May 11 Buonasera up-date

Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, UK, NATO, Russian conspiracy theories, EU measures

May 11, 2022

The situation in Kherson region, the only part of Ukraine Russia has managed to occupy and hold since February 24, is very dire. People, loyal to Ukraine, are kidnapped, tortured in secret prisons. Food and medicines are lacking. Escape routes are almost closed

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

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"Let’s build peace, the peace that Ukraine wants, not the one imposed by certain allies or others.” - Prime Minister Mario Draghi

Here are some other stories we’re following…

President Zelensky confirms that a counteroffensive has succeeded in pushing out Russian forces north of Kharkiv.
Vladislav Davidzon reports “all Russian assets in Ukraine will be transferred to the state, according to Zelensky and the PM-the confiscated assets will be transferred to a newly created National Investment Fund. Zelenskyy added that “Russia must pay for what it has destroyed”.
European Commission: Ukraine needs up to 600 billion euros for reconstruction due to Russia's war.
Lithuania has designated Russia as a terrorist country, and its actions in Ukraine as genocide. The Czech Republic has also recognized Russia committing genocide in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent: The Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine said it completed the first investigation of a war crime. The case accusing the Russian commander of the 4th tank division of killing a civilian in Sumy Oblast was sent to court.
RIA Novosti: UKR's Kherson Region has declared that the city will apply to Putin to directly join Russia, without a referendum or the creation of a client state. Clearly, RUS has decided to drop all pretense & pursue direct annexation of UKR territory.
Reuters: GTSOU, which operates Ukraine’s gas system, said it would stop shipments via the Sokhranivka route from Wednesday, declaring “force majeure”, a clause invoked when a business is hit by something beyond its control.
The Kyiv Independent: Russian authorities reported that nearly 9,000 Ukrainians, including 1,106 children, were deported to Russia from Ukraine, specifically the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, over the last 24 hours.

Stanisław Żaryn @StZaryn

Kremlin #propaganda continues its all-encompassing #disinformation campaign against Poland embedded in the context of the Russian #WARINUKRAINE. Recently, the #RU regime has exploited the issues it believes to have the biggest potential to pit the Poles against Ukrainians. 1/11

The Guardian: prime minister, Boris Johnson, has arrived in Sweden where he has signed a security declaration pledging support should Sweden be attacked and he will also visit Finland to discuss the Nordic countries’ ambitions to apply for Nato membership.
EU: Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders announces that the Commission is working on an instrument to confiscate the assets of sanctioned Russian individuals and entities in all EU countries and put the resources into a common fund to compensate Ukraine. Circumventing the sanctions will become a crime.
AFP: Sweden inks mutual defence deal with UK ahead of NATO decision.
Finnish president set to announce tomorrow Finland joining NATO and will make a joint statement with Sweden. There is popular support Finland’s decision (76%).

Bloomberg: Germany Poised to Become LNG Powerhouse With Law to Cut Red Tape

Germany’s Federal Cabinet gave the green light to draft legislation to cut the approval process for such facilities to a 10th of the usual time. The government is planning four floating terminals, allowing it to replace at least 70% of Russian gas imports and marking a significant u-turn in energy policy after years of resisting costlier U.S. LNG.

US House of Representatives approve Ukraine funding

A supplemental bill, introduced by the US House of Appropriations Committee voted to provide $39.8bn (£32.3bn) in aid for Ukraine on Tuesday. It includes $6bn for security assistance, as well as $8.7bn to pay for the replenishment of US military stocks already sent to Ukraine. Another $3.9bn is earmarked for intelligence and mission support.

The BBC: Putin preparing for long war

As per US intelligence, Putin is preparing for a long war in Ukraine, with even victory in the east potentially not ending the conflict.
Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, told a US Senate committee hearing on Tuesday that Putin was still intending "to achieve goals beyond the Donbas", but that he "faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia's current conventional military capabilities".

Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone

Yesterday, north of the city of Kharkiv (northeast #Ukraine), #Ukrainian forces liberated 4 villages, close to the 🇷🇺 border. President Zelensky spoke about the counteroffensive last night. Urged people "not to spread excessive emotions... where victories are expected weekly..."

Russian MoD going full Q-Anon

The briefing on WMD development in Ukraine maps out a global conspiracy including: Obama - Clinton - Soros - Biden - Rockefellers - Pfizer - Moderna - German government - Polish government - Robert Koch Institute. Hold on! Where’s the Pope? They translated it in English: expect to see it on FB et al.

RIA Novosti: A terrorist attack on the eve of May 9 was prevented in Kaliningrad

"A citizen of Russia who planned on the eve of the celebration of Victory Day to commit a terrorist act against the military personnel of one of the military units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation," the release says.

Big Daddy is back in the news…

Many reports indicate of large Belarusian troop movements towards the borders with Ukraine and Poland, as well as signs of mobilization. Putin has been demanding Lukashenko attacks towards the SSW in order to disrupt supply lines of NATO equipment coming into Ukraine.

Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova

Lukashenka keeps imagining enemies around him. He has blamed NATO as always, using this pretext for talking about army supplies. He has ambitions to strengthen the army with weapons and missiles, including Iskanders. Russians will have even more control over #Belarus through that

Lt-Gen (retired) Ben Hodges, NATO Must Re-Learn Deterrence- CEPA

The Western reaction to the current crisis in Ukraine shows that we will have to revive the concept of deterrence, and quickly. While Western nations have sanctioned Russia and delivered increasing amounts of weaponry to Ukraine, there is little sign that we are influencing the calculations of Vladimir Putin, regardless of the outcome on the battlefield. Even the entanglement of our economies has not kept Russia’s leader from gambling everything.

The hidden crime in the war…

In a recent spaces, Olga Tokariuk hosted a panel of experts on how the Russian forces use rape as a weapon in the occupied territories. Clink on the tweet below to listen to the recording.

Reuters Institute @risj_oxford

4️⃣ Today at at 3:30🇬🇧 Ukrainian journalist @olgatokariuk will lead this @TwitterSpaces on documenting the use of rape as a weapon of war by Russia in Ukraine. She'll be joined by @KLevchenkoUKR and @avalaina https://t.co/BCOgH2SlmT

We hosted Oleksandra Matviichuk at the onset of Russia’s renewed war of aggression, and she talked about the volunteers and personnel who were gathering evidence and testimony for war crimes in Ukraine. Here she expands on her comments with Times Radio.

Times Radio @TimesRadio

"Some victims have their teeth knocked out, limbs are broken, sexual organs are seriously injured." Kyiv-based human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) says the scope and brutality of Russians using rape as a weapon of war is much more visible than in 2014.

Spaces is back on May 12…

We took a break last week. Scott and I will be joined by security specialist guests Alexander Khara and Edward Lucas as we up-date you on developments in Ukraine.

As per usual, the ‘backstage’ will begin at 5:45pm CET and then our conversation is set for 6pm CET. Please send your questions and comments to Scott’s DMs as I’ll be busy bringing in the guests.

WTF news…

If you missed WTF on YouTube yesterday, you can listen to it here. Livia and I were joined by Yaryna Grusha Possamai and we talked about Ukraine’s agency, Yaryna’s take on the latest Russian disinformation rolling around social media and other related issues.

Mauro Voerzio is back with one of his videos on disinformation: strategy of chaos and how it plays out in Italian media.