Mar 26: E-Stories

RuAttacks Kyiv Sumy Kharkiv CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies China A&P Olha KyivIndie ISW UKDef NoelReport CDS Aquillino InformNapalm Kapparov Landsbergis Biden Moutet Felshintsky Bident

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Pani Olha is 75. After being entire life a russian speaker, she just started attending Ukrainian language classes in one of the Kyiv libraries. This is her powerful statement against russian genocidal war & terror Video: ivanchenkova_ele, Insta via Sho_Tam_

Stories we’re following…

Russia attacks 8 communities in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 115 times in 31 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on March 23.

Mar 24: Critical infrastructure in several regions of Ukraine targeted by Russia overnight. Port infrastructure in the Odesa region reportedly damaged and critical infrastructure in Lviv elsewhere. In total 29 cruise missile & 28 drones most of which intercepted.

11 injured in Mykolaiv, partial blackouts in Odesa after overnight Russian drone attack. A Russian overnight drone attack on southern Ukraine injured 11 people and left parts of Odesa without electricity, Ukrainian authorities said on March 25.

Russian attacks force Kharkiv to end city heating season early. Kharkiv will switch off the city's central heating early to reduce the load on the power system, which has been severely damaged in recent Russian attacks, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov announced on March 25.

Ukrhydroenergo: Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant lost a third of generation capacity after Russian strike. Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant lost about a third of its generation capacity after a Russian missile strike, the head of Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota told the Associated Press.

Ukraine’s DTEK loses 50% of generating capacity, recovery will take 'months.' Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, lost 50% of its generating capacity due to Russia’s March 22 mass attack on the country’s energy system, the CEO of one of its subsidiaries said on March 24.

This is a fragment of the Russian Zircon anti-ship missile which was launched at Kyiv on March 25 and shot down by Ukrainian air defence.

Zelensky, Kuleba urge allies to send more air defenses after Russian strike on Kyiv. “This (air defense systems) provide safety for our cities and save lives. All of us who respect and protect life must put an end to this terror,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

A Russian cruise missile violated Poland’s airspace during the missile attack on Ukraine early Sunday morning. The object entered Polish space near the town of Oserdów and stayed there for 39 seconds. During the entire flight, he was observed by military radar systems. In this post, the Russian channel is boasting that they have landed a missile in NATO territory.

"If there was any indication that the Russian missile that violated Polish airspace was heading towards a target in Poland, it would have been shot down. It was monitored by our radars at all times," Minister of Defense Wladysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

Russian ambassador rejects Poland's summons over missile in Polish airspace. Russia's ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreyev, has rejected Poland's summons to the Foreign Ministry in connection with the Russian missile that entered Polish airspace on March 24, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported on March 25.

Russian missiles just don’t wander into EU airspace: there are too many precedents to say that they are making mistakes. It seems to be a deliberate tactic to test NATO reactions. The Soviets used these tactics all through the Cold War: They tested nuclear weapons during arms negotiation conferences with the Americans or conducted military exercises close to NATO borders. They also invaded NATO airspace constantly and still do.

---

Combat Situation Update

Mar 24—Crimea strike up-date: HUR claims to have struck the Black Sea Fleet’s OLENEGORSK GORNYAK and IVAN KHURS landing ships in Crimea using cruise missiles fired from Su-24 tactical bombers.

Ukrainian StratCom reports that Russian Project 775(M) Ropucha-class landing ships Yamal and Azov, communication centers and other infrastructure facilities were hit during the attack on occupied Crimea last night

In Hvardiis’ke in occupied Crimea, an oil depot is reportedly on fire, locals report. Overnight, at least 4 explosions were reported in the area. Residents in the area are being evacuated.

SBU head: Russia no longer using Crimean bridge for weapons supplies after repeated strikes. Russia no longer uses the Crimean bridge to supply weapons to the front after Ukrainian strikes damaged the crossing, Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on air on March 25.

Satellite images of the communications hub of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol before and after the missile attack yesterday. Images obtained by Svoboda.

Reuters: Russia's Kuibyshev oil refinery stops one of primary units after drone attack. The Kuibyshev oil refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast halted one of two primary refining units, taking half of its capacity offline, after a drone attack overnight on March 23, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed industry sources.

“The security environment is the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” Adm. Aquilino warned last week. “We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2.” A few more clips, quotes, & mic-dropping moments from his final public appearance as Commander, U.S. INDOPACOM

---

Behind the Lines

Russia is reportedly postponing the delivery of two S-400 air defense systems to India, citing the need to utilize them for protecting its own cities and strategic assets from potential strikes by Ukrainian drones. This delay means that out of the five S-400 systems India was expecting by the end of the year, only two will be delivered by August 2026.

Border guards of Moldova plan to cooperate with the Ukrainian authorities and help catch evaders trying to escape from Ukraine through the Transnistrian region. Joint border patrols will be resumed in the Transnistria region on the Ukrainian side.

Western components in Russian missiles has been an issue that Ukraine and the US have tried to curb for over a year. Authorities in Kyiv provide information packs to US authorities to aid in locating possible issues of non-compliance to manufacturers. Some manufacturers have stated publicly that they do comply to export regulations, but find it increasingly difficult to trace where their products finally land. The creation of shell or front companies serve to obfuscate traceability, and add layers to investigations, making them time consuming. The intricacy of compliance is the topic of an up-coming chat Olga and I had with Nikky Kenyon, who has experience in these matters.

In Greece on Mar 23, Communists stopped a train carrying American tanks in the port of Alexandroupoli and forced it to turn back. The train was headed to Bulgaria, Pentapostagma writes, without specifying the reason. People shouted slogans: “Alexandroupoli is a port of the people, not a stronghold of the imperialists” And on the carriages they wrote with red paint “Murderers, go home.”.

---

Meanwhile in Russia

Russia claims it detained suspected perpetrators of Moscow shooting that killed over 100 people. Russia's security services detained 11 people allegedly involved in the March 22 mass shooting at a concert venue near Moscow, including four perpetrators, the Kremlin's press service reported on March 23.

Noel Report: Putin has made new statements regarding the attack at the Crocus City Hall, attributing it to radical Islamists.

He criticized the United States for suggesting ISIS involvement and downplaying any connection to Ukraine. Putin suggested the attack may be part of ongoing anti-Russia efforts since 2014 and raised questions about why the terrorists attempted to flee to Ukraine afterward.

Additionally, he viewed the attack as fitting into a pattern of intimidation. Sergey Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, stated that the investigation has established a complete chronology of events and that the accused provided detailed testimony about those involved in planning and assisting in the attack.

Macron: IS group behind Moscow attack 'made several attempts' to strike France. The Islamic State (IS) group, which claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall in a Moscow suburb last week, had recently made "several attempts" at attacks on French soil, French President Emmanuel Macron said on March 25.

The Russian propagandists managed to fit in all the conspiracy theories in one post. That’s talent.

A shopping center in St. Petersburg, Russia, was evacuated on Mar 25 due to an alleged explosive threat. Russian media reports that an unknown person called the police and reported an explosive device. The man was allegedly detained.

US Dept of Justice: Seven Hackers Associated with Chinese Government Charged with Computer Intrusions Targeting Perceived Critics of China and U.S. Businesses and Politicians

Defendants Operated as Part of the APT31 Hacking Group in Support of China’s Ministry of State Security’s Transnational Repression, Economic Espionage and Foreign Intelligence Objectives

An indictment was unsealed today charging seven nationals of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with conspiracy to commit computer intrusions and conspiracy to commit wire fraud for their involvement in a PRC-based hacking group that spent approximately 14 years targeting U.S. and foreign critics, businesses, and political officials in furtherance of the PRC’s economic espionage and foreign intelligence objectives.

The defendants are Ni Gaobin (倪高彬), 38; Weng Ming (翁明), 37; Cheng Feng (程锋), 34; Peng Yaowen (彭耀文), 38; Sun Xiaohui (孙小辉), 38; Xiong Wang (熊旺), 35; and Zhao Guangzong (赵光宗), 38. All are believed to reside in the PRC.

“The Justice Department will not tolerate efforts by the Chinese government to intimidate Americans who serve the public, silence the dissidents who are protected by American laws, or steal from American businesses,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “This case serves as a reminder of the ends to which the Chinese government is willing to go to target and intimidate its critics, including launching malicious cyber operations aimed at threatening the national security of the United States and our allies.”

---

Allied Support

Borrell confirms EU delivery of 500,000 shells to Ukraine by end of March. The EU has delivered 500,000 of the promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine and aims to deliver the total amount by the end of the year, the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said in his blog on March 25.

Iceland joins Czech ammunition initiative, commits 2 million euros. The Icelandic government announced on March 25 that they will spend two million euros on the project. Iceland also said they will support the purchase of equipment for servicewomen in the Ukrainian army.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielus Landsbergis, sends “a very clear message that the next time a missile violates NATO airspace, it will be taken down.” These statements come as another Russian missile violated Polish airspace on Monday. See section ‘Stories we’re following’ above.

US House will presumably be able to proceed to vote on aid to Ukraine after Easter. This will likely be a modified package favored by House Speaker Johnson, intended to make part of the aid, a loan.

"Johnson said his commitment is to put it on the floor after Easter. And we are working on this bill," Senator McCaul said.

US Congress approves $228 million in military aid for Baltic countries. "Support from the U.S. has significantly helped Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania fast-track several military infrastructure and capability development projects," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said in a statement.

---

The Baltimore Bridge collapsed this morning. This is the moment it collapsed after a cargo ship struck it in the early hours of this morning.

---

How Macron and Scholz broke the Franco-German alliance at the heart of the EU—Anne-Elisabeth Moutet

Breakdown of continental partnership is a threat to Europe – and could be catastrophic for Ukraine

But many Macron critics, until now unsparing in their commentaries, salute both the change on Ukraine and the pictures themselves.

Nathalie Vogel, a German academic, Russia expert and research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, says: “Macron is sending a message Putin will understand. We may joke about his endless bare-chested pictures on horseback, with polar bears, in uniform: it’s the language of Russian communication. 

“Macron is answering the dismissive, contemptuous tweets by Medvedev writing he’d be too afraid to come to Kyiv.”

Macron is also pushing back against what is seen in Paris as wilful denial of resources to Ukraine. Berlin was slow to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine and is now resisting sending Taurus long-range missiles.

There was anger in Paris when the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, compared the amount of arms and equipment sent by Germany (€17bn worth) and by France (€900m to €2bn depending on how you count).

“The provoking Kiel release aimed to camouflage Olaf Scholz’s flat refusal to send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine,” says Norbert Röttgen, a Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) MP and until three years ago the head of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee. 

“Chancellor Scholz still believes that Germany should not be perceived as an aggressor by Russia. It was the same with Leopard tanks. Because of our delays the Ukrainian offensive was crucially stalled. Ukrainians died.”

Röttgen believes Scholz suffers from a fatal flaw of timidity. He believes Scholz is unable to realise “that all of us in the West will be more vulnerable if Ukraine loses, or even if it has to make major compromises with Russia.”

Röttgen’s – and CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s – assessment now match Macron’s own conviction, but it is not likely to soften Scholz’s attitude. Scholz is locked in a Liberal-Green-SDP coalition whose well-documented discord could at any moment trigger a snap election before the set 2025 date. The polls are not encouraging.

“Often, depending on whom you ask within the German government, you can get three different answers. And Scholz is incapable of arbitrating,” says a Paris source.

No coincidence then that Germany’s public opinion so far supports not sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz has no mandate to do much more than listen.

The sputtering of the “French-German engine” that has led Europe from the days of Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer’s EEC was in many ways predictable for years. It has little to do with the respective political families of the two countries’ leaders but more the passage of time. [continue]

---

Programming notes…