaders will back a change to the lending policy of the European Investment Bank, so that the huge European government-owned lender can finance defence projects, draft conclusions of the leaders’ summit next week say.

The executive European Commission called on the EIB last week to change its lending policy, which now explicitly excludes lending for purely military projects, to help Europe ramp up its defence production following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But some EU governments, especially neutral countries, have been reluctant, concerned that financing defence could hurt the EIB’s top credit rating and not address the problem, which they say is not a lack of funding, but of long-term contracts.

Vera Jourova: Political campaign should be a fair competition, not a fight of dirty methods. We must make sure everyone’s choice is not manipulated by disinformation, deepfakes and foreign interference.

European Union leaders are ready to respond with new and significant measures against Iran amid reports that Tehran may transfer ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, draft conclusions of a summit to be held next week said.

The European Council calls on third parties to immediately cease providing material support to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Reports that Iran may transfer ballistic missiles and related technology to Russia for use against Ukraine are very concerning.

The European Union is prepared to respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners, including with new and significant measures against Iran.

Denmark will provide a new military aid package including Caesar artillery systems and ammunition to Ukraine worth around 2.3 billion Danish crowns ($336.6 million), the Danish Defence Ministry has said in a statement.

Minister: Ukraine starts talks with US, EU regulators to restore air service. Kyiv is waiting for the first round of official feedback from regulators and is currently in talks with three Ukrainian companies that have confirmed they "want to fly," Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov told RBC-Ukraine in an interview.

l Macron’s Ukraine strategy will be put to a symbolic vote in parliament’s lower house on Tuesday as political tensions rage in the run-up to June’s European Parliament elections.

NATO: Swedish forces celebrate NATO membership Just minutes after Sweden’s membership became official, Swedish soldiers lit bonfires and held a spontaneous ceremony whilst exercising in Lapland, Finland.

The European Parliament is preparing to sue the European Commission over its controversial decision to unfreeze billions in funds for Hungary late last year, people involved in the decision told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook. The Parliament’s legal affairs committee on Monday voted nearly unanimously — with 16 members in favor, one opposed and no abstentions — to take the Commission to court for breaching its obligation to protect taxpayer money from being misused. Last December, the Commission unblocked €10.2 billion in frozen EU cohesion funds earmarked for Budapest, which had been held back amid human rights and rule-of-law concerns.

US, Japan hope to accelerate joint defense production at April summit. The leaders of Japan and the United States will meet in Washington, D.C. on April 10 to "strengthen the joint production system" for defense equipment in order to ship more arms to Ukraine, according to unnamed officials cited by the Japanese news outlet Yomiuri.

---

Portugal: Sunday’s national elections were won by the center-right Democratic Alliance coalition, but the group and its allied parties failed to secure a governing majority of seats in the parliament. So too did outgoing Prime Minister António Costa‘s Socialist Party, which conceded the election admitting that it would be unable to secure the seats needed to form a governing alliance with the far left.

The inconclusive results create an atmosphere in which the far-right Chega party is poised to wield a remarkable amount of power. The anti-establishment group, which has appropriated the Estado Novo’s “God, country, family and work” slogan, has consolidated itself as Portugal’s third-largest political force and now controls at least 48 of the 230 seats in the parliament.

Persuable Voters: I found this short interview informative…

NYT: House Republican leaders are trying to pass legislation that would force the Chinese owners of TikTok to sell the platform or face a U.S. ban on the app, even after former President Donald Trump spoke out against such a move.

The legislation is progressing quickly on Capitol Hill during an election year in which both Democrats and Republicans are eager to demonstrate toughness on China.

The bill would remove TikTok from app stores in the U.S. by Sept. 30 unless its Beijing-based parent company, ByteDance, sold its stake. Trump, as president, issued an executive order that would have done the same thing, but it was blocked by repeated rulings from federal courts; now he has changed course and is opposing the bill.

Haiti’s prime minister is resigning after a wave of killings and kidnappings. The country is facing its worst violence in decades. Armed gangs have taken over most of the capital, demanding the unelected prime minister’s resignation. Ariel Henry agreed to resign following international pressure, including from the U.S. He has led Haiti since the unsolved assassination of the president in 2021.

Catherine, the Princess of Wales, apologized yesterday for doctoring a photo of her with her three children that was recalled by several news agencies on Sunday after they determined that the image had been manipulated.

Me: The story in itself is fluff even if it is dominating the airwaves in the U.K. What is relevant is that the Associated Press and another outlet ‘killed’ the photo because they had found it to be manipulated. It demonstrates their integrity as a news outlet. In conversation with another professional in the field, this person told me of his colleague who had been fired from National Geographic. He had removed a knapsack from a picture that he submitted to NatGeo. They not only fired him, but they removed all his past work from their archives.

---

Programming notes…

Maj Gen Chip Chapman on today’s events across the border in Russia.