May 11: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attack on Nikopol kills 2, injures 8. A Russian attack on the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed two people and injured eight others, Governor Serhii Lysak reported on May 9.
A Russian missile attack on Kharkiv injured two people and set three houses on fire in the early hours of Friday, Reuters has reported.
Two people, including an 11-year-old child, were shell-shocked, Governor Oleh Syniehubov wrote on the Telegram messaging app. Mayor Ihor Terekhov said an S-300 missile crashed into the city, damaging 26 buildings, destroying two of them completely but he did not clarify what those buildings were.
Civilian casualties reported amid intense Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Intense Russian attacks in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, which forms part of the Ukraine-Russia border, have killed three civilians and injured four others, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on May 10.
In Kyiv, the alarm sounded during Zelensky's joint press conference with the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola. She arrived in Kyiv for Europe Day.
EU Ambassador to Ukraine: Ukraine could join EU in 2030. 2030 is a very real date for Ukraine to join the European Union, Katarina Mathernova, the EU ambassador to Ukraine, said in an interview on May 9.
Zelensky: Ukraine expects EU accession negotiations to begin in June. Ukraine expects to begin accession negotiation to join the European Union in June, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 9.
Incredible footage: Mobile fire groups attacking Russian Shahed drones that attacked the Odesa region overnight. Preliminary information that a Russian Su-25 was shot down in the Avdiivka direction.
Source: SBU hits 2 oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) hit two oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight on May 9, a source privy to the information told the Kyiv Independent.
Source: Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery 1,500 kilometers from border. For the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine attacked facilities in Bashkortostan, some 1,500 kilometers from the country's border, according to the source.
Combat Situation Update
Zelensky: Ukraine will regain battlefield initiative if more weapons arrive. Speaking at a joint news conference in Kyiv with the European Parliament President, Roberta Metsola, Zelensky said he was putting "maximum pressure" on partners to increase supplies.
Russian forces continue their advance in the Avdiivka sector and raised their flag in the settlement of Uman'ske, west of Orlivka. The area south of Semenivka and west of Orlivka are also considered under Russian control.
Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Osman from the 24th Aidar Batallion said that Russian reconaissance groups are working near the Kharkiv border at Vovchansk.
"At night, the enemy conducted powerful artillery training, subversive reconnaissance groups tried to probe the border line and were hit. The main reserves are expected to be deployed in the near future."
Shelling along the border area in Kharkiv is now reported. Russian channels claim Russian troops are attempting to break into Ukraine from several directions. Waiting for more, and confirmed information.
Ukraine defence ministry said on Friday that it has sent military reinforcements to help repel Russian attacks in border areas of the Kharkiv region in the northeast. It added that Russian troops tried to break through with armoured vehicles in the early morning but were beaten back, Reuters reported.
ISW: Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov and Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russian forces seized Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna, and Borisivka (all north to NE of Lyptsi), and Butusov reported that Russian forces have established a foothold in the area 5 km deep and 10 km wide.
ISW assesses with high confidence, based on credible Ukrainian reporting and the preponderance of evidence, that Russian forces have seized Strilecha, Krasne, and Borisivka, but has yet to observe geolocated confirmation of this assessment.
ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Vovchansk but has not observed enough evidence to assess an approximate frontline trace in the immediate area.
In Mariupol, an explosion rang out after which a fire started. Russian sources report that Ukraine used several ATACMS missiles in Mariupol and that there are injuries and wounded.
The New York Times: Construction of storage facilities for russian tactical nuclear weapons found in Belarus,
The construction of the storage facility probably began in March 2023 near the town of Osypovichi, where a military base has been located since Soviet times. It is approximately 180 km north of the border with Ukraine.
The alleged storage site for the nuclear warheads is located in the same city as the Belarusian Iskander missiles, which can be used to launch nuclear or conventional warheads.
The new designs have features unique to nuclear storage facilities within Russia. This place is protected by an air defense system - it appeared no later than mid-2023.
It is reported that Ukrainian UAVs also attacked the Salavatnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Bashkiria in Russia, some 1400km from the Ukrainian border.
In the Kaluga region, the Pervyi Zavod oil refinery was attacked with drones. A large scale fire occurred. Previously this refinery was also subject to an attack in March this year.
Behind the Lines
Ukraine increases restrictions on energy supply for business, industry amid power shortage. Ukrainian businesses and industry will face more restrictions in energy use due to a "significant shortage of electricity," Ukraine's state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo reported on May 10.
ISW: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant to set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
Moldova's two pro-Russian regions, the autonomous region of Gagauzia and the breakaway republic of Transnistria, are home to large Russian-speaking populations, and the Kremlin's shift from allegations about the persecution of Russian speakers to that of Moldovan speakers indicates that the Kremlin is likely trying to justify future Russian aggression in all of Moldova.
The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
Ukraine has created a network of covert factories to relaunch its arms industry. It already produces ammunition, Kozak APC's, Neptune missiles, Stugna-P ATGM and all type of drones in those factories.
Pentagon officials working with Elon Musk’s SpaceX have blunted the Russian military’s unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals on the battlefield in its war with Ukraine, according to the Defense Department’s space policy chief.
Slovak citizens raise funds to buy over 2,500 shells for Ukraine. A Slovak fundraising campaign for the Czech ammunition initiative has raised enough money to buy 2,692 shells for Ukraine, the Czech News Agency reported on May 8.
FT: Sanctions represent a massive threat to air travel in Russia. Aircraft require continuous support and regular software upgrades, as well as a regimen of checks — and the Russian companies are now largely cut off from their suppliers. Airbus, for example, told the FT that “there is no legal way that genuine aircraft parts, documentation and services can get to Russian carriers”.
US includes 37 Chinese entities to trade blacklist due to national security concerns. Apart from 11 companies reportedly connected to the 2023 spy balloon incident, 22 were added to the list because they were linked to China's efforts to improve its quantum technology.
Czechia places Russian GRU general linked to ammunition depot blasts on wanted list. The country's investigators believe that Andrey Averyanov coordinated the supposed Russian sabotage operation in 2014 that led to ammunition depot blasts in the eastern Czech town of Vrbetice, killing two people and causing damages in tens of millions of dollars.
Kyiv Independent: Czech authorities placed Russian GRU Major General Andrey Averyanov on the country's wanted list, Seznam Zpravy reported on May 10.
The country's investigators believe that Averyanov coordinated the supposed Russian sabotage operation in 2014 that led to ammunition depot explosions in the eastern Czech town of Vrbetice, killing two people and causing damages in tens of millions of dollars.
The wanted notice was published on the Czech police's website, indicating that the search was declared on May 7.
Averyanov is the commander of the notorious GRU Unit 29155, associated with assassinations and destabilization operations outside of Russia. The unit was also reportedly behind the poisoning of ex-Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the U.K. in 2018.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia lacks 30 thousand doctors, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin said during a discussion in the lower house of Mikhail Mishustin’s candidacy for the post of head of government. Addressing Mishustin, Volodin noted that hospitals are now being built in the country, but there is no one to work in them.
How long will it take to solve the problem: Volodin said, “a year, two, three, how much?” Based on the scheduled time frame, the authorities will subsequently form “their point of view” on solving this problem, the head of the State Duma summarized.
Me: First of all, there are no hospitals being built. In order to economise, the authorities have eliminated hospitals altogether, and redistributed staff to other hospitals or sent them home. The reorganisation is sold as ‘new hospitals’. Second, those hospitals will never be built nor medical staff trained. The 30,000 number has probably been pulled out of thin air. As are promises as illustrated in the next story about increasing salaries by 2030: it’s not going to happen.
Prime Minister Mishustin: “Doctors, teachers, and other employees of the social sphere, medicine, education, culture and science should receive decent remuneration for their work,” Mishustin emphasized during a discussion of his candidacy for the post of prime minister. The prime minister announced plans to increase the income of employees of small and medium-sized businesses by 2030.
Of all state employees, the lowest salaries are received by junior nurses, housekeepers and orderlies. Last year, their wages were below the average in 64 regions of the Russian Federation.
In April of this year, ambulance workers from 17 regions of Russia recorded a video message to Vladimir Putin, in which they complained about low wages, unfair distribution of social benefits and asked the president to intervene in the situation.
In a vote of 375 in favor, 57 abstaining (all Communist Party members), and zero opposed, the State Duma endorsed Mikhail Mishustin’s reappointment as Russia’s prime minister. Vladimir Putin promptly signed an executive order approving the decision. (Me: there were rumours that Mishustin was dismissed by Putin. Looks like he’s still palatable.)
The sons of two of Vladimir Putin’s closest friends are poised to take senior positions in the next government cabinet, report journalists at Agentstvo. On Friday, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko named Boris Kovalchuk as one of three suggested candidates to lead Russia’s Accounts Chamber.
Boris is the son of Yuri Kovalchuk, whom the media outlet Proekt describes as “essentially the second most influential person in the country.” Meanwhile, Dmitry Patrushev — the son of Russia’s National Security Council secretary — is expected to keep his job as agriculture minister and even get a promotion to deputy prime minister. Agentstvo speculates that these personnel moves could indicate the arrival of a “second generation” of managers close to Putin, i.e. the sons of his oldest allies. (Me: making sure that the power structure remains in tact.)
UK Defence Intelligence: 09 May 2024 is Russia’s Victory Day which commemorates Russia’s victory over Nazism in the ‘Great Patriotic War.’ The major parade took place in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin presiding, following his inauguration on 07 May. Victory day parades were cancelled in 24 cities, primarily those cities in regions that border Ukraine, likely due to poor security. This compares to 21 cancelled parades in 2023.
Bloomberg: Russian tycoons move assets home amid Western sanctions. Increasingly cut off from western banking and financial services, Russia's wealthiest individuals are facing a dilemma when it comes to handing their fortunes to the next generation, according to Bloomberg.
Russian MoD sources indicate several hundred special forces members were redeployed from Ukraine to Libya earlier this year. This move, though unusual, reflects the improved situation for Russian forces in Ukraine and importance of the Libya as a hub for Russians.
Some of Russian soldiers and mercs were transferred to Niger while others remained in Libya awaiting further instructions, according to the @verstka_media source.
You may have hear about the 'Libyan Express' from Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria, to Haftar’s LNA-controlled port of Tobruq.
According to the Russian security source, the soldiers are in Libya unofficially as representatives of a 'PMC', which could be the new African Corp brand carried by the GRU Special Actions Service commanded by General Andrey Averyanov.
Part of the Russian military personnel is responsible for the education and training of Libyan fighters and recruits of the 'African Directorate'. The other part carries out targeted missions such as the transport of military equipment.
Sources indicate the presence of this new contingent on several bases affiliated with the LNA: Kharouba/Al Khadim, Jufra, Tobruk, with two further bases in the south.
Syrian nationals were also detected among Russian individuals on military bases. One of them was recently detected at Al Kharoba airport, which has been used to transport equipment by Russian planes since December 2023.
The Kremlin's objective in Libya is clear: it 'offers ultra-valuable access to the Med, serves as a southern flank to pressure NATO and the EU, and enhances dialogue with other key Arab countries'.
‘Importantly, it also acts as a passageway into Sub-Saharan Africa, offering a strategic path into countries like Sudan, Niger, and beyond’, – says @JMJalel_H, associate fellow at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute. In my opinion, there's little doubt that Russia will use its Libyan stronghold as a lever to control illegal migration to the EU, as it has done before with Poland and Finland.
Allied Support
Lithuania’s foreign minister has raised the prospect of an ad hoc coalition of western countries sending military training personnel into Ukraine backed by ground-based air defence, days after Russia took an increasingly strident tone against what it sees as the threat of deeper western involvement in the war.
After meeting his British counterpart, David Cameron, in London, Gabrielius Landsbergis also backed the British foreign secretary for saying that Ukraine could use British-made weapons against Russia; remarks that alongside Emmanuel Macron refusing to rule out western troops in Ukraine prompted the Kremlin to threaten UK assets and order a tactical nuclear training exercise.
“Our troops have been training Ukrainians in Ukraine before the war, and we’ve been doing that for many years. So returning to this tradition might be quite doable,” Landsbergis said. “This could be a first step in president Macron’s initiative”.
US unveils $400 million defense aid package for Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden on May 10 authorized a $400 million defense aid package for Ukraine, according to a statement on the White House's website.
Sweden allocated €28 million extra in support of Ukraine's defense capabilities. €5 million to the demining coalition, €3 million to the maritime coalition, €10 million for drones and €10 million to the NATO for Ukraine fund.
Germany buys 3 HIMARS systems from US stocks and will donate them to Ukraine. German Defense Minister Pistorius just confirmed during his visit to Washington.
The UK will additionally contribute €23 million to the Ukrainian energy support fund. These funds are aimed at purchasing equipment to repair damaged energy infrastructure, strengthening physical protection and providing backup power, in particular for generators and distributed generation.
Eto Buziashvili: “It's the 3rd day of unimaginable brutality - Titushky and police beating people all around Tbilisi. Reportedly, a driver & his wife were stopped by a police bus traveling in the wrong direction. After the driver pointed out the police's traffic violation, he was severely beaten.”
The Georgian Dream government will say the protesters are ‘terrorist agitators’ so they can justify the use of force against their people—to intimidate them, to beat them, to crush them. It’s all out in the open because the government can. Ivanishvili is backed up by the Russians, the police forces by the FSB.
OCCRP: UPDATE—The editor of our member center @studiomonitori woke up Friday to find her car covered with insulting phrases including "agent sold for money." Journalists & activists in Georgia are under threat amid protests over a proposed foreign agent law.
Anna Gvarashvili: The police broke into Ucha Abashidze’s house. He’s a popular Georgian blogger and commentator on military and security issues. His ex-wife reports that they aren’t allowing him to call a lawyer. No one can enter the building either. The police refuses to answer a question whether they have a warrant to search his house or not. Still no one knows what’s going on.
ALLIES DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS OF HUNGARY’S AFRICAN MISSION—Sczabolcs Panyi
Some months ago, along with Direkt36 and Le Monde, we uncovered that Orbán’s son, Gáspár Orbán, is deeply involved in organizing a strange Hungarian military mission to Chad. Later, I also revealed that Orbán Jr. is secretly helping to set up his father’s new national security advisory team.
I now have new information about Orbán and Orbán Jr.'s peculiar mission in Africa, which has left Hungary's NATO and EU allies puzzled. A Central European government official responsible for security matters told me that, according to their information, the alleged "counter-terrorism and migration-control" objectives of the Chad mission are merely a pretext.
"What we've heard is that the Hungarian government also intends to establish a military intelligence center in Chad, which concerns us. Since Prigozhin's death and the disintegration of the Wagner group, Russia has lost some influence in Africa. We fear that this Hungarian military intelligence center could potentially serve Russian interests, and I suspect Kremlin officials like Sergey Lavrov, Russia's main face in Africa, encouraged the Hungarians," the official explained.
"If Russia escalates the conflict in the coming years, we expect it to be multifaceted, and Africa and migration will likely be involved as well," the official added.
Several NATO and EU representatives with whom I've spoken emphasized that the planned Hungarian mission is neither affiliated with NATO/EU nor the UN and wasn't coordinated within the NATO alliance.
When I asked a NATO official knowledgeable about Russian affairs, they said, "It's definitely an unusual mission that doesn't serve any Hungarian interests, unless it's a scheme for some oligarch friend to profit and pay Putin back. Otherwise, it's a complete waste of resources and needlessly dangerous."
Despite the deteriorating security situation in Chad, a senior EU diplomat stationed in Budapest noted that Hungarian government contacts remain fully committed to deploying 200 soldiers to Chad.
I can confirm the findings for Italy. Ever been invited to a Sunday family lunch?
This is perfect. At the start of the full-scale invasion, my Dad called me to tell me he had ‘discovered’ some fantastic YouTube channels that were his go-to purveyors of ‘facts’ about the war. I even asked Eto Buziashvili what I could do to steer him to better sources of information. So check out our interview with Eto on your preferred podcast platform.
On a more important note, Alexander Khara pointed out that “the best-crafted fake news touches upon prejudices, beliefs and fears that already exist in the target audience's minds.” It’s the reason why we need to identify our own biases and deal with them.
