Mar 6: E-Stories
Day740 Kherson ICC CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies Macron A&P Buziashvili Halushka CDS UKDef ISW Khan Darth Kazansky Garner Weiss Reeves Monocle Times Pistorius Viggo
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Russian attack on Kherson injures man. A Russian strike on Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson wounded a 52-year-old man on March 5, according to Oleksandr Prokudin, the regional governor.
CDS: Due to Russia's repressive policies, just 0.1% of students in Crimea receive education in Ukrainian. Furthermore, the invaders have shuttered nearly 80% of previously registered Ukrainian media outlets. The occupying regime in Crimea has stifled freedom of conscience, cultural expression, and minority identity, while also severely limiting religious freedoms. Throughout the temporary occupation, the number of registered religious organizations in Crimea has dwindled by half.
The international criminal court in The Hague has issued arrest warrants for two senior Russian military figures who are accused of being responsible for a missile campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure between October 2022 and March 2023. Statement by ICC Prosecutor, Karim Khan QC, following the issuance of the two arrest warrants.
The arrest warrants are for Lt Gen Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash of the Russian armed forces, and Adm Viktor Kinolayevich Sokolov of the Russian navy.
Combat Situation Update
CDS: Russian forces maintain the initiative on the Lyman direction but struggle to translate minor tactical successes into operational gains.
On the Kupyansk direction, combat operations continued near Synkivka and Tabaivka.
On the Bakhmut direction, Russian troops have moved towards the center of Ivanivske, engaging in combat on its western outskirts. They aim to disrupt the logistical route of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, which approaches Ivanivske from the north.
On the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces have advanced along a strip of up to 900 meters wide and 450 meters deep south of Orlivka near the Orlivka-Tonenke road.
Russian forces attempt to transfer reserves to the area near Bohdanivka.
ISW: The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that unknown actors detonated explosives and severely damaged a Russian railway bridge over the Chapaevka River near Chapaevsk, Samara Oblast on March 4.
A Russian news aggregator claimed on March 4 that Russian forces replaced Storm-Z convict units with Storm-V units, a mechanism for distributing convicts into the regular Russian military as opposed to keeping them siloed within convict-only units, as was the case with Storm-Z formations.
Military intelligence: Over 50 crew members evacuated from Russia's Sergey Kotov vessel, 7 killed. Ukrainian military intelligence said that 52 crew members who were on board the ship could have been rescued, according to preliminary data.
Russia has taken steps to strengthen its forces in the west and northwest of the country in order to counter NATO, Interfax quoted defence minister Sergei Shoigu as saying on Tuesday. (Me: how vague.)
Behind the Lines
CDS: From February 24, 2022, to February 25, 2024, Russia destroyed or damaged 945 cultural heritage sites in Ukraine, the Culture and Information Policy Ministry of Ukraine reported. As noted by the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, cultural heritage sites were damaged or destroyed in 17 regions. The most affected were the Kharkiv (235), Donetsk (128), Odesa (119), and Kherson (116) Oblasts.
Belgium deported 'dozens of Russian spies' in recent months, De Croo says. Belgium has expelled "dozens of so-called Russian diplomats" who were "clearly spies" from the country in recent months, said Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) over the weekend.
When asked by French-language channel RTL whether Belgium has to fear Russian attempts to destabilise the democracy, De Croo replied that these attempts have already been happening.
"Belgium has deported dozens of so-called Russian diplomats from the country in recent months," he said. "Were they spies? Clearly, yes."
According to De Croo, Russia is also attacking Belgium in other ways. "If we take a stand against Russia, we know that very often our websites become targets of cyber attacks in the following hours."
China creates clone of Ukrainian blogger selling Russian goods
Stolen and modified online images are being used to create avatars that speak Chinese and promote love for China.
Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, has said their investigation into the military leak has found communications systems were not compromised and maintains that trust remains “unbroken” amongst allies.
“We will take technical and organisational measures so such an incident does not happen again,” said Pistorius, accusing Russia of “trying to drive a division at home in Germany”.
The defence minister said one participant on the call used a “non-secure line’ to dial into the webex call. Pistorius added they assume Russians tapped into the call via a participant who dialled in on the phone, “by chance using widespread surveillance”, reports Reuters.
Polish media reported Tuesday that three unidentified objects looking like weather balloons have been found in the country’s northeast, and some of them had Cyrillic inscriptions.
The objects were in Poland’s Mazury lake district, between 20 kilometers and 100 kilometers (12 miles and 60 miles) from the border with Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. Private radio RMF FM said none of the balloons had any special devices attached to them.
Emilia Plawska of local police in Szczytno told the media that the military had been notified and would inspect the objects. A spokesman for the regional police, Rafal Jackowski, said there have been “many” incidents with meteorological balloons in the area.
The head of Moldova’s Information and Security Service has Russia is planning fresh attempts to meddle in the country’s internal affairs by provoking protests, interfering in upcoming presidential elections, and disrupting plans to join the European Union.
“Russian intelligence services intend to interfere in the election processes this year as well,” Reuters reports Musteata told the media.
“We have information that attempts are being made to compromise a referendum on the European integration, interfere in the presidential elections, as well as discredit government institutions and politicians who support Moldova’s accession to the EU.”
Ukraine is pressing up to 10 EU member states to allow the extradition of criminals to the country, including suspects involved with the Wagner group and those accused of large-scale corruption. Andriy Kostin, the prosecutor general of Ukraine, will tell EU justice ministers gathered in Brussels on Tuesday that the country has addressed concerns over security and conditions for prisoners on remand awaiting trial during a war. About 700 extradition orders had been issued by Ukrainian courts since the war started, he revealed.
Searches in Bakhchisarai and Dzhankoy districts of Crimea Security officers (FSB of Crimea) conducted mass searches in Crimean Tatars Muslims’ houses today. The first reports about this came at 3.57 am.
Meanwhile in Russia
Meduza Russian battalion of far-right soccer fans: Alongside its regular army units, mobilized units, and prisoners’ units waging war in Ukraine, Russia has dozens of pseudo-mercenary units that receive financing from large companies and state agencies. The Uran battalion, for example, is funded by Russian state space corporation Roscosmos; the Soyuz unit, which consists of martial artists, is supported by state-owned companies Sberbank and Rosatom; and before his death, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin spoke of private military companies linked to energy giant Gazprom. According to journalists at independent outlet iStories, the oligarch brothers Boris and Arkady Rotenberg decided to get in on the trend by taking control of the Española battalion, a paramilitary group of far-right football fans.
Den Kazansky: Field commander of the “DPR” Alexandr Khodakovsky admitted that in 2014 Russia sent its troops to Donbass. He said that the Russian army captured part of eastern Ukraine, which later began to be called “DPR” and “LPR” Remember that Russia attacked Ukraine not in 2022 but in 2014.
ISW: The Russian government reportedly hid data on recipients of social support services in 2022, likely to obfuscate casualties suffered in the first year of the war in Ukraine or to cover up the government’s inability to pay promised social support to vulnerable populations.
VCHK-OGPU has learnt that 5 officers of the Russian Federal Security Service were wounded during the battle in Karabulak. The names of the killed militants have also emerged. About 200 law enforcers took part in the operation against the six militants, who were in the flat. Despite this, the battle lasted more than 12 hours. In the course of the battle, five FSB ROSN officers received injuries of varying degrees of severity (2 people - bullet wounds, 3 people. - shrapnel wounds.
Russia may block Wikipedia due to article on VPNs that help reach blocked sites, says lawmaker. Eto Buziashvili has reminded us that Russian military controlled propagandists had already created a ‘wikipedia’-like website in 2014,which disseminates falsehoods and confusion to readers in Russian.
At the International Hippocratic Medical Forum, Archpriest Igor Aksenov said that Russia must develop a program to promote chastity among youth, reports The Moscow Times. Aksenov says this program should be introduced in schools with the aim of preserving the younger generation’s reproductive health. An excerpt from the archpriest’s speech was published by Russian journalist and socialite Ksenia Sobchak.
As part of such a program, Aksenov explains, adolescents should be informed about the harmful effects of premarital sex, the risks of unwanted pregnancy, and the dangers of venereal infections. “Teaching that extramarital sex adversely affects psychological and physical health. They could also make a solemn vow to practice abstinence until marriage,” said the archpriest.
Me: Control over sexuality and health is part of the totalitarian state. In the first years after 1917, the Soviets promoted promiscuity openly (nudity parades in Moscow, abolition of abortion etc..) in order to signal a break with the traditional family values of the Russian culture as represented in the Tsar, the regime, and the Russian Orthodox Church. Based on moral relativism, the Party was to decide what the moral markers were in society. The Party then decided to bring back family values in 1924. The Kremlin plays with what it defines as moral values for the citizens under its regime. The official line now is to make as many children as possible: more people to be able to send to the front and repopulate areas under Russian occupation.
Russia’s defence manufacturer Rostec won’t deploy their most advanced battle tank the T-14 Armata to Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence. In the latest intelligence update, the MoD said the chair of Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, stated the T-14 had entered service but would not be deployed to Ukraine. “Chemezov stated this was due to the high cost limiting manufacturing of the Armata Main Battle tank (MBT) at scale,” the update said.
U.S. Air Force employee charged with giving classified information to woman he met on dating site.
A civilian employee of the U.S. Air Force assigned to the U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM), at Offutt Air Force Base, was arrested Saturday, March 2, for allegedly conspiring to transmit and transmitting classified information relating to the national defense (National Defense Information or NDI) on a foreign online dating platform beginning in or around February 2022 until in or around April 2022.
According to the indictment, David Franklin Slater, 63, of Nebraska, worked in a classified space at USSTRATCOM and held a Top Secret security clearance from in or around August 2021 until in or around April 2022, after retiring as a Lieutenant Colonel from the U.S. Army. It is alleged that Slater willfully, improperly, and unlawfully transmitted NDI classified as “SECRET,” which he had reason to believe could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of a foreign nation, on a foreign online dating platform to a person not authorized to receive such information.
Allied Support
France has invited foreign and defence ministers from Ukraine’s main allies and the NATO Secretary General to participate in a video call on Thursday aimed at showing a “united front” and coming up with concrete proposals to boost support for Kyiv.
“The debate that followed reflects only partially the reality of the discussion in Paris and should not overshadow our collective determination to support Ukraine,” according to the invitation seen by Reuters. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will also participate by video call, diplomats said.
Czech President Petr Pavel says he is open to the idea of Western troops being sent to Ukraine: “I’m in favor of looking for new ways, including continuing the discussion about a possible presence in Ukraine. Let's not limit ourselves where we shouldn't”.
Julien Hoez—Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today: "Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."
President Macron on Tuesday said it was time for Ukraine’s allies to step up, stressing now was not the time to be cowardly.
“We are certainly approaching a moment in our Europe where it will be appropriate not to be a coward,” Macron told French expats living in Prague, Reuters reports.
In a reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Macron said on Tuesday that France and the Czech Republic were “well aware that war is back on our soil (in Europe), that some powers which have become unstoppable are extending every day their threat of attacking us even more, and that we will have to live up to history and the courage that it requires.”
Ukraine, Spain start talks on security guarantees. Ukraine and Spain began negotiations on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Group of Seven (G7) Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine, the Presidential Office reported on March 4.
The EU Commission on Tuesday proposed a new 1.5 billion euro ($1.63 billion) defence industry programme, which would be financed from the European Union budget for the period between 2025 and 2027.
The new programme calls on the 27 EU member states to procure at least 40% of their defence equipment collectively by 2030 and aims to have the value of intra-EU defence trade to represent at least 35% of the EU defence market, it added.
France releases list of aid donated to Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022. The newly published list of 50 items includes 30 Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, 38 AMX10 armored fighting vehicles, 250 VAB armored vehicles in various modifications, 160 drones, and 10 drone-detecting systems.
Lithuania will begin confiscating cars with Russian license plates and fining their owners starting on March 11. The new policy will not apply to vehicles going to or coming from Kaliningrad so long as they do not remain in Lithuania for more than 24 hours. Latvia began enforcing a similar policy on February 15. With some exceptions, cars with Russian plates are now prohibited from entering Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway, Bulgaria, and Germany.
Der Spiegel: the head of the German Defense Ministry, Boris Pistorius, has ordered the preparation of proposals to restore compulsory military service. According to closed government documents cited by the publication, Pistorius intends to seek the return of conscription before the elections to the Bundestag, which will be held in the fall of 2025. The relevant proposals, according to Pistorius' order, should be prepared by April 1. Germany suspended compulsory military conscription in 2011 and switched to professional troops.
The newly elected President of Hungary, Tamás Šuyok, signed the bill which officially ratifies Sweden's application to join NATO.
It’s not only the U.S.: George Galloway worked with Aaron Banks and Nigel Farage on the leave campaign for Brexit. He believes in a variety of conspiracy theories, and is as mad as a box of frogs.
’‘I was a prisoner of war. Russia traded me on the black market—The Times
President Putin’s forces are accused of sending PoWs captured in Ukraine to Chechnya, with one man used as a ‘pawn’, losing both legs and hands in captivity
ussian forces are operating a black market of prisoners of war, Ukrainian authorities have told The Times.
Petro Yatsenko, spokesman for Ukraine’s co-ordination headquarters for the treatment of PoWs, said that Chechen paramilitary groups were actively buying up captured Ukrainians from other Russian military factions.
“There have been cases where they bought our wounded from the Russian army, took them to [the Chechen capital of] Grozny, and then exchanged them for their own,” he said.
Though there is no specific article in the Geneva Convention prohibiting the trade of PoWs, the practice is likely to contravene the treaty, which broadly states that “no special agreement shall adversely affect the situation of prisoners of war”.
More than 10,000 Kadyrovites — soldiers loyal to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov — are thought to have crossed into Ukraine.
Having been involved in heavy fighting around Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the early months of the war, their involvement has since largely been limited to policing and logistics operations at a remove from the front line.
They are therefore now less able to capture enemy soldiers themselves, a possible explanation as to why they are buying prisoners who can then be exchanged for Chechens languishing in Ukrainian PoWs camps.
Vyacheslav Levytskiy, 41, was captured by so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) militias in February 2023 and was subsequently sold to the Chechens.
He had been shot in both legs and the abdomen during a nighttime raid on his position in a dugout in the forests to the north of Avdiivka. When he regained consciousness the following day he was alone and spent several days crawling across the frozen earth searching for the rest of his unit. [continue]
This is everything you need to know about Elon Musk.
Politico: Russia using Serbian agent to infiltrate EU bodies, Western intel says
Russian intelligence is using a Serbian agent to infiltrate EU institutions and to spread pro-Kremlin talking points about its invasion of Ukraine, according to a Western intelligence briefing seen by POLITICO.
As recently as October 2023, Serbian national Novica Antić — an active “agent of influence” who knowingly worked closely with Russia’s security agency, according to the documents — held meetings with European officials in Brussels and in particular, Members of the European Parliament.
Those MEPs included German Greens lawmaker Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, Italian Socialists & Democrats lawmaker Alessandra Moretti, and Vladimír Bilčík, a Slovakian member of the conservative European People’s Party Group, according to a press release and a photo seen by POLITICO. There is nothing in the intelligence briefing to suggest that Moretti, Bilčík and von Cramon-Taubadel were aware of Antic’s FSB links when they met with him. [continue]
Programming notes…
Monocle’s Foreign Desk: As former US president Donald Trump undermines Nato, is it high time for Europe to get its act together and spend more on defence? What would another Trump presidency mean for the future of the alliance?
Andrew Mueller speaks to Ukrainian politician Hanna Hopko, former Estonian president Toomas Hendriks Ilves, Estonia’s minister of defence, Hanno Pevkur, and Nato policy planning chief Benedetta Berti.
Hi Monique - love the crossover with Monocle. I listen to the Globalist (sadly on US time which leaves me a bit behind!) on the walk home from school drop off each morning and the Foreign Desk is also one of my faves, having been directed there by Clarissa Ward's recommendation. Their coverage is much like yours - all the main news but a lot more behind the scenes and stories that aren't be covered by the MSM.