May 1: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Vadym Vietrov: A 98-year-old grandmother walked 10 km to get out of the occupied part of Ocheretne to try at all costs to reach free Ukrainian territory. Mrs. Lidia Stepanivna was left without food and water under Russian bombing. In the evening she was rescued by the military.
“I survived WWII, but this war is worse. In WWII not a single house in our village burnt - and now there’s nothing left,” she added.
Stories we’re following…
Russian strike on Odesa kills 5, injures 32. According to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper, a missile struck residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. The building is owned by one of Yanukovych’s mafia friends, who helped him to steal the 2004 election, so I’m unconcerned about the building.
Russian attack on Kherson Oblast kills man. Russian forces attacked the village of Kizomys in Kherson Oblast on April 29, killing a 60-year-old man, regional Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 7 over past day. Russia targeted a total of nine Ukrainian oblasts — Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk. Casualties were reported in the latter three regions.
The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe instructed the Secretary General of the Council Maria Pejchynovych-Burych to start preparing a potential draft agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe regarding the actual establishment of a Special Tribunal for the Crimes of Aggression against Ukraine. This all to punish Russia for their crime of aggression against Ukraine.
Overnight, more than 10 explosions were heard in Hvardiiske, Dzhankoy, Henichesk and Simferopol in occupied Crimea. The Crimean bridge was also closed. In addition, a powerful explosion rang out in occupied Mariupol.
Combat Situation Update
Dmytro Pletenchuk, Operational Command 'South' Spokesman, reported that Russian forces unsuccesfully tried to storm the recently liberated island of Nestryha. After two failed attempts, they retreated with losses, he added.
ISW: Moscow’s forces have opportunities to push forward around Avdiivka, and also threaten nearby Chasiv Yar. Its capture would give Russia control of a hilltop from which it can attack other key cities forming the backbone of Ukraine’s eastern defenses.
The Air Force told how they will store F-16 fighters to prevent them from being hit by Russia.
"These are enormous funds if we are talking about digging underground, storage facilities, bunkers. This also takes time. Therefore, we are now developing other methods of how to place them, where to place them. We understand that this will be a dispersed use on different types of runways, airfields, where it is difficult for the enemy to find them," Air Force speaker Yevlash said.
“Four battalions of Chechens arrived at a distance of 150-200km to the border with the Sumy region, but we are ready for any scenario,” Deputy Chairman of the Sumy District Council Bitsak said.
Military: Ukraine regaining control over Nestryha Island in Kherson Oblast complicates Russian advances. Ukraine's control over Nestryha Island in Kherson Oblast is tactically important and will make it more difficult for Russian forces to approach Ukrainian positions, Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, told Hromadske Radio on April 29.
Behind the Lines
Drone strikes in the depths of Russia, has led to the fact that Russia has scaled back its fuel exports to near-historic lows shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared to more than 844,000 during the same week in 2023.
Media: Russian politician's wife planned to adopt kidnapped Ukrainian boy, abandoned him due to sickness. The wife of Russian politician Sergey Mironov forcibly took a Ukrainian girl and boy from occupied Kherson to adopt them, but abandoned the boy after it became clear he had ill health, Ukrainian news outlet TSN reported on April 28.
German ex-army officer admits spying for Russia, blames fear of nuclear war. Identified only as Thomas H., the 54-year-old went on trial in Dusseldorf on April 29 charged with conducting espionage on behalf of Moscow and leaking state secrets.
The import of Russian uranium is not the only problem as has been pointed out by some of our guests on Kremlin File. There is also the question of other minerals that the U.S. and other countries are still importing, which continue to increase income for Russia. The fact that alternative sources need to be secured must be addressed, and we’re hoping that the Biden Administration and leaders in the EU are doing just that.
Military intelligence: Over 18,000 Russian troops of Southern Military District have deserted. Over 18,000 soldiers of the district have allegedly deserted, with around 12,000 of them belonging to the 8th Combined Arms Army – a unit often deployed in hostilities in eastern Ukraine.
Czech police conclude Russian agents behind deadly 2014 ammunition depot blasts. Russian military intelligence operatives were responsible for deadly ammunition depot explosions in Czechia in 2014, the Czech police said on April 29 following a three-year investigation.
FT: Western banks paid 4 times more taxes to Russia in 2023 than before all-out war. The largest Western banks that continue to operate in Russia have paid 800 million euros ($857 million) in taxes to its budget in 2023, which is four times more than before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported, citing its analysis.
Lithuania’s FM: Russian GPS jamming of commercial flights 'too dangerous to ignore.' Baltic foreign ministers have warned that the suspected Russian jamming of GPS systems aboard commercial flights is "too dangerous to ignore." This comes after it was revealed that two Finnish aircraft were forced to turn around mid-journey in recent days. Map cortesy of Markus Jonsson.
Jamming has been used in the past off and on as discussed by Keir Giles in his book “Russia’s War on Everyone”. The current GPS jamming offensive by the Russians started in December 2023.
Meanwhile in Russia
Reuters: Chinese companies go 'underground' on Russia payments. Some Chinese banks Major Chinese are limiting payments for transactions with Russia due to concerns about U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported on April 29, citing unnamed trading and banking sources familiar with the matter.
Turkey and China, which took advantage of Western sanctions against Russia and greatly increased supplies of their own and re-exported goods, have noticeably moderated their trade fervor this year. The threat of secondary US sanctions faced by their banks undermined the export boom. Due to problems with payments, companies began to refuse to work with Russia.
Payment processing times for major Chinese banks have increased from days to months, the founder of a Chinese electrical manufacturing firm, who identified himself only as Wang, told Reuters. As the manager of a large state-owned bank explained to him, the credit institution is concerned that they may fall under US sanctions if they conduct transactions with Russia.
A representative of the Big Four Chinese state-owned banks told the agency that his bank has tightened scrutiny of all Russia-related transactions: “The main reason is to avoid unnecessary problems.” Since March, banks have begun to scrutinize transactions with Russia or have abandoned them altogether, according to this and other Reuters sources in banking and trading circles.
Contrary to the Kremlin’s ambitious plans and Putin’s promises, the Russian economy will grow slower than the world over the next five years and will continue to lose its share of global GDP. This forecast is given by the International Monetary Fund in the April block of macroeconomic projections.
According to IMF estimates , at the end of 2023, Russia accounted for 2.94% of global output of goods and services at purchasing power parity (PPP). By 2025, this share will drop to 2.9%, in 2026 it will drop to 2.85%, and in 2027 - to 2.8%.
Border Guard: Polish protesters lift blockade at Ukrainian border. The farmers began blocking trucks at several border crossings in February in protest of Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU's Green Deal.
Me: The farmers need to get to their farms and do their work. I doubt that the protest came to an end because of anything they’ve been offered. Now look out for the student protests to pick up once they have finished their exams.
Hackers from Belarus “CyberPartisans” hacked the KGB website and published 40 thousand denunciations and appeals over the past nine years. They reported this on their Telegram channel.
Together with the intelligence service's database, the hackers posted denunciations on the network, which were sent to KGB officers through the portal from September 2014 to August 2023.
In particular, the authors of the messages talked about residents of Belarus using white-red-white flags banned in the country, sent personal data of people participating in anti-government rallies, and also reported on communities of oppositionists on social networks and instant messengers. The denunciations also included reports of Belarusians fighting on the side of Ukraine.
The Insider: 2 Russians running GRU safe house in Greece outed as spies. Two Russian-born Czech citizens ran a hotel in northern Greece that doubled as a safe house for an infamous unit of Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU) as it carried out bombings and poisonings across Europe, an investigation by The Insider has found.
Allied Support
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg arrives in Kyiv in surprise visit. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Kyiv on April 29 in a previously unannounced visit.
Germany has supplied Ukraine with another batch of military aid, which includes ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks, ten infantry fighting vehicles and a Skynex air defence system. Military aid worth about €28bn (£23.9m) has so far been made available by Germany (or has been earmarked) to support Ukraine over the next few years, according to the German government. In addition, more than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers received military training in Germany, it said.
Norway will increase its aid to Ukraine this year by 7 billion Norwegian crowns ($633 million) to a total of 22 billion in a revised government budget next month, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said today after meeting with opposition leaders.
Latvia donates energy equipment to Ukraine after Russian attacks on infrastructure. The Latvian state-owned company Latvenergo provided Ukraine with equipment to restore the energy system after Russian attacks, the Delfi media outlet reported on April 28.
Italy has kept its shipments to Ukraine behind institutional secrecy. We do know that Italy has shipped Storm Shadows to Ukraine, and OSINT has revealed that Italy has also sent military vehicles.
There may be many reasons for the secrecy, one of which is to deprive the opposition parties, especially the 5 Star Movement, with information that they can weaponise or reveal to Russia.
Former prime minister Giuseppe Conte, head of the 5 Stars Movement, has aligned his party with Russian positions, in keeping with the line that they adopted in parliament after 2015.
Duchess of Edinburgh comes to Ukraine in surprise visit. Sophie, the Duchess of Edinburgh, traveled to Ukraine on April 29 for a one-day visit on behalf of the Foreign Office to "demonstrate solidarity with the women, men and children impacted by the war." She has become the first member of the Royal Family to visit Ukraine since the Russian invasion.
Former President of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves remembers:
40 years ago today in on a street corner in Vienna in the middle of the Cold War, Chernenko recently installed as General Secretary of the CPSU, I had my first glimmer of light hinting that the future might be different from what I had known my whole life: the Russian occupation of Eastern Europe.
It was a moment when the angle of the afternoon sunlight glinted off a quoin just above street level near Petersplatz. What otherwise to the naked eye and in direct light looked like a stone surface, revealed in the the slightest of shadows a stenciled streetname.
In Cyrillic. Something indecipherable and Гассе, or Gasse or Gaße, “alleyway”. Leftover from when Austria was partitioned into four Allied zones.
Yes. Russian occupations can indeed end. Some crude remnants will remain as sloppy, typically Sov stencils on an elegant Fin-de-siecle facade. As they do today across Central and Eastern Europe on facades and occasionally in minds as well.
But they can end.
Don't believe it? Read Ivanishvili's speech:
He is going to stamp out all dissent, including shutting down all NGOs and mass arrests. This will not take 15 years like in Russia. Georgia is small. Still don't believe? Read it again.
He said the West installed “agents” with the Rose Revolution in Georgia and using Georgia “as cannon fodder” forcing it to fight Russia in 2008. Putin and Lavrov have not said anything different since 2008. In short, Ivanishvili has declared a Jihad on the West.
Mtavari TV: Another peaceful protest action is taking place in front of the Parliament of Georgia. The government still defends itself with special forces. From one of the entrances of the parliament, the police forcibly removed the members of the Ahali party.
Eto Buziashvili on the current situation in Georgia: The “Yanukovich Moment”?
Is this "Yanukovich moment" of Georgia’s oligarch? It seems so. Bidzina Ivanishvili, the oligarch behind ruling Georgian Dream confirmed yesterday what we have observed since he came to power in 2012 – he announced a shift in Georgia’s foreign policy and political repressions.
Below are highlights from oligarch Ivanishvili's à la Lukashenka speech that is a turning moment for Georgia: He unequivocally labeled the US and EU, the West in general, as a foreign enemy.
Said that the West plans a coup to overthrow current regime, drag Georgia into war with Russia; previous govt was a Western spy network brought to power by the West and the latter was behind all troubles in Georgia and Ukraine, including 2008, 2014, and 2022 Russian invasions.
He unequivocally labeled civil society as a domestic enemy. Said that Georgian civil society is part of the Western spy network, along with the political opposition, and that neither can exist without Western support. Announced their destruction after the October elections.
He mentioned Yanukovych and essentially warned against challenging him. He implied that while Ukrainians succeeded in defending their European future and ousting the pro-Russian government, the same will not occur in Georgia.
He admitted that he needs to adopt a Russian-style "foreign agents law" for political repression. His words suggested that they aim to exhaust civil society and media by focusing on this law now, leaving them with no capacity to defend the elections in October.
He said "after the elections, the collective United National Movement will face moral and legal responsibility". This is the title of the former governing party, and Ivanishvili uses the term "collective UNM" to describe anyone who disagree with him.
Nothing new in his speech; however, it's a turnin point because he officially declared a foreign policy shift. Unfortunately, throughout these years, Georgia's friends were either naively optimistic or chose to ignore the seriousness of Russian capture for various reasons.
Ivanishvili made his intentions unmistakably clear yesterday. He announced plans for election capture, censorship, and Soviet-style political repression, akin to Lukashenka's rule, to be implemented immediately after the October 2024 elections.
This means that those of us who desire an independent and free Georgia with a liberal democracy and a Euro-Atlantic future will be faced with the choice of either submitting to Russia-dictated rule or leaving the country. If we do neither, they will imprison us.
Make no mistake—everything will be done according to Moscow's instructions by an oligarch who amassed his fortune in Russia and came to power in 2012 with the mandate to capture Georgia and turn it into a satellite state of Russia.
The recent developments necessitate an immediate policy shift from the West regarding Georgia. The West should acknowledge that from now on they are dealing with Lukashenka-style Russia-aligned rule in Georgia and act accordingly.
As for us, the Georgian people, we have made our intentions clear as well: we will defend our freedom and European future. We are not afraid. See you in front of the Parliament building this evening.
Gamziri24: The police in Tblisi now using pepper spray to disperse the protesters.
The EU Parliament put out a video inviting voters to cast their choices carefully. There has been a lot of attention to the infiltration of the EU in Germany, Czechia, and other states, as reported about the Russian and Chinese payments to EU MEPs widely reported in the press.
Decode39: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addressed the general conference of her party, Brothers of Italy (FDI), launching the political campaign ahead of the European elections scheduled for 6-9 June.
During her speech, the PM announced that she would be running for the European Parliament as the head of her party’s lists in every constituency. The move is intended to boost the party’s vote, as she plans to decline the post once elected and retain her seat in the Italian Parliament.
During the speech, PM Meloni spoke at length about her government’s stance on Ukraine, highlighting Italy’s military and economic support for Kyiv during her year and a half in office, in line with NATO allies.
G7 Meeting: The meeting concluded with a landmark agreement to phase out coal by 2035 and a commitment to invest $600 billion a year to support renewables. Italy aligns with France in supporting nuclear energy, while the G7 underlined the importance of North-South cooperation on climate finance. In the background, Italy is seeking coordination between the Mattei Plan for Africa and G7 projects on green energy and sustainable finance
Russia’s Shadow Fleet Goes Rogue—Elisabeth Braw
The frequent presence of the Kremlin’s sanctions-dodging vessels off the coast of Gotland, where they perform dangerous ship-to-ship transfers of oil, is a clear provocation, not to mention a looming threat to marine life.
Now the Swedish Navy reports that shadow vessels in the waters of Sweden’s exclusive economic zone don’t just conduct their regular business: they’re also equipped with communications gear that is in no way needed by standard merchant vessels. The Russian shadow fleet appears to simultaneously be a spy fleet.
This collection of ships — estimated to number about 1,400 vessels worldwide — may operate in the shadows, but it’s indisputably there, and its activities are growing – especially in the Baltic Sea. The fleet transports pretty much anything asked of them, and in the past two years that has meant a lot of Russian oil, because Russia wants to keep exporting above the Western-imposed price cap.
Since vessels owned, flagged, or insured in the West (which is virtually the world’s entire merchant fleet, because Western insurers dominate shipping) can’t transport sanctioned cargo, Russia has turned to the shadow fleet.
These are aging vessels that feature mysterious owners and de facto lack full insurance. The vessels also frequently change their flag registration, though many appear to have settled on Gabon and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), two countries that lack maritime expertise and seem willing to accept any entrant into their registries. The two registries do little if their vessels cause accidents or need help.
This all means trouble for the Baltic Sea states since a large percentage of Russia’s oil departs from its Baltic Sea ports. (This author discussed the shadow fleet in a report here.)
In recent weeks, shadow vessels have also taken to loitering in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone to the east of Gotland. And they don’t just loiter: they frequently conduct ship-to-ship transfers of oil, the perilous maneuver by which oil is transferred from one ship to another at sea.
They could choose to do so somewhere else but have selected the area just outside Sweden’s territorial waters (inside which Sweden would have a bit more power to intervene.) Their presence is certainly provocative. And such is the risk these vessels pose to marine life that earlier this month the environmental organization Greenpeace decided to intervene. “Oil fuels war. People want peace,” Greenpeace activists painted on the bunker vessel that supports the shadow fleet off the coast of Gotland.
The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s criminal trial held him in contempt and fined him $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order. The judge determined that Mr. Trump had broken the gag order by making several statements on social media and on his campaign website in which he attacked witnesses and the jury.
Trump comments in Time Magazine on aid to Ukraine:
"I will not give a single penny to Ukraine unless Europe starts to level up in aid," Trump stated. “If Europe is not going to pay, why should we? They have suffered much more. There is an ocean between us but no ocean between them," he added.
Protesters at Columbia University occupied Hamilton Hall during the night on April 30. I won’t be publishing the video footage. From what I have been able to gather they are very well organised.
The woman at Columbia University who is seen in videos is Lisa Fithian. She is a professional protest organiser, who worked for the Washington Peace Centre, in D.C., before it was closed in 2020. She made her debut at the WTO protest in Seattle, and her latest protest campaign was with Extinction Rebellion.
Besides the literature which is available on Russo-Chinese relations, I recently attended a lecture on this topic to learn a bit more. The consensus is that their relations have historically been as adversaries, barring a short period during the Cold War.
