May 10: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China Europe PanyiHun ISW CDS Noel KyivIndie Ukrinform IntTribunal CoalitionWilling Slovakia Iran NATO Rosenberg Georgia CND FR-POLDef Simion USTrade
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv today. See In Europe section.
Stories we’re following…
2 killed, 12 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine despite declared 'ceasefire.' Although Moscow declared on April 28 that it would halt all military actions from May 8 to midnight on May 11 to mark Victory Day, strikes on civilian areas have continued.
Zarina Zabrisky reporting from Kherson: Russian drone attacks against civilians continue unabated.
“This is an elderly man killed by a Russian drone by his house. Human safari.”
CDS: In Ukraine, April of this year became the deadliest month for civilians since September 2024 due to Russia's widespread use of ballistic missiles, according to the monthly report of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. The UN reported at least 209 deaths and another 1,146 injuries in April.
For the second consecutive day, the Air Force has not recorded the use of Shahed-type strike drones by the enemy; however, Russia continues to terrorize the border areas of Sumy Oblast with guided aerial bombs. Over the past day, the enemy fired around 130 KABs, and by midday on May 9, more than fifty additional aerial bombs were launched. A woman was killed in the Richky community.
As part of President Zelensky's "Bring Kids Back UA" initiative, nine children were returned from territories temporarily occupied by Russia. Among them is 14-year-old Dmytro, whose home was near a Russian firing position, and the family lived under constant sounds of gunfire. At school, the boy was forced to sing military songs and throw grenades, while some of his classmates were sent to military camps where they were trained by Wagner militants.
Russia erects Stalin monument in occupied Melitopol to mark Victory Day. Under Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin's rule, millions of Ukrainians died during the Holodomor, a man-made famine in 1932–1933. The dictator also oversaw mass deportations, purges of Ukrainian intellectuals and leaders, and the suppression of the Ukrainian language and culture.
Combat Situation
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) made four attempts to break through to the Kursk and Belgorod regions and fired at the territory of the Russian Federation almost 1.5 thousand times, despite the "festive" ceasefire announced by Vladimir Putin for May 9. This was stated by the Ministry of Defense.
CDS: On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces advanced along Chapaeva Street in Tetkino and southeast of the village, attacked near Novyi Put, and hold their positions in Kursk Oblast. Russian troops advanced to the international border south of Oleshnia.
In Sumy Oblast, Russian troops advanced to the center of Loknia and attempted to advance near Vodolaha, Bilovody, and Loknia.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops attempted to advance on the eastern outskirts of Vovchansk and attacked near Vovchanski Khutory.
Ukrinform news:
No signs of enemy preparing large-scale airborne operation to cross the Dnipro River – Voloshyn
Voloshyn denies reports of enemy advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk region
About 60% of weapons, military equipment in Ukraine produced by private sector
Behind the Lines
Ukrinform: An awareness campaign has been launched in Ukraine to promote the national program to compensate farmers for the cost of clearing their lands from mines and other explosive remnants of war. The campaign will be implemented by the Ministry of Economy, the national platform Demine Ukraine, and the Humanitarian Demining Center with support from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Ukraine and with funding from the Republic of Korea.
Russian propagandists fabricated a video of an invented incident, falsely attributed to USA Today
Russian Telegram channels are circulating a video featuring the logo of the U.S. media outlet USA Today. The video claims that U.S. police allegedly detained a Ukrainian national attempting to set fire to a McDonald's office in Chicago. The supposed motive is the company's rumored return to the Russian market.
Following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, McDonald's suspended its operations in the aggressor country. On May 16, 2022, the company announced its full exit from the Russian market and the sale of its business there.
Reuters: Iran is preparing to send Russia launchers for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles, sources say—giving Moscow a faster, easier strike option against Ukrainian frontline targets and deepening military ties between Tehran and the Kremlin.
Atlantic Council: Navigating a new era of NATO: Wed, May 14, 2025 • 9:30 am ET. Don’t forget to set your reminders.
The Atlantic Council—in partnership with the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence—will host the fourth iteration of its high-level NATO Summit curtain raiser discussion to preview priorities ahead of the summit in The Hague.
The NATO Alliance faces unprecedented challenges. As NATO seeks to deter Russia and adapt to potentially lessened US engagement and support in the region, NATO’s Summit in The Hague comes at a critical moment for the Alliance and the future of the transatlantic relationship.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Moscow Times: In his speech at the Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin made almost no mention of the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for four years, and refrained from making threats to Western countries. In his speech , which lasted about 10 minutes , he mainly spoke about the heroism of the participants in the Great Patriotic War, who “bequeathed to us to defend the Motherland, to be united, to firmly defend our national interests and traditional values.”
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: “On Red Square I saw Xi Jinping, ballistic missile launchers and met a 99-year-old war veteran. 80 years since the defeat of Nazi Germany Russia is celebrating. But no sign of victory for Russia in Ukraine more than 3 years after its full-scale invasion.”
Reuters: Russia is undertaking a major factory expansion in Siberia to ramp up production of a powerful explosive used in artillery shells and other munitions in the war in Ukraine, a Reuters review of publicly available state documents and satellite imagery has found.
The additional explosive anticipated from the project, which has not previously been reported, could help increase Moscow's firepower significantly at a time when Ukraine and its Western allies have been stepping up production of ordnance needed to thwart Russian advances, three defence analysts said. News of its existence comes as Russia has been pounding Ukraine with artillery, missile and drone strikes, and as U.S. President Donald Trump presses for a deal to end the war, which began with Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Russia has closed airspace over parts of Volgograd and Saratov regions, including the Kapustin Yar range, from 06:00 on May 12 to 06:00 on May 13—likely for a ballistic missile test, as the "BO" code and unlimited altitude restriction suggest.
Zelensky imposes sanctions on Russian nationals, companies from Russia, China, Iran, Uzbekistan. The sanctions list includes 58 individuals and 74 companies, with 67 Russian enterprises related to military technology.
Moscow Times: Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who flew to Moscow to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Victory, will not return to Havana empty-handed.
Russia is ready to invest $1 billion in the Cuban economy by 2030, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko after Diaz-Canel completed talks with President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.
Nguyen Ho: China is unilaterally banning fishing in the large areas of the South China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Taiwan Strait, regions where China has overlapping maritime claims with multiple neighbors.
Beijing has begun this fishing moratorium under the guise that it is intended to allow marine populations to recover. When the stake in the region involves several other countries, wasn't their permission required?
The Philippines and Vietnam have strongly opposed the ban, viewing it as a violation of their EEZs and a breach of international maritime law, including the 1982 UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling.
China’s export growth for April 2025 increased. Justin Wolfers explains why. The US is waging a tariff war on 192 countries, and China against just one.
Scabolz Panyi: In a leaked audio, Orbán's defense minister says Hungary's army is being reshaped “to break with the peace mentality and move toward phase zero of the road leading to war.” It's unlikely he means a war against Russia — he was a business partner of Russia's Transmashholding.
The audio, recorded in April 2023—likely at an internal briefing—was published by Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar. Before releasing it, Magyar claimed the speech debunks the Orbán government’s lies about its “pro-peace” policies. And it does.
But a far more disturbing question is: what kind of war is Orbán preparing his army for?
Recent alarming actions and statements from government officials suggest the Balkans may be a focus, though Hungary is also sending a mission to Chad. At this point, it's still speculation.
But this leaked audio should raise concern among Hungary’s NATO allies, who ought to ask directly whether Orbán is preparing for a defensive war against Russia—or something else entirely.
Transcript of the short audio:
"The fifth Orbán government has decided to build a truly effective, combat-ready Hungarian armed force. This means breaking with our previous peacekeeping activities. We are familiar with those, but above all, as a result of a process, we are breaking with the peace mentality. Naturally, the process that the public came to know as rejuvenation [firing senior, NATO-trained officers en masse] is simply the easiest way to change this — to break with the peace mentality and move toward the zero phase of the path leading to war. I have tasked Lieutenant General Dr. Gábor Böröndi [as new chief of staff of the Hungarian Armed Forces] with the execution and implementation of this."
Scabolz Payni: Viktor Orbán’s reelection hopes are fading as his economic mismanagement hits him in the polls. His tactic? Ramp up blackmail over EU aid to Ukraine to unlock frozen EU funds for his corrupt government—hoping to pump cash into Hungary’s economy before the April 2026 election.
EU’s foreign chief, Kaja Kallas, commented on Slovakia and Serbian authorities present in Moscow for the parade: “All those who truly support peace cannot stand side-by-side with Putin. Those who truly support peace should be in Ukraine tomorrow, not Moscow.”
Slovakia’s PM Roberto Fico posted the letter below on Twitter yesterday to retort against Kaja Kallas’s comments on his presence at the May 9th events in Moscow yesterday. Some of his own ministers said publicly that he was there on a personal visit and did not represent the government of Slovakia.
In the EU…
Public prosecutors in Germany have moved to strip a politician from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) of his immunity as a lawmaker after initiating a probe into bribery and money laundering allegations, local media reported on Friday.
Prosecutors in the eastern city of Dresden confirmed that an investigation had been initiated against a German lawmaker on charges of bribery while he was a member of the European Parliament as well as money laundering in connection with Chinese payments.
European ministers approve special tribunal to prosecute Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The approval marks a key step in international efforts to hold Moscow accountable for what is considered the gravest violation of international law committed against Ukraine.
Kaja Kallas: “Every inch of Russia’s war has been documented. It leaves no room for doubt. And no room for impunity. Today we take a decisive step towards justice by agreeing to establish a Special Tribunal to ensure that those responsible for aggression against Ukraine are held accountable.”
Kaja Kallas: “We are in Ukraine today with very important deliverables:
€1 billion for Ukraine’s defence industry. This is where we can help Ukraine the most.
The establishment of a Special Tribunal to ensure that those responsible for aggression against Ukraine are held accountable.”
President Zelensky said that European leaders from the “coalition of the willing” will be meeting in Ukraine today. “In Ukraine, we are also preparing to meet with the leaders of the coalition of the willing … Tomorrow we have meetings,” Zelensky told a military summit in Oslo via video link, AFP reported, without saying who would attend.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have arrived in Kyiv. I cannot help but note that Meloni is not there. Former PM Mario Draghi had gone to Kyiv in June 2022 alongside Macron and Scholz.
Kaja Kallas: “We join Ukraine and international partners, including the US, in calling for a full, unconditional ceasefire of at least 30 days. It is now for Russia to show its willingness to achieve peace.”
Russian response—Russia will not agree to a ceasefire: "Ukraine will continue mobilizing, send more troops to the battlefield, and use this time to train fresh forces who are now resting," — Peskov.
France and Poland signed an treaty on defence, nuclear energy and other measures yesterday. Given Poland’s resources and infrastructure, Poland is set to become a state to watch within Europe.
Arté: Since joining the European Union 20 years ago, Poland has seen steady economic growth. By attracting foreign investments in cutting-edge sectors, the country has transformed. But this golden age could be coming to an end. Poland will not only need to successfully transition away from coal and find a more sustainable source of energy, but also redistribute wealth across the country, which suffers from economic inequality.
The United States and its European allies are finalising a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that if refused would see them jointly impose new sanctions on Russia, a French diplomatic source said on Friday. The source said the proposal had still not been given a green light and would be worked on over the weekend at a summit being held in Ukraine.
Support for Ukraine is the “absolute focus” of Britain and its northern European allies, Keir Starmer said as he attended a military summit in Norway that coincided with Russia’s Victory Day celebrations. The prime minister met counterparts at a Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) leaders’ gathering in Oslo on Friday, during which Volodymyr Zelenskyy also spoke virtually.
Pro-EU activists and supporters were out in Bucharest yesterday to celebrate Europe Day. In the up-coming presidential elections, Nicusor Dan is the pro-EU candidate who is in the run off election on May 18 against George Simion whose platform includes leaving NATO and the Western alignment among other anti-establishment related measures.
Maia Sandu: "I will personally go vote for Nicusor Dan! [...] There's room for an even higher mobilization here in Moldova. Romania is our pillar of support and our reliable friend [...] Our voice here will be crucial for a strong European Romania!".
Simion demands Ukraine repay aid, opposes further support. George Simion, leader of Romania's far-right AUR party, who won the first round of the presidential election with nearly 40% of the vote, reiterated that if elected, he would oppose any further assistance to Ukraine and shift Romania’s focus inward.
Why do the Romanian elections matter? Romania has been an ally to Ukraine, and has born the brunt of Russian hybrid attacks as well as attacks on its port on the Black Sea. It borders Ukraine to the south, and is an integral part in NATO’s Black Sea defence strategy. Should it veer toward Russia and authoritarian powers, it could be used as a staging areas for attacks against Ukraine from the south.
Georgia’s isolation from the EU continues amid the repressive measures the Georgian Dream-led government wield against opposition members, journalists, and activists. Kobakhidze says it’s unfair that Georgia was the only candidate country not invited to the EU Foreign Affairs Council: “This injustice began when we refused to open a second front in 2022… It’s a coordinated effort by European bureaucrats under orders from the deep state.” The GD-led government blames the ‘deep state’ powers to distract from its denial of civic rights.
Times Radio: Officials are still hoping the UK-US trade deal can be negotiated further to lower tariffs for UK exports, explains Reuters White House correspondent Andrea Shalal.
In other news…
US court orders release of $12M RFE/RL funding after Trump administration freeze. The ruling marks a significant victory for RFE/RL amid growing concerns about U.S. funding cuts to independent media countering Russian disinformation.
Kaitlin Collins for CNN: "We currently do not have any container ships at port right now.” - Seattle's port commissioner. The decrease in containers spells a disaster for US consumers and businesses and employees tied to this sector.
Howard Lutnick: “We feel really good about the deal….We started at 10% tariffs and ended at 10% and the market for America is better and this is a perfect example of why Donald Trump produced Liberation Day.”
Alberta separation? Not really. Fox commentators talking about the likelihood of Alberta’s succession from Canada cite that 30% of Albertans want to leave Canada. This number does not reflect that reality of the facts on the ground. Firstly, premier Danielle Smith does not support succession but is looking for what she calls a ‘reset’ with Ottawa. Secondly, the Republican Party of Alberta has 3,000 members, and does not represent the great majority of Albertans who do not want sovereignty. More to come on the merits of the claims that Alberta contributes more to Canada than what it gets back in national disbursements, a claim that resurfaces when the oil companies are doing well but seems to disappear when they aren’t.
What is happening? The Alberta separation issue is often used as a harassment measure against the government in Ottawa. It also makes for great press and pressure for the Americans who are in a trade war with Canada.